We have a 2nd wave of. The number of new cases around the globe and governments weighing options to face it. And what will the fallout be this is inside story. Hello welcome to the program. Just a few weeks ago many governments fall they have a coronavirus under control the number of cases was falling and the infections flattening government started lifting restrictions and reopening that economies some even praised for their successes and many people resume their daily lives but that optimism last a Record Number of infections is being reported in many countries some call it a resurgence others come back and scientists debating how to identify and define what the 2nd wave. The World Health Organization says the virus is unfolding in one big wave with no evidence it is impacted by changes in seasons and it predicts the pandemic is likely to go on for a long time. Specialists from milan china have traveled to hong kong to help contain a resurgence of the virus hong kong initially kept it in fashions down but is now being hit but whats being called a 3rd wave of infections vietnam has recorded his 1st virus related fatalities the nation was free of locally transmitted infections for 3 months but an outbreak was reported in the resort of done last week and there are fears it could spread and cope with 19 cases are hitting records nationwide in japan infections in the capital have spread to other urban areas spain is driving fears of a resurgence in Europe Health officials warn the country could already be experiencing a 2nd wave of coroner virus catalonia has closed is night life for 2 weeks friends norway and the u. K. Have imposed restrictions on people traveling to and from spain france germany belgium and look summer have all reported steep increases in cases. In australia authorities in victoria have declared a state of disaster after rising infections a nighttime curfew is being introduced and travel shopping and recreation restricted in the middle east israel had once declared it had the virus and control is now averaging more than a 1700. 00 new infections per day and ranks 5th in the world on a per capita basis just behind the United States lebanon reimpose severe curve in 1000. 00 restrictions for 2 weeks after the number of cases rose and some restrictions were established in morocco as it recorded a resurgence. Lets bring in our guests in charlot North Carolina we have marcus splasher his the chief medical officer of the association of state and territory Health Officials which represents Health Agencies across the United States in hong kong we have i was cinema she is the president of the Hong Kong Public Doctors Association and it regards morocco we have as a dinner blimey hes director of the medical Biotechnology Laboratory of the University Mohammad the 5th welcome to you all marcus florida texas are we so now becoming epicenters midwest is also hit once again. Are we talking about Mass Gatherings to blame all wrong policies or a combination of both i think its a combination of things. Clearly some of the states were states that were experimenting with shutting down or reopening am perhaps reopened a little bit early for that change in the precautions and put various components of a response and close well i think that theres just present challenges around the public gradually coming to accept some of the interventions we have or in masks and also participating in context recent. And then i think thats just general impatience which were seeing across the world q u p s shutdowns and you know people when its time to reopen people are impatient to get back and try to return to their normal lives and emigrate right now returning to normal. For quite some time i listen to how do you move from being a model that was praised by the medical community for containing the art to break into a system that could easily collapse now with the record high number of new infections what went wrong in hong kong. Arm i think in hong kong we do have a very quiet period. We have more than 20 days of 0 no call infections and everyone thinks that we are going to get really not that the seas and specially that gap and in fact the government has to go very lose or maybe i just was they like to say and careless that roache are although not our border people lets say learn. Been through or out of the shows or merchandise from a nad until it get into hong kong without any testing any current time period and then they brought in that pieces of our way to hong kong in the end of june and also our citizen in hong kong has also reason there that special control they have many social gathering someones not wearing their mas during backwards and so on and as well i do have a lot of fun cant ever im lucky this time you also in all. Elderly in camilla t. As well as in the elderly home so only just like copying what happened in the resting time tree in march and a. Lot of comedy all great laughs and not quite many are people in fact at the identifiable source and higher mortality among us and this brings me to morocco now where we can see some similar patterns over there and this is going to be my question to as adin. As the america has taken drastic measures in the past to contain the outbreak in a van it is signed it is researchers all are to shut down major cities recently because of a spike in infections what what is happening there. Why i think hashem the trend is the same in iraq or like other countries actually we have 2 phases the 1st one was actually with the lockdown that when its actually very weird actually we had the really very low number