Hello and welcome to the program. Im toma craig of the months of political holes trading and bring some and ship the us house of representatives finally reached an agreement on a 61000000000. 00 a package for you crime. A key for the rooms. The faith loomed of us politicians filed to agree on more money or under attack from the lodge. A better equipped Russian Forces. Ukrainian troops are entirely reliance on foreign assistance at the spot receiving major aid and military packages to died. Some believe the boy is that a style mice supposes of the assistance is that will bring you crying closer to victory. The kremlin, along with some of the independent observers, says it will simply prolong the will, meaning more people will dive. How will be assessing without pen look, guess what this package might mean for you kind of russian and what a long google could mean for both countries along with europe and the United States and our path to pace might be found. This is this report from imaging camp another 61000000000. 00, the crane, and its war against russia. The latest us a package is pushed by the republican high speaker with logic, democratic support. Its a, its a dangerous time of the 3 of our primary adversaries. Russia and iran in china are working together and theyre being aggressors around the globe and their global threat to our prosperity and our security. Their advance threatens their free world and it demands american leadership. We turn our backs right now, the consequences to be devastating. The legislation still needs approval from the senate, which is expected to get before being signed off by president j. Pardon . President wrote him, is it lensky . Its been cooling for more aid for months, saying its critical for ukraine survival. Definitely. I think everyone whos supported a package, this is a live saving decision. We will certainly use american support to strengthen both all nations and bring a just into this will close a goal thats colton must lose the tied to military and civilian death toll since russias invasion in february 2022 is on 9. On the 2nd, none of us you have to hold. The Un Human Rights Monitoring Mission estimated more than 10 size and ukrainian civilians have been killed and always 20000 injured. While the Ministry Said 31 size and personnel had been killed on investigation by the bbc and jose estimates 50000 Russian Troops have been killed. The kremlin says only the Defense Ministry can provide such statistics and hasnt done so due to official secrets tools. Ukraine has made little progress, breaking through bushes frontline or its grip on parts of eastern and southern ukraine. Well, Russian Forces continue to carry out attacks across the country. Ukraine has also been launching drones interruption. Territory of the kremlin says the approval of security aid to ukraine would lead to more damage and death in the conflict. It accuses the us fighting a proxy war against russia, through its ministry, support with ukraine supplying demand power the us and they to say there are no plans to send troops to increase. The russia says, British Military personnel already the with no, i just saw a bucking dying or gaining significant grand and no negotiations on the table. The will seem set to drag on image and can the outer 0, the inside story where ukraine has become the biggest recipient of us for an age. The 1st time for you are p and country. Since the 2nd world war, according to the council of foreign relations, even before subsidized by the us, had approve more than 74000000000. 00 and assistance. You try and during the war that includes humanitarian, financial and military support of you has provided more than 106000000000. 00 and financial military humanitarian and refugee assistance since the war began. The cadets bring in now panel now in new york, chris, which is a full, the middle east bureau chief of the new times independents a prize winning journalist in washington dc. And the total leaving is the director of the razor program at the Quincy Institute for responsible state cross us think tank and then boss in the you kind of petrik barry is a defense and security analyst as well as a former british officer whos also with a long side. Nice. So thank you very much for being with us here on inside story. Patrick, if i can begin with you, and before we get to the long attend implications of this a package, you kind is wasted months and months for this to be signed off. How desperately needed, is it and what impact is it actually going to have on the war . A tom is critical. I think the, the new music in the face reflect a doctor. This bill is going to get through because of the nature of the, the threat that you brian is facing. Essentially its quite a defensive, but the way it looks is going to be quite a defensive package. And the number one priority at the moment is air defense. A new brain has obviously had some patriot and ask for assistance from the u. S. And you are, but it needs more uh, it has somewhere in the region of 3 to 5. And as ask for another 7 more, the good news is you can get that quite quickly. Um, id say most of the nations that can provide the systems can news and fairly quickly, the rest of all have stopped piles of certain cases in europe already. And id say not as the number one priority, the 2nd thing that is large kind of artillery shows, i need them quickly to might take a little bit longer. And theres numerous different efforts going in europe. Items obviously to us to get those to them. I dont think at the moment that will be quite enough, and at least it gets the ball rolling. Chris, a lot of the landscape has a sit in response to this that ukraine will now have a chance to victory a 61000000000. 