Shelters are overcrowded and water cannot be pumped orfiltered because of his roles block on fuel and bottled water is now unaffordable for most families. Rishi sunak will continue his tour of The Middle East today amid growing fears in the region that the conflict in gaza could spread. Chiara bleeders gallery in egypt ahead of the summit this weekend to discuss the crisis. In saudi arabia last night the Prime Minister met the crown prince. Number 10 said the pair agreed that the loss of innocent lives in israel and gaza over the last few weeks has been horrific. He said he will encourage saudi arabia to use its influence in The Middle East. As you have been Hearing Withjo votes continue to be counted in the Mid Bedfordshire and tamworth by elections. We could have declarations in the next hour. Turnout in tamworth was 35. 9 cent that is low even for a by election. The vote followed the resignation of the former conservative deputy whip chris pincher in september. Our team in tamworth saying labourfigures are feeling pretty confident. Turnout in Mid Bedfordshire was 44 . The poll was triggered by the resignation of Nadine Dorries. The former conservative Culture Secretary had a majority of nearly 25,000 in 2019. One senior conservative there has told us it is too close to call. Our polling expert professor sir john curtice says the low turn out is a warning to the political parties. The truth is it looks as though the fall in turnout in by elections in this parliament is going to be higher than it has been in any Previous Post word that make post war. It is running at an average of 28 points but last time we had a very perceptive drop in turnout was the parliament of 1997 2001 at the end of which we had a turnout in the General Election of less than 60 so i think there is a warning here to our politicians that voters are not happy at the moment nor are they encouraged to turn out to vote. Just in case the Conservative Party are saying hang on, that means they will come back to us, we should also say that the resumption on average of 2a Point Drop in turnout in the 92 97 parliament and i dont need to remind conservative parliament different politicians what happened there. The body of a 57 year old woman has been recovered from a river in angus, as storm babet sweeps across Eastern Scotland. Hundreds of people have been told to leave their homes. A rare red Weather Warning is in force for angus, aberdeenshire and parts of perthshire which means there is a risk to life. While the focus is on the situation in Eastern Scotland right now, there is also concern over the impact of rainfall expected to build up on the eastern side of the pennines and peak district, as well as parts of greater manchester, cheshire and the borders, with Asterly Winds Piling Rain into the area during the day. A met Office Amber Warning comes into force from noon ith up to 120 milimetres of rain possible, with flooding and disruption likely. Train passengers are facing another six months of potential strikes after members of the rmt union voted to continue taking Strike Action in their dispute about pay, jobs and conditions. The dispute with Rail Companies has been going on for nearly 18 months already. No fresh strike dates have been announced. Ill be back with an update later, now back tojo and our election special. Welcome back as we await the result from the two by elections, one in tamworth and staffordshire and the other in Mid Bedfordshire. Both seats vacated by two conservative mps who stepped down in slightly difficult circumstances, lets put it that way. We hope to get both results within the next hour or so but for the next few hours we have jonathan ashworth. If you were looking at both these by elections, a huge majority for conservatives in Rocksolid Tory seats. Which one would you be more confident about for labour . Ijust arrived. What is the gossip . You are meant to tell me that. Wejust the gossip . You are meant to tell me that. We just heard from peter kyle who has led the campaign for the labour party. He sounds confident but confident about taking lots of votes from the conservatives but whether that is enough to win, he could not be sure at this point. Also a little bit of fear and frustration at the Liberal Democrats for daring to take part in a by election which i think is their right but may have prevented them having a clear shot at victory. The . Having a clear shot at victory. They are to save having a clear shot at victory. They are to save conservative having a clear shot at victory. Iie are to save conservative seats. Comfortable majorities for the conservatives so if they are in trouble there tonight that raises serious questions for the conservative government. I think there is a yearning for change across the country and i think that is clear. I think people who voted conservative in recent elections are looking at the labour party are fresh and people who voted conservative, i have Friends Neighbours and relations who voted conservative all their life and they think this Conservative Party have moved away from them. Henge think this Conservative Party have moved away from them. Have they fallen in love moved away from them. Have they fallen in love with moved away from them. Have they fallen in love with keir moved away from them. Have they fallen in love with keir starmer . I fallen in love with keir starmer . Lets see what happens with these Election Results this evening. These majorities are substantial and the swings that are needed to overtake them are quite significant. But even if you do not take these seats, lets see what the swings are because many conservative mps will because many conservative mps will be