Transcripts For BBCNEWS BBC News At 9 20240713 : vimarsana.c

BBCNEWS BBC News At 9 July 13, 2024

To qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League. Good morning and welcome to the bbc news at 9. Party leaders are preparing to make a final attempt to win the backing of undecided voters on the last day of campaigning ahead of the general election. With 2a hours to go until polls open, in what both borisjohnson and Jeremy Corbyn have described as the most important election for a generation, politicians will appear at rallies in target seats across the uk, to make last ditch bids for support. Our correspondent alex forsyth is on the campaign trail with the Prime Minister. He is the first of those political leaders off the blocks this morning. I think hes already been taking pa rt i think hes already been taking part in one event. Tell us what hes been saying. Yes, theres always a Frenetic Energy to the final day of an Election Campaign and i think this one more than most and mixed in with that as a healthy dose of tension because this still feels very much like an election where its all still to play for in the final 2a hours and the outcome is farfrom certain, so weve final 2a hours and the outcome is far from certain, so weve seen the Prime Minister up and about very early this morning, starting his day in west yorkshire, where he was delivering milk to a family who asked him why he was up so early, in fa ct. Asked him why he was up so early, in fact. There is one pretty clear reason for that. Hes trying to get as many people behind him as possible in the last 2a hours. We are heading out to derbyshire before we go to south wales and then back into england. In essex and london, so into england. In essex and london, so its going to be a full day on the trail and the key message from the trail and the key message from the Prime Minister is the one we have heard time and time again throughout this campaign. He wants to keep the focus on his brexit pledge, his brexit promise. He will continue to target leave supporting areas, hoping he can win those voters around to his cause and he continues to warn about what he sees as the risk of a Jeremy Corbyn led government. The Prime Minister was asked how he was feeling in those final hours and this is what Boris Johnson had to say. There is a real risk again of a Hung Parliament which i think would be absolutely disastrous, economically disastrous, politically disastrous. Two more referendums, one on scotland and one on the european union. We cant afford more drift and dither and delay. I hope people will go for a one nation conservative government tomorrow and take the country forward. Thats what i want. We will return to politics of the moment but first lets go to the hague, where unsung sushi is speaking at the moment. This is day two of the International Court of justice brought by the gambia, accusing her of crimes under the convention on genocide. Lets listen. Approximately 400 fighters of the raw hunger Salvation Army launched simultaneous attacks on police posts rohinga. Near the border of bangladesh. The attacks led to the deaths of nine release officers, more than 100 dead of civilians and the theft of 68 guns and more than 10,000 rounds of ammunition. This was the start of an internal Armed Conflict between us and my arm across Defence Services which last until late 2017. The propositions contained in the application actively concerned in this conflict. In the months following the 9th of october 2016 attacks, it grew in strength. It resulted in threats and intimidation against local villagers in order to gain support and allegiance, executing suspected informers. According to, among others, the International Crisis group, weapons and explosives training was received in afghan and pakistan. In the Early Morning of 25th of august 2017, several thousand fighters launched a coordinated attack on more than 30 police posts and villages and an army base. Most of the attacks took place on a narrow plane framed by densely forested hills to the east and the border of bangladesh to the west. Indications are that objectives were to seize the township nearby. I urge the court to consider the historical significance of this place. When it was made separate in 1937 by the british, the border between burma and india was drawn along the river where we find todays border between bangladesh and myron ma. Myanmar. The historical kingdom had extended to the north than the river, including most of what is today the bangladesh northern district. Members of this Community Felt that the border drawn by the british was too far south. 0thers by the british was too far south. Others that it was too far north. Myanmar is never challenged this border since independence in 1948. Britain did not lose control over what is today the township during world war ii. From september 1942, a number of local muslim families offered fighters to the british irregular setup to collect intelligence initially absorb any japanese advance. Many muslims gave their lives in combat against the japanese. The sacrifices made by muslim fighters motivated a call for the creation of an autonomous muslim space centred on a myanmar. Whether 01 space centred on a myanmar. Whether or not this was encouraged by british officers, britain rejected this call as soon as it had reoccupied burma before independence in 1948. The muslim buddhists entered communal violence in 1942, recurring in 1948 and several times after that. This cycle of violence has negatively affected life here making it the second poorest state in myanmar. Mr president , and members of the court, may i go back to the situation on the morning of 20th of august 2017 . More than 30 Police Station and villages and one military base had been attacked before sunrise in a