The bottom line. Hi im Steve Clements and i have a question well the coronavirus pandemic be the Tipping Point that takes us into years of joblessness and poverty lets get to the bottom line. When we look around we see a lot of people who cant find work and a lot of businesses that have gone bust but there are some winners out there it seems like the Financial Markets are always winning at least from my Vantage Point economists usually say that they saw what was coming after the fact there are always rationalizations for the ups and downs of markets or of jobless rates of consumer and Business Confidence but lets take a look at the big picture my guest today is not afraid to go where many economists wont and to look at the key factors out there that predict a really serious financial and to some degree even social and environmental meltdown affecting each and every one of us all over the world hes not known as dr doom for nothing nuria were being he predicted the us Real Estate Market crash 3 years before everything came tumbling down in 2008 professor roubini teaches economics and International Business at New York University and he joins us from new york today nouriel thanks so much for joining us i was very very taken with mainstreet manifesto it seemed to sort of break through the noise that there is a stacked deck against people on a lot of fronts well before the pandemic hit and the pandemic is in a sense sped up history and you continue to find people that are not going to be winners in this and the system slowly coming undone even if there are flirtations with what looks like you know growth etc tell us what. The the real message behind main street manifesto was when the reality is that globalization 3 Migration Technology many factors that lead to an increase in income men wont inequality after the Global Financial crises for him slash jobs and when they start at the reality of people who are not full time jobs or the formal employment of full benefits they were mostly contractors freelancers big or careers hourly workers higher than workers so we had a huge amount of job and income and certainly for labor the share of profit has gone up the share of labor income sol and and this time around i think its going to be even worse because the conditions of their corporate sector today are much worse than they where after the Global Financial crisis so we have shared in 3 months in us more jobs than we create than the previous 10 years and i think itll be a repeat of the same if and when firms are going to start to hire again its going to be in ways that the same surely out of precarious jobs that part time that hourly that i get were it and so on and so on so we have created their vast underclass of what an economist guy standing up call their breakout yet instead of their lonely 30 at their young people and theyre not just necessarily minorities like africanamericans or latinos there is a vast underclass of White America that there is that job less income less skill less hope less less weve that no assets and these are actually struggling as much as anybody else who ever had their opulent that epidemic in the United States with 80000 young people dying every year of all over those and a majority of them are actually these part of these white underclass so when i saw these at the Proper Office in the most regime and riots after their killing on. George floyd yes it was about black lives not there it was also about Racial Justice but was also about Economic Justice and even a bit of the new york where every day there are the most racially of thousands of young kids going in prague this thing and i actually almost 80 percent of them are white or not black and latino on me because there is this a biased underclass of young people that are on the innate that are frustrated they dont have jobs epic ideas jobs and they feel there is no future for them so its a revolution of their breakout yeah but rather than a march on a problem for the arts well you and Thomas Piketty and there are a number of other writers as you just mentioned who had to the writer who mention precariat hat have seen these tensions these economic tensions but the mainstay that the mainstream of acknowledge those are out there every day investing in the markets talking about you know 4000000 new jobs being created even though 44000000 people are unemployed officially from this what does it take the economics profession to get beyond these blind spots so that that they see what you see well you know many people are looking only at the stock market but wall street and main street are different interests was state represents a big firms big stack big banks while main street is housed holds is a war curse and these are Small Businesses and whats good for was that unfortunately is bad for main street because theyre way more storms are going to survive and thrive and achieve the early start of good of wall street that this see the is by slashing their cost and what are the costs that slashing that we should be labor costs but your labor cost is my labor income and my consumption and you know and s. And p. 500 is going to your eyes because the big firms are going to become bigger while millions of Small Business says great they are sharps Small Enterprises are going to go bust. That the market share big stack and big business is going to rise so people usually think that was that it means that the same interest aware very early a social cost conflict right now whats good for was these bait the bait for main street and unfortunately if we dont there are changes in Economic Policy in a more direction that this progress even in blue is a bit