Abc news contributor and president of the Strategic Services firm a Strategic Services firm. Im pleased to have him back on the program. Thank you so much. Its great to be back with you. Charlie tell me what we have discovered here and what it might tell us and where it might lead us. Steve good news and bad news. The good news is that after 16 months, an airplane that disappeared, and the world could not fathom how a huge aircraft with all these people on board could disappear, we finally have what is a part from the airplane that will tell us yes, it crashed, and yes, those people are gone. On the other hand, we look at it and we say it is probably 4000 5000 miles away from where it hit. It had 16 months to drift around the currents in the indian ocean. They move counterclockwise. From the impact point where it hit, those currents go north and then they turn to the west and if they get by reunion they go south. It is just a big circle. It is what they call a garbage gyre. Everything collects. It is not pushed around. Somehow we got spit out and washed up, but it does not tell us where the wreckage is on the bottom of the ocean. It does not tell us where the black box is. It really doesnt help us understand better what happened to image 370. Mh charlie it could be we 370. Cannot find where the wreckage is. Steve right. What we are seeing is not going to be helpful in finding the airplane. The focus needs to stay back on that track that the a tsb has been looking at for months now. They are working through the winter months. This will bring some closure to the families. Beyond that, it is not going to tell us much that is useful to find out what happened. Cancharlie can they tell if this debris came from the missing 777 . Steve we are 99 there. There is a part number. It does not in identify exactly where this came from but it does say it came from a 777. We know it is white. We know that there are no missing 777s in the world. Only one has been missing. The powers of induction, we can say this is probably the piece. One of the things i noticed today, if you look at it, the barnacles are all over it. That would suggest it was submerged at some depth. So if you say, why didnt we see that when we had all of these airplanes after the aircraft went missing . Why didnt we see at . Sometimes when aircraft hit the water, they break into pieces or some float on the surface. Some get waterlogged and they will float somewhere between two inches and six feet below. That is what carbon fiber does as we know with airplanes that have crashed and use that modern material. It would suggest this was floating somewhere just below the surface and got spit out and washed up on to the beach. Charlie this investigation had been ongoing. I know youve had conversations with the people involved in that process. Where is the Investigation Pre the discovery of the debris . Steve i have been down to talk to the australian investigators three times. In the past six months. It is a really impressive crew. They have everything you could ask for. They have help from other countries, boeing is helping the french are helping. They have everything they need. They have a professional crew. I played to stump the stars with them over again. I said off the record, let me try to stump you. I was unable to. Im confident in what they are doing. The science. If you remember the last time, there was an arc, the pings. Remember the pings from the satellite . There was a last ping they think was the paying ping when the aircraft lost electrical power. If you have a transistor radio and it runs out of batteries that is the sort of last ping they heard. That gives them a good idea where that airplane is. Somewhere along the arc, and a 60,000 square kilometer arc they knew exactly how much gas this airplane had at the top of its climate and they know the track, so they have a pretty good idea of where it came down. Here is the interesting thing over the time i have met with the australians. When i first met with them, they were like, no way is this going to escape us. We are going to find this airplane. The last time i met with them, they were nervous. They have looked at 50,000 kilometers out of 60000 and have expanded out to 120,000 because they still have not found it. They have extended the time they are going to be looking for the airplane to october. It is winter in the southern indian ocean, so the weather is difficult. They are nervous they have not found it. That said, i said between you and me, and off the record, we are having a beer, what do you think . They said, 100 were going to find this. As we go along, they have two scenarios. The first one that they modeled as a scenario where you are at altitude. Everybody is unconscious. The airplane flies along. It runs out of gas. When it runs out of gas, it runs out of gas one engine at a time. Youre going to get asymmetric thrust. Supposedly, you would think the autopilot is on. It will try to correct, but you are going get this motion where the airplane is rolling around until the other engine flames out. It will do these various stalls sort of like a falling leaf into the water. In that scenario, they have a good idea of where the area of the airplane might be. That is if everybody was asleep. The thing that is disturbing today is that the flapper run is fully intact. If the airplane were going to fly into the water at a steep angle, only if the airplane hit the water at a slow speed. The very tip of the flapper run looks like it has been shaved off maybe by hitting the water. On that airplane, if somebody tried to to land that airplane after running out of gas, that is a chilling idea to think there was somebody alive in the cockpit flying the airplane after it had run out of gas. Charlie just to make sure i am where your head is it is a chilling idea because . Steve everybody believes this is a murderersuicide. Nobody thinks it was mechanical. A lot of people believe it flew out to sea. He pointed it at the south pole. He dumped the cabin pressure. Everybody in the back dies of the cold and they just