00 enough die for you, cried to actually finish this war, or is it simply going to per long this current style might that weve seen of, of recent months, you know, it will prolong it. I think since ukraines failed counter offensive in 2023 day by their own admission where they call it active defense. The russians have made territorial games, but there was always an understanding from the inception of this war that ukraine could not win a war of attrition. And its now i think the average age of its troops is Something Like 43. I had 7 parents spring difficulties recruiting. I think the fear and the reason that this was pushed through is the possibility of ukrainian collapse. But the intent of washington was never to essentially allow the premium forces to defeat the russians. But it was to create a proxy war whereby the Russian Military would be degraded. Vladimir putin would be isolated. Uh and then the 3rd aspect of that was to degrade and triple the russian economy that did not happen apparently, but, but thats what proxy wars are about. I covered the pros in northern arac cuz they never wanted to us number one or the current state. They just wanted to harass iraqi regime and so they are prolonging the proxy war that will end in negotiations. Oh, sadly, negotiations that have been done before this war began. You will get on to the negotiations and when they may begin and how they would play out in just a moment. But the anatole, we also heard from a zalinski saying that this us, i package seems a strong signal that you kind will not be a secondary dentist on. The United States will stay with you crying. And then it also sends a powerful message to person in the kremlin. Do you agree with those statements . And do you agree with chris as well that this package is just going to prolong this proxy . Will that the us is filing with russia . I suppose this package will help ukraine to stand on the defensive. Theres no question of that. Im just missed a very upset. This is basically a defensive package of box. It will not help to crate and it will help. But when insured is that ukraine can break through the russian lines and when its time, which of course, it failed completely to do last 2. And those lines are being strengthened all the time. Now, is, the lensky has continues to define peaks in terms of total. You crime in victory, the ukraine in each package says the russian must withdrawal from the entire tree. Its occupied, including crimea and bull trends, trials and reparations. That requires complete ukrainian victory, which were not going to get. Im the 2nd layer of goals of us support for ukraine is not insured by this package for this year. But we have elections in in november. Im just goes um its trump is elected. What happens next year is completely, im sure. So in the longer term, given the huge in balance of population and resources between russia and ukraine. Um yes, i mean in, in the it will be a war of attrition in the old system on russia side. Patrick, just picking up from that point and, and what you said earlier about this being a defensive package, i mean button has more numerous times that without mess of us military, i even support the Ukrainian Resistance would pretty much completely collapse. What happens if the money doesnt keep flowing, especially after the election, the us election at the end of this year . Well essentially tom, uh, the, the, when the new grand sales would slowly die. Um then uh it would eventually be come under such a pressure from the russians. The stay would have to start conceding territory and then it would be down to the manner of which task and how much the russians talk. And also whether the finance have to switch to some sort of insurgency, to go back to charles point, you know, what, i dont think the west actually had a problem for this being a proxy war. I think if you look at the nature of the way that the ukrainians defended at the start of the war, they exceeded expectations much higher than most people. So within the region, the old them, the weapon systems that went in suggested they were going to be the west. Were going to be funding an insurgency, especially in the west of the country, rather than a full this to get scale to go to tote conventional flight, which it turns into. So you brain exceeded expectations and the policy decisions have to evolve with that. We are aware we are and i dont think the writings would have also accepted in the end and it goes a to settlement before the affordable or the some obviously major differences are by whether internally, whether they want to accept anything that is. So, um, but we are where we are. I think the point is, uh, you know, even just the defense or former or persian the ascendancy. Its even hard for the russians, even though theyre getting into a groove and making some advances. Its harder for them to mouse in secret and then break through like weve seen any in in previous flores because of the advantages with ukraine, generally, as long as i can keep the sensors, unintelligence picture going them. Their big question is, do we take a year and go on the defensive and then with something a massive amounts of us and western support train. You know, if i do a big or offensive in 2024, i actually think thats probably becoming the less likely that as time passes in result and one in part as a result of this delay to the package. If it had to come back in october, when it was needed, then you would have been into a phase and in spring of planning and prepping for the holding off the russians for a year and going again for an operational big sheets, deposits easy, give another try another operational victory next summer. I dont, i think weve lost so much time now. Im not sure thats going to happen. Chris, it seems like were already talking about nick some a little on in the one in the coming months. What do you make of, of with this is, is going to go, do you think is, is just going to continue, i guess, rolling along, month after month with very little movements in terms of territory gains or losses on either side as well. I just wanna address the issue of momentum because that is true, that the inception of the conflict and this was a lot of this was due to failure within the Russian Military, on their intelligence, their tactics. They didnt have the logistics, they didnt have the trip numbers. Uh and the trainings, especially in that initial rush driven susie as im and the flight of western weapons, were able to make military gains. But all of that has been neutralized the tactics, especially the strong defensive tactics have changed the Russian Forces of more than double in size. Uh and then of course the ukrainians. Uh, as i mentioned before, are having great difficulty mobilizing uh the in and increasingly older troops that are not particularly well trained or motivated. The