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By Natalia Gurushina, Chief Economist, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy Brazil maintained the same pace of rate hikes (75bps) and guidance. Turkey remained on hold with a seemingly hawkish statement – but is it just lip service? “More of the same” – The Brazilian central bank continued to frontload rate hikes, maintaining the same pace (75bps), same guidance (75bps), and the same reasoning (“partial normalization”). A less uncertain fiscal backdrop eased pressure on the central bank to act more aggressively in the near term. However, the real policy rate remains deeply negative (see chart below) – not the best setup against the backdrop of rising inflation.  The emerging narrative is that Brazil is on the road to redemption policy-wise – the central bank’s measured tightening would fit right in.

Czech republicUnited statesNatalia gurushinaMorgan stanley capital internationalVaneck researchJp morganChicago board options exchangeInstitute for supply managementChief economistEmerging markets fixed incomeReal policy rate is still deeplyPurchasing manager indexSupply managementConsumer price indexProducer price indexPersonal consumption expenditures price index