fly off into oblivion. Charlie ah. Steve so if they did not and they tried to land the airplane, there may have been people alive when they hit water. Charlie do the people you talk to with the metaphor of you and i having a beer at the bar, what is it they believe . Steve nobody knows enough to believe anything. They can pick up a couple scenarios. Think of a couple of scenarios. The one scenario that makes them uncomfortable is the second scenario where somebody is conscious. As i said, you can backtrack from where you know the airplane was when it was leveled off. You have an idea of where it might have run out of gas. You can draw a circle around that. If somebody was at the controls, they could have flown the airplane in any direction. We are trying to look to look for consistency so we can narrow the area for the plane. If they were flying it and heading toward the south pole and decided to go off to the right, now you opened up a really big search area. The airplane can glide about 125 miles after running out of gas. Now after you have gone to the trouble to narrow and focus your search area, in this wild, open ocean, if somebody did something at the end that was unpredictable, you have made it difficult. If it was murdersuicide somebody would think, im going to make it extra hard at the end and do something unpredictable. Charlie we talk murder suicide we are talking about one of the passengers murdering the other one of the pilots murdering the other and committing suicide. Steve yes. Charlie not somebody coming in. Steve it is possible. There are some convoluted ideas about how that would happen. I dont think so. There are too many things. You remember when the airplane was flying north, when they were in between the vietnamese and Malaysian Air defense zones they were in that gap. You had to be a pilot to know you were in that radar gap. To type wave points and and have the airplane fly to know where the transponder switch was, this also just somebody who was highly trained. Charlie is this approaching an Amelia Earhart mystery . Steve i think it is worse. Million where heart a millionaire heart was a pioneer doing something Amelia Earhart was doing something everyone knew was dangerous. It was a tragedy. This was a murderer. 200 some odd People Killed by somebody who had some sick which to take them to his own end. It is chilling. There was an act of evil. There were multiple acts of evil perpetrated. Everybody flies. Everybody understands how safe it is. And then you get Something Like this. Boy, it shows you. Charlie and your best guess . As to whether they will find something or not . Steve im optimistic. Im going to give it 70 . I think that we have between now and october. The weather will start Getting Better in the southern indian ocean. I think they have the technique, the most sophisticated kinds of technologies available, and they are doing what everybody thinks they should be doing. Theyve had this peerreviewed. They have every scientist in the the world looking at it and refining it. If we dont find it, i will be shocked. Charlie they shipped the debris back to paris because it was a French Island . Steve correct. The french are quite good in accident investigations. I would be worried if they shipped it to malaysia or some country that was not as capable of or has demonstrated that capability. Charlie the experience and equipment. Steve correct. Charlie thank you so much. It is a pleasure. My thanks to abc news as well. We will be right back. Stay with us. Charlie we continue with a look at the death of the taliban leader mullah omar, forced from power by a Usled Coalition in 2001 and has been considered the ghosts leader of the group. The taliban released a Statement Today saying he died of illness. It apologized for any mistakes omar made during his role of afghanistan. Rule of afghanistan. The Afghan Government suggests that he died two years ago in pakistan. Reports of his death have cast uncertainty over the fate of peace talks taking place between the taliban and afghanistan. Joining me from washington matthew rosenberg. He is the National Security reporter for the new york times. Also peter bergen, an analyst. I am pleased to have them. Peter, let me begin with this question. Why would they keep it quiet that he died . How long do you think he has been dead . Peter answering the second question first, that is still pretty unclear. We have the Afghan Government saying he died in 2013. Like a lot of things, that may not be completely correct. Why did they keep her secret keep it secret . There is no one else that can replace him. If you think about the claim, he said he was commander of the faithful. This is not saying that i am just head of the taliban, this is the claim that i am the leader of all muslims everywhere. It is a really invoked religious title that the Prophet Muhammad and his successors were the first commanders of the faithful. There is nobody in the second tier of the taliban who could really claim that title. We will see some sort of succession struggle probably. Some people have mentioned his son might try to take over. There are a couple of other contenders who are senior taliban leaders. But none of them have the stature of mullah omar. Charlie does this mean people have been making decisions in his name with the imprimatur of his reputation and spirituality . Peter i think that is true. We have already seen the taliban is hardly a unified movement. There are three big parts of it , the afghan, pakistan, india county, and the likely result of mullah omars departure have confirmed these groups may go their separate ways. Others may split off and be more inclined to align with isis. We have seen that with small taliban groups in afghanistan and pakistan. Who is the only other commander of the faithful . The head of isis. This is really an opportunity for isis. Charlie matthew, what would you add to that . Matthew one person seems to have been giving orders for the taliban for the last two. Beers. Guatemala months or. If he died, if mullah omar died in 2013, he spent