then the success of was that it is going to come at the expense of main street and whats happening right now is that those who are suffering are workers are consumers our households are Small Businesses one big business is becoming even more powerful or even more of the police that you know more concentration of economic financial and other types of political power now you have written that globalization is coming apart that nationalism is rising walls are back its going to be harder to move people and ideas and money and institutions across lines like used to be the case is this not a possible fix for the mainstream problem doesnt this move an economy to begin looking at what you need in your own economy as opposed to buying it cheaply somewhere else or in a place that has low environmental regulations while they can if its done in their progressive any pathogen way. In many ways that protection is 1st of all her work areas as consumers because it increases the price of import that goods cheaply from china manage up saw as a consumer youre going to be worse off so its a very regressive tax tool even if we are going to have every shoring of Economic Activity from china to the United States big business going to decide to have factories that are fully out to make that weve roberts so we may create more production more profits im not sure were going to create jobs unless we have seen incentives to create that labor and jobs in this kind of things and migration in many ways that is good for us. Merik up as brought up on earth ship brought people that initiative as brought people like myself and the others when it comes to be a threat to society so putting a wall of tidy the center wall of block immigration doesnt resolve the fundamental problem that people need education the skills the the Human Capital in need to survive and thrive in the digital and globalized economy and by the way even if tomorrow we were to ever want so nobody can get in the United States even if read on a percent cut in from foreign goods technology in the future is going to these are many jobs more than a make grecian or globalization im fraid of your one example if and when were about animals because you have millions of better only if drivers than to be without jobs youll have millions of our Truck Drivers are not going to have jobs of the next 10 Years Technology rather than train the globalization of migration has got to be the big theres a out there of income and jobs and no working in covers so we have to think about how we make sure that people can survive and thrive in this Digital Economy otherwise were fighting their wars of the past rather than the wars of the future look you worked in the Clinton White house in fact i think i 1st met you when you worked in the National Economic council in the Clinton White house i was in the senate of the times you know how this town works you know about policy and politics and ive been fascinated by you know the bravado of donald trump on one hand being the populist president a stand simply responding to these workers you just talked about who fear for their jobs the fear for their families but yet you said hes not that at all well you know iran is a populist but once in power is governed as a plutocrat so hes not there and populists is a clued up populist essentially a plutocrat thats pretended to be a populous if you look at the economic policies they have been all against the economic interests of is a blue collar. Is that vote that for in his policies on taxation reducing corporate taxes and taxes for the wealthy is policies of trying to repeal obamacare is policies of loosening up a regulation that the friend laboring unions as ali says about the environment everything yes done has been against the working class and the income and jobs of the working class and yes pretend that if we have a leader of the 5 on 3 that weve china or if were just it migration were going to resolve the American Economy that we create that but the result of that we need inclusive growth we need progress in taxation we need to invest into infrastructure roads ports bridges that are crumbling we have to invest into our 3 future were to do things that provide their workers with this heres a new the occasion theyre going to be able to. Survive and thrive in this globalized impeach the world yes done nothing of that hes been talking about the infrastructure plan not paying is being spent so is it true the populace is really plutocrats are wearing the ships cloth of a populist but is not the populist well hes been blasting china as you pointed out hes been blasting. Away and saying we cant have their 5 g. M. Betted into American Communications infrastructure or into cities and theyve got to be other choices but there are no other options that we make these we dont make these systems in the United States europe makes them but id be interested in in where we go with that when you look at these this next wave of sr a certain degree opportunity you know the internet of things vast move me of data that america has no players in it while its shutting down one of the key providers its embedded in that business know youre right you know we need to be out there at 5 jim at work about theres either the chinese one day while we wait and we were about the back door to the Chinese Government but there is only a nakia maddux on that are europe. And by the way the chinese money is 30 percent cheaper and 20 percent more efficient so ought to be in that 5 g. Network without y. Way by having it active right between us and china is going to cost us 50 percent more and where we have lost the technology will be that we had of course where many private sector Tech Companies are doing well whether think that that whether its going to be president for the next they can we have to think about that in industrial policy for the United States you know germany as industrial policy 4. 