A safe where israel can continue targeting with impunity ok zain well talk to you again in the coming couple of hours i suspect the show in the meantime thanks very much lets get more now by talking to the middle east analysts come all was nate who was in beirut kemal was me welcome to aljazeera. Breakdown of whats going on right now. Basically. Has been known since the beginning of targeting. The fight of hezbollah in syria this will be this will not go without retaliation. Retaliation is to reinforce the ability in the border not to give israel a free hand to attack lebanon any time the promise came from hezbollah and hezbollah deliver on that promise i think we can we can leave it there or the israeli now they can act elated but really today it is in the hand of the israeli where they want to take it i think if they want to take it very far i think hezbollah is ready to take it very far. He has been making all the preparation for any retaliation. Everybody knows that. Probably people who follow that. Back would happen any minute and it did happen today. And i think now the israeli have been chanting out there. Probably. A lot backgame from but 3 im afraid this is can go beyond those. Adjacent. Any mistake in the confrontation right now this is will take us to 2006 a place that we shouldnt be there very briefly are we saying that israel was always going to react in this way and are we saying that when house run. Goes on his t. V. Channel because thats in effect what it is he knew israel knew it was going to react in this way. Well we dont know is there any kind of react if this is going to be adjacent to the border we have the operation of hezbollah went after the israeli its going to be controlled constrained to certain area or its going to be expanding to other areas we all know that israel has one of the best air force in the wont they have a lot of heat but on the other hand hezbollah has a very precise missile all it take one. Air force strike and a few missiles and we have a war i think right now basically what we have to see. How this can my and standing is can go either way just a little miscalculation. Can take us into a very dangerous world im watching. Bombs on t. V. Because now everything is transferred through satellite. And through reality. We have to wait and see but i think this can be stopped without further escalation kemal was me on the line for us to beirut thank you very much lets bring in senior political analyst Marwan Bashara who joins us from london or not as the case may be oh i can see that hes back perhaps well try and establish communications with mom and mom in his speech. Not sure if youre hearing me or not but ill ask you the question anyway what do you think is really going on hear hear. Well there is no surprise because last week today there was that this collation of course on the part of israel starting with some bombing in iraq against the Popular Mobilization as weve heard from senator for followed by immediately after bombings in syria followed once again a few hours later of bombings and in lebanon so clearly israel has expanded its area of operation against irans our allies and irans projection of power in in the near east including iraq syria and lebanon it also broke what seems to be an understanding over a how or where to fight against hezbollah in lebanon by as again we heard earlier by bombing the southern suburb of beirut so once again theres no surprise that theres a bit of an escalation now because they hezbollah leaders and the israelis have been warning against escalation the big question is whether this will continue to be bomb and counter bomb or whether this would be to war or busy not the war between hezbollah and israel and there are a number of reasons why both parties would not be interested in war and also a couple of reasons why they would be interested in at least testing that boundaries of how far they can go in order to squeeze the other and what weve seen from israel from the socalled mini cabinet from netanyahu and company is a decision to test the boundaries with hezbollah by breaking the previous understanding over the last dozen years in order to put more heat and hezbollah and the idea that hezbollah is accumulating sophisticated weapons that israel considers. To be a threat that security. Is this is what were seeing right now being played on our screens in real time again changer because this this adoption of a more aggressive stance on the parts of the Israeli Military i mean how many new fronts can israel open up because ok it probably militarily wont become overstretched if it carries on doing these grab and snatch military operations but when they when they put a military term into the cork mire that used to be lebanon on you know theres no easy exit strategy from that surely. Yes in terms of the strategic or the minute that it logic of getting the operations in iraq syria and lebanon of course in terms of the Israeli Military started to doctrine this is and give the necessary action by israel in order to cripple it but our allies weaken the various capacities of iran to project force against israel in the region including myside stalking or missile use or was propositioned of forces position in the forces in syria and lebanon so in the overall this does fit squarely with the israeli doctrine of preemptive strikes even though of this time around weve seen it for the for the 1st time catarrh than iraq and we havent seen that since 1000. 00 what 81. 