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FX Year Ahead 2024: As the Race to Cut Begins, Which Currency Will Come Out the Winner?

After two consecutive years of gains, a correction in the mighty US dollar was well overdue in 2023. The greenback started the year being taunted by the persistent expectations of a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve. But those bearish forecasts have not fully materialized as the dollar is on track to finish the year virtually unchanged. Even now, when there is a high probability that a Fed rate cut is just months away, plotting a downwards path may not be very straightforward for the bears.
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Will Fed take a break from its aggressive monetary-policy tightening?

The US Federal Reserve Board will meet again on September 20-21, and while most analysts anticipate another big interest-rate hike, there is a strong argument for the Fed to take a break from its aggressive monetary-policy tightening. While its rate hikes so far have slowed the economy โ€” most obviously the housing sector โ€” their impact on inflation is far less certain.
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