Transcripts For ALJAZ The Bottom Line 20240711

3 days to lay down arms. Now Ethiopian Federal government side has since said that thousands of to gray and fighters that surrendered. Theyd moved to some of the move to the far region, which is to the east of to great to great leadership in recent days, had refused to. Its also not clear exactly how close the federal forces are to the city. They said that they surrounded it. They were 50 kilometers away. Other reports said that there was fighting about 70 kilometers to the northwest on wednesday. Others saying that its much closer. A Turkish Court has handed down hundreds of life sentences for those accused of plotting to overthrow president 14 years ago. Its one of the biggest cases related to the failed coup with 475 suspects. Argentina has begun 3 days of National Mourning for one of its greatest have a Football Player to get married on his body is lying in states looking at some of the at least 1000000 people are expected to pay respects germany is imposing Strict Lockdown measures as it struggles to suppress a 2nd wave of corona virus infections from december private gatherings will be restricted to 5 people, but increasing to 10 over christmas. But chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that white images are likely to continue into january became president is one reelection according to preliminary results. The Electoral Commission says iraq border has secured more than 3 times as many votes as his nearest rival. The former finance minister is different. The opposition has claimed a massive fraud in sundays poll, but this has been dismissed by the Electoral Commission. Here as they were headlines got more news here, announcer right after the bottom line. I think hi, im Steve Clemons and i have a question. Is the United States in a better place or worse on the global stage than it was 4 years ago . And what should joe biden consider if he takes us Foreign Policy in a different direction . Lets get to the bottom line. Outgoing president. Donald trump love to be the anti diplomat insulting countries and their leaders, and even his own ambassadors and bureaucrats. And just making sure everyone felt on the edge all the time. He was a transactional us wanting to do deals, but often it was very hard to see if those deals made sense to me and for the country. What are the consequences been for the United States under a president who prefer dramatic decisions and one off deals to long term alliances . What parts of trumps Foreign Policy should be thrown out and what parts will a joe biden presidency . Probably keep . Today were going to talk with one of americas most experienced diplomats and trade negotiators and chroniclers of u. S. Foreign policy. Robert zoellick has had by 6 u. S. President s was deputy secretary of state for president bush and is a former president of the world bank. He just published america in the world, a history of u. S. , diplomacy, and Foreign Policy. A very deep dive into the people in factors that shaped americas Foreign Policy. Since the founding of the country, ambassadors alex, thank you so much for joining us today. As i read your book, its a fascinating collection of consequential personalities in u. S. Foreign policy and inflection points. Whether it was bad of our bush and looking at a moment on how technology needed to be woven into a National Security or kordell whole taking and expanding your policy to look about americas trade position in the world. And im interested in what your insights are on people and moments that matter, and whether were at one of those inflection points today as we move from trump to biden. Its been a momentous, 4 years, trying to fix breaking things. It was delighted to disrupt the International System that the u. S. It helped create 70 years ago and, and apted. So its natural that around the world wonders kind of whats coming next. But i also think there theres 3 bigger challenges. Steve. One is that youre seeing the importance of what ill call the new security issues. These are especially by european and climate along with the traditional ones. Then youve also got on the economic side that the phenomenon of globalization continues. But youre seeing fragmentation in the International System. And then the 3rd one is a lot of discussion about great pro or rivalry at the same time that you have to figure out how we deal with these transnational issues in a multilateral crumpet of fashion. So i think one of the challenges for the bite of ministration will be you know, how will it, how will that sort of balance these interbreed and particularly work at home and with allies. And i think, you know, go ahead. I know, im guessing, can you walk through these different terrains that joe biden is going to have to consider . That would be traditional for any president coming in to us Foreign Policy. Were beginning to get into them, but im wondering if you could kind of give us a structured survey of the territory that the president s going to have to consider. Well, you know, in some way, i think the starters goes back to some advice. My former boss james baker, gave to president Ronald Reagan in 1901, which he said, mr. President , youve got 3 priorities, economic recovery, economic recovery and economic recovery. Well, in this case, the focus is on pandemic and economic recovery. Very. So thats got to be the priority issue for a new administration. But then