Benjamin netanyahu no matter how good your intelligence is, no one can credibly make such a claim. How can you block what you do not know . Iran can keep the deal or cheat on the deal. Either way, it gives a clear path to iran to get the bomb today or hundreds of moms tomorrow. Olivia you can see the president how speech live on Bloomberg Television at 11 20 Kentucky Republican voters will not start picking their president ial nominee for nearly six months. But the field of candidates is already being split into front runners and alsorans. Rick perry and six other candidates have been pushed into an earlier event. Donald trump will be front and center when the cameras come on. He warmed up for the debate on bloombergs with all due respect by slamming his closest rival, jeb bush. Donald trump when bush raises several hundred Million Dollars and then the money is sitting in there and he puts his best friend in charge or somebody close to him, and they never talk, if anybody believes they never talk, it is a joke. Olivia disney shares are down more than 6. 5 premarket this morning after the Company Posted thirdquarter sales yesterday that fell short of analyst estimates. Disney had been the dows strongest stock this year. Disney is cutting its forecast for cable television. The companys biggest business espn is losing subscribers because of cord cutting. And a volume explosion for apple. More than 120 million shares of apple were trading tuesday. Apple shares entered a correction this week, meaning they were down more than 10 . Yesterday they fell for the 10th time in 11 days. The stock has fallen 12 in that stretch. A work for netflix will not have worry about rushing back to the office. New parents who work for netflix will not have to worry about rushing back to the office. Google, for its part, gives up to 18 weeks. Tom we go to surveillance parental leave expert Brendan Greeley. Brendan why did this revolution not happen five years ago . Are you making a noise . One way to get workforce participation up is to give women more reasons to remain in the workforce. One reason to do that one way to do that is not to penalize them for maternity leave. Tom the third kid, you are like, when can i come back . That is a reality. Brendan i used my paternity leave to clean the garage. Tom i was told i was useless and way beyond the maternity era. Lets get a data check. Equities bonds marking down the euro call to 1. 05. Off yellen and carney. Onto to the next screen, and i want to set the tone for surveillance today. Gold south. Brazil real is just one indicator of what this is doing away from strong dollar. Brendan if you search on the terminal for stories with the word lockhart in them Dennis Lockhart speaking yesterday Australian Dollar rises, gold falls the whole world shifted when he spoke. Tom this is a chart i have done for years. This is tradeweighted broad dollar. This is china. Here is a rubin dollar, and here is the latest dollar move. All you need to know in logarithmic august is this is the move of the rubin dollar. You can bring this right over and it shows you how much we have done so far of the socalled strong dollar. Brendan you talked about it is not just a dollar story, it is all of the various crosscurrents. Does this story shifts two years from now when mario draghi make the difference . Olivia that is the challenge for janet yellen. This is not transitory. Tom right now it is a dollar story. Jon ferro is in london. A strong sterling as well. This is about yellen and carney. What is the distinction between those two central bankers . Jon the only major two Central Banks on the planet thinking about hiking rates. Very different in terms of action. The market is pricing with hikes at the bank of england in may. Tom when you look at the dollar weakness, i look at athens rolling over again today. What is the nearest follow on is it that gold is going south or the equity markets in europe . Jon i look to europe as an earnings story, but there is certainly a tailwind story in the dax as well. You see the spillover from the fx market. I am not looking at eurodollar, i am looking at euro sterling. That could be a problem. Brendan Dennis Lockhart of the atlanta fed said it does not see any reason yet to wait past september. Did a clacks on sound in the city of london . Did everyone at once put down their gin and tonics . How important are those metrics . Jon i think they are very important. We needed more improvement in the labor market. For the Dennis Lockharts of the world, it is about moving in september. It is about significant deterioration. How many friends does Dennis Lockhart have at the fomc . Given Janet Yellens record is janet yellen one of his friends . Tom jonathan ferro, thank you so much. We do see this new Dollar Strength tied to the fed, but much more it is about real economic effects. Sir Martin Sorrell travels the world as the ceo, the founder of wpp. He lives the reality of ever weaker currency. It is sort of like marco polo. Martin the english explorer i cannot think of one. Brendan john smith. Tom john cabot was way underrated. What is the impact of the stronger dollar and these weaker currencies, country to country . Martin companies were reporting in u. S. Dollars or u. K. Sterling. Part of disneys reporting worthy issues due to currency. Most of the major multinationals are under heavy pressure. To come back to the Interest Rate increases from what i see, things are tightening. If you look at the forecast for worldwide gdp this year, the inflation component is put down quite sharply. Earlier in the year we were looking for 5, 5. 