A safe where israel can continue targeting with impunity ok zain well talk to you again in the coming couple of hours i suspect the show in the meantime thanks very much lets get more now by talking to the middle east analysts come all was nate who was in beirut kemal was me welcome to aljazeera. Breakdown of whats going on right now. Basically. Has been known since the beginning of targeting. The fight of hezbollah in syria this will be this will not go without retaliation. Retaliation is to reinforce the ability in the border not to give israel a free hand to attack lebanon any time the promise came from hezbollah and hezbollah deliver on that promise i think we can we can leave it there or the israeli now they can act elated but really today it is in the hand of the israeli where they want to take it i think if they want to take it very far i think hezbollah is ready to take it very far. He has been making all the preparation for any retaliation. Everybody knows that. Probably people who follow that. Back would happen any minute and it did happen today. And i think now the israeli have been chanting out there. Probably. A lot backgame from but 3 im afraid this is can go beyond those. Adjacent. Any mistake in the confrontation right now this is will take us to 2006 a place that we shouldnt be there very briefly are we saying that israel was always going to react in this way and are we saying that when house run. Goes on his t. V. Channel because thats in effect what it is he knew israel knew it was going to react in this way. Well we dont know is there any kind of react if this is going to be adjacent to the border we have the operation of hezbollah went after the israeli its going to be controlled constrained to certain area or its going to be expanding to other areas we all know that israel has one of the best air force in the wont they have a lot of heat but on the other hand hezbollah has a very precise missile all it take one. Air force strike and a few missiles and we have a war i think right now basically what we have to see. How this can my and standing is can go either way just a little miscalculation. Can take us into a very dangerous world im watching. Bombs on t. V. Because now everything is transferred through satellite. And through reality. We have to wait and see but i think this can be stopped without further escalation kemal was me on the line for us to beirut thank you very much lets bring in senior political analyst Marwan Bashara who joins us from london or not as the case may be oh i can see that hes back perhaps well try and establish communications with mom and mom in his speech. Not sure if youre hearing me or not but ill ask you the question anyway what do you think is really going on hear hear. Well there is no surprise because last week today there was that this collation of course on the part of israel starting with some bombing in iraq against the Popular Mobilization as weve heard from senator for followed by immediately after bombings in syria followed once again a few hours later of bombings and in lebanon so clearly israel has expanded its area of operation against irans our allies and irans projection of power in in the near east including iraq syria and lebanon it also broke what seems to be an understanding over a how or where to fight against hezbollah in lebanon by as again we heard earlier by bombing the southern suburb of beirut so once again theres no surprise that theres a bit of an escalation now because they hezbollah leaders and the israelis have been warning against escalation the big question is whether this will continue to be bomb and counter bomb or whether this would be to war or busy not the war between hezbollah and israel and there are a number of reasons why both parties would not be interested in war and also a couple of reasons why they would be interested in at least testing that boundaries of how far they can go in order to squeeze the other and what weve seen from israel from the socalled mini cabinet from netanyahu and company is a decision to test the boundaries with hezbollah by breaking the previous understanding over the last dozen years in order to put more heat and hezbollah and the idea that hezbollah is accumulating sophisticated weapons that israel considers. To be a threat that security. Is this is what were seeing right now being played on our screens in real time again changer because this this adoption of a more aggressive stance on the parts of the Israeli Military i mean how many new fronts can israel open up because ok it probably militarily wont become overstretched if it carries on doing these grab and snatch military operations but when they when they put a military term into the cork mire that used to be lebanon on you know theres no easy exit strategy from that surely. Yes in terms of the strategic or the minute that it logic of getting the operations in iraq syria and lebanon of course in terms of the Israeli Military started to doctrine this is and give the necessary action by israel in order to cripple it but our allies weaken the various capacities of iran to project force against israel in the region including myside stalking or missile use or was propositioned of forces position in the forces in syria and lebanon so in the overall this does fit squarely with the israeli doctrine of preemptive strikes even though of this time around weve seen it for the for the 1st time catarrh than iraq and we havent seen that since 1000. 00 what 81. 