00 against the o. C. Iraq a Nuclear Reactor in iraq so there is an expansion of the operations but israel is of course justify that on the basis that iran is also expanding its projection of influence and the sophistication of the upper of a projection of influence in the region notably in syria and lebanon now there are of course couple of other explanations that do not touch the the heart of the strategic calculus and this is the political calculus and that the question of relations with the United States the political calculus as we all know is right on the eve of the election everything is precious everything is important than ever they will affect the Election Results and knowing that the neo is both a security minister and the Prime Minister he is having a huge capacity now to dictate what policy isnt thems of hezbollah or iran in the region and the escalation against hezbollah is a projection of force certainly a political as much as it is a strategic decision it political in the sense that there. I would like to be known 2 weeks before the elections as mr security because to be mr security or moderate the horn as they call it in israel is very important to garner support among mainstream israelis who always look for the strong leader but its very easy in this circumstance for mr but the hoeing or mr security to slip into a mr war and mr war if we remember from memory whether it was begun in 1802 with the invasion of lebanon on or even iraq in terms of pulling out of lebanon when that came to be a much more dramatic decision like war or in 82 or 2006 we saw. Prime minister begin stepping down and then we also saw Prime Minister olmert for other reasons that thing done after the 2006 war so going to war is not an easy decision and that will affect the calculus the political calculus of the elections and a whole other ways so while i think Prime Minister netanyahu is interested in this kind of a why denying of the preemptive action of israel against iran i am not sure hes interested today in an open war with the capacities that hezbollah has that could put our lives at least in the northern part of israel in your reading of what were looking at right now and does that mean that this might be a significant but a rather ugly skirmish which will naturally diminish if only because. You can all assume that hes secure in the knowledge of the custom and practice that you were touching on a couple minutes ago custom and practice being on the part of the israelis look we will go after other proxies we will not put number one directly do something across the border into lebanon and point number 2 we will not mention lebanon as a state as a country as being directly involved in this. Well thats certainly has been the case for the last few years for the last dozen years that theres a certain understanding that were not going to go repeat that 2006 war and i think hezbollah despite its allegation of having some kind of a divine victory against israel in the war everyone understands that has what are suffered enormously in the war just as is also suffered so that war certainly did not set of hezbollah in lebanon or is read and i think i repeat under normal circumstances would not be desirable by either party and i think thats why the of voided any such confrontation in the past has but as weve heard from senator for if would have acted at all it would have been in the shop a farm or it would have been as it once threatened just over the last couple of years due to react to israel in the golan it as much as Israel Attacked iranian assets in syria so now we are out in front of the whole of the situation but to answer more directly your important question peter let me just put it this way as a strategic analyst we could and allies and in even project and predict based on a number of russian of assumptions we cannot predict or analyze on basis of irrational assumptions or irrational act on the part of hezbollah or israel and we cannot underlies unless we have all the assumption and tens of give you just one example and be quick. If in israel theres an understanding that the Trump Presidency is open to a dialogue with iran and that they will start to listen the pressure on the ayatollah in the run in the coming months with the help of the french president and that that will lead to a whole new understanding among washington between washington and iran that certainly israel is not keen on this scenario and wouldnt act to torpedo that scenario by hiking the until against iran in the region attacking its assets and expanding the room for busy confrontations with earing assets including hezbollah and lebanon to make sure it cripples any possibility of scenario for busy a new normalizations of relations between the thrum and ministration and any presidency in iran because thats definitely nothing that israel would want to see coming and thats what everything that is or opposed to during the Obama Administration so there is the strategic of us with the United States theres the strategic calculus of improving and of great thing the various assets of iran in syria iraq and lebanon and 3rd there is the israeli elections or so on all these fronts you could see why Prime Minister netanyahu would be interested in mid escalation to prove himself to be the security man to tell the United States would not interested in opening with iran and to put iran and its allies a notice that iran that israel will go after you if youre 30 israels security hezbollah has different calculation but certainly would not be humiliated by israel will not be hit in his stronghold in in the southern part to beirut by israel it will not accept to be directly attacked by israeli aircraft as apparently would be the case today. And hence might respond with vigor and that will definitely put nothing you know on the defensive and what they cost and the horn you russia now in terms of whether this would be limited bombing or an open war could there be another calculation on the parts of nasrallah and hezbollah more when i mean could it be in effect you know when he did his 2 appearances on his t. V. Channel in the past what 10 days now is a bit of a stress test that hes applying to Benjamin Netanyahu his calculation is i want to appear as if im changing the rules of the game but he knows and netanyahu knows that nobody really wants to go back to what happened in 2006. Absolutely and let me just