Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20240622 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance June 22, 2024

An historic and agreement on Irans Nuclear program. The u. S. And other global powers will ease sanctions that have crippled irans economy. That is likely to lead to iran selling more oil, sending the price of oil down by the most in a week. It will have a 60 day review by congress. Israel says it will lobby american lawmakers to reject it. We will hear from president obama in about an hour. You can watch it on bloomberg tv at 7 00 eastern time. Greeces Prime Minister will not be able to count on his own coalition to support pension costs and tax hikes. Tsipras admits the austerity measures to Parliament Today will be set for tomorrow. Lawmakers must approve the legislation before talks on a new bailout. Paul krugman told Bloomberg Europe wanted to less screen to let greece no who is in charge. Paul krugman this is not about how much greece is going to repay, it will be about greece suffering. There is no escape. You do not get away from anything. And greece has made it clear that they are not willing to contemplate leaving the euro and had no bargaining power. It is actually a very sad day. It was a humiliation, kind of a ritual humiliation for greece. Vonnie that showdown with his own party may lead tsipras to reshuffle his cabinet. Wisconsin Governor Scott walker says voters need someone who will stand up for america. In a speech near milwaukee, he announced he is running for the republican president ial nomination. He plans on bringing his combative style to the white house. Scott walker my record shows that i know how to fight and win. Now more than ever America Needs a president who will fight and win for america. Vonnie walker may be best known for taking on Government Employee unions. He is the 16th governor to enter the president ial race. Bloomberg news is reporting that king wall unit group plans to offer 23 billion for micron technologies. Tshinghua. In baseball, cincinnati plus fraser won out slug edison of the dodgers in the final round. He won the home run derby. Were you guys watching . Tom a little bit. It is sort of boring, to be honest. What a great story though, from the great state of new jersey. Equities, bonds, currencies commodities. I could do in our data check. Let me go to oil. An accord in vienna oil prices lower. We have not reached 50 a barrel yet on american oil. The swiss franc weaker. On to the next screen. I have euro swisse there at the bottom 1. 0416. I want to go to the bloomberg terminal to talk about the u. S. Equity markets. Jpmorgan out with earnings. Brad hintz will join us to brief us on jpmorgan. I do not think we remember how we came out of this what a comeback we have seen in the blended index. Jpmorgan is doing better. Brendan we are talking about different kinds of companies. We are seeing a cyclicality of lending. Then now these are banks trying to figure out what they are. What is their trading desk look like . Tom adam parker joining us from Morgan Stanley. We will quiz him in a busy 7 00 hour. The president is scheduled to speak in the 7 00 hour. It has been a 12year standoff on uranium, and an agreement is made earlier this morning between diplomats, simply to bring persia back into the western community. Indira lakshmanan joins us. Also, Elliott Gotkine is in tel aviv. Indira, let me start with you on the basic idea of a moment of celebration. Can we say with certitude that there is a deal and a deal to bring back to congress in washington . Indira there is definitely a deal. That news broke from multiple delegations we have been covering in vienna for the last 19 days. So for sure there is a deal. We actually have a copy a text of the deal, and we know several important things. One is that september 15 is the target date by which iran is supposed to have taken all the steps laid out to limit its Nuclear Program and u. N. Monitors from the iaea need to verify those steps. At that point iran would be eligible for both sanctions will for bulk sanctions relief having Oil Sanctions route and having access to 150 billion in overseas frozen access in overseas frozen assets. It will not happen unless the iaea checks the box that they had done all the steps including questions about the possible military questions. Brendan looking at the actual text of the deal, given what you have heard from congress over the last six months, can you handicap the likelihood of this getting through congress . Indira i think it will be hard to get a majority in congress approving the deal. The Obama Administration and the president s top advisers will have a big job ahead of them going to congress and classifying why this is a good deal, putting a 10 year limit on enrichment by iranians. Tom that is able to statement by you have had no sleep. What are the consequences if Congress Says to the president and tehran we are not going to do this deal . Indira the president can veto that. I do not think congress has vetoproof majority to reject it. I do not think there are two thirds of the senate who will say no. Tom Indira Lakshmanan in vienna this morning. What time is it, 2 00 a. M. , that this came out . We need to go with there is a little bit of pushback. I speak lightly in respect for israel. They are not happy. Elliott gotkine is in tel aviv. Brendan benjamin netanyahu, right out of the gate, showing his disapproval. What leverage does he have right now over the actual deal . Elliott Prime Minister netanyahu is going to be going to congress and trying to ensure that congress does kill the deal. Netanyahu putting his opinions out there on twitter, as he is so happy to do saying that when you