00 against the o. C. Iraq a Nuclear Reactor in iraq so there is an expansion of the operations but israel is of course justify that on the basis that iran is also expanding its projection of influence and the sophistication of the upper of a projection of influence in the region notably in syria and lebanon now there are of course couple of other explanations that do not touch the the heart of the strategic calculus and this is the political calculus and that the question of relations with the United States the political calculus as we all know is right on the eve of the election everything is precious everything is important than ever they will affect the Election Results and knowing that the neo is both a security minister and the Prime Minister he is having a huge capacity now to dictate what policy isnt thems of hezbollah or iran in the region and the escalation against hezbollah is a projection of force certainly a political as much as it is a strategic decision it political in the sense that there. I would like to be known 2 weeks before the elections as mr security because to be mr security or moderate the horn as they call it in israel is very important to garner support among mainstream israelis who always look for the strong leader but its very easy in this circumstance for mr but the hoeing or mr security to slip into a mr war and mr war if we remember from memory whether it was begun in 1802 with the invasion of lebanon on or even iraq in terms of pulling out of lebanon when that came to be a much more dramatic decision like war or in 82 or 2006 we saw. Prime minister begin stepping down and then we also saw Prime Minister olmert for other reasons that thing done after the 2006 war so going to war is not an easy decision and that will affect the calculus the political calculus of the elections and a whole other ways so while i think Prime Minister netanyahu is interested in this kind of a why denying of the preemptive action of israel against iran i am not sure hes interested today in an open war with the capacities that hezbollah has that could put our lives at least in the northern part of israel in your reading of what were looking at right now and does that mean that this might be a significant but a rather ugly skirmish which will naturally diminish if only because. You can all assume that hes secure in the knowledge of the custom and practice that you were touching on a couple minutes ago custom and practice being on the part of the israelis look we will go after other proxies we will not put number one directly do something across the border into lebanon and point number 2 we will not mention lebanon as a state as a country as being directly involved in this. Well thats certainly has been the case for the last few years for the last dozen years that theres a certain understanding that were not going to go repeat that 2006 war and i think hezbollah despite its allegation of having some kind of a divine victory against israel in the war everyone understands that has what are suffered enormously in the war just as is also suffered so that war certainly did not set of hezbollah in lebanon or is read and i think i repeat under normal circumstances would not be desirable by either party and i think thats why the of voided any such confrontation in the past has but as weve heard from senator for if would have acted at all it would have been in the shop a farm or it would have been as it once threatened just over the last couple of years due to react to israel in the golan it as much as Israel Attacked iranian assets in syria so now we are out in front of the whole of the situation but to answer more directly your important question peter let me just put it this way as a strategic analyst we could and allies and in even project and predict based on a number of russian of assumptions we cannot predict or analyze on basis of irrational assumptions or irrational act on the part of hezbollah or israel and we cannot underlies unless we have all the assumption and tens of give you just one example and be quick. If in israel theres an understanding that the Trump Presidency is open to a dialogue with iran and that they will start to listen the pressure on the ayatollah in the run in the coming months with the help of the french president and that that will lead to a whole new understanding among washington between washington and iran that certainly israel is not keen on this scenario and wouldnt act to torpedo that scenario by hiking the until against iran in the region attacking its assets and expanding the room for busy confrontations with earing assets including hezbollah and lebanon to make sure it cripples any possibility of scenario for busy a new normalizations of relations between the thrum and ministration and any presidency in iran because thats definitely nothing that israel would want to see coming and thats what everything that is or opposed to during the Obama Administration so there is the strategic of us with the United States theres the strategic calculus of improving and of great thing the various assets of iran in syria iraq and lebanon and 3rd there is the israeli elections or so on all these fronts you could see why Prime Minister netanyahu would be interested in mid escalation to prove himself to be the security man to tell the United States would not interested in opening with iran and to put iran and its allies a notice that iran that israel will go after you if youre 30 israels security hezbollah has different calculation but certainly would not be humiliated by israel will not be hit in his stronghold in in the southern part to beirut by israel it will not accept to be directly attacked by israeli aircraft as apparently would be the case today. And hence might respond with vigor and that will definitely put nothing you know on the defensive and what they cost and the horn you russia now in terms of whether this would be limited bombing or an open war could there be another calculation on the parts of nasrallah and hezbollah more when i mean could it be in effect you know when he did his 2 appearances on his t. V. Channel in the past what 10 days now is a bit of a stress test that hes applying to Benjamin Netanyahu his calculation is i want to appear as if im changing the rules of the game but he knows and netanyahu knows that nobody really wants to go back to what happened in 2006. Absolutely and let me just go further to say that theres almost. The in a balanced of not fear but a balance of anxiety that this sort of limited confrontation would lead to escalating. Fighting and perhaps war because once missiles start flying in the opposite sides of the border and once israel start using its air force and hezbollah desponding against such movements in