the question is, you know, whether the biden, people can connect some of their domestic agenda internationally. So for example, with the vaccines and the medical treatments we expect next year, not just rejoin the w. H. O. , but could they come up with an Initiative Like president bush 43 did with hiv aids and most tuberculosis to help the developing world. So you kind of expand on the, w. H. O. Those are all my old institution, the world bank is going to be critical in extending the w. H. O. , which really doesnt have the capacity internationally to try to help the developing world. Similarly, if you do something on immigration with dreamers, you know, by not connected to a north american policy with mexico. And by the way, its going to be connected to an area that by had worked on in the past, which is central america. And its such a development in that security in climate you dont just rejoin the paris accord, but you probably have to focus on the 10 biggest economies in emitters which are about 80 to 90 percent of the problem. But you can also bring in the developing world with initiatives like so carbon which could absorb a lot of carbon, but help African Agriculture for station or avoided the for station or adaptation. So the challenge is, can they connect the dots across these topics of some of the new issues . While they also have to watch the traditional, whats like Nuclear Proliferation and sort of regional dangers. So what youre basically saying, and i want to underscore this point is given the domestic agenda, which is going to be huge. Enormously time consuming is youre suggesting that he connect those, whether its on the pandemic or Economic Growth to something, bridging it internationally that that would be a way to get it, you know, essentially to scale global opportunities, but link them to a very active domestic agenda. Well, think e. S. P. Even and think of the benefits. So for Many Americans and people all around the world, issues of bendemeer climate are local in effect. But in a sense, youre partly trying to explain to the public who has to support your policies, how these are connected with the global context. Secondly, if you think about the agenda that is talked about, thats a reasonable set of topics to start to rebuild ties with europeans and your partners in the asia pacific. And then based on that cooperation, which is obviously trade center create a lot over the past 4 years, you can build where you have to be the 2 most important issues for the future, which are the future of free societies and how you deal with china. So its a, its a multilateral strategy, as well as a domestic strategy and it focuses on whats on peoples minds. And bob, you were one of the people who really laid out during the last bush administration. What our contours with china need to be. In fact, you gave a very so important speech saying that china needed to aspire to more and needed to become a responsible global stakeholder. I remember speaking to you at that time, and it was almost as if you were the only one in that administration focused on china. And id love to hear where you think we go. Do you think the biden team will, will take your heat and pay more attention to this country, both negatives and potential opportunities . How is that going to be shaped, and are they going to go back to your words . Skipping over donald trump and say that ought to be our goal. Well, remember the context and that was a speech i gave in 2005. And what i was trying to point out, who is that for 20 years administrations of both parties have been seeking to integrate china into the International System. World trade organization, world bank i. M. F. Treaties, dealing with whoever a sure Ozone Development and my point 2005 ways that you dont ration was well along its way. The question was whether china could step up to the responsibilities of the International System. And to be frank with you, steve, over the past 4 years, i dont think either china nor the United States is hacked. It is a responsible stakeholder. So i think right now their relationship is, is quite dangerous. I think its been in freefall. I think the media challenges, frankly, to get some, some off ramps, you know, theres a, across the political spectrum, theres a lot of frustration in concern about china. So its not going to go back to the way that it was in the past. But i think the natural process, this is 1st, you have to focus on whats at home. And thats part of the science and technology and education and kind of democratic agenda. Then you work with your allies and partners in both east asia and i think europe will be important in this. And then then you frankly are going to have to have a sort of multidimensional strategy with china on issues such as naval maritime security. Youre going to probably need to sort of adapt some of your capacities. They have a, what strategists call and the access area, denial and network wires retooling some of our capabilities in the trade area. Can you chip push china on the intellectual property where . Well, its interesting theyve, theyve expanded intellectual proper, its courts and foreigners when about 85 to 90 percent of the time. But the penalties are high enough. So you want to push to raise the penalty. Its similarly enforced Technology Transfer thats created by that. Chinas expression of the dio, but my guess is you need to get rid of a lot of the joint venture