When asked that his arrest hold. Is divorced from reality plus the pandemic devastates indigenous communities across latin america. Counting the cost well now this year on. The extends its sanctions on russia european leaders say moscow isnt keeping up its end of the cease fire deal in ukraine but all the sanctions working what hope is there now to end the conflict this isnt such. Hello and welcome to the program i mean wrong the conflict in Eastern Ukraine is often called europes forgotten will separatists backed by russia have been battling the Ukrainian Army since 2014 thousands of people have been killed and one and a half 1000000 ukrainians have been displaced. Russia and ukraine signed a cease fire in the by the russian capital minsk in 2015 but european monitors say the truce has been repeatedly violated e. U. Leaders accused russia of failing to implement its side of the deal german chancellor Angela Merkel says the e. U. Has no choice now but to extend sanctions against Russias Energy financial sectors until the end of january. Or. Germany and france took stock of the continuation of the minsk agreement in view of the developments we cannot recommend that the sanctions against russia be lifted we therefore decided today in the European Council that the sanctions should be extended for another 6 months. So lets take a closer look at the measures against moscow the e. U. 1st imposed sanctions in 2014 after russia annexed ukraines region of crimea since then theyve been extended every 6 months in retaliation moscow banned the export of oil and oil products for ukraine it also stopped all food imports from the e. U. United states norway canada and australia in december pro russian separatists in ukraines government exchanged 200. 00 prisoners that exchanged came after the russian and ukrainian leaders held the 1st talks in paris and agreed on measures to deescalate the war the sanction extension follows worsening relations between russia and germany on thursday german prosecutors accused moscow of ordering the murder of a georgian man in berlin last august the victim was a former commander in chechnya russia called the accusation groundless both countries expelled each others diplomats in response chancellor merkel has also cues russia of Cyber Attacks against the german government. Lets bring in our panel joining us from moscow victor owner of it the lead expert at the center for actual politics in kiev alexy here and professor of comparative politics at kiev academy and in berlin leon effects Program Director in the International Politics department at the core before nation welcome to you all i want to start in moscow with victor all of it victor this seems to be business as usual the russians dont seem to care that the sanctions have been extended in fact theyre actually expecting them is that the right position. Well its a pragmatic position on the part of the russian government the kremlin understands very well that the sanctions that have been introduced by washington and by brussels in 2014. Following the beginning of the ukrainian crisis are not going to be lifted unless significant change is going to be made from both sides from both the mosque by both moscow and kiev and then this point neither side is people for to compromise enough to change the facts on the ground so every time the sanctions continue. The continued every 6 months government simply takes a critical stance but this is a very expected move by by brussels so. At this point moscow you know we finds itself in the bind where the Public Opinion as well as geopolitical calculations are pushing the kremlin to sit still and keep on those policies that it has pursued for the last 6 years the other things in berlin sanctions dont seem to be having the effect that the angle of merkel wants the russians not backing down is it time for a different strategy. Thank you for that question the sanctions were implemented at 1st place to also have a symbolic value to demonstrate that International Law has been violated with the annexation of crimea and the destabilisation of Eastern Ukraine so this symbolic value of course continues it shows that there are red lines which should not be crossed on the other hand the same sions are linked to the full implementation of the minsk agreements of the peace accords that have been struck this has not taken place so when it comes to the minsk negotiations the sanctions have not the effect of changing russian behavior and this is now trade of this is pursued within the framework of the not defined mode of the minsk tonics. But that changing behavior ethics ascensions is indeed not good taking place the question is what else could be a strategy would it be useful strategy to get rid of the sanctions bill in think not because exactly the symbolic value continues to be important so the sanctions policy is world over every 6 months alexey here and in care you have to fix their call theres a symbolic. Set of sanctions that its not really putting any pressure on the russians and the koreans to come to some sort of agreement meanwhile the war continues its always been called europes forgotten war what would you like to see happen. Well 1st of all i would like to correct my russian call it and to say theres no ukrainian crisis theres they erect aggression of russia against to create in cities occupation enix ation of korea korean yet and the russians their act military involvement in the dont bust. Ascensions are actually hes right to say the sensors are connected to fool implementation of means can convince by russia the sentence against aggressive behavior of a russian s 2 s. To the influence of sentients well the beginning you know if we are talking about cranium becketts yes theyre simply more sleep symbolic bentley but then it was it was expanded after the russians short m h 17 civic aircraft and of their russia moved its troops into ukrainian dont bust to the core so called sectoral sanctions and sectoral sanctions are really really important for example i can give you some figures zat into selves and in 18 of the United States expended cysts dissensions just in one day just in one day 10 zooms in each of them russian billionaires almost each from 1. 