the north or at least military bases in the north of israel there is no telling how much money how could then be able to dictate the evolution or devolution of that kind of escalation with hezbollah nor would his one who has been trying since its foolish intervention in syria has been trying to act responsibly at least in a fight as a lebanon as a sovereign country is concerned and as far as the its its strong base among the shiites in the south is concerned trying to act out of sponsibility and try to take a break from this confrontation in syria confrontation against israel to now change this course or to change course and start escalating to war its a major confrontation with israel would also be foolish on the part of his body so there is a balance of anxiety on both parts that an open war would not certain at the neon in the elections were not said of is there of security and certainly would not serve hezbollah within the lebanese structure and would not serve hezbollah strategically either. Many thanks if you just joining us here on aljazeera less to sum up for you what we know now going to wrap up what were saying in a big Health Warning because were quoting. Hezbollah t. V. Coming to us out of beirut were also quoting other people so these are reports and quotes. But what we do know is this Israeli Forces fired several shells at a border village its called Maroun Al Ras its in the southern section of lebanon on the border thats according to hezbollahs al menar t. V. Channel the channel is broadcasting live it says from the village showing large plumes of smoke rising from the countryside near the border well talk to our correspondent harry forces who joins us from northern israel harry just get us right up to speed what do we know because this is such a fast quickly evolving situation. Well sure ill start with the very latest that were getting from the israeli side and that is a report on Israel Army Radio and indeed comments coming from the cabinet minister you of galant him saying that he is not aware of any israeli casualties similar reporting coming from israels army radio so on the israeli side we have yet to have final confirmation of this from the Israeli Military itself in an official statement that the suggestion is that despite having said that they did take hits at this military sites military vehicles and military base near this town of. Targeted they appear not to suffered any fatalities at least not yet now if that is the case that is a very Important Development because a lot of what could happen from now on very much depends on any potential death toll and any potential response to that from the side taking the the majority of the casualties if the Israeli Intelligence is as good as its been boasting in recent days in terms of knowing about hezbollah knowing about its movements inside lebanon then one would have to assume as youve been hearing from my colleagues that israel is making its target seeing practice extremely carefully in this in this response to to the antitank missiles it is as we know carrying out numerous strikes close to the lebanese border we have heard on the israeli media in the last few minutes that as strikes are also included in that although that again has yet to be confirmed officially by the Israeli Military presumably it also is trying to keep the casualty toll relatively low because the assumption is on all sides here the. A major broader escalation towards all out war is something that neither side wants but of course now were in the dynamic thats unfolding right now whatever the wishes on both sides that is very much alive possibility and the language is getting quite interesting and quite compelling in a in a kind of a weird way almost harry i mean has a nasrallah been quoted as saying israel should know the lebanese airspace is not open to its drones i mean this is not house and this roller talking about hezbollah this is Hassen Nasrallah apparently talking as if hes defending lebanon on that tilt might be significant. Well i think as far as israel is concerned it has long argued that hezbollah is very much integrated into the lebanese political system that it is. Facilitated very openly by other political actors inside lebanon and in its most recent press release about what it said it knew regarding hezbollah and iranian cooperation to produce precision guided missiles inside lebanese territory something that has on the stroller the leader of hezbollah rejected in his speech on saturday but israel said that the fact that this was happening on lebanese soil meant essentially that it was lebanese lebanons problem in lebanon must act to stop it and that it would be held responsible for what was going on so as far as the israelis are concerned that in itself isnt necessarily something new there was one quite interesting bit of analysis of nasrallah speech when it came out on saturday in which he did talk obviously about the entire length of the border being open to a retarded strike which he said had been decided upon and it seems that weve seen that play out today and he said that israel its drones inside lebanese airspace would be subject to being shot down he did not have a commits to in every instance trying to shoot those drones down so some read that as perhaps a relatively. Downgraded threats coming from astrology to israel as it turns out on the eve of this strike happening near i. V. With these antitank missiles so there are 6 you can read it in a number of ways but there are certainly signals available to be interpreted on both sides that if things go as they appear to be going now then this is very much containable but of course thats a big if once. All of this all images in the air and if things potentially can happen even if not wills and then it can take on a momentum of its own harry many things will come back to in the next few minutes im sure lets stay with these pictures until correspondents in a hotel whos standing by for us on the line as ever in beirut say no just get us right up to the point of the latest information. Well the latest information that has blown our television st