His nine Year Prison Sentence is lowered is denounced the decision as a politically driven farce they plan another appeal this time in the Supreme Court as the headline is the news continues here on aljazeera right after inside story next. Is the president of egypt scared of the competition. Is the latest contender forced out of the race for the president ial election in la the armys chief of song is under arrest and the former Prime Minister has also been forced to drop out this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im laura kyle it doesnt look like many or should that be any challenges are going to make it to polling day for the president ial election in egypt voting in march will be the second sense of will fattah elsisi deposed president Mohamed Morsy five years ago critics say the election is turning into a false one minute you need a scene as a leading contender to replace sisi is out of the race sami annan was arrested by soldiers on choose day only come on to say the former army chief is soft broke the law by not getting permission to declare his candidacy Spokesman Says his arrest means the state doesnt really want elections a tool well another comes as out of the running is ahmed shafik the former Prime Minister and air force chief announced his challenge in november but withdrew earlier this month he said he had reconsidered and didnt think he was the best person to run the country the nephew of late president also out hes refused to run them in what he called an environment of fear surrounding the election. Its a far cry from the egyptian revolution seven years ago then the streets of cairo are filled with hopes for change and democracy millions protested against poverty unemployment and corruption president Hosni Mubarak was overthrown after nearly thirty years in power his replacement in june two thousand and twelve was egypts first democratically elected president Mohamed Morsi but he was deposed just past his first year in the job as the army again demonstrated its power more protests followed and morsi is Muslim Brotherhood supporters were banned a crackdown which followed saw hundreds killed thousands arrested and morsi sentenced to death the last president ial election was in two thousand and fourteen former army general Abdel Fattah Elsisi won ninety seven percent of the vote well lets bring in our guests now and joining us from egypts capital cairo is timothy called us hes a nonresident fellow at the institute for middle east policy in berlin we have a Senior Research over the center for middle eastern and north african politics with Free University of berlin is also the author of the book the political economy of egypt under sisi and finally dr. Political analyst and author who specializes in egypt domestic policy a very warm welcome to all of you a topic if i could start with you why was sami and an arrest. I believe it is clear that he broke the rules and regulations of the Egyptian Military and as many knows in military systems all over the wall of the rules and regulations are usually and typically very strict so anyone who will break it will have the same consequence like mr ahmed saw for example who was it he was in the military and he did the same and he was in trouble saw its i think the blame him comes to mr annan why he didnt take the permission first. So i see there is no other result ok maybe there might be as a lot of minor things but this is a mystery of it doesnt not set off alarm bells for you i mean this is another strong contender disqualified from the race it doesnt it doesnt sound normal because this is uncommon situation but in both situation the same process happened someone from the military breaking the rules for example and he is that punished by the rules of the military itself but i think you are this point may be valid there that is trouble if mr guinea and i for example or a doctor has him who are with mr i learned in the group of all who put themselves up for the egyptian people to choose a president who was and if one of them applied with his name as a civilian and then a problem happened to him then we can say that is intentional desire to stop any candidate but we have seen khaled ali competing and mr allen is outlawed because he competed but because he broke the basic rule capability in this situation tim if you agree with that is he out because hes broken the rules. I believe thats what the government like to say look i think the reality is that to say there are other minor issues about why and then was allowed to run is really to be very disingenuous about the situation how much of deep had already previously run for president and he was held for a month in a hotel until he decided that he was no longer well suited to run until he made that concession to the government. With respect to. Hes complained about harassment of his campaign and of people trying to register not being allowed to endorse his candidacy and the nephew of the former president or so that has also complained about the undemocratic environment that he was having to deal with the reality is that candidates regardless of whether or not theyre in the military formally or not have not been able to run unimpeded in this election and its quite clear that this government is not terribly interested in allowing that to happen beyond that its not clear and were been allowed to get the permission that mr duffy is this going describing and he did in his statement say that he was waiting and and for his nomination to go forward pending the approval of the military he acknowledged the regulations he didnt say that they were unjust or unfair he was waiting for the military to give him the permission as as the law does prescribe ok i think given that sammy and i would have known the risks of breaking the rules of running for president say without taking all the boxes why does he even data do say. Well we have to be clear that technically speaking the are known did not break any rules he did not nominate himself in fact the time for the official nominations is not even open yet what he did was that he declared his intention to run once he got all the necessary