watching this result tonight or waking up and when they see the swing they will know they are in trouble. Which seat will tell us more about labb� s chances of winning the next election, even if you dont win them, which one, tamworth or Mid Bedfordshire will be more indicative of where labour is in terms of uncovering . I am of where labour is in terms of uncovering . Iam not of where labour is in terms of uncovering . I am not going to choose a seat in that respect. They are two important constituencies and important constituencies and important by elections that we have been fighting hard for both and they are both of huge significance. Lets see what the results are. But in both constituencies is it is clear to me that conservatives feel conservative government has moved away from them and they are looking at the labour party and looking at the changed message that keir starmer has been articulating to the country. If labb does win and we are speculating but if they have taken as many votes away from conservatives in these two seats, people will be nervous. Tory mps in safe seats will be nervous and there will be more pressure on rishi sunak because everything will be up for grabs at the General Election. I dont want to repeat myself. Say something about how conservative mps in safe seats will feel if labour have made such big inroads. You will win them but they have made big inroads. ,. , win them but they have made big inroads. ,. ,. Inroads. Colleagues say we look at every burelection inroads. Colleagues say we look at every byelection is inroads. Colleagues say we look at every byelection is a inroads. Colleagues say we look at every byelection is a government| inroads. Colleagues say we look at. Every byelection is a government we every by election is a government we have been every by election is a government we have been in every by election is a government we have been in power for 13 years and it is difficult have been in power for 13 years and it is difficult for a government when it is difficult for a government when a it is difficult for a government when a by election and we know that there when a by election and we know that there is when a by election and we know that there is a when a by election and we know that there is a lot. When a byelection and we know that there is a lot. There is a lot. Well, you held one. There is a lot. Well, you held me you there is a lot. Well, you held one. You held there is a lot. Well, you held one. You held oxbridge. There is a lot. Well, you held one. You held oxbridge. Absolutely. When there one. You held oxbridge. Absolutely. When there was one. You held oxbridge. Absolutely. When there was a one. You held oxbridge. Absolutely. When there was a byelection one. You held oxbridge. Absolutely. When there was a byelection for. One. You held oxbridge. Absolutely. When there was a byelection for a l when there was a by election for a position of principle when it was a conservative view of how we should proceed versus a labour view. Watering down that zero. We have not watered watering down that zero. We have not watered down any. We would be very happy watered down any. We would be very happy to watered down any. We would be very happy to come to that in a minute. But these happy to come to that in a minute. But these are by elections, mid term in a period but these are by elections, mid term in a period where people are sceptical in a period where people are sceptical and are looking at the government to deliver the change that they government to deliver the change that they need, they are not sold on the labour that they need, they are not sold on the labour party. We know we need to work hard the labour party. We know we need to work hard to the labour party. We know we need to work hard to win the trust of the british work hard to win the trust of the british people again and were going to do that british people again and were going to do that and that is why we are focused, to do that and that is why we are focused, whatever the results, we are going focused, whatever the results, we are going to be focused on delivering for the british people and delivering on priority set up by the prime and delivering on priority set up by the Prime Minister and taking tough decisions the Prime Minister and taking tough decisions to build a Brighter Future for the decisions to build a Brighter Future for the uk decisions to build a Brighter Future for the uk. That is what people expect for the uk. That is what people expect. Andrew is right. By elections are not the same, clearly, by elections are not the same, clearly, as by elections are not the same, clearly, as a General Election. They are is clearly, as a General Election. They are is directly used as a chance for voters are is directly used as a chance for voters to are is directly used as a chance for voters to protest against the incumbents, against the government of the incumbents, against the government of the day incumbents, against the government of the day and the tories have been in power of the day and the tories have been in power for of the day and the tories have been in power for 13 years. I could put the question way then. If you do not take these the question way then. If you do not take these two see where you have been take these two see where you have been consistently ahead in the polls by anything between 16 20 points and rishi sunaks, possibly, the last in a run rishi sunaks, possibly, the last in a run of rishi sunaks, possibly, the last in a run of conservative Prime Ministers, a run of conservative Prime Ministers, people may think, particularly in tamworth which you did hotd particularly in tamworth which you