A small region in somalia head to the polls and the results could have huge consequences for the horn of africa kenya ethiopia. Just influence over job land so why is it so important and what i say this is inside story. Welcome to the program. A small region in somalia is at the center of a growing power struggle in east africa the people of autonomy us federal state and will choose their president on thursday somebody has neighbor has. A job and ends main city is a target of attacks by the. 26 people died in a Hotel Assault last month job boards as kenya which has soldiers there as part of the African Unions Mission against. Central government wants more control over the region and warns it will not recognize the election when. Lets have a look jubilant there thomas region in Southern Somalia was announced in 2010 and formalized the following year the territory consists of the ghetto lower job and middle job or provinces the largest city is my own controlled till it was driven out into a 1012. 00 but the armed group is still active in many areas juba lands president maduro he was 1st elected in 2013 by clans elders and politicians mahdavi is a key ally of kenya while the federal government immigrant issue is getting closer to thier. Lets bring in our guests here in the studio our fiance alamy professor of International Relations of the Thai University in ala we via Skype Matt Bryden chairman of the sun Research Institute and former coordinator for the u. N. Monitoring group on somalia and at area and in london jamal us man an Award Winning journalist welcome to the program i think this is an election in of be region. In somalia but yet it has become a hot topic why is that well i think lets start within the context so the least we understand whats going on there is a legal ambiguity within the summary constitution and therefore this debate is more or less about the essence of the state. Whether what it will be is it further all confederal you literally state this debate is now being played in my own now thats one level and the other level is that its mistrust between the regional leaders and the National Leaders socalled the mogadishu and this is largely based on the power struggle which has been going on for quite some time this again manifested itself in numerous ways not only in jubilant but also in other parts and many believe the so mali government in will be different is trying to impose central system in the country particularly taking note of what have been by the door and other maybe joe her in and also in government these are the i mean the background and the final thing perhaps and the final main point is that the regional countries particularly the neighboring countries have also their own interests and playing their proxies do was talk about the regional implications not each time you have elections in parts of somalia then you have a great deal of anxiety about whats happening the key players and what could happen next is it bringing about the need to see the whole political system in somalia. I think that thats a key question and i agree with professor helmeted this is really this issue in his mind was about the essence of the somali state. But in certain areas theres more ambiguity than in others in the case of state elections the constitution assigns the responsibility for the establishment of state for provincial executives and legislatures to the states themselves it doesnt award the federal government any role and so what is really creating the tension around the case myra lection and the the other processes that professor only referred to is that the federal government is trying to impose itself and it is arrogating to itself powers over the way elections take place in different parts of the country that it doesnt actually have then building on that. As professor only said regional powers are aligning themselves i need the federal of a state governments and so this issue is taking on proportions that go far beyond a normal somalis state electoral process jamal one of the reasons why the government will go this year seems to be much concerned about the elections in juba land is the fact that it could further pave the way for job land to break away from the center lies government which which seems to be a genuine concern by the government. Yes i would agree with the previous speakers matt and a few other the somalis are figuring out which political system they take this mistrust between the leaders but there is also another important issue which is so malis as a society where we are a clam based society and we have been fighting each other for the past 30 years for domination every clan wants to dominate other clans and i would say that the president for a module is abusing the office of the president to empower his clan and what he literally once is through his clan to dominate jubelin and kissed my ear and that is not something somalis usually like to talk about but the reality is we can talk about policies but for marginal us the interest of his clan apart not the interest of the somali nation and i think that is another issue which we have to tell our audience i feel youve heard what jamal has just said which is the the clan connections which happen to be the decisive factor in this elections. For example is comes from god in for you is from the money hand those clan connections or affiliations are 1. 