5 nominal. Tom is it a global recession . Martin it is not a global recession, it is global tightening. On both sides of the atlantic people are talking about raising Interest Rates, and that obviously has an impact on the currencies and forces them stronger. The euro will stay week because of the the euro will stay weak because of the grexit issues. All of that created uncertainty around the euro. I see the world tightening. I do not see the world easing. Interest rates from a very low position, we have to be frank about it will it make much difference if it goes up a quarter or a half a point at these levels . For our debt profile, because we have the refunding we have been refunding all of our debt we have been saying this tom, for years. Last year Revenue Growth was up threeplus in real terms. The answer is, it is a new mediocre. We have been saying that for years. It is not flatlining. Brendan i have been doing my homework. We are looking at a list of great english explorers and we have to look at our metaphor henry hutchinson, an extraordinary navigator. Martin the hms beagle. Brendan are we looking at a Robert Falcon scott . Martin last time we checked, we did not have an agency in the north. Stick with the beagle. Tom what is the faulty towers joke . The thick book of great english lovers yet that we are moving on to china. You said that you see the chinese growing at 4 , 4. 5 . Martin the question is whether 7, 7. 5 is sustainable. Given that the government is looking for a Health Care Safety net and Building Services businesses and they want quality growth not quantum. I do not think it is totally surprising, given where the world is. We are talking about real growth at 3, 3. 5 . Most major multinationals are facing a World Economy which the people i talked to, whether it be i was in asia last week, in malaysia with the ioc, and the people there generally the people running countries are finding things generally tightening. They are not getting better. They are either flatlining or tightening. And inflation is lower, and therefore Pricing Power is lower. That is why you see the focus on cost. Most people have not missed the top line but that is because they have brought down expectations about where they were going to be hitherto. Olivia joining 21st, after the bell today, and we will continue this conversation with sir Martin Sorrell after the break. It is a megamedia earnings day. Then swing born about what we should expect from time warner cbs time warner, cbs, and 21st century fox. This is bloomberg surveillance , on Bloomberg Television, shin on your tablet, your phone, and bloomberg. Com. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Gold is down six dollars this morning. We have Olivia Sterns with us with top headlines. Olivia neiman markets want Neiman Marcus wants to go public. Neiman plans to use the ipo proceeds to repay debt. Its revenues last year totaled 4. 8 billion. Societe generale says its quarter profits were highest since 2007. Kelloggs thousand to stop using artificial colors and flavors to cereals and snack bars within the next three years. The company is following an industry trend. Breakfast cereal sales are slumping as more consumers shy away from processed foods. Tom it is amazing how it has changed. Olivia i cannot figure out what lucky charms look like without pigment. 21st century fox is reporting its secondquarter results after the bell, as does cbs. Aand we will hear from time warner. Then morgan joins us on the set. You argue that the sector might be overvalued, yet 21st century is your topic. Why that is your top pick. 21st century is your top pick. Why . Ben we expect them to deliver about seven on ebit. American idol has clearly been a miss. When you step back from those two pieces of the puzzle, the rest of the growth story has been quite strong. International Cable Networks in india paid off nicely. Fox sports 1 is doing well, continues to ramp, and they have been buying back stock. We think they get past the currency headwind. For fiscal 17, we think that accelerates into the teens, which would make fox the Fastest Growing among large cap media. Olivia what is the one thing you want to hear from James Murdoch . Ben at times that can hurt shares. I think it is a misconception, but the markets focus on how is james going to invest in this business, that may or may not be different. Martin a really important point when you have no separation between ownership and control, companies do better. I think that is really the issue. They think longterm, they think structurally about the business in much deeper ways. Tom but will there be a generational change at fox . Looking at the script, will you see more short termism at fox. Thenben i dont think so. Tom here is my observation. I cannot stand sir Martin Sorrells world. I cannot stand commercials on tv. Martin that is not my world. Tom you are the pro. What does tv need to do to keep sir martin happy and keep our houses happy . Martin it does not depend on network television. Then i am not sure there is a solution or a silver will it or a silver bullet. Incumbents that make a lot of money the Cable Network business tom they do not want to change. Then it is not that thenben it is not that they do not want to change. Tom the miracle we have seen in the last six years, including martin you are not going to get away with this, tom. If you look at the companies that you follow, we have altered our approach in two weight in two ways geographically and technically. It is over the top model. Tom has the persistency of class flow changed of cash flow changed . Ben on the tv side, the issue has happened slowly. It will be difficult to sustain the margin. Olivia and does he take another run at time warner . Ben swinburne covers media for morgan stanley. Tom coming up in the next hour, he was way out front on the derivative collapse in 2005 2006 2007, from asia. David golden will join us on set. His scathing note on what Chinese Government in beijing must do. Stay with us with sir Martin Sorrell worldwide. This is bloomberg surveillance. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. A big, big political debate tomorrow. Here is Brendan Greeley. Brendan yesterday donald trump spoke on all due respect. I listened live and i was stunned because for the first time i felt like i was listening to a conversation where a politician was coming up with answers to questions in real time, like he was thinking about that. He said the fed can create asset bubbles. Here is what he said about Campaign Finance reform. Donald trump i do advocate transparency, and i think the concept of a lot of money is ok, but you have to know where the money is coming from, who is putting it up, and possibly it will not change. Therefore who will control that particular politician or candidate . Brendan that is the moment my head exploded because i found myself thinking it kind of makes sense, what donald trump just said. Sir Martin Sorrell is just with us. Martin it does not mean Everything Else makes sense. Brendan lets talk about his brand, something you deeply understand. What is it, and why is it more successful than anyone predicted it would be . Martin he is plain speaking. He is speaking at a moment where americans are trouble at a time when things are not happening in washington. He does not surround himself with vast revenues. He speaks his mind, is very much plain speaking. The issue and i am a foreigner commenting on domestic politics is how long this phenomenon will last . Does it have legs . He does not have the resources quite right. I agree with him on Campaign Finance. The British Election all parties spent 25 Million Pounds in total 35 million, 40 million. In comparison what we are going to see in terms of Campaign Finance he is rambunctious. He speaks his mind. He is very much to the point. He does not flimflam. That appeals to the voter. But does he have coherent policies . Can he handle Foreign Affairs . Brendan there is one thing you just said that is absolutely wrong. We love to be talked down to buy british people about american politics. Martin talked down to . Brendan s are and i will have it out after the break. Let us know bsurveillance why trump is doing so well. Good morning. Tom good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Lets get to our top headlines with Olivia Sterns. Olivia president obama will try to sell the new cleared agreement the Nuclear Agreement today. He met yesterday with jewish leaders who fear the deal will not stop iran from Building Nuclear weapons. You can see the speech live this morning on bloomberg tv starting at 11 20 eastern time. We will get a preview in a few minutes right here on surveillance. Shares were down 5 premarket for disney. But there is another star wars flick in the pipeline. We are making no estimates in terms of what we believe the film will do. We have probably the most valuable franchise that ever existed. Success will reverberate throughout the company. We want to be careful that the market does not get too far ahead of itself. Olivia disney also cut cable tv forecasts, mostly because espn is losing subscribers. Stocks in greece fell for a Third Straight day down nearly 3 now, but the dropoff is not nearly as deep as it was monday when the market was hit with its worst selloff in nearly three decades. That was the first day of trading after the fiveweek shutdown. Berkshire hathaway traded near record highs at the start of Warren Buffetts 50th year at the helm. Eight years later, there is less to celebrate. Shares have slumped 5 . Berkshire shares through 2013 averaged gains that more than doubled. Tom i can see the headline Warren Buffett fails. 5 . Congress comes back i believe back in september. The president will speak this morning. He will start a pitch on why congress should move forward on the iran transaction. Margaret is at Bloomberg Politics and has perspective on what we will hear this morning. What is the sowhat this morning, margaret . Margaret the sowhat is that president obama will say that this is the most controversial the most tom what is the timeline for the president . Is this the most important speech of his administration, or is it a warm up for him to get to september 8 . Margaret midseptember is a magical day because congress is going home for the august recess, the president s getting ready to go to Marthas Vineyard for vacation, and he does not want to blow it. He would Like Congress to not vote to disapprove of this, but even if they do, he can veto that and he can probably block an override. That is plan b. His plan a is for none of that to happen. What he is trying to do is preemptively prevent the summer from getting away from him for something turning terribly bad when everybody goes home. Brendan it is beginning to feel like a political campaign. What is the value of a public speech if he is trying to win over members of congress over the short term . Margaret it is short of it is sort of the other is a longterm legacy bit. He is trying to position himself somewhere along the spectrum of jfk and Ronald Reagan in terms of engagement with the soviets, in a sort of cold war effort to contain the nuclear threat, and this is obamas modern version of that. He wants to set the narrative and make the de