go further to say that theres almost. The in a balanced of not fear but a balance of anxiety that this sort of limited confrontation would lead to escalating. Fighting and perhaps war because once missiles start flying in the opposite sides of the border and once israel start using its air force and hezbollah desponding against such movements in the north or at least military bases in the north of israel there is no telling how much money how could then be able to dictate the evolution or devolution of that kind of escalation with hezbollah nor would his one who has been trying since its foolish intervention in syria has been trying to act responsibly at least in a fight as a lebanon as a sovereign country is concerned and as far as the its its strong base among the shiites in the south is concerned trying to act out of sponsibility and try to take a break from this confrontation in syria confrontation against israel to now change this course or to change course and start escalating to war its a major confrontation with israel would also be foolish on the part of his body so there is a balance of anxiety on both parts that an open war would not certain at the neon in the elections were not said of is there of security and certainly would not serve hezbollah within the lebanese structure and would not serve hezbollah strategically either. Many thanks if you just joining us here on aljazeera less to sum up for you what we know now going to wrap up what were saying in a big Health Warning because were quoting. Hezbollah t. V. Coming to us out of beirut were also quoting other people so these are reports and quotes. But what we do know is this Israeli Forces fired several shells at a border village its called Maroun Al Ras its in the southern section of lebanon on the border thats according to hezbollahs al menar t. V. Channel the channel is broadcasting live it says from the village showing large plumes of smoke rising from the countryside near the border well talk to our correspondent harry forces who joins us from northern israel harry just get us right up to speed what do we know because this is such a fast quickly evolving situation. Well sure ill start with the very latest that were getting from the israeli side and that is a report on Israel Army Radio and indeed comments coming from the cabinet minister you of galant him saying that he is not aware of any israeli casualties similar reporting coming from israels army radio so on the israeli side we have yet to have final confirmation of this from the Israeli Military itself in an official statement that the suggestion is that despite having said that they did take hits at this military sites military vehicles and military base near this town of. Targeted they appear not to suffered any fatalities at least not yet now if that is the case that is a very Important Development because a lot of what could happen from now on very much depends on any potential death toll and any potential response to that from the side taking the the majority of the casualties if the Israeli Intelligence is as good as its been boasting in recent days in terms of knowing about hezbollah knowing about its movements inside lebanon then one would have to assume as youve been hearing from my colleagues that israel is making its target seeing practice extremely carefully in this in this response to to the antitank missiles it is as we know carrying out numerous strikes close to the lebanese border we have heard on the israeli media in the last few minutes that as strikes are also included in that although that again has yet to be confirmed officially by the Israeli Military presumably it also is trying to keep the casualty toll relatively low because the assumption is on all sides here the. A major broader escalation towards all out war is something that neither side wants but of course now were in the dynamic thats unfolding right now whatever the wishes on both sides that is very much alive possibility and the language is getting quite interesting and quite compelling in a in a kind of a weird way almost harry i mean has a nasrallah been quoted as saying israel should know the lebanese airspace is not open to its drones i mean this is not house and this roller talking about hezbollah this is Hassen Nasrallah apparently talking as if hes defending lebanon on that tilt might be significant. Well i think as far as israel is concerned it has long argued that hezbollah is very much integrated into the lebanese political system that it is. Facilitated very openly by other political actors inside lebanon and in its most recent press release about what it said it knew regarding hezbollah and iranian cooperation to produce precision guided missiles inside lebanese territory something that has on the stroller the leader of hezbollah rejected in his speech on saturday but israel said that the fact that this was happening on lebanese soil meant essentially that it was lebanese lebanons problem in lebanon must act to stop it and that it would be held responsible for what was going on so as far as the israelis are concerned that in itself isnt necessarily something new there was one quite interesting bit of analysis of nasrallah speech when it came out on saturday in which he did talk obviously about the entire length of the border being open to a retarded strike which he said had been decided upon and it seems that weve seen that play out today and he said that israel its drones inside lebanese airspace would be subject to being shot down he did not have a commits to in every instance trying to shoot those drones down so some read that as perhaps a relatively. Downgraded threats coming from astrology to israel as it turns out on the eve of this strike happening near i. V. With these antitank missiles so there are 6 you can read it in a number of ways but there are certainly signals available to be interpreted on both sides that if things go as they appear to be going