did hold up particularly in tamworth which you did hold up to 2010, neighbour you are not did hold up to 2010, neighbour you are not on did hold up to 2010, neighbour you are not on track to win the General Election are not on track to win the General Election. , � , are not on track to win the General Election. , � , are not on track to win the General Election. , � ,. , election. Firstly, lets see what haens election. Firstly, lets see what happens in election. Firstly, lets see what happens in the election. Firstly, lets see what happens in the result election. Firstly, lets see what happens in the result and election. Firstly, lets see what happens in the result and lets| election. Firstly, lets see what. Happens in the result and lets see what the swing is at. Because i let you into a secret. Ive been on these programmes for 13 years now doing by Election Nights. That is what you say when you are in trouble. You know you are in trouble. You know you are in trouble. And he knows as well as i do because i have been in his position, that his colleagues will be not happy in the morning, regardless of, whoever narrowly wins or does not win, they will be looking at the swing and they will be comparing it to their own seat. I know it because i have done it as well. When we have bad results but thatis well. When we have bad results but that is a reality. Tory mps will be looking at these and they are going to be really, really nervous and it will cause turmoil on his side next week. Andrew westerman it also happens to be true. Irate week. Andrew westerman it also happens to be true. Week. Andrew westerman it also happens to be true. We are midterm and eole happens to be true. We are midterm and peeple are happens to be true. We are midterm and people are sceptical happens to be true. We are midterm and people are sceptical of and people are sceptical of politics. And people are sceptical of politics, they are not sold on keir starmer, politics, they are not sold on keir starmer, they want a reasonable conservative in our focus will be on delivering conservative in our focus will be on delivering the change that is required to take this country forward required to take this country forward. Whatever the result happens to be this forward. Whatever the result happens to be this evening. Let� s forward. Whatever the result happens to be this evening. To be this evening. Lets talk to sirjohn curtis to be this evening. Lets talk to sirjohn curtis about to be this evening. Lets talk to Sirjohn Curtis About TheSirjohn Curtis About The conversation you to have just been having about the impertinence of by elections, or not. What do they tell us about the state of the party. Can they mean that one party or another is on path to victory at a General Election and possibly coming next year . A General Election and possibly coming next year . John . They can rive us coming next year . John . They can give us an coming next year . John . They can give us an indication, coming next year . John . They can give us an indication, if coming next year . John . They can give us an indication, if we coming next year . John . They can l give us an indication, if we compare by elections with by elections as to the relative progress of the opposition and the difficulties of the government. I think it is already clearfrom the government. I think it is already clear from what we are hearing from the council that labour of either won or come close in these by elections but we will see a couple of by elections with very substantial swings from conservative to labour and that will indicate, i think, two things. One is that the lower swing in uxbridge now look like a mirage other than a pathway to conservative recovery and maybe the better guide to where we are at. Secondly it would mean that we now have three by elections in which we have three by elections in which we have gotten swings from conservative to labour that are towards the top of the top ten and the last time we were getting swings of this size on a regular basis was the 1992 1997 parliament which ended in a substantial conservative defeat. None of this says that the conservatives are bound to lose but i think what we probably can conclude at the end of tonight if what we hear from the account is correct and that is an important if, is that coupled with the evidence of the Opinion Polls and the difficulties that the conservatives have had in reducing labbs leads, is that at the moment at least labb are on course to win the next election and that does not necessarily mean that they will, there are still 12 months or more to go but at the moment, at least, it looks like an election for labour to lose and a very, very difficult situation form which the conservatives need to recover. When ou look conservatives need to recover. When you look at conservatives need to recover. When you look at byelections conservatives need to recover. When you look at byelections that conservatives need to recover. When you look at by elections that have happened, take the uxbridge and south rise one and you spoke about the swings that need to happen for labour to win. But even if they make a lot of ground and conservatives hold them, psychologically wont that be a boost for the conservatives . However bad it looks in terms of movement by labour, they will still receive a morale boost by holding these seats. Holding these seats. Absolutely. Given how low holding these seats. Absolutely. Given how low expectations holding these seats. Absolutely. Given how low expectations of i holding these seats. Absolutely. L given how low expectations of the Conservative Party are at the moment, and there is success for the conservat