Its 17 years since the founding of communist china about protests in hong kong overshadowed breakings message of National Unity and quality along with trade wars and territorial disputes how will china manage these persistent challenges this is inside story. Hello and welcome to the program im 40 battle the founder of modern china once said a single spock can start a prairie fire while 70 is since mala saddam established the calmest peoples republic chinas modern day leaders want to contain the spocks potentially threatening their hold on power present she wore a traditional mouse suit to launch the celebrations with a launch military parade in beijing she warned against threats to National Unity and send a message to semiautonomous hong kong and the south through island of taiwan. No paolo can shake a great model that position no power can stop the progress of the peoples republic of china and the people of china when we are. We must uphold a peaceful one country 2 systems principle safeguard hong kong prosperity and stability and promote a peaceful developments of cross streets relations unite all the Chinese People to continue to realize the complete reunification of the motherland. Or hong kongs leader kerry lamb was at the celebrations in beijing while in her home city police were busy putting out fires in untied china protests one man was shot in the chest in the latest of 4 months of protests demanding change the Hong Kong Government tone down the National Day Celebrations are a crock has more from hong kong. The big dramatic scenes across hong kong want to target 1st which is Chinas National Day a tear gas has been used in every single rally location and the 6 different organized assemblies across hong kong and one massive march which is a peaceful march which attracted tens of thousands of people to move from court why by through to Central Hong Kong the place has not confirmed that lie bullets were used at 2 those locations at the donmar question in turn 11 particular person was hit at close range by the mob in other people hospitalized the Hospital Authority says more than 50 people have got to hospital with injuries after todays various assemblies and protests where police and protesters have clashed or beijing has other problems too the trade war between china and the us continues to damage the worlds 2 largest economies whats described as the repression and abuse away go muslims in western china is another major issue Human Rights Watch estimates at least a 1000000 people are held in socalled reeducation camps where theyre forced to abandon their culture and praise the government and china is also condemned for its territorial disputes with various countries bordering the South China Sea china has created manmade islands and built military bases. Oh and well lets bring in our guests now for todays inside story from hong kong we have. Professor at Hong Kong Baptist university and author of china tomorrow democracy or dictatorship and on skype from Seoul South Korea gordon chang political analyst and author of the coming collapse of china thank you gentlemen for being on inside story. With you to what extent have the rallies in hong kong spoiled beijing celebrations and could hong kong be the single spark that starts to pay the prairie fire for beijing. I think the protests in hong kong succeeded in supporting the show of the national day of the peoples republic of china and today you had these huge parade in beijing this morning. What the International Media going going to remember about today will be the violence in the home cohen and the ongoing political causes him. Many of the issues which have been raised by the protests has. Remained to be solved and i think today by the level of violence which has been reached on both sides of the protests aside but also the police side weve entered a new ballgame things are getting more complicated fall i think kerry and im the chief executive to get out of the crisis according to hang in so you wrote in a recent article that Chinas Communist Party has metal to celebrate and chinese leader is no longer in control of their destiny the same way why well what youve seen is in hong kong we certainly dont control the streets anymore because we have what looks like open warfare including what may be a Fatal Shooting of an 18 year old and that will trigger a new round of violence you know we have seen in prior history going back to millennia chinese regimes have unraveled often from the outside in including the last regime the ching dynasty so you know right now i think that siege and things got to be a little bit worried you know people in china are not sympathetic with the hong kong protesters but they certainly could be inspired by because people on kong have gotten something theyve got the permanent withdrawal of the extradition belt and people on the mainland may say well ive got groups as well so i think its going to be a very difficult time who are out of siege and think i had a difficult time going in you say but interesting me. Beijing has let these protests in hong kong continue and probating supporters do have a point when they say that if Mainland China really wanted to intervene and influence hong kongs affairs then they wouldnt we wouldnt see these continuing protests in hong kong its been nearly 4 months now all these demonstrations why do you think china has been reluctant to intervene directly i take a different view of this centrally which youve got. China not being able to influence events you know they could of course bring in the military but if they were to do that i think theyd be in for years if not decades of essentially it a rule of campaign so i there would be casualties that would be high on both sides so i actually think that china right now is in