are willing to make a deal at any cost, this is the result. We can see it is an historic mistake. His deputy Prime Minister went a little bit further saying it was a historic capitulation to the axis of evil headed by iran. Brendan what this Public Opinion in israel look like on the terms . Elliott the country was very much divided between right and left but one of the few things many israelis agree upon whether on the opposition or supportive of netanyahus ruling coalition, is that they do not want iran to get a Nuclear Weapon. They know that iran has even recently worked with the supreme leader, talking about the destruction of israel and how that is an objective of iran and how it should be an objective of the world. Politicians of all hues here are against iran getting a Nuclear Weapon. Tom you mentioned the president will speak around 7 00 a. M. This morning, in about 50 minutes. He will need to speak to democrats as well as republicans in opposition. What does the president need to say to his party . Indira what he will say to the American People is that this is an historic accord that is preventing a rogue state crime preventing a rogue state from developing Nuclear Weapons. He will say that it needs that it will bring peace to the middle east that it is a win for the United States and the west not just for iran. Tom Indira Lakshmanan, thank you. Elliott gotkine as well. Lets go to our twitter question of the morning. Willie iran deal affect any more will the iran deal affect anything more than oil prices . We appreciate your responses. Coming up, brad hintz. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Vonnie the son of a Boston Police captain is accused of plotting an attack on a university. He was arrested july 4 in a small western massachusetts town. He is facing a weapons charge. He is mentally unstable and said that he wanted to fight for the islamic state. Bloomberg news reports cargo jets would be 55 million before the nasas new horizons spacecraft is getting the first closeup look of bhutto this morning. The unmanned probe for 7800 miles of close look of pluto this morning. I think we travel 3 billion miles everyday between the big inning at the end of the show. Brendan i am amazed. Just the idea that we might get anywhere close to it, i am amazed. We are going to talk about something much easier to conceive. Wells fargo, bac bank of america jp morgan. I will show you a chart inspired by chris whalen. Boring banking. This is mortgage debt total. It can drop sharply, but we saw a drop out of after 2008. Brad hintz is with us from nyu also once a banking analyst himself. Are we returning to boring banking . Brad hintz we are returning to boring banking in the sense that rates are going to rise and we are not getting great refinancing in the mortgage markets. You will see analysts and observers beginning to look at loan demand, that sort of thing which is traditional banking. In the midst of that, we still have an Investment Banking move that is going on. An awful lot of the focus of jpm will be on the corporate and investment sector. And of course when wells fargo comes out, it will be the traditional banking issues how is loan demand doing . What is going on in Retail Lending . And yes banking, we are going to be focusing on rising rates what is the effect of rising rates . Brendan how do you rate the relative importance . Mortgage lending up, year on year, almost 10 sequentially in the last year. How do you rate the importance of the Investment Bank versus the plain old boring lending bank . Tom brad hintz what will be the headlines . How the Investment Bank did this. If we think of actually the exposure, jpm although it is the leader of Investment Banking, it is a much more Diverse Group than goldman or Morgan Stanley or credit squeeze. Just a less expensive percentage of total revenue. Tom we know jp morgan makes . 24 on the dollar. This is a minting money combine. They take 94 billion down to 34 billion down to 23 billion. There is concern about revenue growth. They are trying to get back to 4 revenue growth. How will they do that . Brad very difficult to do. Global Financial Assets has to be the tom you have to go global to do this . Brad are you going to get u. S. Financial assets growing as rapidly as global . No, youre not. Maybe you can get to a 5 growth rate if you compare global assets to global gdp growth. Tom a 2 billion expense cost will american jobs come out at the expense of him growing globally . He says we have to cut back on the u. S. And cut jobs so we can build out of the nation . Brad he wants to avoid the capital charge. You see him tightening different parts of the business around because of it. Will it have some negative effects . I think most of his come back will affect things like hedge funds. He will be tightening his brokerage business. Tom the mail that i get that says the banks will tighten up in the u. S. So they can expand abroad you do not buy that thesis . Brad i see the banks tightening up on lending because they are worried about by doing that what you are seeing is growth of thirdparty lenders coming in. We do not know where that is all going to play out. The fed is on top of that one, but certainly that is one of the issues. It is becoming more issues it is becoming more difficult for a corporate treasurer to assume the bank is going to be there. Tom is jp morgan the best run bank in america . Brad pretty close. Goldman sachs is right there. Brendan coming up on bloomberg surveillance should jamie dimon benighted . You decide. Tom 94 billion down to the operating income of 34 billion and they take home 23 billion. Jamie dimon gets 24 billion of that 23 billion. I am kidding, it is a joke. Adam parker with us later from Morgan Stanley. At 7 00 as the president speaks, we will also look at Jpmorgan Earnings. Stay with us worldwide. Bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. There are about 18 beds 18 beds that feature Brendan Greeley today. 