00 to 2000000000. 00 from 1. 00 to 2000000000. 00 russian incumbent nations oppression. By sentients and the low price for oil and even the problems of russia it will lead to. Very small g. D. P. Gross actually are. Not more than 2 percent per year so this is the influence of 7. Collapse in Foreign Direct Investment from 55000000000 in 2000 certainly to 2219 actually 1000000000 in 2018 and so what was there is up the russian did russia didnt change behavior thats right but russia couldnt proceed with 1st a military crash and we expand the military aggression and this is very important so it was a combination of sanctions and you creating an Army Resistance actually stopped moving over russia forwards Russian Troops into ukraine well thats interesting lets bring in. Our guest from moscow what do you think that the sanctions are symbolic but actually what they did do was freeze military tensions. This is not a. Game. To even in the eyes of russian Public Opinion for the russian government to abandon those in the socalled peoples republics who. In Eastern Ukraine who feel cultural linguistic and ethnic affinity to russia and who the russian government has said for years has been protecting from from Ukrainian Forces the russian government were to. Abandon them that would significantly impact the Approval Ratings of the russian president and members of the russian cabinet and Public Opinion doesnt matter in russia as well as in ukraine unless unless the ukrainian authorities step. Legislation for. Those in the eastern part of ukraine who have been fighting against the Ukrainian Forces unless the Ukrainian Government steps that would ensure protections of the rights of those people it would be extremely difficult for the kremlin to move forward on this matter and at this point neither side as i said is willing to take. Steps to bring this crisis and then the sanctions are concerned of course sanctions are biting. At the. Fact that some western politicians and some western Foreign Policy managers had hoped for when the started to implement them in 2014 and later but the impact on the russian economy at the same time the russian girl. A month understands very well that the sanctions are here to state and it is taking it is calculating its budget 3 its budgets in accordance with that so the russian government is no longer really thinking or hoping for the sanctions to be lifted in your time soon it is simply taking them into account the other thinks in the end is it time then to renegotiate with the russians in light of the fact that all youre really doing is rolling of the sanctions and nothing is changing on the ground in ukraine is it time for them to renegotiate the 2015 minutes agreement. Let me perhaps 1st come back to one point that has been with our colleague from moscow art i think the espec of Public Opinion that russian Public Opinion. Is concerned about the population is ukraine in Eastern Ukraine is a Public Opinion situation that the russian government has never gated itself into because it was a never too from the russian government and from muska that has been advanced are the ukraine conflict that Eastern Ukraine the population of east and put it quaint needs protection so if this is not backfiring and this constrains the room for maneuver for the kremlin this is a situation that moscow itself has created when it comes to Public Opinion there was not not a big concern in general before 2014 about the population in Eastern Ukraine in russia and other ethnic that is problematic is obviously the handing out of russian passports to citizens of Eastern Ukraine which makes it more difficult to to find an agreement and to come back to your question about negotiations i dont think its necessary to find a new agreement or to negotiate a new agreement the problem will it is about implementing the old women so there has been a formula that is called the steinway or formula advanced by the pharma or by the from a foreign minister and now the president of germany how to implement these agreements what is the sequence what do you do 1st and which part and by which side which to which steps are taking so the new look you quit in president alinsky has accepted this formula and he has brought into his office the political will to implement the agreements he had baby steps and positive with. Reconstruction of the bridge put the next changes but we are not yet at the core of this issue so we really need to get into deep negotiations it wouldnt help to draft a new we meant you need to dig deep into engage deeply both sides into the. With the existing the right now the e. U. Washington brussels can even get the russians to the negotiating table is simply just rolling over these sanctions alexy iran in kiev do you think its time for renegotiation of the minsk agreement or do you think like a guest in berlin was saying its simply time for the russians to adhere to the already greenman the agreement is already in place. Well 1st of all let me point out we in ukraine sink its not correct to talk about supporting flicked in Eastern Ukraine is the new green is peaceful. Is instant dont buy us dont bust all sorts of dont bust our control by ukraine once earth is occupied by a russian army and xeres a song called