00 of the reasons why somalia disintegrated in 1991 and continues to face the same problems. Well i have to say that. Even though planned system is a reality within the somatic context not one of the people who use our narrative to explain every conflict i think that our level is of times the individual ambitions override even the cologne interests and this and that anybody who is in will be different was trying to impose itself in other parts of the country this has been happening even before this before the civil war during hamotzi about it and also sheriff did not. Present sheriff also president has not agree with the way jubilant or other places were also being stubborn so when you look at it this is a debate between centralism. More or less a practice based on confederacy and to some extent to some after one of the regions want to see it from the rest so i come back to the previous point where basically its about the essence of the somali state we go for a comfort the ration where literally for. Them as we call it or. To land in other regions more or less operating as though they are independent states or socalled i mean engaging other countries or denying the Central Government to come so this is a real debate that has been going on for some time prior to for my job and i think it will go on even after we can just to book the command in aspect of it. This is a political situation all of her political motivation and i would say that i mean you have badawi who is now the frontrunner in the election in. 3 other. Key candidates also in the in the election however was quite interesting is that suddenly youre having the regional players just think for influence the kenyans seem to be really pro but the government in this just seems to be favorite other candidates why is this happening. Well this is a really interesting point because juba land was established almost as a joint initiative of ethiopia and kenya working together supporting the donors forces to force alshabaab out of the port city to smile and until a year ago or so ethiopia and kenya saw eye to eye and were close allies not only in juba land but also in their support to the state building process in somalia but since the arrival in power in ethiopia Prime Minister earlier adamant he has reversed ethiopias longstanding policy of support for a more decentralized federal structure and has a graceful leadership in mogadishu and so what has happened is that suddenly kenya finds itself supporting the doorway as it always has since the beginning or at least the electoral process thats been organized under it over its auspices while ethiopia seems to have aligned itself with mogadishu not not even not in a subtle way but in a way that it has also signaled that it will not recognize the outcome of the elections and that madonna they must be removed by any means possible and so this has put ethiopia kenya not only at odds politically but as recently as yesterday we saw their forces you know stand of this myrick war which could easily have degenerated into violence between 2 countries that are longstanding neighbors out somalia said that this is the right of the people in general and to pursue their political ambitions but when you look at. The latest developments the different candidates vying for bigger influence backed by Different Countries is this a scenario where we are most likely going to end up having proxies fighting on behalf of other regional players enjoyed by land im sure there will be some proxies but i have been going back and forth to kiss my your this year and in fact i was there last month filming a documentary and i think the jubilant administration is powerful they have a Strong Military there would be challenges they would face challenges but i think they would overcome with the support of. Obviously and i think we have to remind ourselves some ollies of those that have been fighting for many years we are desperate for peace. But there will be and hes got his sort of administration have brought peace and kiss my you has been the most peaceful city in southern and central somalia so you would ask yourself why would you destroy this peace you can solve this issue through the ballot we can solve this issue through negotiations but why would the son throw government led by for margerys using could be an soldiers to cause havoc and conflict as matt said yesterday there was a standoff between the serbian some of the kenyans and the conflict could erupt but that is the question we need peace and why is a very peaceful city and elections so far going going according to plan so why would you do this just for the sake of a more i would like just to further explain this to our International Audience whats the endgame here for the people in jubilant do they want to take this on a as an opportunity to consider date their political gains and say in the future we would like to have an independent state of our own. I dont think that the people in japan and want an independent state i think the other busy way and others are pro unionists they want united somalia in fact but i think their their issue is the issue they have is with the Central Government by for much but if another leader comes or changes hands and he i remember he had issues with the previous leader. At the beginning but after 2 years they became very close and they were working together very closely so i think it comes down to the relationship between the leaders and what interests each lead us and what is trying to achieve a fair youve heard what the its about basically saying that the problem lies in the Central Government based in mogadishu which wants to just continue its. Control over the political establishment in all somalia irrespective of the ambitions of the different groups across the country well that is true and i agree with the view that the Central Government has been trying to protect our power that it doesnt have im in there its all doing these things even though its not Strong Enough to do that because if it can then i mean. I mean everything could have be settled by force but they cannot do it therefore the only other option for any government in with is to know who treat its way these are the only 2 ways either in the world should or you i mean military victory these are the 2 ways that conflicts end and at the moment what it seems is that. It is not Strong Enough yet it does not want to lose share with others and thats for me a contradiction. Honestly speaking even though i am largely in in the view of decentralized unitary political these and realize you have to be a system i think what from my jaw the practice that we have seen in other states. Is not helping what happened in by the door with. In