Now on bbc news dateline london. Hello, im shaun ley. Welcome to the programme, which brings together some of the uks leading commentators, bbc specialists, and those journalists whove worked as Foreign Correspondents, Filing Stories to audiences back home from the dateline london. This week will there be enough Vaccine Doses . The uk closes its doors to some but infuriates china by opening them to kong hongers. And what a disputed Prime Ministerial visit tells us about the future of the union. 0n dateline� s panel this week janet daley, whose columns appear weekly in the sunday telegraph. Jeffrey kofman is a former tv anchor and Foreign Correspondent in canada and the United States. And here with me in the studio is vincent knee, a china specialist with bbc world news. Warm welcome to all of you. The European Commission has been Piling Pressure on the vaccine manufacturer astrazeneca all week, angry that millions of doses it agreed to supply to the eu before the end of march may be cut by up to 60 because of manufacturing problems. Yet, its decision friday to invoke part of the brexit deal, an Emergency Power to potentially introduce checks on the border between Northern Ireland part of the uk and the republic of ireland, in the eu, was incendiary. Before the night was over, brussels executed a humiliating u turn. It highlights, though, something we talked about on this programme last weekend the risk of vaccine nationalism, particularly at a time when both astrazeneca and pfizer have warned of production delays. Jeffrey, was this about securing more vaccines, do you think, or was it more about trying to pacify eu governments after the commission failed to meet its objectives . Very clearly, the eu governments are feeling the pressure, looking across the channel here at the uk and seeing the astonishing numbers that have been vaccinated. Probably the only thing the uk government has done well. To its credit, the uk government has done well. Meanwhile, we are seeing these reports from spain, france, elsewhere that they are running out of vaccines. You can understand the pressure they are feeling. On one hand, this does expose the fundamental problem with the eu that partly inspired brexit, and to be clear, im not a fan of brexit, but i have to say that the eus bureaucracy, its inability to move with agility a year ago when this first surfaced really is exposed in this problem. Now it is trying to point fingers across the channel and the uk responded quickly, it is not fair, give us some of your vaccines. This is very much an internal response to say, we are not going to take it lying down, but how humiliating this is for the eu leadership. Janet, the government here has been under some pressure, feeling the heat over the Vaccine Question with the bma saying it is not happy with this recommendation that people have to wait 12 weeks for the second dose of the pfizer vaccine. All governments are facing trouble, theyve pre bought doses, but they cant promise they can deliver the Vaccination Programme they hope to achieve. Thats not the lesson of the day. This has been the most extraordinary tutorial the eu has given us in the value of the democratic nation state with an elected government directly accountable to its own population. Its turned out to be the most effective, flexible, proactive and responsive form of government in the world. And the tutorial that the eu has given us in the dangers of supranational. They send us quite explicitly, the ideological commitment to unified action of all 27 Member States and to the bureaucratic processes it took to get what turned out to be quite a simple and effective action that the uk took on Ordering Vaccine and subsidising the production of it. That is a lesson most people in europe and certainly in this country will not forget. What about the practicalities of distribution of the vaccine . Some of those who have already received their first dose, they have said they worry about whether they are going to get their second dose, they worry about whether they can be confident about the protection they have. That requires quite a lot of adept communication, doesnt it, from government and its medical experts . To try and ensure people feel reassured beyond just getting the injection itself . Sure, it does, yes, and it is not helped when president Macron Cast Doubt Out on the effectiveness of the vaccine that the eu is complaining they cant get enough of. The contradictions, and the stomping around in europe, has really helped undermine the vaccination argument. If anything, it is bolstering the anti vax argument, which seems to be quite wicked and morally irresponsible. Yes, of course, it will require reassurance, and of course this is a free country, you get conflicting opinions, but, on the whole, i have to say from my personal experience, from the experience of everyone i have talked to, the vaccine roll out is a miracle in this country. It is phenomenally effective. The way. Its almost startling the way the website, in which you book appointments, is working. This is a real Success Story for the uk and for the idea of National Governments which respond to the needs of their own populations instantly. Im going to mention another supranational organisation, the world health organization. Warning earlier this month that 95 of vaccines, mid january, this will have changed a little, 95 vaccines were going to just ten countries in the world. People in those ten countries. Again this weekend, who saying, look, there has to be a move away from vaccine nationalism. When push comes to shove, its inevitable, isnt it, that countries want to protect their own citizens first . Yeah, this is a real moral dilemma we are facing. L may i remind you that in many of the developing world, they dont have the luxury to have that vocabulary i in their dictionary, because there are simply not enough vaccines to start with. According to some research, over 90 of the population i in some 67 developing countries would not get a chance to be vaccinated by the end. Of 2021, and the danger of the virus is, we know it. Mutates, and in some cases mutations might threaten l the efficacy of