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History of voting. and caucuses are tough to get people to show up at. you have to stick it out for an evening. these things can sometimes last hours and hours and hours. sometimes people come and theyre not willing to stick it out. so we dont really know. history as a guide suggests its not particularly likely. and so i think thats why most of the campaigns would use likely voter sample that is heavy on people that have a history of actually showing up. >> donna, does that make sense to you? on...

Megyn. the polling theory of practice were developed in a nation that had universal land line telephones in a population that answered the phone. we dont live in such a nation anymore about a third of the americans are cell phone only households. thats a big change. the pollsters are trying to accommodate that and trying to reach cell phone only households. but they have difficulty doing so. its expensive. and the tendency may be to cut corners and to have a loose the screen in some of these sta...

One thing i compare the election to is 2004. not just because of the characters involves or whatever you think, but the polls track closely. on one issue, if you look at the polls eight years ago, bush and kerry were tied after two debates. the big difference was that john kerry actually was behind when it came to registered voters. this president is way ahead compared to where john kerry was. the likely voter sample is working against this president. we can debate how thats done, but it does su...

The big difference was that john kerry actually was behind when it came to registered voters. this president is way ahead compared to where john kerry was. the likely voter sample is working against this president. we can debate how thats done, but it does suggest that enthusiasm is a significant problem for him. thats where a strong debate performance kicks in. >> ironically in 04, it was ohio. it is ohio again. how aggressive does the president need to be on mitt romney in this town hall-style...

It does seem as if the likely voter sample was more favorable to the democrats than the registered voter sample. the likely voter sample more favorable to the president than voters. what did you learn from that going through the probability scale. >> just two points to be said. the president isnt over 50, and thats an important political process. trying to kick this up just a few more points. generally well received and the enthusiasm numbers slightly favoring romney than obama. but not in the k...

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Guys probably already know. a like lib voter as opposed to a registered voter who is a registered voter when asked from one to ten are you likely to vod, nine or ten. second question did you vote in 2010 or 2008, if you say yes to either of those three -- two out of those three, you are considered a likely voter. >> thats right. >> if you just voted in 08 and 10, thats good enough. if you voted in 08 but you say your chances are 9 to 10 -- between 1 and 10, then youre a likely voter. what do you...

Out there. with registered voters, you dont know what a voter sample looks like six months out. >> you can do all adults, you can do registered voters, which is helpful, but the best poll is likely voters. >> not now, because you have people who are going to vote who wont necessarily say theyre ready to vote. theyre not paying attention. >> cwhen can we get a look at likely voters? >> labor day. >> traditionally you switch over to likely voters after labor day. >> some people believe you get a g...