Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open 20

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets European Open December 5, 2017

Futures for tech. Lamborghini rolls out a luxury suv. We will speak to the companys ceo at 9 00 a. M. U. K. Time. Looking forward to that. Matt absolutely. I am looking forward to seeing how we open up this morning because of that tax news out of the u. S. It will be interesting to see how this rotation continues in europe. We have some chipmakers. In finney germany and the Big Industrial Technology Companies across the continent. Take a look at what we see in the futures, positive indications with the exception of the cac 40. There is a catalonian issue we will talk about as well. Although very little change in those Index Futures on the dax Index Futures. A gain of 1 . Take a look at treasuries. Not a lot of movement. The perception of a dip in yields on friday. We have been trading pretty sideways at 2. 388. 2. 4 percent but not going much above that level. Guy lets take a look at the gmm and show you what it is showing us at the moment. And want to focus on what is happening over here. The british pound is coming under new pressure down by. 41 . We saw a lot of volatility yesterday. The yen is showing signs of weakness. The other thing is what is happening with iron ore. We will be talking about mining later in the program. Iron ore fdle coming unstuck. Lets get a bloomberg first word news update. Heres juliette saly. Handing him a major victory. The court will uphold the restrictions. The president will be able to b from sixtrict entries mostly muslim countries. It marks the first time the Supreme Court has let restrictions take full effect. The aussie has climbed to a threeweek ive after the bank kept its Interest Rate at a record low. It expects inflation to quicken. At the same time retail sales [inaudible] European Finance ministers meet today. According to the latest draft of proposals obtained by bloomberg the list includes south korea, panama, tunisia, and the uae as barbados, account, the marshall islands, palau, and st. Lucia. Guy we seem to be having technical difficulty when it comes to what is happening with the audio. Lets move on. A near miss for the uks brexit negotiations. Prime minister theresa may came close to a deal during a meeting with the eu president. Anotiations took embarrassing turn after they were directed by a phone call. That conversation was regarding [inaudible] which props up the government in london. Nejra. Ring in it happened within those crucial minutes . It was a crucial few minutes. The lunch started at 1 30 p. M. And he for there was a lot of anticipation there could be a breakthrough. We were told that the eus chief brexit negotiator had spoken to came out one of them and said a breakthrough is imminent. The pound rose on that and there was a flurry of excitement among the u. K. Press in brussels as that lunch meeting began. And gone went on longer than expected. Theresa may missed a meeting scheduled for 4 p. M. With donald tusk. She put a positive the lunch and went out to make a call to arlene foster. The come out after and make a twominute statement, do not take questions from the press and say we were not able to reach a complete agreement today. They did not give details on what went wrong but irish Prime Minister the irish Prime Minister said dublin and the u. K. Came to an agreement on the issue of the irish border and it unraveled during that lunch meeting. See theuld we still talks move on to trade before the end of the year or is that a pipe dream gone up in smoke here . An optimisticruck hopeful tone during their statement. Juncker said this is the beginning of the final phase. They said they will continue talking this week and he was hopeful they could make a breakthrough by that crucial december 14 eu Leaders Summit which is when the new wants is the talks to move from divorce to trade. U. K. That dublin and the came to this agreement, it is going to look like a concession Theresa Mayif now does give into the dups demands. It is difficult for dublin. Therefore it will be for the u. K. As well. That is one thing to bear in mind. The irish Prime Ministers said if we do not get a breakthrough in december, perhaps we can call an emergency summit in january. Some talk of it spilling over into next year. A person familiar told bloomberg that while the irish border was a difficult issue during the lunch, there was still also the stumbling block of the European Court of justice. There seem to be many reasons why these talks may not move in in december. And noopeful that doubt that theresa may has a lot to achieve in a few days. A surprise in brussels this did not happen . Is there an expectation that it would . Choreography pointed to it being done. What is the feeling on that side about what went wrong and is it surprising . I have no doubt that probably a lot of emotions are running in brussels, perhaps not just surprise but a little bit of embarrassment around what happened. It is interesting that you point out what the feeling was here. Ps spoke to reporters before theresa may and juncker went into this lunch. Who said theyers were cautiously optimistic about this lunch going ahead. The u. K. From the beginning did push back on this optimism of a breakthrough at that lunch meeting. It kept saying it was not a deadline, it was a staging post till december. Perhaps the u. K. Had a sense that something might go wrong at the 11th hour where is brussels was a little bit optimistic. The breakthrough did not happen. Matt thank you. Some sweetnd getting interviews for us. Thanks for that. Euro area finance ministers have theen Mario Centeno to had euro group. The incoming president has his job cut out as the blocks strive to complete its Banking Union and the to narrow the economic gap. States of the eurozone are growing above 1. 