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May 22, 2024
Four years ago, the real estate industry was defined by excess inventory, over leveraged balance sheets and weak demand. Today, a housing project getting launched is getting sold within a few days. The average prices on a per square ft basis have inched upward very sharply in the last one year and still there is no dearth of demand. Now the question is whether this kind of sharp rise in demand is having an impact only on large players or also on mid-sized companies which are focussed in a region...
May 22, 2024
Knowing risks and managing those risks are two different things. Knowing risk is easy, everyone knows that small cap stocks are probably the riskiest part of the stock market. but managing the risk is more complicated than it appears. Why are we bringing this up at this point of time ? Because the risk on trade which has been in place in the Indian equity market , got a significant boost when state elections results indicated higher probability of the present central government coming back to p...
May 22, 2024
Recently the finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman spoke about the risk of unchecked explosion of future and option trading. Before that, there was a SEBI study, which mentioned that 90 % of the individuals who trade in future and options ( F&O) end up losing money; only 10% are able to make profit. But there is another side to the story. First is that trade volumes in this segment are only going to rise. Second, what is the common between both the losers and winners? They both brokerage to t...
May 21, 2024
While it might be a bit early to say, but the way things have panned in the last couple of weeks, it is clear that bulls are not in any mood to leave the street. At the same time bears are also clear they will wait and on sidelines till election results. Two things one should remember at this point of intersection which rarely comes, that finally it is the business and the management which matters. Probably management of the large cap companies have that in abundance for two things, manage diff...
May 21, 2024
At this point of time when the street is juggling with its own fear and anxiety and waiting for the election results, the mid-caps segment of the market is witnessing some profit booking/ rational shifting/ consolidation. A part of that is happening because of the fact that the street is reacting and adjusting to Q4 numbers. The way stocks are moving, there is no one trend in mid-cap space. So there are many sub segments which are getting formed in mid-cap space and given the mix of head and tai...
May 21, 2024
While every sector has witnessed a re-rating in the last couple of years. The re-rating can be due to two reasons. whether headwinds have gone away because of government policy push and clean up or the sector has recovered due cyclical reasons. In the case of PSU banks,which have seen strong re-rating in the last one year, there is a mix of both reasons. The government cleaned up and strengthened the regulatory system. Also that overall economic growth has seen a sharp recovery which has helped ...
May 20, 2024
It is after a long period of time that both bulls and bears are visible on the street at the same time and waiting to make the next move. A strong directional move will only come after election results. Before that it is very likely that the market would stay in range bound mode. During this period it would be better to stay with selected stocks, have at your portfolio and do a rejig with focus on fundamentals of the sector and the stocks. These selected stocks depict a strong upward trajectory ...
May 20, 2024
When GST was introduced, there was an argument on the street about business shifting from unorganized to organized sector. There were some businesses, where unorganized players were at an advantage because of the fact that they were able to evade taxes and stay competitive. Now that GST has been implemented some sectors have actually seen that advantage due to tax arbitrage going away. This has led to a situation where some companies which had strong brands gained market share. Especially in ind...
May 19, 2024
Whether its institutional or retail investors, the desire to find the next multibagger is always high. But it is not easy to find multibagger stocks for multiple reasons. In the last 30 yearsonly two or three sectors have thrown up multibaggers -- IT, pharma and some engineering or industrial segments. Now the auto and auto ancillary sectors are transforming. From next Sunday onward, we take a deep dive into individual auto ancillary companies which have either transformed due to EV space or ar...
May 19, 2024
1994 to 2024 is a difference of 30 years, but there is one thing which has remained constant, advice to move to defensive stocks when markets are volatile or there is an event risk. Four questions need to be asked; first, what is a defensive stock? Second, is a stock which was considered a defensive in 1994 when the Indian economy was just opening, still a defensive stock in 2024 ? Third, should there be a new definition of defensive stock in 2024 ? Last but not the least, what are the new defe...