Government has shifted focus from saving lives to save the economy counting the cost on aljazeera. Hi im Steve Clemons and i have a question well the coronavirus pandemic be the Tipping Point that takes us in to years of joblessness and poverty lets get to the bottom line. When we look around we see a lot of people who cant find work and a lot of businesses that have gone bust but there are some winners out there it seems like the Financial Markets are always winning at least from my Vantage Point economists usually say that they saw what was coming after the fact there are always rationalizations for the ups and downs of markets or of jobless rates of consumer and Business Confidence but lets take a look at the big picture my guest today is not afraid to go where many economists wont and to look at the key factors out there that predict a really serious financial and to some degree even social and environmental meltdown affecting each and every one of us all over the world hes not known as dr doom for nothing nuria were being he predicted the us Real Estate Market crash 3 years before everything came tumbling down in 2008 professor roubini teaches economics and International Business in New York University and he joins us from new york today nouriel thanks so much for joining us i was very very taken with main street manifesto it seemed to sort of break through the noise that there is a stacked deck against people on a lot of fronts well before the pandemic hit and the pandemic is in a sense sped up history and you continue to find people that are not going to be winners in this in the system slowly coming undone even if there are flirtations with what looks like you know growth etc tell us what the the real message behind main street manifesto was well the reality is that globalization 3. Acknowledge there are many factors that lead to an increase in the eco maam whats in it all of us are the Global Financial cries is firm slush jobs and when thats not. That the reality of people who are not full time jobs or the formal employment of full benefits there were mostly contractors freelancers bigorre careers hourly workers hired and workers so we had a huge amount of job and income and certainly for labor the share of profit has gone up the share of labor income sol and and this time around i think its going to be even worse because the conditions of their corporate sector today are much worse than they where after the Global Financial crisis so we have shed in 3 months in the us more jobs than we create in the previous 10 years and i think itll be a repeat of the same if and when firms are going to start to hire again its going to be in ways that the same surely out of precarious jobs that part time that hourly that i get wore it and so on and so on so we have created their vast underclass of what an economist guy standing up call their breakout yet instead of their planet money at their young people and theyre not just necessarily minorities like africanamericans or latinos there is a vast underclass of White America that there is that job less income less skill less hope less out less we have that no assets and these are actually struggling as much as anybody else who ever had their opulent that epidemic in the United States where 80000 young people dying every year of all over those emma and majority of them are actually these part of these white underclass so when i saw that these are the Proper Office and the most racially member riots after their killing on back door slight yes it was about that black lives not there it was also about Racial Justice but was also about Economic Justice and even a bit of the new york where every day where the most racially of thousands of young kids going in prague this thing and i actually almost 80 percent of them are white or not black and latino on the. Because there is there is a bust on the class of young people that are on the an 8 that are frustrated they dont have jobs epic ideas jobs and they feel there is no future for them so its a revolution of their breakout a yacht rather than a march on a problem for the arts well you and Thomas Piketty and there are a number of other writers as you just mentioned who had to the writer who mention precariat hat have seen these tensions these economic tensions but the mainstay that the mainstream of acknowledge those are out there every day investing in the markets talking about you know 4000000 new jobs being created even though 44000000 people are unemployed officially from this what does it take at the economics profession to get beyond these blind spots so that that they see what you see well you know many people looking only at the stock market but wall street and main street every different interests was state represents a big firms big stack big banks one main street is hauser olds is a war curse and these are Small Businesses and whats good for was that unfortunately is bad for main street because theyre way more storms are going to survive and thrive and achieve the early start of good of wall street thought this see they is by slashing their cost and what are the costs that slashing that we should be labor costs but your labor cost is my labor income and my consumption and you know up and s. And p. 500. 00 is going to you are highs because the big firms are going to become bigger while millions of Small Business says great they are sharps Small Enterprises are going to go bust and the market share big back in big business is going to rise so people usually think that was that it means that the same interest aware very early a social cost conflict right now whats good for was these bait the bait for main street and unfortunately if we dont there are changes in Economic Policy in a more direction that is progress. If an employer was able then the success of was that is going to come at the expense of main street then whats happening right now is that those who are suffering are workers are consumers our households are Small Businesses one big business is becoming even more powerful or even more of the police the earmark concentration of economic financial and other types of political power now you have written that globalization is coming apart that nationalism is rising walls are back its going to be harder to move people and ideas and money and institutions across lines like used to be the case is this not a possible fix for the mainstream problem doesnt this move an economy to begin looking at what you need in your own economy as opposed to buying it cheaply somewhere else or in a place that has low environmental