permissions from the military so saying that he broke the rules technically and legally speaking this is incorrect he did not break any rules of course he was aware of the of the of the risks and this leads me to another problem and its really very difficult to discuss it its more like a black box which is basically the splits within the military it could be the case that annan was hoping that he could count on some kind of support from within the military establishment we shouldnt forget that a few days ago presidencies see the move the head of general intelligence which was widely viewed as a main competitor to the military intelligence from which c. C. Hailed so it could be the case that our nan was counting on some kind of support either from general intelligence of from other centers or blocs inside the army but apparently the more those faster managed to. Take out this kind of potential support and left basically left unknown out in the cold on his own at all because thats something that you can believe because were seeing now two former military men putting their kansass forward suggesting that they do have military backing. Now i see in theory this can be right but the reality is that we have not seen any Division Within the military or have not seen a single unit in the military going to support time and for example or a group of. People who works in the military who declare that they are fully behind the line and all of mr ahmed one saw for example saw i think in theory anything is possible but the reality on the ground is clearly showing that they dont have really that level of support that they would expect or maybe they expected they would have but they didnt if they had we have we would have seen even a small example or samples of support coming from here and there within the military but this never happened ok so they are scared perhaps is sisi facing a candidate with a military background. I dont think that there is any fear on the part of c. C. In terms of losing an election they are sufficiently trolled the situation prevent that and there are even a crumb trail situation it appears to prevent the candidacy of anyone else for that matter. I think that it the concern with that and then it would shift the was that sustained criticism for months during a campaign of c c n n and i meant also indicated that he was going to end to criticize the outsized role of the military in politics and perhaps even the economy. As he indicated in his statement when he was first. Announcing his intention to run these sorts of things could affect the credibility in the popularity of c. C. In the military more broadly and could do some damage but the reality is that the regime has consolidated power quite quite effectively and and we saw that with how decisively and they responded to an ends announcement and you know in seventy two hours he was arrested so i think suspicions that there was a lot of division in the military are probably more Wishful Thinking than reality. And while there may be some of course that i mean any political system is more complex than a unified voice there are clearly not enough to facilitate any serious challenge to to see ok lets take a look at who is still in the race and weve got to have it out i think you mentioned before hes a leftist lawyer and weve got more ta da man so right wing m. P. Who is still trying to drum up support to get the nominations do you see these two men staying in the race to the end of the law to lodge. Its not clear the monsoor is. I dont take him seriously as a contender talent alley is a more is a different story helen dalley and his campaign they say that they intend to remain in the race until the end but there is a court case against khaled ali and the verdict is due to weeks before the elections and hes accused of making an indecent juster in public if there is a verdict against him then automatically he would be disqualified from running until now it seems that remaining in the race as far as khaled ali is concerned is actually in. Is good for is definitely good for the for the regime it would seem odd that sisi would run unopposed in the elections so i suspect that that ali will continue and will continue to run until the end theres a very little chance of course that he would win but at least he would give the appearance that there has been a real electoral competition would you agree with that to think that he needs to keep some people in the race to legitimize the. Presence of some people in the wrists is important because it gives the impression that there is some form of choice. But are you dont think c. C. Will do it intentionally there are people who are already he wants to join and they mentioned earlier. Judge his vision in a doctor has a little world with sammy and when when as as a main people be beside him why not one of them go forward the end put his name for the elections for example so i think c. C. Is would like to see a competition in my opinion he would like to see a competition because he north at the street level and ordinary people many of them really are our supporter and the main factor in my view that we would be a really warrior for a c. C. Is if his supporters winter to the to the ballot or not because there are many people who are relatively passive they may show support or have support for someone but they dont go to two to do the effort to go to the election bout a ballot why is a competitors of a c. C. More watch more organized as groups if they are the dictated behind someone they will go in masses behind him so i think the main challenge in the next stage is to to see the supporters of assisi going to the streets to the ballot to put their vote and this what he asked them to do he knows that he will get the majority of the winter to the ballot box ok ill tell you that first thats true isnt a key indicator of support for c. C. Will be turnout in this election the last one in two thousand and fourteen is forty seven percent absolute tivoli whats the mood on the street is there much excitement for this vote and march. No i dont think it was really i dont think a lot of people are terribly interested i mean