0 for our world is going to be based on robotics out of may shown by Machine Learning big date the internet of thing so this there revolution is darker regardless of but which provide people with this has to be able to be successful when we dont have works of that the right types of skills and therefore that you marginalize jobs like umberger for the pink or low low Wage Services so you have to invest into your people you have to invest into your physical infrastructure you have to invest in your Digital Infrastructure we have a plan we need a plan to make sure that people in sex it otherwise our work is going to be left behind even more than the past i would advise my viewers to go look at your twitter stream i do it most every day and you get snapshots of other subterranean things like a comment and dislodgement you know most recently wrote you referenced antartica and so its not just an economic fragility that youre dealing with were looking at environmental fragility even social fragility and youre predicting that were going to have a very very hard decade that were going to enter in a period which is you know catastrophic only worse in some ways than the Great Depression tell us what you see coming when i do worry that were at the very severe recession that maybe for a quarter since we start from a very low base is going to look like a rocket arc already Something Like a. The well by next year is going to be like a you will because there is this birth that not private them public thats it theyre affecting Economic Uncertainty the risk of verge on him people not wanted to spend very much and were going to have it 1st wave in a 2nd wave and so on and therefore there is going to be coming at you and that you can eventually become a w at the top of the press sascha especially if we have a severe 2nd wave and that there w. K. End up internet integrate that depression and ive discussed in summer maybe some write in there are 10 deadly drivers are these rapture and of potentially a depression we have what i call deadly disease one is that that and that is its that eventually going to lead to the fall and the 2nd one is demographic in aging that is increasing lots of implicitly beat up governments including those from having to take care of the core of it another and then mix then we have the basement of currencies as we monetize large discount that its to avoid their deflation initially is the felician of their venture early is going to be stacked lation where is the good of these raptures going to rob the county these are jobs and income an entire industry is coming from the kanada gee where is that the market the marcus the backlash as we are parents arent a populist theyre in power and in what are you and the policies we have or sort digital warfare of the wars of the future are going to be based on cyber warfare not on call mention a war and then we have that these that deadly manmade disasters and i call them mind me theyre not that the Natural Disaster because there is nothing natural about Global Climate change that is in not being natural even about the pandemics and this band then is going to become a more of a go into the future in the last 30 years rev ag 1st day back to change the then we had best cyrus then went maris swine threw it on that seek up now carve it and were destroying because of the. About Climate Change the abit out of many months and then animals are encroaching on other animals and theyre getting closer to human beings and the air these are nick transfer of diseases from the animals to humans this is not matter and it is a game having to do with this fraction are not totally environment so the communication of all the is that me for a sense may imply that unless we change radically our policies we could end up into or not just a great that recession like the one we had the 0 greater than the Global Financial crisis but we have that risk of a greater depression a depression worse than the one within the 1000 there are these. Well i think one of the questions i have because you know i remember the 1990 s. I remember working in the senate and we had the benefits of a fast growing economy but you saw our people losing benefits you saw people being asked to live in a turbo charged economy without turbo charged protections and so this is been going on for quite a while and so i guess the unfair question is as youre going very quickly over the cliff what can stop going over the cliff when so many forces have come together to do that but im going to ask you that if you were to be in charge and begin looking at how you undo some of the trends that are taking us into this terrible place what are some of those things weak we could seriously consider well i think in the 1st things i said that we have to invest in still human copy where there is globalization or technology that bit this rupture on the entire jobs skills in this that isnt firms so you have to provide the skills to people so they can be able to deal with globalization and we have these technological is an option everybody should be starting somebody and of stamina Science Technology engineering computing coding and you name it it was just the teaching according to kids as soon as we did it teach them english or whatever language that learning is the language of the future we had crumbling infrastructure is in the United States and rebuilding this infrastructure is going to