regulations while it can if its done in their progressive any package and way. In many ways that protection is 1st of all hurts work areas as consumers because it increases the price of import that goods cheaply from china manage up saw as a consumer youre going to be worse off so its a very regressive tax tool even if we are going to have every shoring of Economic Activity from china to the United States big business going to decide to have factories that are fully out to make that weaver our butts so we may create more production more profits im not sure were going to create jobs unless we have seen incentives to create that labor and jobs that in this kind of things and migration in many ways that is good for america up as brought to happen there up on earth ship brought people that initiative as brought people like myself and others who have come to be a threat to society so putting their wallet of tiree at center while block immigration doesnt resolve the fundamental problem that people need education the skills the the human capitana need to sort of my. Didnt try in a digital link globalized economy and by the way even if tomorrow we were to ever want so nobody can get in the United States even if read on a percent cut in from foreign goods technology in the future is going to these are many jobs more than a make grecian or globalization thread of your one example if and when were about animals because you have millions of better only if drivers than to be without jobs youll have millions of our Truck Drivers are not going to have jobs of the next 10 Years Technology rather than train the globalization of migration has got to be the big theres out there of income and jobs and no working in covers so we have to think about how we make sure that people can survive and thrive in this Digital Economy otherwise were fighting their wars of the past rather than the wars of the future look you worked in the Clinton White house in fact i think i 1st met you when you worked in the National Economic council in the Clinton White house i was in the senate of the times you know how this town works you know about policy and politics and ive been fascinated by you know the bravado of donald trump on one hand being the populist president a stand simply responding to these workers you just talked about who fear for their jobs the fear for their families but yet you said hes not that at all well you know iran is a populist but once in power is governed as a plutocrat so hes not there populists is a clued up populist essentially a plutocrat thats pretended to be a populous if you look at the economic policies they have been all against the economic interests of is a blue collar base that bought that for in his policies on taxation reducing corporate taxes and taxes for the wealthy is policies of trying to repeal obamacare is policies of loosening up a regulation that the friend laboring unions as ali says about the environment everything yes done has been against their. Working class and the income and jobs of the working class and yes pretend that if we have a leader of the 5 on 3 that weve china or if were just it migration were going to resolve the American Economy to recreate that but to resolve that we need inclusive growth we need progress in taxation we need to invest into infrastructure roads ports bridges that are crumbling we have to invest into our future rip to do things that provide their workers with this heres a new the occasion theyre going to be able to. Survive and thrive in these globalized impeach the world yes done nothing of that hes been talking about the infrastructure plan not a penny has been spent so is it true the populace is really plutocrats are wearing the ships cloth of a populist but is not the populist well hes been blasting china as you pointed out hes been blasting. Away and saying we cant have their 5 g. M. Betted into American Communications infrastructure or into cities and theyve got to be other choices but there are no other options that we make these we dont make these systems in the United States europe makes them but id be interested in in where we go with that when you look at these this next wave of sr to certain degree opportunity you know the internet of things vast move me of data that america has no players in it while its shutting down one of the key providers its embedded in that business know youre right you know we need to be out there at 5 jim at work about theres either the chinese one day while we wait and we were about the back door to the Chinese Government but there is only a nakia maddux on that our european and by the way the chinese one is 30 percent cheaper and 20 percent more efficient so ought to be of the 5 g. Network without y. Way by having it active right between us and china is going to cost us 50 percent more and where we have lost the technology will be that we had of course we have many private Sector Company or. Well i think that that whether its going to be president for the next they can we have to think about that in industrial policy for the United States you know germany as in thats the policy for point not for our world is going to be based on robotics out of may shown by Machine Learning big they internet of think so this is their revolution is darker regardless of but which provide people with this has to be able to be successful when we dont have works of that the right types of skills and therefore that you marginalize jobs like umberger for the pink or low low Wage Services so you have to invest into your people you have to invest into your physical infrastructure you have to message your Digital Infrastructure we have a plan we need a plan to make sure that people in sex it otherwise our work is going to be left behind even more than the past i would advise my viewers to go look at your twitter stream i do it most every day and you get snapshots of other subterranean things like a comment and dislodgement you know most recently wrote you referenced antarctica and so its not just an economic fragility that youre dealing with were looking at environmental fragility even social fragility and youre predicting that were going to have a very very hard decade that were going to enter in a period which is you know catastrophic we worse in some ways than the Great Depression tell us what you see coming when i do worry that were at the very severe recession that maybe for a quarter since we start from a very low base is going to look like a rocket arc already Something Like it we will be next is going to be like a you because there is this burden not private