the outcome is already. And i would agree with defeat that challenge for c. C. Is to have a remotely credible turnout given that everybody already knows the results and there isnt really much incentive to bother voting given that you know that reality. The removal of so many of the candidates from the race all only further discourages participation as it becomes more transparent what a sham the whole process is. Callid alis Campaign Says that theyre waiting theyre going to hold a press conference later today to this to determine whether or not they will continue in the race given whats happened without end so they arent fully decided on that. I think that the dilemma for them is that while on one level yes increasing turnout help c. C. And having a person the race helps e. C. But at the same time to what extent its possible theyd like to explore as a little public space has to be made available for this campaign to happen and it gives them an opportunity to. Criticize the president criticize a political situation in a way that theyre rarely offered given the amount of repression that weve seen in the last two years so theyre kind of struggling to balance those those different variables to make the decision about what is best for the opposition and for the Democracy Movement in egypt at large ok act with a second and he wanted to kinkos to take a little look at his wacko and he wants to improve the economy and he wanted to make egypt more secure how does he score on those fronts. I think its cause badly on the one hand initiated some necessary reforms but the timing of these reforms and the sequencing of them have left many egyptians feeling the hardship of high prices soaring inflation and lack of Economic Opportunities on the other hand many egyptians are having grievances. Regarding the way the c. C. For example has dealt with with the issue of iran and so on a fear to red sea islands that he handed over to saudi arabia thus relinquishing egyptian sovereignty over there i think the turning point in terms of the level of support for him also he doesnt seem to be very successful in managing the conflict with the opiah over the danda this europeans are building which many egyptians fear is going to reduce the share of the i water that egypt receives on the whole yes he managed to bring back a sense of Security Industry but again here its not clear story of success we still see. Serious attacks against the military in particular in sinai the security situation there is really very precarious and weve also seen a lot of terrorist attacks in them on the mainland especially against copts and the he managed to achieve the security through an incredible level of oppression thousands in prison its also not clear how there can be security and sustainable sense of security in egypt when right now it seems that any chance of a peaceful transition into democracy or a peaceful. Rotation of power this is somehow. Not going to happen anytime soon. So opening the door to any chance of a peaceful transition of power this in itself is a very worrying fact and might even might reduce the level of security in the country in the long run i thought i think when you when you hear that when you hear that raechel i mean its not a particularly good one hes got declining support in the country isnt that really why hes so against having any serious challenger in this election. As i mentioned i dont see him again as having people challenging him there are already some people and if i landed it correctly by putting some civilian like a sham get in or has a instead of him the problem or they wouldnt have seen this problem but i think i. See credibility came from the feel of security that many egyptians are talking about it a few years ago they were really in trouble now many egyptians feel more secure and all saw i think the pain of changing that but as a plan for the subsidies are subsidies for for electricity and for for gas has affected their many people but there are many people also can understand this is a crucial step towards supporting the more poor people instead of giving more subsidy to the wealthy who are using more electricity and more gas as so i think the situation is i cant say its everything is perfect but i can see egyptians and those there that there many of the problems like the live in it are not the outcome of the presidency in fact it was a community of problems coming from nasser of time to president s are there to mubarak and then l. C. C. Care is all the burden saw he is now trying to solve the problems and its he doesnt have a measure quander to want to just change things in day and night it take time but i think many believe that it is in the right direction if you just get a response of that the gypsies generally believe that the country is moving in the direct direction that since he is a solver of problems are they willing to forgive all the toughest territory measures that have been put in place. This is really a mixed bag here so i mean undoubtedly the population is suffering under the Economic Conditions that are outlined with the high rates of inflation subsidy reduction obvious increase in costs for big. Well not only for the for energy but also for for the knock on effect of inflation that adds to to the equation there are people who do as as hamad pointed out except that this difficulty is part of a Long Term Strategy that may be necessary but i mean its point on the reduction of Energy Subsidies in the in the hope to increase support for the poor is the radically correct but in practice its been quite limited in terms of how its been rolled out. The cattle Karama Program that is part of the governments efforts give cash to those most needy in the country is only affecting a certain about effecting one half million families and the reality is that nearly thirty Million People are officially below the poverty line in egypt and so getting the assistance necessary to so many of the people who are being affected negatively by these policies is a challenge the government has not been able to sue to overcome and so the subsidies are being removed now and the aid that they are hoping to