Good morning. Welcome to dateline. Let the people decide. In kurdistan they have, and this weekend catalans wanted to do the same, by holding a referendum on independence in the uk, a referendum of course in the uk gave us brexit. Jeremy corbyn, leader of the opposition labour party, has announced he would give similar, decisive votes to people he says politicians ignore. In germany, the voters rewarded Angela Merkel with a term as chancellor last weekend but also gave the far right their first seat in the bundestag in more than 50 years, though the taboo against Holding Referendum in germany remains as strong as ever. To discuss all that im joined by henry chu, International Editor of variety, Polly Toynbee from the guardian, maria margaronis, who writes for the nation, and stephanie bozon from germanys der welt. Welcome to all of you, good to have you with us again. Lets talk first of all about this question of referendums. What do you make of the way that the government in iraq and spain have responded to the referendums proposed and held . Well, it makes you actually be more in favour of referendums then i would be normally inclined to be because i tend to think referendums put very complex questions in very simple terms which is something we saw with the brexit referendum, very vividly, where everybody was actually voting on a different topic and for Different Reasons on a very apparently very simple question but when you see the spanish government, resorting to the most repressive tactics, to prevent the catalan referendum happening, you think well there is a reason to do this after all and if i was a catalan and i were inclined to vote no i might be beginning to think about voting yes because of it. Germany has of course a very different view to referendums. Does that let the people decide question never resonated 7 no, of course it does but it does more on a local and regional level so because it is a federal system you do have something slightly different, like a referendum but more a popular vote on things like opening or closing down a station or. There have been quite vivid referendums, peoples votes in the past, in stuttgart there was a big political thing about a new station being built or not, but in general there is a trust in the parliament which is out of german history,. Because hitler used to hhold referendums or plebiscites, perceived as a way of kind of stirring up masses and then exploiting the politics. So the trust is actually there that this is a functioning democratic system that actually be parliament is in charge of, taking very compact decision and as we have seen with brexit for example, such a complex historic question, going down to 50 50 to a nation, it is anecdotal but if it is true that the day after the referendum the most googled word was european union, it makes you doubt whether its good to do referendums. Polly, in britain of course we have had lots of other referendums. This idea of Parliament Saying actually some decisions are just so fundamental that they had to be left to people to make them because otherwise we cant be sure that they will have the authority and the trust in the politicians making the decisions for them, and that tension between representative of democracy and that kind of democracy of the people is a difficult one to resolve. Traditionally we have always thought of referendums as being instruments of demagogues, and they have turned out to be. The brexit referendum is the best example you could have of why referendums are monstrous. I think a referendum. Thats only because you lost no, i dont think so, because people might have changed their mind the next day anyway. It comes like a guillotine, something that happens at one time that nobody can rescind, there is nothing to be done about it. In representative democracy, you choose the people who are going to do the best they can within a certain ambit of political ideology, and there is flexibility and you can vote them out again. Time will come round if they get it wrong you can get rid of them. But i do think though that a referendum for Self Determination is a different thing, referendum for the scots or for the kurds or for the catalans, i think that is the only way. Maybe at some point for the northern irish, who knows . I think the idea of trying to stop people expressing who they think they are as a nation, that is a simple question. That is a different sort of referendum to the one say the mad ones you have in california. Coming from california where on the November Ballot last year there were 17 Ballot Initiatives that the public were allowed to put on the ballot and vote on very complex questions that then nobody was able to actually do wade through and then understand, that for example one validation cancelled out another one so it became not an exercise in direct democracy really that everybody think it should be but rather an exercise in confusion and so i agree that often these referendums make very complex questions into productive yes or no answers which dont really fit. Im not sure that. A referendum is the only peaceful way to choose Self Determination, to choose nationhood but im not sure thats always a simple question either because from what i know of the kurdish referendum the kurds are, like the palestinians, historically stateless people who are a nation, there is no question that there is a kurdish nation, culturally, linguistically etc. But it is divided among several countries . It is divided amongst countries, politically difficult right now because immediately turkey has set if you vote yes we will block the oil pipeline because turkey is in a state of civil war with its own kurds, and has been for years. There is internal politics there, too, and demagoguery going on to because i know that it is not necessarily popular, basani, with the Younger Voters in Iraqi Kurdistan and this is a way to boost his own popularity. He is the president of kurdistan . He is the president of kurdistan. He is behind this, and that result was clear, 93 in