them public thats not affecting Economic Uncertainty risk aversion in people not wanting to spend very much and were going to have a 1st wave in a 2nd wave and so on and therefore that is going to become e. U. And the euro can eventually be. Come adopted you a double dip recession especially when its the beer. Second wave and that bad diabetic and up and down as integrate that the pressure on and ive discussed some of my recent writing that are time that need drivers are these are optional one and are potentially a depression we have or what i call of time that media is one is that type and that to say that events are going to be the fault of the 2nd one is demographic and aging that increasing lots of employees like the government including those from having to take care of the coby that mother and i makes then we have the basement of currencies that we monetize large discover that since its to avoid that this ration initially they play some of that and surely it is going to be speculation we have been vigilant these are optional going to rob the county these robbed jobs and income and entire industries coming from technology where be is that the market democracy backlash as we have heard the terms of populist empower and what are you and the policies we are better or so the just out war started the wars of the future are going to be based on cyber warfare not on commands in a war and then we have that these that deadly manmade disasters and i call them mind made in either the Natural Disaster because there is nothing natural about Global Climate change that is not being not even about the fund that mix and this pandemic going to become a motivator in the future in the last 30 years rev ag for save i v then we had best start then red mare swine flu a bomb not the god now called me and where this drawing because of Global Climate change the abby thought of manning animals and then on the mother encroaching on our ban on emos and then theyre getting closer to human beings than the these on a transfer of the nieces from the animals to humans this is not natural game having to do with the big rocks on our Natural Environment so the combination of all the. Before as that may imply that i left we change radically our policies we could end up into a not just a great government session like the one we had these year and greater than the Global Financial crisis but we have that risk of a Great Depression a depression worse than the one within the one thing there are these. Well i think one of the questions i have because you know i remember the 1990 s. I remember working in the senate and we had the benefits of a fast growing economy but you saw our people losing benefits you saw people being asked to live in a turbo charged economy without turbo charged protections and so this is been going on for quite a while and so i guess the unfair question is as youre going very quickly over the cliff what can stop going over the cliff when so many forces have come together to do that but im going to ask you that if you were to be in charge and begin looking at how you undo some of the trends that are taking us into this terrible place what are some of those things weak we could seriously consider well i think in the 1st things i said that we have to invest in still human copy where there is globalization or technology that bit is rupture on the entire jobs skills in this that isnt firms so you have to provide the skills to people so they can be able to deal with globalization and we have these technological is an option everybody should be starting somebody and of Stem Science Technology engineering computing coding and you name it it was just not teaching according to kids or as soon as we did it teach them english or whatever language that learning is the language of the future we had crumbling infrastructure is in the United States and rebuilding this infrastructure is going to be important to grease the private sector productivity we know that Global Climate change is going to beat the massive cost and losses and actually many of the technology that can change Global Climate change came beat and the labor intensive if we have that soil our finals on every building every home around that are those are kind of labor intensive jobs like many other types of green jobs by them it just that made the commitment to spend 2 trillion dollars on infrastructure and on the Green Economy so up where they may. Same to our people in our human copy thought into the physical infrastructure into the Green Infrastructure into the Digital Infrastructure and also in our institutional infrastructure because the social copycat out in the United States is fraying as we have a source of division there i being from rising income and wealth inequality by so many people being left behind becoming angry ill get make that frustrate that i mean environment in a in some cases so unless were to be in our own social fabric will be even more divided so there is a huge amount of investment i have to do to avoid that depression but with our current with on with that i mean you and i have both d been around for a long time im sad to say but weve been around weve seen a lot weve seen protests and i guess and you know history and i guess one of the questions when i read your material i say well you know inequality has been building for a while weve seen revolutions in the past weve seen plutocrats and and you know all of our key stablish in the past what do you think is making this particular time different than these other moments where weve had protests but not change. Well they make is to different days that i think that day amount of income and live inequality especially in the United States that reach level that are really politically and socially unsustainable and you have both on the writing that people who are maybe socially and rigidly conservatives are left behind where betty High School Degree that youre still bought for tramping feels they thought they were going through bodies but they have been to the point that and of course even on the left side the people that voted for banning found that of what i mean about what i am for or see on Democratic Party are looking for change so i think that progressive policies are necessary because the number of people that are left behind there are losers where feeling frustrated that doggin 8 that when they warn about their own income about their own jobs about their own child but about the future art is driving the share of profit the rising the share of labor income is falling economic and social uncertainties