now then this is very much containable but of course thats a big if once. All of this all images in the air and if things potentially can happen even if not wills and then it can take on a momentum of its own harry many things will come back to in the next few minutes im sure lets stay with these pictures until correspondents in a hotel whos standing by for us on the line as ever in beirut say no just get us right up to the point of the latest information. Well the latest information that has blown our television station is reporting that israeli shelling sporadic shelling has been targeting largely empty areas in the villages of. The ross ice or who are. These are border towns right along lebanon border as well there are no reports of possible clues and the reports were getting is that this is something we are on our way in 2000 and of the moment but leben on revenue part minister is apis moment holding 9 back with with washington in paris suckers who go for american french officials who try to arm them really to start to try to stop this escalation and its going to flare up. To. War the Prime Minister has been holding progress with what. Our budget is over the past move to send. A large israeli loan a class on. Hold in the southern part of the babe ruth. To be not influence in. And as is the way of these things i think weve lost that line to a harder again just to get you right up to date so the shelling operation still ongoing across the border from israel in to lebanon and just to reiterate and redefine one point that harry force of our correspondent was making there just looking at various quotes and reactions running around or doing the rounds of the back of what youre looking at right now theres a quote from the Northern Command is really a Northern Command Major General amir better arm saying that if one israeli soldier is so much scratched our response will be harsh harry was making the point when we were having a conversation with him hes close to the border in northern israel he was making the point that now what will decide perhaps and its a big perhaps is a big question where this skirmish goes from here will be if there are israeli fatalities or not if there are lebanese fatalities or not zain i was making the point there before we lost that. In beirut she was saying israel is in effect bombing towns and villages or village like areas you can see it there on your screens those villages are in effect pretty much empty anyway hezbollah is saying there are israeli casualties the israeli army is not saying there are israeli casualties so lets talk to rami curry is a nonresident senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy school he joins us on skype from boston. Whats your take on whats going on. At one level what were seeing is very typical of what has gone on for the last 2030 years the retaliations the theres 2 really significant things going on one was that last weekend the israelis fired. Missiles and other things up for different targets in syria iraq and lebanon and there was an exchange with hamas so israel was fighting with 4 different adversaries on 4 different fronts that was something significant on the fact that one of them wasnt beirut and now has a lot has retaliated the other significant thing i would say here. Is that hezbollah was able to hit the military vehicle near an Israeli Military base that should worry the israelis and the point of this tit for tat is to send a message not to overturn a great strategic balance ricing like the so you have to very powerful some groups the Israeli Military and hizbollah who with enormous capabilities for destruction if they want to use them trying desperately not to use them in an all out all out war so the question really becomes if we do have a situation of relative deterrence here at least in lebanon iraq and syria might be different than gaza where is this going to or is this going to eventually force both sides to explore political negotiations or will they just stay like this for many many years to come the important thing is not how many people are killed the important thing is the military capabilities that each side shows it has and can use the hezbollah would want to retaliate for the deaths of 2 of its men and syria by. Killing some Israeli Soldiers ideally so that there is a kind of a balance of revenge and deterrence and capability if the casualties are proven or not that that might. Lead to new developments or it might not well have well have to really see how this plays are partly in at the arena Public Opinion and partly in the arena of political relationships because youre going to get people around the world now weighing in on this and trying to get both sides to make sure they dont lead to an all out war there any curry when you talk about the arena of Public Opinion lets boil that durned to its ultimate distillation i guess the arena of Public Opinion in israel is 16 days from now israel goes to the polls how much of what were seeing today is about that because Benjamin Netanyahu didnt form a governing coalition thats the 1st such failure in the history of israel well that is always of factor when you have an election coming especially with the right wing ultra nationalist extremists who now rule israel very close to the settlers and the religious fanatics of the right wing in israel but the fact is that israel has done this kind of military action often unprovoked without an election coming up their big strategic rule is that they must always be stronger than any combination of adversaries around them whether its arabs or iranians whoever else it may be and so they dont need an election to do this but the election always adds another wrinkle to it we understand as well sources telling our correspondents in a hoarder in beirut that the lebanese Prime Minister is right now talking on the phone to the french government we assume emmanuel macro and also talking to the trumpet ministration