the vaccine. So, the longer we leave i the virus to linger around, the more dangerous it could be. Jeffrey, that raises the question, if the Eu Commission is talking about having at least requiring exports to be notified to it by manufacturers, we are kind of moving towards that situation, arent we . Where other countries will worry more about supplies . This at a time when countries like the uk and eu countries, saying, of course we will make sure that vaccines go to the poorest countries and the people most in need. Listen, i think that what this tells us is that even if all of the uk gets vaccinated by september, as may well happen, the world is not going to open up. There may be a limited or phased reopening in the uk, but the idea that air flights can resume, that we can start travelling to see family or take vacations in far flung places, itsjust not going to happen in 2021. We need to manage our expectations here. I think that we ignore the developing world at our peril, as vincent said. The idea that there is going to be the first world, or the west will be vaccinated and selected parts of asia and the rest of africa and Latin America Etc Willjust have to wait is going to cause notjust a disparity, but a huge threat from the virus itself and economic threat as well. Pushing regions that are already very poor into further poverty. There is a need to have a more Coherent Global Strategy here. Its worth noting that norway has committed to sending some of its vaccines to the developing world. Were not hearing that from borisjohnson, we are not hearing that from the eu or North America at this stage. We really do have to shift the discussion here to a more globalised solution rather than a vulcanised regional solution that says we are all fine, the rest of you, sink or swim. Its party time in beijing Communist Party time. Chinas Leadership Will throughout 2021 be marking the centenary of the organisation which took power in 1949 and has been there ever since. But the mood this weekend isnt celebratory. Chinas Foreign Ministry has attacked a british scheme, applying from first thing monday morning, which would allow thousands of hong kongers to escape the new security law and settle in the uk. And it issued a blunt warning to taiwan, which it says is part of china independence means war. What explains the belligerent tone . The issues are slightly separate hong kong will be a difficult Talking Point between china and the uk in years to come. It might poison the. Relationship as well. The issue of taiwan, this is standard for china because china has always regarded taiwan as its i breakaway province, and president xi has been shown to take taiwan back before too long, although we dont know yet. In terms of taiwan, | it is more of a signal to the Biden Administration. The ball is really in bidens court, with what is going. To happen about taiwan. The way we phrase this| taiwan issue, question, it is, in fact, the largest and biggest flashpoint l in the region, but it. Could also be regarded as the most successful example of peace in i the region between. In the last few decades, since the establishmentj of relations between the us and china. I so the Biden Administration will try to go to taipei and beijing to persuade both sides to not unilaterally change the status quo. The ambiguity of the status quo benefits the region, benefits i the peace in the region. We have seen a lot of changes in both taipei and beijing, and, of course, domestically in washington we have also seen quite a lotj of changes in policy. We will have to see what the Biden Administration comes up with, but also the centenary of the Communist Party will matter to bolster domestic confidence that the communist rule in china is superior in a time of crisis than the system in the west. Its interesting, janet, that the biden team pointedly invited the de facto ambassador to washington who represents taiwan to the inauguration, which seemed a bit of a signal to beijing. What sort of approach do you think biden will adopt . A very good question. The thing is, this new cold war with china has really taken the west by surprise. It is not at all like the old cold war with the soviet union, which was straightforwardly communist and was in an ideological war with west. China is tyrannical capitalism, if you like. State capitalism. It is engaging in global markets, it wants to dominate global markets. But that gives it a very different kind of weakness, in a sense. In a perverse sort of way. Because, if youre selling things to people, in an open market, and you have a real currency, not an economy that is a kind of fiction, you cant bankrupt your clients, you cant bankrupt your customers. Its not in chinas interest for western economies to collapse because they want to sell us things. What they want to do is dominate the global markets, they want to become the dominant economic power in the world to replace the United States in that position, but they also have to be very careful because they are playing the capitalist game. And even though their supposedly private companies are answerable to the communist tyranny, to the totalitarian government, they are still engaged in the rules of Market Economy at a global level, so this is a very hard situation to call, it is quite unprecedented, it is not at all like the competition the west was having with the soviet union, which really supposedly anyway wanted to undermine capitalism as an economic philosophy. There was this optimism certainly in the early 90s that lasted quite a long time, that the wto, i was in hong kong when theyjoined the wto, there was a big celebration all round although there were protests on the street, the idea that you bring them in on economic grounds the political culture will change. That optimism has vanished now . Yes, and what we have seen now, china is really surprising the west with the aggressive nature of its Foreign Policy in this area. The challenge for china, to go back to what vincent said, while hong kong and taiwan are very different, one of the problems china has in saying that taiwan is a province of china, taiwan of course calls itself an independent