russians have got more effective tactics in terms of defending attacks. Uh and uh, and theyve increased their capacity to jam the electronic systems, which these natal weapons use. So the war is changed dramatically from that initial inception. Id sure i would use the word stalemate because it is a war of attrition. Stalemate is essentially something that doesnt change a war of attrition on the ground. It may not change in terms of the actual territorial occupation, but that steady attrition on the ukraine just cant afford it. And at that point, at a certain point, as you know, you go back to world war one or something. You see those forces that are being shipped away, essentially collapse. And i think thats a real possibility and ukraine eventually. And its all, i can see you, nothing along there. What do you make of that . I guess thats how you see it to yes, i think chris is exactly right. And it goes absolutely critical here is, is the issue. Ready of troops of numbers of troops, because even if we go on giving you kind, massive amounts of weapons, we kind of generate the troops to use those weapons. And ukraine is more and more numbers and its troops on the ground are exhausted. So yes, i mean, the longer the will goes off, the greater the risk that, as chris said, as in, in the 1st will, you have a war of attrition but which eventually does end with the collapse of, of one side. And that side, i think we must assume would be ukraine, not fresh. I believe it to roughly 50000 ukranian soldiers had been killed. So fire and 2 years of war. And its all i know that you have been to your crime since the will began. Can you just give us a little bit of a view of what the people of the, the population make if this more of attrition is were calling it here today. I mean, we often hear from the governments point of view, obviously, but we really, very, really here from the people inside you cried as i, at a turning point a with i want to see eddings to the war at this point. Well, i mean, as one would expect, saving the great divisions of opinion on to the surface in, in the ukrainian population. A, by the way, mean the estimates of the, the statement by the lensky of study one sizes and you pregnant, that is taken by nice military experts to be a huge. Im just a, probably the 50000, bbc think its russian. That is also a great time to on the statement. But one of the scene of the already when i was there last year, i everybody, everybody i talked to one to the pregnant defensive to succeed, bought a large minority said. But if it didnt, then rather than even a fighting on and on and losing more and more dead with no realistic hope. The victory that you train would have to negotiate and concede from at least a considerable amount of the tire trade, which it has already lost now, majorities and said, no, you pain must, must Never Surrender territory. But it was also striking. Ready the people who said that in the end we will have to compromise. That was the last minority as i say, but not one of them is willing to say on the record of it. This one has to be wary of including, of opinion pose, which say that you know, youd be brand new people are united in opposing, any kind of compromise piece. And a bit more recent opinion, polls have suggested that that has been a strong shift towards belief that that that must be a compromise piece. Not yes, the majority, but even larger minority. Now, of course, one must say that that does not mean that these people support ukraine, simply so rendering to russia and ukraine becoming, you know, of course, session clients state was overwhelming opposition to that. The question is basically whether you negotiate a piece which involves Russia Holding voltage, it now has and which also of course, involves ukrainian treaty of neutrality was also being that it just goes by many ukrainians is the fact that while the west has given massive aid to ukraine, of course, the west has not gone to war, to defend ukraine, which, as the lensky himself said, in the 1st month, does raise the question of what nature membership, what is for whether the inside nature ukraine will be a member of nature. And thats why, in fact, ukraine should not sign a treaty of neutrality if accompanied by you some forms of guarantee for its future security. But before we move on to potential negotiations and all of this picture, when it comes to you just in regards to the ukranian soldiers, obviously as we had a minimum, the city thousands of have died already up to potentially 50000. The longer this goes on, is this the greatest risk to you, cried the, the, the, the lack of troops that they have coming in behind those on the front line that continue to be killed. It depends, doesnt that, you know, depends on the rate of loss relative to the russians and their ability to refresh it. But look, its not like youre talking long term in the way the germany was eventually strong goals in, in the 1st for a walrus christmas. All kind of a, there is on some choosing that analogy a smaller nation with a smaller population and economy can go against, you know, a former global superpower with, you know, 200000000 people. And it just doesnt happen. A lot of people have left you brain to, so thats a longer term picture and i agree, but, but you know, and theres worrying indicators, you know, rushes out in your bait or release, replacing out of goods forces. 30000 people amongst ukraine installed over there, mobilization um, over the winter basically, you know, and hes just getting ran through and thought should have happened much faster. You know, a porch. I do think that the, you know, were gonna talk about negotiations. Thats ultimately i think its all the software that has been to the branding is to decide when enough is enough is enough, is enough enough for them to the side. And all weve done really is giving them the stuff. And some of its too late to, to, to keep fighting. So, i mean, weve also gone out and see and its all you know, statements that weve gone over and told them to keep fighting a time to give them support and which stand by stand by them. And i suppose the, some of the ukrainians are coming out and theyre saying, well, we thought there be more, but on the nato point, you know, you probably didnt, to nato, it wasnt a