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JOLTS (job opening data) had a massive surprise, three standard deviations below consensus estimates, the driving job openings to unemployed workers ratio back to pre-pandemic levels.

The highlight of last week was a showdown between two of the major forces in the markets: AI earnings vs. economic data.

Last week was another week of records for major equity indices: The S&P500 broke to new highs; the DJIA breached 40,000.

Last week was central bank week, with major news from U.S. and Japanese policy makers.

A week ago, we commented in Macro Thoughts to expect more volatility in March. Earnings season is drawing to a close.

We are in a seasonally challenging period for the markets, with August through October, historically providing lower returns than average months.

Based on current higher rates, what we’re seeing resembles indigestion when realities are different than the consensus view.

On balance, the disinflationary trends continued, and the economy is on track to grow significantly above potential.

Last week was Super Bowl week for economists, with fresh guidance from the Fed, ECB, BoJ, as well as data releases on GDP and inflation.

The equity markets are looking for a continuation of what I’ve recently called the plotline: declining inflation and a tightening of the labor market.