or full infection and we have several cases very low number of severe cases and the death rate was a few be very low and that sort of that i think the economy can social pressure get and they think maybe like the other countries the u. S. And hong kong we loosen up the deficit up a little bit and the whats happened people went out to work and have forgotten bob lots of gesture that were all really get to read and were very important to to to have and they think whats happened we have an increasing number of infected people and of course like other countries the western countries when you get the number an increasing number up for their infected people definitely you would get a some severe cases and the mortality rates will be increased thats whats happened and actually morrocco got to the point where we have a partial lockdown we have some cities we had to do with so i think we have to face is and we have at the same trend that we have seen in other countries we are seeing it in iraq lets get into the debate which is now dividing the medical community which basically is they said he says as are we into a 2nd wave or into a new on target territory marcus do you see this as an indication of that we are moving slowly to worse the much anticipated talked about 2nd wave. Im not sure the 2nd layer waiver just that we never completed the 1st wave of it i think whats important is were saying huge increases in cases you know the disease is not being very well controlled in many of the states in the United States and so thats where we are i mean i just i dont think we ever really manage the 1st way that we were and thats part of the reason why ive come back so strongly in these states but im not sure that it matters a great deal i mean the fact is where we are where we are and we need to start looking at ways that we can turn this back around to give up their control. Because when we talk about a 2nd wave of wave that would give you some indications about how to move forward and whether countries are well prepared to tackle the case and rescind the whole congo is a particular case no its been hit by the 3rd wave and some people blame the government for those decisions made in the past particular when it comes to the quality in exams and also the relaxed rules when it comes to social distancing and they say those were the main reasons why the country has been hit again and again i think that when we look at the mistake we made in hong kong there is another good example we can enter to move that is similar i think well have on a similar relatives more plays a. Different from america theres a large ways that it will keep moving around inside the country we are relative small places and actually if we cross the border while control of people getting in while we have good climb times was the years actually when the country actually at that the seas are clear up the normal infection we get regularly losing to the diesel issues or a devotee or Economic Activity inside that place and keep on the current time rosie years keep on the Border Control how one is doing and it will keep on doing it quite well however in hong kong our government just a maybe because of the political pressure or also an economic pressure they just tried to lose and appalled or too quick too easily and actually they ignored our exploded kenyan ignored our advice of cheap decorum time and asked people good at testing actually our its not. A move that you know a new wave of the seas actually the genetic make up our of our local citizen why would you. Net makeup is similar to those imported so this is no strong evidence so i think in a country like ours its such a small place if youre going to me on the phone at the scene in your country not knowing where its come in the case and you want to lose in a bit early so you must do it in you it in your country 1st but keep a look while the control surfaces i see your point as d. M. Countries with an advanced Health Care System would go for Contact Tracing and testing and with that capacity of they have managed to contain the crisis other countries like morocco opted for a different scenario which is the lock down now my question is when you see of this in your pattern and then your resurgence do you think that the lock down and the drastic measures can still be efficient in the near future. Well before that i came to what said marcus and i think its true because i think when we talk about the 2nd wave were making the historical reference to something thats happened the century ago we have you had the 2nd wave actually for the spanish flu and the spanish flu actually is true when it came back it has a really very hard and briana more than 50000000 people have died at that time so it was already. Referenced through discounting of 2nd wave but i think and i agree with that with marcus we are still in the 1st big wave that is here and what we are seeing and we never went back and completely in the western hemisphere i mean in the in europe and in morocco in enough account we never went back and down 2 completely really have 0 cases so meaning that we are still there dont really get the resurgence and we get this persistent surges of the virus and when you are opening up and it is no lockdown whats going to happen this kind of situation the number of them fact of people would increase so that something would be happening and i think when you bring it to the human level of human dimension it doesnt change much if you are in the 1st 2nd or 3rd wave if you are infected so that something just something gets to the sense of this historical