two years deceiving his colleagues saying i have been talking to our leader. Apparently there was a lot of disaffection with him. That really does set up for a pretty serious power struggle. He apparently wants to take over. That makes it so much harder to make peace if you have all these internal factions vying for power. Charlie but i assume he is obviously number two, but it is said that one of the contenders. If not likely, the most likely. Is the other his son . Matthew his son is one of them. There are a few others that are around. There was a former military commander who once had been a prisoner in guantanamo bay. The other problem with the taliban, it is always hard to tell what is going on inside. This is a group of peasant clerics, many of whom have known each other for years. There are not a lot of outsiders in the inner circle. It is difficult for western intelligence agencies and even Afghan Intelligence agencies to really get inside the leadership and figure out what is going on. They get pieces from the outside, but not inside. Charlie i asked people after charlie i asked people after Osama Bin Laden was killed, why not mullah omar . You must know where he is. They would always say we think he is here, but we dont really know. And then i would say, would you go get him and they would say of course. Peter yeah, it says a lot about our intelligence agencies funded to the tune of 80 billion a year, like the tune of a trillion dollars plus. It has come as a surprise that mullah omar, if these reports are true, died two years ago. He had 10 million on his head. One of the most wanted men in the National Security arena. It goes to what matthew was saying. This is an opaque movement. I went back, when was the last time we could actually have a definitive proof of life from mullah omar . It looks like the last audiotape came in around 2005. Since then, he has released written communications once a year. There was very little evidence that he was alive even when he was alive. The most basic facts have not been clarified. We have a biography saying he was born in 1960, but that wasnt very clear at all. It gets to this question of, negotiating with this opaque movement, their leader dies, what happens next . It will be complicated. On the plus side, if the Movement Starts splitting, you are able to negotiate with the moderate elements. On the negative side there is no one figure who can bring them together and do a deal. That person was mullah omar. It is unlikely his successor will have the same ability to put his in premodern ability to make peace negotiations. Charlie do we know he wanted a deal, or do we assume so because they would not have done it if not . Peter i would be curious to see what matthew says. I cant believe they did not start negotiating some sort of deal without him. If you think about it, the negotiations between the taliban and the United States and the taliban and Afghan Government, this has been going on for many years. It long preceded the beau bergdel deal. It did not get very far when Bowe Bergdahl was released thickly, but it did not just start in the last six months. This is a process that has been ongoing many years. I cant believe mullah omar would not have sanctioned it. Charlie matthew . Matthew it seems he did. If you look at it, the chief negotiator had been his secretary. That was 2012 when it started. The process stalled quickly. Which goes to assume mullah omar was dissatisfied with how it went and americans were negotiating in bad faith. Mullah omar, under his leadership, was adamant about not negotiating with cap with the Afghan Government. Now they are. Is that something most taliban support . We dont know. Now that he is known to the known to be dead, will they support further negotiations with the Afghan Government . We dont know. There were talks that have been postponed. That raises questions. Under what circumstances will the talk and to whom will they talk . Charlie what about their success on the ground in afghanistan today . Matthew the one thing is they have done so well in the last year or two that perhaps this has been a blessing for them. They really have made impressive gains in northern afghanistan and parts of egypt and southern afghanistan, they have given the Afghan Military an incredible amount of trouble. The Afghan Military has struggled mightily to keep up with them. That is frightening as well. The movement that was leaderless where people were grousing about his absence, will it fall apart or continue to press forward . If it does continue to press forward, that should help to keep people on board, which could be problematic. Charlie peter, i found it interesting that in the notes of what we have learned, the family said we apologize for whatever mistakes we made to the state of afghanistan and to the taliban. It is an interesting thing to do. Although many people think of things like that. They dont really say them. Peter im not an expert on his molecule into islamic the ologies but islamic theolog y, but i know that when you die you are supposed to pay off all your debts. You are supposed to make amends to people. It is part of the act of dying. Maybe this was their way of doing it. It is a puzzling statement. Mullah omar made a lot of mistakes. He drove afghanistan, the world bank stopped measuring afghanistans Economic Indicators under the taliban because there were none. The population of kabul is about 3. 5 or 4 million people. They came in, a moment of a honeymoon, but they really took away almost every aspect of life that most people enjoy. The economy dematerialized. Yes, mullah omar had reasons to be sorry. Charlie and what they did for women and culture. Two examples. Peter they provided something of a model for isis. You think about the destruction of the buddha, a huge story in 2001 they destroyed the major tourist attraction. That is similar to what we have seen isis do in museums in mosul and other sites in iraq and syria that they have destroyed. And the women, the same playbook. Isis is more brutal. But the taliban is the most