requirements. Now my point on this is that trumper approach over the past 4 years was the focus on the by a trade deficit with china. They didnt change in one iota, they raise the bunch of tariffs, and frankly, the deal that they cut for purchases has only been about kind of half way in terms of its set of targets. And so it hasnt worked. And so, challenge for the United States is a, they both do things at home, work with partners, press china on some of these issues. And then ultimately, i also believe we need to stand for American Values as it is a good example. In the case of hong kong, rather than saying see leaders, i would open the doors for some people to hong kong to come to the u. S. Just as britain has done that, that would show the difference between the 2 societies. So china, it will be that big challenge for the United States over the coming decades. But my recommendation is he dont just approach it one. I dont want you got to do it with other perks. Thank you for that. Let me, let me ask you, you know, as you wrote your book, which, which i have found so instructive, you talk about the 5 traditions for american Foreign Policy and focusing on north america. Looking at alliances, transnational technology and trade arrangements, routing Foreign Policy into where voters are into politics and this notion of america as the unique place in the world, the unique and different spot that can make a very good thing. Id love at this moment when i think about those, and you talk about china and the United States being in freefall, a lot of the world looks at the United States as being in freefall. So as you look at those traditions, id love to get your know, you know, tell your, tell your view forward and talk to us a little bit about those 5 traditions, but how theyre relevant today. Ok, well lets start with north america. So obviously was pretty important for the United States history of the 19th century. You know, id argue in the 20th century, it was always a cornerstone as well. I mean, we almost went to war with the cuban missile crisis. And in a nuclear disaster, you had nafta, which is trying to reorient her to change the mexico. Well, as went to war again with mexico earlier in the century. But actually, i think the most telling guidance comes from Ronald Reagans speech in 1989 launching his campaign. And so almost unbelievable today, a candidate would say this, he said, you know, its time that we start to recognize, weve been better off if mexico and canada were stronger. And then its time that we stop seeing our nearest neighbors as foreigners, which is pretty different from what youre from the drop administration, with their focus on the wall. Now what this comes down to, again, for Many Americans, theyre interested in issues like immigration, narcotics, and organized crime, set of economic prospects, environmental issues, thats a natural north american agenda. But equally important, the stronger we have of north america, 500000000 people, 3 democracies energy, selfsufficiency, better demographics than the rest of the world. That will make us more powerful in dealing with china and other parties. So thats step one. The 2nd one was trade trans nationalism in technology. And here when i was trying to focus on it was from the very founding of the United States in 776, you can see that the Founding Fathers were looking on trade as more than a matter of economic efficiency. It was a question of partnerships with the rest of the world. And remember, they were trying to break free from a world of mercantile ism and period colonial systems. So they wanted room for private actors, the whole role of transnational actors. And obviously technology has been very important in americas success as a growing economy and then in, in the cold war. So that fits right nicely with the agenda that i talked about with some of the scientific and biological issues began our open economic strength. The 3rd is alliances, which is, you know, steve, you know, after washington and jeffersons warnings, United States stayed away from alliances for about 150 years. Then from 1947 in 1989, we created in some ways by accident, a new type of Alliance System that was based on politics and diplomacy and economics. As much as it was pure military power that proved very successful during the cold war. It was adapted after the cold war. And then for the past as for years, who as you said is transactional, really hasnt cared about, might denigrate alliances. So the question is, how do you change alliances for the new types of agenda that we just thought about before and who is that need to get congressional and public support in here, you know, a lot of traditional Foreign Policy specialist kind of ignore working with congress in my book, i talk about the role that senator vandenberg played with truman in 4749. But if you think in more modern times, you have people like john mccain or Richard Lugar or sam done. These are important. Ringback figures in terms of trying to help executive branches with Foreign Policy. So the question will be, who if anyone steps up to that today frankly, i think there are some possibilities which i have talking to written about in various pieces. But well have to see. And then the last point is americas purpose. And this is one of my favorite ones. I dont mean to suggest the notion of the United States exceptionalism because a lot of countries think theyre exceptional. But if