in washington a couple of points why is he not talking to hezbollah or maybe he has been talking to hezbollah because they are woven in into the political fabric of his country now of course they are point number one point number 2 ways that conversation going to go when he gets donald trump or somebody at the state department on the phone where is that conversation head again. The point that people raise wonder talk with International Parties is that israel cannot be cannot be allowed to be the only party in the middle east that will can go around killing and shooting and encroaching on other peoples sovereign territory and a destructive way where everybody else has to show restraint but the israelis dont have to show restraint so this is a challenge to the american position which has long been to support the israeli demand this is an act of congress that the American Government supports the israeli demand to be stronger militarily than any combination of its foes and this has become even more reliant with the us with the trumpet ministrations i dont think i dont think the lebanese Prime Minister is going to get very far and talking with trump but it could raise issues broader than just the israeli hezbollah confrontation because you have the issue of iran and if as weve been following for the last few weeks there are attempts to get the americans and iranians to talk again about the Nuclear Issue on the sanctions issue that would scare the daylights out of israel and thats the last thing that they want then you have of course the america is on the saudis on the arab gulf side also goading the americans to keep pressuring the iranians and trying to contain them or whatever so theres thats the bigger strategic picture so when we had those revelations at the g. 7 in berates on the Atlantic Coast of france that the iranians had been in paris the week before the g 7 and then they pop up in berates the world thought oh thats good thats progress we can we can take the temperature of that relationship between washington and tehran what youre actually saying in israel in mr netanyahu in a sanctum that would be perceived as oh were in trouble we do not want this situation to get calm what we do not want people talking to the iranians and bringing them back on board again. Thats correct the israelis for many many decades have always had an adversary in the arab world who was very strong or getting stronger who they wanted to defeat years ago it was the egyptians then it was the syrians then it was the iraqis under Saddam Hussein. And now of course the p. L. O. All along then it was hezbollah and now its iran theres only is some big emerging power in the middle east arab or iranian that the israelis fear and therefore they keep projecting their diplomatic and military strategy to try to weaken the power through through various means theyve succeeded over the years one of the ways they succeed as they equate these powers in the middle east like say syria under. Or iraq under Saddam Hussein or his below or the iranians they quit them with the enemies of the west so back in the days of the cold war that they say these people were communists and they were pro soviet then the became that these people were terrorists and theyre allied to okada so this is a constant seam in the israeli perception of itself in the region and the relationship of the region to the western powers this strategy has worked for the israelis so far the problem with that is that it has brought them to the situation theyre out today where they were. In centrally engaged in military action to a limited extent with 4 different people on one day and all of these adversaries hezbollah. And some of the groups in syria and iraq on the whole it is later perhaps theyre all developing much more sophisticated military capabilities which we saw early this morning one. Hezbollah could fire on to tank rockets military targets in northern israel you would think those military targets would be pretty well protected but that the hezbollah rockets reached them we may see it has a film from hezbollah possibly about this attack they often tend to do that so the Bigger Picture always is not whats going to happen in the next few hours. The Bigger Picture is where is this leading it could ultimately lead to a gigantic regional armageddon type war which of course everybody doesnt want to happen and will try to avoid but sometimes this war is going to be sparked by accident that can be sparked by an external provocateur well have to wait and see how these things develop remy koori do stay with us but for the moment thank you so much lets talk to zain a holder our correspondent in beirut so zain im seeing confirmation now the lebanese Prime Minister has called on the United States and france to intervene after this escalation with israel i guess we might know the response to that in the next couple of hours. Well yes we are the Prime Minister Holding Contacts with the United States to try and hoping that the latest a harry exchanges will not lead to all out war he has been Holding Contests for the past 2 days with the bathwater that our combat but there is trying to complete and the fall out because it was very clear hezbollah made it very clear that they will retaliate and they have taken and now the question is what happens next well if we just look back on what happened the past hour and a half israel media reports an antitank missile from the from lebanon into israel hezbollah claiming responsibility for targeting an israeli see a coach claiming to have caused casualties theres still no confirmation from israel whether or not there were casualties but its 5 knowledge that there was an attack and as well the israeli army responded by firing shall move to a number of towns along the border. But those shells landing in largely empty area and so far hezbollah has luck with that to the israeli fire so the question is both sides are they trying to