puppet peoples republic up perfectly but this comprise only city percent of ukrainian serape assent so lets not talk about Eastern Ukraine again Eastern Ukraine ease peaceful Eastern Ukraine east but this is me thinking you creating an economic and Political Development but 3 percent of ukrainian territory occupied and under the russian russian control this sequence yet about minsky greetings look problem is that actually we may talk a lot about means concrete means but the provision number one in minsk chremes east 0 should be ceasefire. To come into force in september 2 solves and 14 and there is no cease fun for very simple reason to think is not interested you know putin would like to create saloons in zimbabwe or you create what you would like to exhaust you create why because ukraine is the walkers and because of said that you know it was a demonstration example of ukraines that we cant you let our own president and Parliament Well let the president s elevenths you who was quite naive to believe since he may start a really good she can start. Negotiations with president selenski said its very simple. Just stop killing just stop shooting and its not talked to yet so so there are more whale ations of cease fire and the president s lenski by russia which was the previous president so each shows that the russian definitely doesnt want to stop its aggression so heres the question is yes minsk agreements are not actually say were signed by ukraine and theres a barrel of the gun because russian started in violation of all agreements russia started its aggression and direct intervention into the deep of ukrainian territory so again minsk agreements are not favorable for ukraine but to be added to food fuel just one thing is to be done number one stop shooting cease fire and thats what doesnt want to do so the important thing is to preserve sentients and to increase as i have said now we see sokol its kind of you know you have shelling every day owns a front line but Russian Troops doesnt have possibility to move deep into the 3rd if there is of ukraine and one reason for them sentients so they are very improper important and they got into the situation in crimea is a better use of crimean sentients should also be expecting expanded because of what russia is doing gratia is changing demography of crania they brought more than one half more than half a 1000000 of russian citizens from russia into crimea in order to change demographics it teaches zealots who are getting interest. Or you get a reaction now from moscow youve heard. Of its what alexi was. In kiev what is the kremlin going to think of that perspective does it want to change its behavior given the fact that there seems to be a steadfastness from the Ukrainian Government well as far as what are they actually said about 30 percent of ukrainian territory this conflict is important enough to be the focus of attention not just of the Ukrainian Government but also of the russian government and also of the leading western governments both the American Government and european capitals so it is a significant issue it is a significant problem multiple sides which multiple sides are looking in the regular manner now to what kremlin is looking to in this matter at this point there is no real hope for significant change in the near future with president zedillo assuming the top post in kiev. Both moscow and kiev have been able to come to several agreements on prisoner exchanges and these have been large significant prisoner exchanges that have been frozen in the last year of. President. Rule in kiev so that has been. There have been efforts to alleviate their human youth and situation in some ways but it is true that. Despite. Efforts to bring on a long term cease fire it has been difficult to achieve it has not been shown that it is possible to achieve at this point the accusations are flying on both sides i do agree with my colleague in barely and that the situation with Public Opinion in russia is partially selfinflicted that is true and whats important to see here to note here is that the people in russia that support the peoples republic so and their cause the most are part of which is electoral beasts they are not part of the opposition or other groups and it is that it is important for put in to and for that our National Government to make to take their opinions into consideration so yes you know we its a selfmade. It is selfinflicted but the russian government has to live or that now well lets bring in the ana figs in berlin youve heard both i guess that youve heard victors say that russia simply is too powerful and its doing what it needs to do to satisfy Public Opinion home youve heard alexey here and he have saying the minsk agreement was actually signed at the barrel of a gun for the Ukrainian Government it wasnt fair to them the sanctions dont have teeth they dont have a bite and thats really what we seem to be hearing so is it time for Something Else a new strategy youve heard what everybody else id say i asked you that question earlier can i ask you again after hearing whats going here of that do you think it is time for a new and a radical change in the way we look at this conflict. I honestly do think that the mens agreements are the best chance to ukraine to solve this conflict and do think what is necessary if you want to think about some sort of broader was aleutian of the conflict to look at it differently may mean those are discussions that we had at the beginning of the trunk with it and see when people were afraid that he would sort of turn over the table and come up with completely new proposals of course it is possible to look at things from a new direction but then you need some sort of positive impa