highly coordinated fashion by an organised armed Group Operating along a densely forested hill range that provides ample opportunities for hiding. Many of the fighters had been recruited from local villagers in the weeks and months preceding the attack. Myanmars Defence Services responded to the attacks of the fighters by the use of ground forces. They were armed and incidence in more than 60 locations. The main clashes occurred in 12 places. Mr president , please allow me to clarify the use of the term clea ra nce clarify the use of the term clearance operation. Its meaning has been distorted. As early as the 19505, been distorted. As early as the 1950s, this term has been used during military operations against the burma communist party. Since then, the military has used this expression in counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism Operations after attacks by insurgents or terrorists. In the myanmar language, it literally means clearing of locality. Simply meaning to clear an area of insurgents or terrorists. It is still not easy to establish clear patterns of events in these 12 locations. Many fighters died. There may have been several hundred casualties in some of the 12 locations. There was some intercommunal violence, buddhist communities feared for their lives and many fled. It may be worth noting that the use of air power in military operations was avoided as far as possible. Studio watching the leader Aung San Suu Kyi speaking there at the International Court for justice at the hague, pretty much 28 years since she accepted the Nobel Peace Prize while under house arrest. Today defending the state, the army that capture under house arrest for so many years, against allegations that myanmar committed genocide against the minority Rohinga Muslim group in the country. Day two of that three day hearing at the hague, we will talk to an International Lawyer about the proceedings very shortly. But now lets return to our main story today, of course, just 24 hours to go until polls open. A little less, in fact. The leaders of all the main critical parties are of course out on a busy day ahead trying to persuade remaining undecided voters to vote for them. 0ur assistant Political Editor norman smith is in westminsterfor us. Weve already heard from the Prime Minister this morning. Tell us about other leaders in what they are doing and saying today, norman. Jeremy corbyn, like Boris Johnson, and saying today, norman. Jeremy corbyn, like borisjohnson, is doing a mad journey around constituencies, starting today in scotland, and then winds its way through five constituencies, back to london this evening and his message is now was a moment for real change. We have arrived at a fork in the road, where people can make a choice for a very different sort of country and he is promising radical change with, as we know, plans to nationalise some Key Industries and to give a much greater role for the state. Looking at the campaign, labour know they are behind. They had a difficult day yesterday with john ashworth, however, they do not believe it is mission impossible. They look at the last election, whenJeremy Corbyn slowly, slowly, seems to be picking up slowly, slowly, seems to be picking up ground in the last few days of the campaign and they believe that is happening again, that Boris Johnson has begun to lose a bit of momentum. Questions of trust have begun to creep more into this campaign. People not convinced that borisjohnson is absolutely trustworthy and, above all, they believe there is an appetite out there for radical change, so this morning we heard from the shadow chancellor, john mcdonnell, saying that there was still a prospect of a labour government. There no doubt about it, and a numberof there no doubt about it, and a number of constituencies, its tough but its interesting because at the beginning of this campaign, like 2017, it was almost as though the commentators and media were saying the labour party was going to be wiped out and youve seen the trend. I dont always believe in polls but ido i dont always believe in polls but i do look at the trend of the trend has been towards us, and we saw last night with a margin of error is now about ensuring that Boris Johnson isnt in government, and i think we are in striking distance of a labour government. The lib dems of course still sticking to that core message that if you want to stop brexit, then vote liberal democrat, but it has been a difficult election for them. They have been caught on that hook of their policy of revoked, which they have struggled with throughout the campaign and still on the eve of the election, they are having to explain and justify why they put forward the idea that they would revoke brexit if there was a live damn government. This was the Home Affairs Spokesman christine jardine. What we said at the time is what we have seen which is for three and half years we have campaigned for a Second Opportunity for people to say whether or not they like the final deal that was brought forward by the conservative government. Now thatis by the conservative government. Now that is not changed and what we said was if we won a majority in the election, that would be such a seismic change in british politics, it would take such a difference for us it would take such a difference for us to win the majority then that would show that there was the will of the people, if you like, had changed, and that there was support for staying within the european union. Meanwhile, in scotland, the snp leader Nicola Sturgeon has written an open letter to voters saying that in scotland, the snp other party to stop brexit and to lock Boris Johnson other party to stop brexit and to lock borisjohnson out of downing street. So, all the parties trying to hone theirfinal street. So, all