come pensioners kind to contain this layer 5 5 we understand from the United Nations interim force 11 on this is the u. S. And weve lost that line. Again in beirut will try and go back to zain or just as soon as we can what youre looking at the most recent pictures coming to us from the israeli lebanon border we will to bring you continuing coverage of this breaking story here on aljazeera if you are just tuning in just let me fill you in what we on what we know so far the Israeli Military saying its fired into southern lebanon after an unspecified number of missiles they were antitank missiles targeted an israeli army base and vehicles near the border near a village of the now the missiles hit several of the targets thats according to the israeli army it saying it returned fire following the attack that returned fire we understand is still ongoing weve had reaction as well from hezbollah they were saying the missiles launched from lebanon destroyed a tank killing and wounding people inside the tank we cannot confirm your english cannot confirm that the Israeli Military has not confirmed that that depending upon which analyst you listen to or you talk to will be the deciding factor in whether this goes on over the coming hours certainly until darkness falls as an ugly significant skirmish pegged to whats going on in the relationship between israel and iran iran and the United States and significantly israel identifying and labeling lebanon as being directly as a country being directly involved in whats going on with israels ongoing conflict with other proxy organizations paramilitary organizations around the region will stay with these pictures and talk to our senior political analyst Marwan Bashar so lets just kick off talking about the politics of this the lebanese Prime Minister talking to the french talking to the americans presumably at the trumpet ministrations reaction will be well thats very nice but were were b. F. S. With the powers that be in jerusalem. Yes but also you would expect something of the french and maybe to a lesser degree the United States despite labeling hezbollah a terrorist organization that they are not interested at this point in time and yet another escalation or another war in the middle east when it when the United States is actually trying to extract itself from syria iraq afghanistan and other places in the middle east so i dont think today an all out war is the interest of over anyone and i think if prime missed that had it he is talking to the french and the american president s he would find. You know listening. Leaders on the other on the other side that doesnt mean that they are able to do much about it and israel has made it clear throughout the years including its invasion of lebanon 1802 that by the way for many of our young generation viewers that were born often 1802 its good to mind them that hezbollah both as a political and military wings is the byproduct of the israeli and acute invasion and occupation of lebanon and after 1802. 00 until 2000 so hezbollah is a byproduct of that body particular invasion and the lebanese specially southern lebanon continues to be quite vengeful and fearful and angry at israel for the destruction it created in in South Lebanon so once again and as far as the friends and the United States of course are and specially friends thats been trying to mediate between to one and washington theyre certainly not interested in more escalation in the region and when it comes to doing so and his bug me ma and to terry on. I was just going to say that when it comes to israels security as framed and defined by israeli leaders a Prime Minister netanyahu like his successor like his predecessors have always insisted that this is a sovereign israeli decision and they will not be taking the thats from the United States france or anyone else and as we spoke earlier peter clearly. The netanyahu government deems the projection over iranian influence in the region through it walk syria and lebanon to be a threat to its security and hence if that it there wants to act or create and more expansion of iranian and hezbollah influence in lebanon syria and iraq in the pivoting relationship between the lebanese Prime Minister and hezbollah whos in charge of us. Well this is been going on for a good number of years now especially since this as a nation of over a figurehead to the father of the current Prime Minister saad that have eerie and its been an arduous and complicated than relations with lots of ups and downs especially. After the assassination of the Prime Minister in 2014 in. Any way. That im going to have to remind myself of that very particular that so dont take my word on it be that as it may after the water lebanon in 2006 out of israel war lebanon 2006 that created major schizm if you will between hezbollah and its other lebanese partners that felt that hezbollah was basically running a state within a state and running amok with Lebanon Security in the way it had that iran managed the war with israel so their religion has been complicated but hezbollah as the political arm has been able to garner a lot of support in the poor and hence in us fight as the lebanese constitution is concerned. Hezbollah has what its called the op struction is 3rd meaning hezbollah on its own but hezbollah also with its allies and the president the. President of lebanon own and his party are able in fact to neutralize that if you could have either the Prime Minister and to have a veto over much of what is going on in the country that doesnt mean that a lot of lebanese would be happy i think there would be quite upset and angry including many shiites the strong base of his more law if another war breaks out with israel because theyve suffered enough both in syria and because of his radio fission and invasions of lebanon is significant though isnt it mo and i mean everyone is kind. Echoing what youve been saying to us over the past couple of hours which is this that nobody on either side of this wants to return to 2006 what was it 1100. 