favour. Absolutely because of course the kurds are going to vote yes for independence. How can they implemented, thats the problem. They cant come at the moment. And referendums that place in a vacuum either, either internally in a domestic environment or in a geopolitical one and so a referendum to actually succeed when it comes to nationhood, with south sudan for example, that was something where there was un backing, actual a framework internationally for Something Like that to happen and in this case you dont have that. If referendums polarise people, force them into this camp or this camp and never the twain shall meet, is there an argument if you are to have them that they should have more than one question, that actually you would kind of dissipate some of this if you had multiple questions . It doesnt make it all that much easier because you are still going to have a lot of complexity in it, still have lots of people often by the time you get to the day of voting they are actually voting on different sorts of issues. For instance we had the referendum on the alternative vote system. You would think it is a no brainer can you say to your electorate, would you like a little more choice in your Voting System . And the people who are against it, mostly the conservatives who were going to possibly lose out on a constitutional change, managed to persuade people that they didnt want more choice, that they wouldnt rather put a one, two, three order on the ballot paper because they were told it was going to. Politics was going to cost a lot more money, millions of pounds would be wasted on elections. It was all absolute nonsense. Also people wanted to get their own back on the liberal democrats who they thought it was a fix of theirs. It became about a whole lot of different things. Afterwards you stood back and thought this is extraordinary. People are offered more choice and they say no thank you and you know something has gone badly wrong. One place where choice looks a little simpler, the outcome of that choice going on now for months is in germany where Angela Merkel was re elected as chancellor. She will now have been in office for 12 years, and will be in office for a further four. It has left her with few options orforming a government. The social democrats who came second say they wont continue in coalition with mrs merkels cdu. She could not stomach working with the next largest party, alliance for germany, the far right, which got i2 . As for the free democrats and the green party puts together, could secure them a parliamentary majority, well, there is little on which they agree. The chancellor has already moved her finance minister apparently to please them. French president Emmanuel Macrons ambitions to reshape the eurozone depend on german support and such a coalition might not give it. Stefanie, it should have been a great celebration for Angela Merkel, is it as good an election result as she might have hoped for . And how much will it change . No, of course it was not the result she had hoped for. She went at the same night saying strategically we have achieved our goal because i am back in office. As you say it is going to be a bumpy time now because there is only one option and this is the so called Jamaica Coalition between cdu, black, the fco the liberals, yellow, and the greens, but it is going to take quite some time to form this coalition but the latest poll is saying that around 60 of the germans want this coalition, so there is quite a lot of pressure on the chancellor and everyone else especially the cc0, the bavarian branch of the cdu, they lost a lot of votes and last sunday, and they do not want to compromise now because they have another election coming up next year. They think there has been too much compromise. Exactly. Especially for the greens who are pro refugee, pro eu, eu in the sense of what the bavarians dont like, more money in Southern States and southern eu members and so on, so it is going to be very difficult but there is another thing that will put pressure on them and this is the afd, the right wing party. I think there is a sense in germany that we need to form a coalition, solid coalition soon because by the majority, 88 of the people didnt vote for the afd, they see this as a threat. Maria, in terms of how it is perceived in the rest of the europe, as mentioned Emmanuel Macron is very ambitious in this plan for reshaping certainly the eurozone part of the eu, britain will have left, and that might make things a little simpler. In 18 months or so. Is that made less likely by what is happening in germany . I dont know, who knows what will happen in the eu . Why worry at the moment, the right of the afd is at a with what will be happening over europe, far right parties all over gaining support and we have seen this revolt against the consensus that had begun this kind of lump in the centre of both centre left and centre right which was neoliberal economics, globalised economy, etc. So my worry is that europe will perhaps restructure itself internally but close borders more firmly outside, and the first thing Emmanuel Macron spoke about in his speech was defence, security borders. Angela merkel was damaged in part by her approach to immigration. Yes, the policy was the bright spot in a shockingly bad response by europe to the syrian crisis. She paid a price. She has. These are difficult things to work out but i dont want to see fortress europe kind of ordered with military defence against the rest of the world but nevertheless walkable inside. Do you think that is more likeable, stefanie, that sort of the approach Angela Merkel has two adopted in terms of riding the two horses . That is what she has been doing in the past months. Cast our minds back to 2015 where there was a daily 10,000 or 12,000 people daily coming into only bavaria, so now this has not, why has it start . Because in the balkans the borders have gone up and because the external borders are more secured also because there is a deal with turkey and merkel has been travelling to