other cities are not helping at all but that said when you look at the practice of the Regional Government as well or leaders. His own source im alone at least wants to see it but others like. Government or whatever you they also have been pursuing the practice was. More or less not suspicious but more than which is like they were engaging in so many areas of the or so many functions. That might belong to the Central Government and this is and here is a very interesting actually. Dichotomy ok. Is it just that the Central Government is trying to create a uniter system maybe thats what for much is thinking of and that is there is evidence for that but the other sides not innocent in this case because they are acting as though they are independent states ok and i think there are so many i mean examples that we can give this conversation forward not doesnt this look a little bit opac to you in a way that were talking about elections in jubilant but theres absolutely no definition about what kind of political establishment you want to have in across the country so who is to blame the somalis themselves the political. Leadership or the international community. I think in this case the blame lies very much with the leadership in mogadishu. As as apiary said we have a federal constitution and but its incomplete and what the constitution the provisional constitution says. Which means we essentially have a provisional government is that the powers that are undefined the powers between the federal leadership in the states issues like revenue collection and resource Natural Resource ownership and management these are not to be negotiated between the federal states and the federal government itself in mogadishu and the last president set up something called the National Leaders forum where he invited the state president s to the table to start discussions about all of these pending issues that the constitution leaves on result but this president has. Disbanded the National Leadership forum and as he has said has not shown any real information to negotiation it seems just to be trying to impose its feet at by using 3rd parties like ethiopia or using donor countries who provided money to do its bidding its a sort of weaponize ing of its juridical sovereignty to dominate the federal Member States so i think the real issue of yours that either president from agilent his team become the conveners in chief and they bring the leaders together and say look lets talk and we might even talk about going to a federal system a centralized who had decentralized unitary system rather than a federal one and if thats what form lodges agenda really is or a farm manager will probably leave office in a year from having accomplished virtually nothing except having stalemated the state building process and thats some of the worst and. Jamal the supporters a loyalist of mahdavi see him as the man who has brought stability to the land and defeated the. Dont you see this as an exaggeration because the shabaab remain extremely powerful in huge areas across the country it is true i mean the us about control about 5470 kilometers outside kismayo but in case mind you and where the jubilant forces are in control apart from the attack that happened last month because my view has been very peaceful nothing has happened in the past few years except the others that i visited kissed my your this year its very peaceful city and it has been very peaceful for several years and i think we have to understand from a local somali perspective we in the diaspora often talk about policies but for the local people all the case about peace and stability but they dont really care who brings that peace and security and kismayo is one of those cities that changed hands many times during the civil war and all the major clans are vying for control of kiss my a so it was a test case for ahmed middle bit but he has managed to somehow unite people in kiss my hand bring peace and security so in case my view is hed as far as i have seen hes very popular with the local people because they might not agree with certain things he does but at least it brought peace and security lets if the Central Government that is trying to overthrow him and bring someone in his play lists talk about the regional implications fairly kenya now is staunchly supportive of. However why are they involved is it because they would like to see jubilant as a buffer zone against a suburban or is it more to do with the border dispute in the 100000 kilometer square which is of the coast of the indian ocean well you actually want to use it as many leverage is among them is socalled the jubilant as a buffer zone and when you when this maritime dispute came up one of the leverage is that it actually used was the stock in the job a land issue but its not the only one i would say all in all there are about 500000 refugees a Large CommunityBusiness Community in kenya and of course other other leverage is that now it enjoys more than mogadishu but that also how did mogadishu in the sense that they played the nationalist the card by saying that oh you know what this is also learned because my just belongs to part is part of some areas so that has been the case for now regionally though its not only mogadishu ferrous is the kenya also you thought is involved here and this time is strangely enough that even though for a module has been using this current for in a successful way he is using ethiopia is not going to help him ok hes too broad and exactly thats why i believe its president who lost the power and i think hes not very well advised in just only because of this issue when it comes to this issue matt why would the european government which in the past with the kenyans central inside. Somalia disagree with the kenyans and decided to support a new candidate why would a country take such massive. Gumble that could backfire in jubilant i think thats very hard to explain ethiopias policy on somalia has been consistent for the better part of 3 decades and this trip this 180. 00 degree switc