00 plus People Killed in lebanon on most of them civilians almost 200. 00 People Killed in israel so clearly nobody wants to be associated with that but but the nonreturn valve of were doing things to each other now has been opened and there are other components that werent around in 2006 were a matter of 2 weeks away from an election in israel and youve touched on this already Benjamin Netanyahu interpretation of growing influence growing iranian influence around the region he does not want that that his primacy to him we cannot have it. You know absolutely and let me let me be a bit more nuance about what this said than what is be echoed around look yes in the basic assumption is neither israel nor hezbollah nor lebanon are interested in or an all out war because that will be quite damaging both to their strategic posture ringback to their popular base and to their very particular interest in capacities so there is no doubt about that but i think the expansion of that front against iran by the attacks against iraq syria and lebanon now then you know is sending messages one im going to stop. Just continuing coverage of this breaking story with julie on the other side of the break well see you soon. Talk to old jews there of. What guarantees will be given to the people will be attending the minimal workshop we listen im supposed to explain apologize for someone who is also terrorizing we meet with global newsmakers and talk about the stories that matter on the show to 0. 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And youre watching live pictures from the israel lebanon border we are continuing our breaking News Coverage of the tension between hezbollah and israel in the last hour weve seen an escalation between the 2 sides israel is confirmed multiple hits on an army base a Lebanese Armed group has lost says its fighters destroyed an israeli tank israel has not yet confirmed any casualties well the Lebanese Army says Israeli Forces of fod at least 40 shells at border villages in southern lebanon lets get some more now from Harry Fossett he joins us live from northern israel how are we what is the situation as it stands right now. Well the very latest that were hearing from across the border from lebanese media reports is that the israeli shelling appears to have died down in recent minutes there were also reports coming from that side that the targets seemed largely to be in relatively empty areas relatively close to the border now this all started around just under 2 hours ago now with what the Israeli Military said were antitank missiles fired at an Israeli Military base near the israeli town of village of aviv eem which is about 30 kilometers away from a severe bout 30 going to southwest of where were standing here these really mean she said that it took hits in that attack and that it was responding firing on the sources of that fire and at other targets inside lebanon we also heard reports from israeli media the aircraft were involved in a strike at least one was carried out and so far although we have no official word on casualties from the Israeli Military or the Israeli Government we did hear from a cabinet minister your government in one interview saying that he wasnt aware of any israeli casualties and we had a similar report coming from Israeli Army Radio as well not withstanding not there were reports coming from the other side of the border from hezbollah saying that they had managed to take managed to target Israeli Soldiers and they were claiming casualties on the israeli side we wait to find out exactly what the israeli army has to say about that when it makes an official comment and harry i suppose the big problem in this situation is that these pictures were seeing now are pictures that weve seen many times over the years and the big problem for people is just how far could this escalate but also what im hearing from many of our guests and contributors and i wonder your perspective on this that its in no ones interest for things to truly escalates. Well yes i think that is the interpretation that is is pretty much across the board that. The 2 countries find themselves or rather israel and hezbollah find themselves in a situation where they are having su engage in in cross border strikes hezbollah is saying it is doing that because israel has been escalating its military missions against iranian interests throughout the region and in particular in hezbollah and in lebanons case last weekend with an airstrike which was carried out inside syria in which 2 hezbollah fighters were killed and a drone strike which it should be its to israel in southern beirut a hezbollah stronghold were to drones came down and explosives were used and caused damage to hezbollah building in that part of beirut as far as hezbollah is concerned that is breaching the rules of engagement have been in place since the last war in 2006 and that necessitated a military response a sudden the stronger the leader of hezbollah warned of that almost immediately after that drone strike inside inside beirut last weekend he gave a repeated warning saturday night as well so the Israeli Military had been preparing for this it pretty much knew it was coming and it is carrying out its response so there is i think an understanding on both sides that there is limited scope for them both to act militarily against each other in this context and that could well be the end of it however once both sides are engaged in such military confrontation there is always the chance that something bigger than either side intended to might well happen and that is how the escalation ladder can start to be climbed harry with also got the situation there in 16 days time of course israelis will go back to the polls and how much does appearing to be the strongman if you like potentially have to do with what were seeing happening