a position where it realizes it cant influence whats going on in hong kong and is really just a bystander well lets bring in our 3rd guest now from beijing whos just joined us on skype i know our tongan whos a china political analyst who advises the Chinese Government on economic and Development Issues i know thank you very much for being with us president xi jinping said in his speech at theres no force that can shake the status of this great nation i wonder what is going through the chinese leaders ships mind when on this significant day they see the chaos thats been going on in the streets of hong kong. Well you notice that he referenced 841 which was the beginning of the century of humiliation that was when a Great Britain actually forcibly seized hong kong was part of the spoils of the 1st opium war Great Britains chance to be the great drug dealer to china so this is this whole display everything about it was to assure the people that the integrity of china was protected and that they would not be in essence vassals to a colonial power ever again now in terms of my last colleagues statements quite frankly the reason that china is being very reserved is a you know its partially a trap they feel very strongly that this is being instigated by forces especially from us and that this is something where they want the u. S. Wants china to go in there with an armed response with way so that it can be claiming that yes look china is a rule dictator so they understand that this is the game thats being played and they are trying their best to maintain distance and have faith in the once one country 2 systems ok john pakistan your thoughts on that why do you think china hasnt intervened in hong kong i mean in 1909 the town amends plan massacre saw prodemocracy protesters killed to aid in town and men and this of course prime stock china and International Isolation why do you think theyve been more we not tend to step in this time. I think because hong kong is not China Hong Kong with a special place which was returned to china 22 years ago hong kong political culture dominant political culture is very much democratic. Mediated by liberal values now of course you can choose a british having in cool created in the mind of the people liberal values but this is jewish and it is and it does Mainland China can convert Hong Kong Society to the one party system thats why you have this clash of values between Hong Kong Society and men and Chinese Society so vice versa i dont think that hong kong at this stage can really influence Mainland China no spark is going to said the fight to the prairie in the coming years but the having said that sitting pings room for maneuver in hong kong is pretty narrow because you want on the one hand to keep the one country the system formula you want to keep it credible not only for home but also for taiwan to morrow and he wants also to keep it credible because hong kong is still very important as far as a financial place for hong kong for chinese economy and for chinese credibility on the world stage and i think thats a very important for china not to bow to merge here so the now there are the options to get out of the crisis one would be to change the sea the chief executive to carry land to leave and to appoint someone else that will sort of. Actually help. If not putting an end to the crisis or at least lowering the temperature here no income the other concession that can be made as been asked for many ways many months and weeks by the protesters is to sort of purge independent commission of inquiry about Police Brutality you know calm but for the time being as you know this is the chief executive has refused to fulfill that demand before we move on to other issues let me bring in gordon chang and ask you warden what do you think chinas options may genes options in hong kong are right now and do you think that the one china 2 system policy is doomed. You know i think the system is doomed this is certainly not working Chinese Communist cannot leave well enough alone there would be no protests of beijing did not try to encroach on autonomy and clearly weve seen siege and gangs interest of policies fail you know i just dont see china having very many options given the situation here this is not going to be another tenement where you had you know why dont the farm where chinese armor could kill it will hong kong is very different its a dense urban landscape its got narrow roads and alleys it got high buildings which are like forts the casualties for china would be extremely high and i dont think see chimping really believes that he can sustain that so i dont think there is a military option you know sea shipping is not known for restraint and so in general so i dont see why he would be restrained in hong kong right now especially considering the challenge to chinese authorities because the kids are saying on the streets they want independence and that would be anathema you would think i would do something and if it could do something it would have done. All right in our time going in beijing lets talk about taiwan briefly i know you want to respond to what you just heard from gordon and ill let you do that but on taiwan the goal of china has been to eventually reach unify the 2 taiwan straits how achievable is that today in the current context. Well its not political but its not very viable because you have People Manufacturing these kinds of issues which really have less weve beijing and more to do with the economy and what i mean by that is in. Taiwan they have a stagnant economy also in hong kong which you in essence have its the top 100 families have been using that position to enrich themselves while their fellow men and women get very little the average person at the average wage in hong kong would