kind of a reference to the 2nd wave and they carry with you i think for when you see countries like the u. S. With their mights actually and you see whats happened in new york i think its its amazing when you get more than 50000 i see you beds and state not able actually to confront the infection you think about countries like morocco and the african countries and i think that profit is 3 of them and the absence of any good treatment and the absence of the vaccine who i think is the not biblical up or should its still the best are going on. I think thats the main one that we have to insist on i think one of the things about this whole debate and now we get into semantics about whether this is a 2nd wave or 3rd wave whats next i think it just puts more emphasis on whether we are ready for what comes next and marcus now if you look at all the predictions that were made all the modeling in the past it was an indication it was a lesson for us that we have to learn by the day but now when you look at the pattern were talking about 3 different scenarios the 1st one it being it plateaus it comes down 2nd scenario is like it did in 1800 and thats where it turns out aggressive and thats where you have a huge number of mortality a 3rd scenario is basically what people are aiming for is a pattern that through laws in a controlled manner and if even if theres no vaccine in 2 or 3 or 45 years from now were still in the safe side are you tilting towards that 3rd scenario or do you think we have to brace for a nightmare scenario in the future or so. No i think the 3rd scenario that we often refer to that slow burn i dont know if its the best metaphor but you know the idea is that its no effect just as these its always there its going to ebb and flow but you start to put the mickey that mitigation interventions in place so that you cant control it and you can strengthen some of those things when you need to in certain areas hopefully you get to a place where youre only seeing the outbreaks in specific places which we refer to as hotspots its a little easier to go in there and check the infection down the problem is what you get clearing up cross whole communities and hes more challenging you know we really do try now to move away from some of the more aggressive biggish interventions like stay out more complete shutdowns because we have seen thats had a very difficult to act on the economy and we understand that people suffer when the economy goes down as well its not an either or kind of situation but the hope is we can get it this slow part where we can control it i mean opic us here in the United States would be that the infection rates get so high that overwhelms the Health Care System that would cause chaos that would totally undermined the Publics Trust we have to make sure that. I was seen as at the same sentiment that is sabella time to reinstill or some of the. Shutdown measures that will imposed in the past to be able to contain the outbreak. Yes in fact in hong kong we have even there india 1st or 2nd wave or even now the 3rd wave we have never really our city people still keeping going on but just at closing some routes are on or some stopping some Large Group Activities or the government members start the election now we dont really dont have that kind of. I think i am yes i think lockdown or large scale start of a diversity is very different will eventually like you get used to have very busy and. Maybe arm for some group of people or thermal that young and out look how maybe we can tolerate very low number of interaction on charlie on an hour but in order to keep the medical system not being collabs and keep running remote protagoras at risk while the elderly and so on are so many having the future on when these waves acquire down we soon at the ready as the moon must ensure there we must try our best to keep our elderly and at risk work so maybe we can resume some activities that may need of all those actively working class level dowdle your some cunt of a deal we must control it well as d. M. I think this this virus has exposed this growing rift between the medical community and the Political Community for politicians what if worst comes to worse was shut down but you know in a place like morocco the Informal Sector is the one which has been massively impacted by the covert 19 if you opt once again for shutdowns him is that millions of moroccos will have to suffer more do you think the country or the establishment is ready for such difficult decision in the near future. Why i think what you said national its a real description of whats happening in iraq and i think whats the the Decision Makers and takers are struggling with this decision actually you have in one part of the medical and the health the reasons and you have on the other side the source tional and the economy the pressure on the i think we need to have a balance between the 200 i think thats what were struggling with and they think really the solution will be something in between is just what everybodys doing we were trying to do it in morocco basically says trace and truck and every time we need to lock down a partial one we need to do it and i think that something will be happening in morocco and you already see it when you have any problem somewhere that we try actually to confine people and to to put them actually in all solution but i agree with you in countries like morocco i think when you have lots of informal kind of economy thats really beach struggle and i think the balance will be there to make and the decision to take the other thing that there is