you go back to the founding of, the u. S. They come and see of the United States, which in case you forgot what it looks like, its on the back of your dollar bill. And its that unfinished pyramid with the eye of providence above it. And the phrase below and over sort of circle or new order of the majors. So they were thinking in big terms. Now its my proposition that the purpose of the United States years 1st, it was simply to, is to keep a republican alive in a world of empires that it was fighting for the union, it to keep the link. Its as best hope of mankind by the time woodrow wilson. Its made the world safe for democracy, not necessarily make it a democracy. For roosevelt, its the 4 freedoms and the cold war. Its the other for bill clinton, it was the enlargement idea. So the question is, what role over the United States have today other than just being a powerful country . Trump obviously didnt feel that sort of a larger role in the United States. And im not saying we have to be missionaries around the world, but we do have to have some sense about the world that we would like to see and what we can do to advance it. So let me just ask, push you a little bit further on that. Those 5 traditions require in a way, an orientation even north america, which i, you know, that i am a big proponent of. Youre a big supporter of north a moment. Exactly, but they require an orientation where, where citizens look at being engaged in the world is a net positive. And i have to be honest, i am related to a lot of military families from the midwest. Not highly educated over generations, but they fought for the country and they felt like they fought for the country. And they fought the cold war, but china won. They feel sort of left behind abandon, and they feel like that, you know, the net plus the net positive they get from global engagement. Are what they used to be. I wont call it isolationism, but i will call it ambivalence. And so when you look at that, and you look at that International Range asian that is fed a lot of Donald Trumps popularity. Does that give you some pause that america maybe shifting back towards a more isolation, i wont call fully isolationist, but you know, strategic contraction if you will, from a lot of these, from a lot of these challenges in the world for sure. After, after decades of long wars, the Global Financial crisis, not the pandemic setback, its natural that people focus 1st at all. But let me give you a little historical sort of analogy here, steve, in october of 1000. So that was the month after japan surrendered, gallup did a poll or, and asked the American People in our International Relations by adults or interest. And the number that said, yes, it was. 7 percent hit him 1946 the next year as the devastation of your became more clearly known as the soviet unions on the rise. The number jumped o. E. Up to 14 percent. Then my point by this is that its always been a challenge for american president s to sort of explain the linkage. But here, you know, and you know, i know its popular among some of the Union Leaders to talk up, but american isolationism, the Chicago Council on Global Affairs does that in u. S. And the results are pretty striking. A bipartisan 68 percent of americans favor an active role in the world. Thats a little higher. It was in the cold war. 68 percent again by a person like the idea of a shared leadership role for only 24 percent. So let us dominance. 2 thirds of americans think globalization benefits the United States. Nearly 3 quarters, think trade is good for the economy. Even 59 percent jobs support for nato. Is it 73 percent . Now, as you know, because you know, the polls. These are in polling numbers. Strain is, you know, will a president be able to kind of organize them just as is as truman did. My own view is that, and this is what i think that the history shows. President s do this most effectively, both by explaining things and taking actions. So some of the ones that we talk about it to biological security and claim it as well as some of the traditional Nuclear Security items. And i hope the new administration will do this. Bob, a funny thing about your bio, which i really enjoyed because im, you know, in a twitter maniac myself, is that youre on the board of directors and twitter. I have no idea, but i dont, i cant, i dont know if youre lurking on twitter somewhere without me knowing, but i cant. Are you a practitioner of twitter, or are you just someone on board to kind of make sure that you know twitter behaves itself and what do you think about twitter and social media in this age of politics . Youve seen a lot how. How is twitter either helping or hurting our political scene . Well, steve, i couldnt, can reach your level of sort of, sort of appealing to a larger audience. And, and look, the reason i joined the board was because i wanted to learn more about it on the technology i might be, but also help on the International Side a little bit on some of the governance issues and, and also obviously have some familiarity with the financial and economic sector, but i think what youre seeing for all the companies in the social media space is, you know, theyre trying to adapt that and frankly, jack, because it is public testimony made this point is they started out with actually kind of what ill call them up, so they treat me any sort of participation. Thats the values of the silicon valley. Then they had the