have to work 28 years and not eat or sleep anywhere except their parents house or for one house and a very modest one at that so theyve been able to restrict land values i mean your strict building and in essence drive the prices up and this is this is what is is really driving this so all of these ideas about giving concessions and doing like this you dont do that with them up they dont have a leadership you cant negotiate every sign of weakness as in holding this this extradition treaty are only resulted in more may have so with this kind of situation this i think you know that this is democracy before our democracy is wrong these people are throwing molotov cocktails at chinese troops are growing at that that their fellow couldnt have had a medal allowed more interest on our own now couldnt go ahead you know response to that you know we have seen in the beginning of this cycle its not the kids throwing molotov cocktails it was the Excessive Force of the use by the police and indeed the reason why the rough tactics of the protesters have not drawn criticism from the masses of Current Society is because people across the society are concerned about the Police Brutality you know weve seen this today in some of those videos the Police Beating a female. Those who are not protesting on their lawyer prostrate on the ground and Police Officers are hitting them with their tensions indeed this is just something that weve seen day in day out so. You know i dont know whats going to move them arms of the young protesters but clearly the people do not want china to encroach on their autonomy and so yeah call it democracy call it whatever you want but these people have legitimate grievances ok gentlemen lets move away from hong kong for a bit if we can because there are other issues to explore here of course and one of them being the trade war between the u. S. And china cabinet stand where do things stand right now as china celebrates 70 is youve got this trade will going on and theres been a lot of talk about decoupling the worlds 2 biggest economies how much would that hurt china and the communist party leadership. Well well serve the middle of this trade war and as you know the negotiation as they are going to resume over this. Whether the they will be able to yield some results remains to be seen its likely that we were going to reach some kind of partial agreement on some issues but the fundamental issues which are opposing the u. S. And china are still there and i dont see. Both countries really reaching a deal across the board so now the question is whether they will be or the coupling of both economies i think it leads to coupling will remain partial because there are too many businesses and sectors of the economy of both sides which are interdependent of course some of the production lines of authority moved to other countries of east asia or south asia but but there are number of industries which you cant move overnight so i think both economies will remain partial the interdependent in the longer run so and thats something we have in mind because that will have some thing impact. On the negotiation and the way the both sides can reach a deal in our tongue and do you agree with that that both countries have to be interdependent to a certain extent even though weve seen china recently trying to turn to other countries in latin america for instance in argentina is decoupling that you know this decoupling thats been mentioned a lot is that china that is that something that china is seriously considering. Its not a question of considering a business and diplomacy is based on trust once the trust is lost and you cannot reply you have to move elsewhere i would agree that during this investment cycle the companies will try to run out whatever it is that they have been bested and keep it there but in terms of new investment theyre going to be looking for other places i mean your hes always announced that they can build their. G. E. Radios without any. Tech hardware or software from the u. S. And youre going to continue to see those kind of developments whats difficult to understand is that the u. S. Will be walking away from about a half trillion dollars a year in business and thats a business that will not be replaced by saying a half a trillion i mean the value American Companies make in china and south here and also what they export back to United States and what is imported back into china from United States so this is a very big number theres no market to make it up right so its a little bit strange how this is going to turn out gordon and sol and nasim to think that the americans will hurt more from this prolonged trade war with china and the chinese well do you agree with that. I certainly dont you know last year chinas merchandise trade surplus with the United States was 119. 3 percent of was overall surplus you know thats overwhelming dependence on the u. S. I mean the overriding reality is the u. S. Market and also you know were not america is not a trade dependent connally but china certainly is certainly much more trade dependent and by the way were in the trade deficit country you know one he the foreign minister says oh you know the american should remember the lessons of the Great Depression and the trade war well the lesson of the Great Depression is that trade surplus countries really get hurt in trade wars were not the trade surplus country so you know what china has a lot to lose much more than the United States of us weve got an economy which in reality it is growing faster than chinas so you know why should we worry and i are response to that i dont know whats reality reported or current you go or not and i last recall china is 6 the United States is hovering around 2 and going down you know it was you know ex