difference between hong kong and other Asian Countries its the cultural that you havent a practice that you have every day practices because you know in countries like iraq or you hire you contacted the mitigation is something that is not in our culture actually and that the mitigation mean people that we have gesture thats where the law not allow them to clean contact to be friendly kind of and i think this change of culture and practices is another or a struggle that we have to go through marcus this is not only shaping our lives they could shape our future it could shape democracy of the way we know it and understand it it could disrupt elections in the near future one of those cases is the United States of america and i think as this debate keeps moving on. Well what would be the next step forward i mean to try to see how we can move forward well i think we have a lot of the tools that we need to begin to get the an affectionate control i mean 1st long have to understand as we spoke about earlier its its not going to go away until theres a back sane or really effective treatment or and so significant amount of time goes by but its had it so in the interim we have to use the interventions that we have Wearing Masks and social distancing. Attack tracing isolation and then protecting people in particular high risk in congregate settings like Nursing Homes correctional facilities those that we can we can bring about this we talked about earlier we do those things and we can we can make it far a significant amount of time if we need to ok those things the hope is that we have a back in the that comes in will allow us to move more quickly to our bodies protect ok the other hope that we dont talk about as much is that there may be some more treatments become out so who are able to treat the backseat keep in mind its its only a small percent of people who become severely ill and so a treatment would really be able to help to deal with that particular situation which so troublesome and which is the cause of the want to own statistics that we of course as im left with only terminus i listen in less than a minute if you dont mind i guess the backdrop of the problem ocracy environment now in hong kong and the need for people to take to the streets to express their political views is in this widely seen as a major risk the could further increase the risk of infections in the future. Actually hong kong is a know very difficult situation and we are getting pressure or influence from 1st of all our prompt eventually or may need from the main and also the policy and so on. Yes and i think with the political instability one of the government who want to control everything will really want like to take the chance of the infection and the outbreak he tried to calm a limit out of lives and also the Political Rights but i think what we see action is the seize we can get rid of even at the bettin come out you will see that their production on distribution will not be stable and it will not be available for ever go on is what were all bully is time so we just need to find out what we can carry on every life we should stop so yes. You action ally we should carry on but should give it. We should try to stop some of it but most importantly we actually know the best way is very modest and he doesnt know how i see your point if you were to make a decision in iraq about how to tackle covert 1000 in the near future so what would be your top priority investing more in the medical sector or for the time being is a case in people on the need to respect social distancing and Wearing Masks all the time every day for as long as it takes until this virus. Disappear again which are of interest in and comparing to the us and hong kong we have very thankful we dont have their drama times and political problems because thats thats every day in 1000 but in our case actually i think in morocco we are going through a lot of changes that think its going to be a struggle the changes in the mentality of the practices in doing things but i think the right way to do is what were doing right now is actually to kids and people take unmask as a reading. The only solution that we have right now social decision is something very important actually 18 is very porton actually and the other think i thank you we have to think about it that is an emergence of a new elite that would be something very interesting to see if i were wrong thank you as a dean of brahimi i receive marcus pleasure thank you very much indeed for your contribution i appreciate your time and thank you for watching you can see the program again any time by what visiting our website or dot com for further discussion goes our Facebook Page thats facebook dot com forward slash a. J. Inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our hand there is a j inside story for me. And the whole team here by phone now. Diverse range of stories from across the globe from the perspective of our networks journalists on aljazeera. Hello again pete ill be here in doha your top stories from aljazeera people around the world are facing new coronavirus restrictions as the total cases age towards 18000000. 00 hong kong believes is now dealing with a 3rd wave and Health Workers from Mainland China have been sent in to help. The number of deaths in latin america has now doubled in just over one month to more than 200000 mexicos government began lifting restrictions in may to restart the economy but many expect lockdowns to return manuel republic reports. New cases of corona virus
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