country, although it is not recognised like that by most countries around the world, one of the problem is that china has is that having this one country two systems state in hong kong was the Big Selling Point Of Handover Two decades ago. Yet, we have seen in recent years, China Whittling away at that pretty significantly. Therefore its credibility in saying we can do the same in taiwan, we can have one country, two systems, look what weve done in hong kong, it doesnt really wash globally. So, china can sabre rattle all at it wants, but the people taiwan will look at hong kong and say, right, trust your . Its not working so well there. Janet, the interesting question that historically something similar happened in china, when the Communist Party to power, try to reassure businesses that everything we carry on, but things change quickly. Is there a danger of this happening in hong kong, showcase for china . Yeah, thats difficult for china. Hong kong is this phenomenally successful marketplace. A great earnerfor china. They dont want to kill the golden goose. What they will decide to do they are trying a very uncomfortable fit in hong kong, which is to undermine democratic freedoms but maintain the capitalist success. I dont see how that is going to play out, and i dont actually think the chinese know how it is going to play out. They are obviously trying to terrorise the population into giving up their civil liberties, but the people are adamant they will maintain their liberties and democratic rights. It looks insoluble from this distance, but i cant see how this is ever going to find a solution that the world and china can find satisfactory. Vincent, on the neighbourhood, as it were. Whats curious is that it doesnt matter what the west thinks, butjapan, india, south korea, taiwan we have mentioned, all of these countries, south korea, it seems to have kind of got into arguments with, it seems to be throwing its weight around in the region, and i wonder what the strategy is, do you think, for doing that . I think taiwan and hong kong is a way for beijing to make l a point that it is in charge. There is a lot of criticism over chinas behaviour, i south china, hong kong, i part of china, beijing feels it has the legitimate i right to do something about its own territory. There is a lot of criticism over chinas behaviour, i but a more difficult question i for western commentators is, for a country of chinas size, 1. 4 billion people, its economic power and weight. We have seen a lot of| criticism, but not a lot of constructive suggestions what type of relations we want with china. In the years to come. I think thats going. To be a more difficult question for the decades to come, perhaps. A lot of scratching of heads well beyond this celebratory year for the Chinese Communist party. The Vaccination Programme was Boris Johnsons justification for visiting scotland this week. Why did the Prime Minister need one . Because the pandemic restrictions imposed by scotlands government to which powers have been devolved for more than 20 years ban all but essential journeys. This, declared the first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, a champion of Scotland Separating from the uk, was not essential. Janet, as i say, in truth, in the uk system, the pm can go anywhere he likes. But i wonder what it reveals, if you like, about this real tension in the uk now about the future of the union . The tension is very much dependent on scotland insisting that it wants to continue as a member of the eu. Good luck with that. At the moment, i dont think thats going to be a hugely popular horse to be riding. The justification for breaking away from the uk or the kind of explanation of why breaking away from the uk would work is that they would then become members of the eu, or will apply to become members of the eu. At the moment, membership of the eu doesnt look like such a great deal, so i really wonder how much this is going to affect the Scottish Nationalist position, and what they are going. How they are going to look in this really awful kind of war of words, as it were, between the eu and the uk. You have to remember thatjust under half of the Scottish Population have said that they do not want to be independent and it does not take much to push that over the line. We will see how this plays out. Maybe this whole Vaccine Drama will fade away. And previous views about joining the union or leaving the european union. I think Nicola Sturgeon is in a very uncomfortable position. And this kind of showboating about borisjohnson. Geoffrey. Its important, janet. I think these are not simply rational decisions. As we saw with brexit, there is a lot of emotion and misinformation that informs these kind of decisions. I think the irony of seeing borisjohnson sneaking into scotland, he didnt reveal his agenda in advance, travel plans, he didnt want protesters, he essentially went to scotland to avoid meeting scottish people and for some photo ops. For him to be actually using that as an opportunity to sneak in the message of a United Kingdom against scottish secession is the ultimate irony, for a man who was actually elected on a platform of home rule and bringing back control. Thats not lost on the scottish people. I think that candidly Nicola Sturgeons greatest ally in Scottish Independence is borisjohnson, he simply has no credibility on this issue and, while it is true the Vaccination Programme is something to be proud of in this country, despite some problems, it really is astonishing, that alone is not going to keep scotland in the union. Janet, can i pick up on this question of what the Prime Minister has to do . He styled himself as ministerfor the union, and obviously covid has kind of diverted that. Is it possible the conservative party, given its historic scepticism about the effectiveness of devolution, and being the conservative and unionist party, to use its full name, can come up with a credible alternative to either independence or the status quo . In a sense, that is the missing part of this debate at the moment. Hang on, the conservatives arent the only ones who are espousing the continuation