northern african countries to stop this influx and i think there should be no delusion, this is the reason it could have been worse with the afd if not also other countries might have helped Angela Merkel by stopping this flow. Do you see, polly, as a result of this and given in a sense europe might be getting less fractious if britain leads because it has been a reluctant eu member, will this be a task easier or harder for Angela Merkel . She remains the key figure. She and macron together will stop one shouldnt forget that it is a great relief that both of them are there at the stabilising factor. All of these fringe nacho nurse dick extreme right parties have been essentially defeated, they did not win in france in holland and germany. Not this time, though. Will enough change prevent that is to mark at one point in britain, we had the ukip winning 15 of the vote just because we have a different electoral system they didnt get a single mp but they are still very much on the margins and i dont think we should be overly obsessed. The great majority of europeans remain decent anti anti extremist, and i dont see an imminent move to change the essential values of europe which sadly britain is leaving but we should be a part of that. I agree with you, it is a good point but looking at germany also what we call the liberal centre has moved more to the right, or certainly in the general election and that is why i dont think that the policy of open orders from germany can continue. I cant talk for other countries but this is a no go because the long price that i be paid for this is too big. Do you think that if it changes it would be actually meaning that britain need never have left europe because they themselves, even if it was anti immigration, that caused our referendum result, do you think the result will change the rules so much in europe that we will question why we left . I think it is far too short to change that until march 2019 when the country is out anyway. Open borders is about people coming from outside of europe and within europe i think on the continent there isnt all that much objection with internal eu migration in the way that there was here in the country here because i think that will be solved. Lots of that will be very confused anyway. Fear that all of those outside europe people arriving in germany would come through the borders and have come to us, it was a much more anti muslim, to put it crudely, feeling than it was really anti polish or east european. I think i agree with stephanie that the danger is not so much that the far right parties will take power because their rhetoric and thinking seeps into what used to be the centre right parties, and moves the whole spectrum to the right. And i think that is happening, and in europe we also have two very right wing governments, hungary, poland, czech republic, and so the issue is how to manage this so that it doesnt infect the whole system. But i also dont think it is about immigration only, i dont think that the far right vote is only about immigration processes. In terms of germany and Angela Merkel, she had been regarded as kind of the most powerful force in european politics. If she is weakened, what are the indications are that, notjust within europe but internationally given that germany seems to be taking more International Roles in recent years . She was once described to me at the queen of europe but now that crown is tarnished and before, in terms of keeping her own grand coalition together, keeping that domestic side intact was easier and i think the refugee crisis sparked this fragmentation and the unfortunate seeping in of the far right. That means she will happily take care of backyard a bit more and do incremental deals with macron for example a wider european idea that is on the rocks at the moment. Macron at home is not necessarily going to be able to put some through so i think she is quite weakened, and that means something for europe, notjust germany. I think people have a sense of a loss of identity, a loss of culture and that is notjust about immigration and foreigners, it is about the decline of old communities, deindustrialisation, what has happened all over europe for economic and political reasons and not just because of foreigners coming in. Germany had been thought to the bb country that had got the balance of that right for a while, that it had a sense of that confidence about its social system, that people felt that there was a german identity, in the sense of leaving aside the nationalism question, the trouble with the way their germany function. That is true, in general, i think that is true, you can see however that with the afd read there is a western german phenomenon, and you dont see that in the east and you say that cultural and economic reasons, germany has the historic reasons and the fall of communism in as well. People in the east like the north of england people couldnt quite manage the gender schedule a new system of capitalism so this is where you have to pick up these people and bring them in. This is a big challenge, this is why ijust said there is a sense of urgency to fight the answer to this now because it has an effect on germany but it also has an effect on europe because it Angela Merkel cant move quickly she will not be able to do much about europe and there is a lot as you said Emmanuel Macron being desperate and he has only five years, the clock ticks for him, they need to find common ground. She could be spending months forming a government . Theoretically she could but there is a sense by christmas that it needs to be done. It will be all over by christmas x macro and then brexit causes low on the agenda. We think it is the most important thing in the german elections but nowhere tony blair persuaded britain by the labour party that it was only possible to win power by occupying the Centre Ground and back then Jeremy Corbyn as a sceptic a fringe figure on the left convinced a majority could still be won by persuading voters to shift his way. 20 years later