here. Well certainly Benjamin Netanyahu has made an arts and indeed a science of appealing to israelis on the basis of their fears about whats could await them in terms of confrontation with other actors in this region and telling them that he is the man with the political expertise the the handle on the intelligence the and israel is the country with the military might to deal with those potential dangers and that only he really can be trusted in such a dangerous environment and that is why he has made that message central to his campaign earlier this year in april and he is doing so again and so there has been a good deal of commentary on that basis saying that perhaps these 2 things the links that israels recent escalation in its in its targeting of iranian interests around the region what it says and has brought out apparent evidence to back up its claims of busy iranian sort of changing iranian tactics in terms of what iran is trying to do in terms of its threat to israel saying it necessitates a more muscular response from israel there is always the suspicion the expectation even Benjamin Netanyahu. Would want to appear to be doing his utmost at this time in the run up to an election which is crucially important not just his political legacy is survival as leader of israel but also potentially given the corruption charges that hes facing come october when the 1st of his indictment hearings is due to start. The the position as Prime Minister of of israel could be an important protection to him personally legally as well. Harry fawcett joining us there form there a close to where you see those areas of those poles of smoke rising into the air we can tell you weve just received a statement here at aljazeera from unifil thats the u. N. Monitoring mission in lebanon and this is what it says and i quote the head of mission is in close contact with the parties maximum restraint and asking to cease all it to its knees that are endangering the sation of hostilities so again echoing what were hearing here from our contributes isnt our report says al jazeera that the both sides will hopefully try to contain this lets get more now from is in a hold our who is of beirut for us zain what are you are hearing on on your side. Well like you mentioned the u. N. Peacekeeping force which is stationed along the levanon Israel Border theyve been Holding Contacts with both sides to try to deescalate tensions lebanons Prime Minister assad know how did he has contacted the u. S. Secretary of state pompei o is also in contact with french officials asking the u. S. And france to try to stop this escalation and i must say that in the past 10 or 15 minutes we havent heard any reports of israeli shelling israel the israeli army i retaliate with that hezbollah attack by shelling border villages lebanese border villages but what the target really was open areas empty area there havent been any casualties and the shelling was sporadic so in many ways somehow a limited obrist spocks hezbollah did not respond to that shelling so there was no exchange of fire along the border after that reported hezbollah attack but its clearly too early to say whether or not the situation can be contained or whether the tensions will escalate into a full blown war. It is not in the interest of either side but has been made very clear over the past week that it has decided to retaliate and it wants israel to pay the price for 2 actions really the 1st israeli air strikes in neighboring syria which killed 2 of its operatives and its blaming israel for sending 2 armed drones on what it called a Suicide Mission into its stronghold in the Southern Suburbs of beirut now as well as monarch television saying that the there were 4 casualties for injuries in this attack of course were still waiting to hear from the israeli side on whether or not there were casualties in this attack but as bill are carrying out its promise retaliation and i must mention its inside israel since 2006 was the last time hezbollah and israel went to war but since then has followed has retaliated to israeli actions in syria israel has killed a number of their leaders theyve retaliated in the ship off farms thats a disputed territory along the border this time it is inside israel its the 1st time really since the 2006 war the same im thinking of this from the perspective of the average lebanese person how worrying is it when the incidents potentially escalate. No doubt people are concerned but we are not getting any reports of people for example fleeing southern lebanon so no reports of a you know a Mass Evacuation from the area so far for example israel has not responded by targeting hezbollah southern stronghold which is a very densely populated area this has still not happened but lebanese have been have been concerned they believe that israel may want to target a number of areas and the economy in this country is very bad so it can worsen really the situation. As a whole to their joining us from they were saying. Lets bring in our. Tomorrow one more one bashar i think in london and marwan listening to all of the contributors what im picking up here is as we start at the start of the show that escalating this situation isnt in any partys interest so is whats happening and what were seeing now this kind of tactical to for tat what is the kind of short term game all of that lets just all remind our viewers at least that and ourselves but that was is or that started this is collation last week today with a number of operations in iraq syria and lebanon and it broke biased understanding over the last dozen years by that act that deccan has what law strongholds so that what we know and were not surprised that hizbullah responded not while its true that no one or Neither Party is interested in all out war or a repeat of 2006 but there are a number of calculations and one unintended which is just like wars have
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