of the union. They are in power. Hang on, waita minute, the labour party is speaking very much against Scottish Nationalism because they have a real dog in this fight they do not want to lose what used to be, anyway, reliably labour seats. If scotland were to become truly independent, labour would lose a considerable cohort of its westminster mps. No one wants scotland to leave, it is notjust a practical problem for the immediate tory government, but its been a problem for successive governments and was largely labour who proposed the Devolution Solution because they were hoping to buy off the Scottish National interest, and the tories did the same thing, fell into the same trap, but all the parties of the uk wants the union to remain together, all The Westminster parties. It isntjust a philosophical problem for the tories. Its a practical problem, in the end. Givenjanet� s argument, they have all got to go, what lessons, briefly, if you can, are there from chinas area of the world, if you like, from some of those countries, particularly in southeast asia, but how you can make Federation Work . Im not sure asia wouldj like to take any lessons from europe these days. At the moment there is a lot of tactics on how Nicola Sturgeonl is going to get the referendum, whether there will be a right to hold it. What im going to say is, getting your country independent is one thing, being able to run the independent country is another. Back in 2014, the first scottish referendum, | we talked about what happens if scotland leaves the uk from defence to security to budget, whatever you call it, lots of things that Nicola Sturgeon hasl to articulate in the months and weeks to come. The scottish referendum, if theres any global perspective, everyone is going to watch very closely, china is going to watch with a lot of curiosity l and questions as well. Spain is going to watch with wariness, because they have their own catalonia problem, and Nicola Sturgeon as well as other Pro Independence activists have been saying that, once we leave the uk, we will have a chance i tojoin the european union. Whether the spanish opinion would matter in this process| is another question, but all of this has shown the process would feed i into an existing narrative outside of the uk that, l in a time of post Brexit Britain and in a time of covid 19 crisis, i Boris Johnson is struggling to uphold the integrity of the union, and that. Will have huge diplomatic implications for this country. Thank you all very much. Geeta guru murphy will be in this chair next weekend. Dojoin her then. Ill be back in a fortnight. Goodbye. Hello. It may be a new month but the weather pattern, for now, is staying the same. So in the week ahead, there will be low Pressure Systems coming our way, there will be more rain to flood affected areas, some snow as the wet weather pushes north, causing some disruption, and although milder for some of us, thats not going to last. A damp start for some to the south, close to this area of low pressure for monday morning. This is a much more vigorous Weather System coming our way with that Rain And Snow Monday Night and into tuesday. Monday not starting as cold as sunday morning. Still, the coldest parts of scotland close to minus double figures. Quite sharp frost in scotland and Northern England under clear skies, but with some sunshine for monday morning. Icy where were still seeing some wintry showers towards the north and east of scotland. Damp and drizzly with plenty of misty, murky conditions across parts of Southern England and wales. Parts of the the midlands, though, and east anglia may brighten up into the afternoon. And rain and hill snow spreading north across Northern Ireland during the afternoon, and that Will Push Into Parts Of Scotland into monday evening. But this area of rain is from that low Pressure System i showed you. Some heavier rain pushing north into the Cold Air Monday Night and into tuesday. Were going to see some snow out of that in parts of wales, the midlands and Northern England before it turns to rain but briefly very icy with that, and the snow by Tuesday Morning across Northern England and into parts of scotland, so a covering for some of us to start the day, some very difficult Travel Conditions and although for some it will turn to rain, still into parts of the pennines and scotland on tuesday, there will be further snow, and the totals really starting to mount up into the Higher Ground particularly. South of that, its turning milder and there will be a few sunny spells but there will also be a few heavy showers around. It could be thundery, too. This area of low pressure is still close by going into wednesday. And particularly for parts of Northern Ireland, Northern England and scotland, some rain, some snow around. Another Weather System coming in towards the south. Uncertainty about how far north its going to bring its rain but some of us will get a sizeable dose of rain for that, we think, during wednesday. In between the two Weather Systems, you could actually have a dry day, you could actually see a bit of sunshine. And as we go towards the end of the week, it looks like the weather will begin to quieten down a little bit. And where temperatures have gone up, youll notice theyll come down again, and it is looking colder going into next weekend. This is bbc news welcome if youre watching here in the uk or around the globe. Im Lewis Vaughan jones. Our top stories the military in myanmar confirms it has carried out a coup, and declares a state of emergency. The countrys de facto leader Aung San Sui Kyi has been detained. This move follows weeks of complaints by the military over alleged fraud in last novembers general election, in which ms Suu Kyis National League for democracy won a resounding majority. This is an assault on democracy itself, on the people of myanmar, on their hopes and their aspirations, and the people of myanmar need to know that the world is watching and the world is with them. More than 5,000 people are arrested in russia, as protests take place in support ofjailed 0pposition leader, alexei navalny
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