are increasing that is not going to be Economic Opportunity and social mobility in the United States those web scales and that copy dogs are doing while everybody else is being left behind and its not just the United States for the last year where they must pray sean m. For office and ryo all over latin america in the middle east in parts of asia up in abundance economies like in france i mean semi in their emerging markets so i think that the web growth by the a phenomenon which that is my sense is an option coming from both technology from freed from globalization and there are some winners and losers and not dilute the becoming a majority and that either voting for a popular spot or that these are opting for the show are not a sprint product is and they want to change the ones a world in which capital is not the one whos winning by labor and i hope and im actually doing that angela social im rising thats even wars good that revolution. Thats what happened in the past so we have to do something to avoid social and political instability no real i want to ask you to be a futurist about your future isnt to look past the 20 twenties and really gloomy prognosis that youve given this time to the 20 thirtys is there someone out there some nation that impresses you thats beginning to get these shows social cohesion questions right to merge in technology the trends that you think will emerge out of that gloom and come in stronger and im really asking will the u. S. Have had its suez moment will another nation or region demonstrate a very different model than were. Seeing today where there are some current is that doing the right things i think that some of the nordic countries this company even ones are adopting the right the early new technologies like in sweden caches these appear Payment System are all of the egypt are theres an option of all these technologies but they have also very very wide social welfare system so that if youre losing your job you have a good Education Skills or retraining your pension and yet how care youre Free Education and therefore if just by bad luck youre falling down you dont have a chance to rebound so some of the nordic country are doing the right thing some countries in emerging asia also have policies like singapore or not theres theyre not investing in the future of their people while adopting technology and time as they climbing population but these investing a lot in robotics and automation and the decline in population is going to compensate that by using more machines so you have to be creative but provide people do this here that allowed them to be able to use technology as opposed to having a greater Digital Divide between the outset thats not so that there are more that they can work on while Nouriel Roubini thank you so much for sharing your insights with us today on the bottom line and i look forward to seeing where all this goes hopefully. Better than you predict but you know i buy your prognosis and i want to encourage people to check out main street manifesto it was real eyeopener for me thank you so much pleasure being rebuked. So whats the bottom line there were already bad trends piling up against folks trying to hold their lives together before the Global Pandemic hit and destabilize them even more some things are never going to change the middle class theyre always going to be squeezed the rich theyll get richer and the poor even when they do everything theyre supposed to do to get ahead they just cant catch a break inequality is going to remain with us nationalism is going to keep rising our quality of life is going to fall as isolationism takes over and over here now antarctica is melting my guest is right that it would take a massive systemic correction to turn around the ship and the chances of that happening right now are highly unlikely were going to have rough waters buckle up and thats sadly the bottom line. The coronavirus may have full stuff to change the full pot of head to head for the time being but that would stop me doing robust interviews with challenging direct questions in a u. S. Election year ill be seeking accountability from both sides of the political spectrum on whos to blame for the horrific coronavirus desktop on how to fix the Us Health Care system and whether the war of words with china is entering a new and dangerous phase join me may the awesome 1st special series of head to head on aljazeera. Growing dark and harsh and unforgiving circumstances children learn to play dangerous games they exist without studies that destroy the house and take worn down by frustration and broken promises young men living under the constant threat of imprisonment they took me to the cheap and blindfolded me the time for them to regain control of their lives is when the boys returned prison life going out. On aljazeera. The politics of division have pushed india into the grip of a historical reckoning i am afraid to be closing on minorities and me im afraid could lead to these ideas come from the tragedy of more lives how much weve tried to set a place for getting it was born a happy family over the course of joining me on to shall see you on the final part of my journey when i to become a target of the hindu 1st policy in such of india seoul on aljazeera on the deserted streets of theyve become from the of your figures couriers on bicycles delivering food or medicine to lock down colombians most of them here are venezuelan migrants they might go in with some mother of 4 says contagion is always on her mind none of them receive Health Insurance for their work and exposing themselves and very few seem to have it yet there may be a bright side people. Looked down on them as a skilled migrants now say theyre essential to control the virus and receive messages on the scene that we are you know so i was a nurse back home what i am doing is not all that different from my passion helping others. How do i get adrian fenty getting here in doha with a summary of the main news on aljazeera more than a 1000000 people have now been affected by the corona virus in India Several states of reimposed lockdowns to try to contain the spreads more than 25000 deaths have been reported infections in the us of says another record but the government is trying to block an attempt to stop it spreading brian camp in georgia wants a judge to overturn an order by a plant as mayor for everyone in the city to wear masks the dispute comes as another 70000 cases will confront on thursday the highest daily tally aljazeera as alan fischer
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