problems with the 2016 election. So theyve experimented with labels and different prohibition and different set of categories. And i think thats an ongoing sort of any exercise. I know that the senior team from dorsey and down takes account very much of what they consider to be the health of the conversation im. Im pleased that at least from what weve learned so far that their work and the work. d of facebook and others have seemed to limit the ability for intrusion sort of in the election process. But i think this will be a topic of ongoing debate. And you could see people taking a different direction. So some people say they allow, we dont want the platforms to interfere with any speaker, but on the other. And others will say, well, you know, there can be sort of information there that is provocative or leads to violence or conflict. So that if people want to go back to sort of the traditional controls on or sort of limits your responsibilities for via, with this socalled section 230 in frankly, youd open up to a series of legal actions. And so you might actually be to be more restrictive. So my own sense is that, that tech elegy companies are now fully aware of this. They want to engage the public in the dialogue. And yet its going to be part of our society and its a certain irony drawn, criticizes these, these sort of networks when he obviously heard how to use them quite effectively. Well, i had dinner with jack dorsey, the c. E. O. Of twitter, a very small dinner. And we discussed it, and while that discussion was off the record, what i can say is that i was impressed with how concerned he was about censoring anyone. That the decisions he thought had to be careful not to go down a slippery slope that there were certain principles, but you know, to see the anguish and the way his mind was turning was very important. Last question, ambassador Robert Zoellick, deputy secretary, if joe biden were to call you up and said, hey, we could use your services, would you join . You were a prominent sort of john hancock of the never trump crowd. So im just wondering if you would accept the biden role. Well, i know a lot of the biden team and informally, im sure i try to help them. Theyve got a lot of quality players, a lot of slots to fill with their, their own people. So this kind of leave it at that, and im looking forward to the new team. I think that challenges they face as weve discussed, you know, are very important for the United States getting back on track. And its, its a different world context. And, you know, i, i have some experience in some of the International Institutions beyond the traditional security space. I think those are going to be increasingly important. So wherever i can help them, or frankly, republicans and democrats in the congress. Well, ambassador Robert Zoellick statesman, diplomat trade negotiator and now chronicler of the history of u. S. Foreign policy in america in the world. Thank you so much. I really enjoyed it and look forward to seeing how this all plays out. Thanks for joining us today. So whats the bottom line, say, what you will about the presidency of donald trump. He has forced real changes in the terms of american engagement in the world. America, even under a joe biden presidency, is going to be more selfish than in the past, less willing to provide security, or do trade deals or share Technological Progress without clear returns for the country and its citizens. America is going to get back into global deals and institutions like the Paris Climate Accord or the World Health Organization and the deputy oh, but those are low hanging fruit. As my guest, Robert Dallek says, america is going to be deeply distracted at home by tensions over the pandemic over race over economic inequality. And the fact that the countries that bided nearly down the middle on trump ism, americas diplomacy is going to be a lot more humble, going forward. Not as a gesture of humility, but rather because its not going to get away with arrogance in these times. And thats the bottom line when the music breaks apart from america, when people need to be heard and the story needs to be told, thats why you have increased testing in areas with a high infection rate with exclusive interviews and indepth reports, see people here tell us they are desperate. Theyre hungry and call out his iraq has teams on the ground kind of loves to impact the 2nd lot with to bring new movie old wing documentaries and life news demain, the intersection of reality and comedy and post revolution to newseum. A mission to entertain, educate and provoke debate through satire, how weapon of choice and intimate look at what inspires one of tunas years most popular comedians to make people laugh. Miten asea hack on aljazeera. A key figure of the early 20th century arab literary scene. And a feminist writer had ever had time. So why did her story and in such tragedy, which is their world expose their life and why maisie arda on aljazeera. The ethiopian Prime Minister orders a final offensive on tikrit and announces a humanitarian corridor to help those fleeing the fighting. But macleod, that is out there and live from doha. Also coming up a Turkish Court, hands down hundreds of life sentences linked to the 2016 failed coup, accusing some of trying to kill president. What a country in mourning fountains in argentina bid farewell to a football legend. Diego maradona his body is now lying in state