18 opeds that feature Brendan Greeley today. This is a superb sessay. From roger cohen. Tom i thought of you, brethren the moment i looked at this essay. Give us your perspective i thought of you, brendan, the moment i looked at this essay. Brendan the most important part of that piece is the question by robert cohen himself. Roger cohen himself. What is germans role internationally with itself . This is the problem, that germans are very reluctant to feel guilt about this. They have dealt more than any other nation with the concept of guilt. Even though it was german hot money that went to greece, french hot money that went to greece, they do not think that any of this was in any way their fault. They are unwilling to feel guilt about it, and if you cannot feel guilt, they cannot negotiate. They are not having a german discussion about the overall tom i did hear france versus germany. France was out front in trying to get reese some form of different deal. What you are reading over the last 48 hours, do you separate france out as newly separate from germany . Brendan i do but it still seems like germany gets what germany wants. If you look at the assets sale mechanism, that was a german suggestion on friday. It is in the german agreement on monday. Tom brad hintz is a professor at new york university. Part of this is who owns this paper . I am told the governments own the greek paper and the banks are removed. Do you buy the idea that on a derivative basis, if this thing falls apart, there has to be in effect on bnp sarah about on bnp paribas, socgen, Deutsche Bank . Brad we have seen the stress test on this, and presumably of the banks have gotten enough down. It is not going to be a major hit to the banking side. I do not think i would like to be invested in the banks is greece breaks out at this point, but that is a different issue. Tom have you been called by barclays to take over jenkins . Brad waiting for bobbie diamond to come back. Tom breaking news on Bloomberg Brad Hintz says diamond should return. Confusing. Brendan tsipras is having his own battle with the Greek Parliament and his own coalition. Can he hold onto it . We will find out. This is bloomberg surveillance on bloomberg television. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Oil 51. 14 a barrel. Here is vonnie quinn to tell you why. Vonnie a breakthrough that promises to end a 12year standoff that has crippled irans economy. In vienna, diplomats have agreed to a limit on irans their program. Economic sanctions on iran will gradually be lessened. That will allow iran to ramp up Energy Exports and that has Oil Prices Falling today. Congress will have 60 days to review the deal. Israel indicates it will lobby u. S. Lawmakers to reject this. We will hear from president obama in about a half hour from now. You can watch him on bloomberg tv beginning at 7 00 eastern time. The Prime Minister of greece says two days has two days to lobby for pension cuts and tax hikes. Alexis tsipras is submitting the measures to parliament. Lawmakers will vote tomorrow. Dozens say they will oppose the cuts. Tsipras has already run into opposition from his own cabinet. The Greek Parliament has to approve it before talks can start on a new bailout. In puerto rico, plans to restructure 72 billion in debt. Puerto rico has said it will come up with a debt Restructuring Plan by august 30. No word yet if the government will repay bonds issued less than three weeks from now. It is a recordbreaking performance for facebook. They became the Fastest Company to reach 215 billion in market cap. Facebook went public just over three years ago. The previous record holder was cool, which needed eight years 250 billion. Facebook trades at five times the average in the s p 500. Harper lees new book is on sale today. That is the novel she wrote before classic, to kill a mockingbird. The new book tells of a grownup and her aging father. Brendan we do not have a confirmation that Alexis Tsipras is considering stepping down that david is sitting in athens. Alexis tsipras passes reforms and then resigns. Is that just wishful german thinking . David it may very well be, but i have heard that as well. It is possible. He faces a lot of challenges coming back to Parliament Meeting with members of his own party. We will have to see what happens in the next couple hundred days. The deadline is very short. Brendan what does his own Coalition Look Like right now. What is series of what is syriza the party doing . David we saw the Deputy Foreign minister resigning last night. There are reports more could be on the way. It looks like it has the potential for splintering or changing in the next couple of days. Brendan you have been doing great reporting for the real economy of greece in the background has always been how much time we have left until the actual Greek Economy starts to fall apart. What is that timeline from your perspective . David that varies by sector. You mentioned the pharmacies i visited yesterday. That pharmacist says business is pretty careful, but he has three months of medicines available so he can stay in business that long. I think people are acutely aware of the fact that whatever happens over the next couple of days, they are looking at prospects that are pretty brief that are pretty bleak. Brendan no guarantee that these measures will be passed in parliament. Thanks, david. Tom lets turn

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