April 2021 CFNAI Super Index Moving Average Index Declined The economy's rate of growth slowed based on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3 month moving (3MA) average - but the economy is slightly above the historical trend rate of growth. Analyst Opinion of the CFNAI This Month This index is likely the best coincident indicator of the U.S. economy. A coincident indicator shows the current state of the economy. This month, three of the four broad categories worsened The economy has slowed from its rate of growth in 2018 but now has moved above territory associated with recessions [a level below -0.7 indicates a recession is likely underway].