the parties trying to hone their final message. Street. So, all the parties trying to hone theirfinal message. Many voters will have already made up their minds, perhaps some still are unsure, but what is probably true is that for all of us, this is probably the most seismic election in our lifetime, because we are facing huge change and divergent offers from the main two parties and, lets be honest, its become a contest between the two main parties with Jeremy Corbyn offering a much greater role for the state and Boris Johnson pledging to take britain out of the european union, so a truly huge choice facing voters at this election. Norman, thank you very much. The bbcs opinion poll tracker suggests the conservatives retain a solid lead over labour in the final week of the campaign. A yougov poll published last night suggests the tories are on course for a majority of around 28 seats. Thats 40 seats fewer than the same organisation projected nearly a fortnight ago. The researchers say the wide margin of error means they cannot rule out either a Hung Parliament or a larger conservative majority. The poll is based on interviews with about 100,000 people during the past week. Well, jeremy vine has been taking a closer look at the numbers for us. Lets remember first of all the result of the last general election 2017. Here inside our virtual house of commons, you remember the disastrous bungle by theresa mays conservatives had led them losing David Camerons majority. 326 mps needed for majority in house of commons which is a 650 mps, they got three 108. So fell short. They got a long way back, labour. 262, and the snp, 432 and so on, but the key figure of the night was this one on the wall, which is that the conservatives under theresa may were short by age, so on paper, in this election, 2019, all the conservatives need to do is gain eight seats. Lets bring on the swingometer and see how difficult that would be. It shows you one party in relation to another. If they both stay exactly as they were, last time, than the swing is zero. If you imagine a head to head race, between two parties, the swing shows you where the votes are going. So what sort of swing do the conservatives require . Just to gain eight seats. Lets have a look. Its tiny. Just about half of 1 . A swing into labour territory games the conservatives theres eight seats and, in theory, an overall majority but of course, they would need to not lose any seats either. And that isa not lose any seats either. And that is a bit ofa not lose any seats either. And that is a bit of a task for them. A huge task for labour overall. Lets now show what sort of swing labour would need for an overall majority. Here we see nearly 4 would get labour 45 conservative seats and other seats from other parties, as well, and give them an overall majority in the house of commons. That is a big swing but there is a problem with that particular swing because include scotland, where labour is polling very badly, so what if we say to the swingometer, 0k, show us what sort of swing you would need to get if you are labour and you can find it just to get if you are labour and you can find itjust to england and wales . What kind of swing would you need and here is the answer for you. What kind of swing would you need and here is the answerfor you. It is 6 or thereabouts. An absolutely massive swing, including a seat like rochford in essex where the conservative majority is 5500 which seems unlikely, to say the least. If labour want to be the largest party, they would require a swing of around about 2 , which games the 29 seats on the conservatives and other seats of the parties, as well, so for labour, a mountain to climb, but for the conservatives, not a piece of cake. Jeremy vine. Let us stay on this theme. It is the final day of campaigning in the last chance for the pollsters to give us their best prediction of the result and not long before we find out if they were right. Lets speak to bbcs head of out if they statistics robert cuffe. Good morning. Tell us where we are with the polls. The broad story is there has been a lot of squeeze but not necessarily that much change because if you look at the way the numbers have transpired over the course of the campaign, on screen, both labour and the conservatives have increased their vote share at the expense of their vote share at the expense of the brexit party and the liberal democrats, but they have both been moving up in parallel, both gaining about five points, so although theyve squeeze the other party, the difference in first and second place, conservative and labour, have been Holding Steady in and around the ten point range, so there hasnt been much change in that throughout the campaign. Thats interesting given where we were at the start of the campaign with talks of other parties making serious inroads but then tactical voting is coming into play, so lets see. How will that translate into seats, actual seats in westminster . Yougov have been putting up models, taking the National Trends and applying them to each constituency, so for example old people may be more likely to vote conservatives sales the bigger conservative vote in constituencies where there are more older people and what they have shown in the modelling they have done is probably a majority for the conservatives but they wouldnt rule out a Hung Parliament, so you can see here the range of positive seat numbers, the conservatives, 311 57. Thats a best estimate, 339. Thats a majority of about 28. Similar ranges for each of the other parties but as you can see from that horizontal majority line, the conservatives includes a majority, seismic one, but also a Hung Parliament. Basically, with polling starting tomorrow, there a wide rang

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