5 for the first time in many years. Else have a balanced budget overall. And we have the ability to make the euro area grow a little ifter and for a longer time we implement the reforms needed. We have a long debate ahead of us. Thes important to note that time window that we have following the electoral cycle that several countries have , we need to take advantage of that. Reforms nt a implement reforms. Want toou have said you get consensus within the eurozone and that would be part of your role but what do you prioritize, do you prioritize a common budget, do you prioritize stabilitythe mechanism to be more like the imf . Of course being the chair of be theo group i have to generator of consensus. So my opinion is important but i am more of a listener now. I am going to my opinion. I can translate what has been going on in the euro group in the last couple of months. Union, the issues in the Financial Sector, the Risk Reduction and then risksharing measures which i prefer to call better Risk Management would be in the area and certainly with the issues they raised on the stability mechanism to strengthen it, to allow it also to respond to other different needs in the eurozone. These are the main priorities. And we have a discussion on the budget. We have a discussion on other will make the eurozone the largest Single Market in the world. Much more stronger economy in the future. Interesting interview. The tech selloff continues. U. S. Tax reform sent tech stocks tumbling but wheres the money going . We will discuss that next. The market open is 18 minutes away. This is bloomberg. Matt welcome back to bloomberg markets, the european open. The tech selloff in the u. S. Continues through asia after the Senate Tax Plan was seen hitting some road bumps. Chip companies were some of the worst hit with the s p 500 Semiconductor Index down by five out of the last six days because of concern about the alternative minimum tax. Where is that money moving to that is leaving the tech stocks . The reason i ask is we called this a rotation. It seems more like a selloff. ,f that money is going back in what are investors buying . Mark your observation is fair. There are two different economics. There is a rotation out of stick out of tech stocks or Growth Stocks and we are seeing a rotation. There was after value stocks underperformed and it got a surge yesterday as we are seeing. Overall we are seeing money, out of u. S. Stock market, it did not trade great yesterday and there is more negativity that tax reform spurred the economy so much. After the bill passed in the house that week as well, u. S. Stocks surged and finished the week lower. We are seeing a repeat here this week. Could the selloff accelerate into the weekend . When do we start worrying about the debt ceiling . Mark it will not necessarily accelerate but volatility will remain high. Like we will fudge the deadline. They are talking about rolling it up to the 30th of december. It does not seem to be a great time to start paying people. We are days way from a partial shutdown of the u. S. Government. Have not made much progress on a longterm solution because they have been distracted on the tax bill. Also a partisan divide which has grown wider given the way that the republicans passed the tax reform through the senate. The debt ceiling will become more of an issue at a time when volatility is declining. I do not think we will see Downside Movement but the rest of this year will be volatility with equities and not great risk reward. Overnight in seen stocks, saw commodity oil, Energy Stocks all come down. Over the last week, iron and steel have been performing well in asia. Where do you see commodities right now and the that produce the underlying commodities reacting . Mark the commodity story for next year depends around china. As you go, i am bullish on the china outlook, the growth slowdown if you call it a slowdown given we still have growth above 6 which is phenomenal, that growth trajectory has been managed. Well. There is a little bit of turmoil around the local assets but onrall, the knock on effects the regional economy has not been two major. That is why the outlook generally looks good for commodities. There are some Amazing Stories and a little bit in the shortterm, comedies are being weighed in. You have the by the river sell around opec and oil is coming off from there. It will weigh on the region. Oil energy cost is the biggest expense when extracting and transporting any other commodity like metals. How do i position myself around the pound, what are we expecting from the pound . It is beginning to move higher. It is nowhere near what it was around the election and nowhere the what it was around brexit vote. That is the oneyear chart but i will pull and the brexit and you can see what the story looks like and where we are. What can i expect over the next 24 hours, how will the pound be moving, do you think . Mark we can see a rise in volatility over the next week. Near want to get any that brexit volatility which is extreme because the result was not expected. This could go to the wire about whether the u. K. Will have made progress. The eu wanted to say that progress we made but the irish border situation is hard to do with. The two red lines are polar opposites. The whole point of the Democratic Unionist Party is to emphasize the border between ireland and the republic is greater than the border between ireland and the u. K. They do not want that kind of quarter in the irish [inaudible] and they cannot accept the border between the republican Northern Ireland. There is enough political will but i can see it going to the last moment. We will get some bleed through of stories next week which will send sterling in either direction. Who knows where it ends up but there will be a lot more volatility next week. I love to use this function on the bloomberg, whis go. We will get the nonfarm payroll numbers on friday. Play yourself and see how you do against other bloomberg clients guessing. What are you looking at for this number, what are you looking out for surveys at the yearend . Are running this markets live survey. We just opened this yesterday. We are starting to track the early consensus coming to starting to come in. For most assets people are forecasting they will finish where we are now. The highest consensus seems to be that yields will move higher but the bund and treasury yields are seeing forecasts higher than we are today and the other one is the nikkei much higher. Even bitcoin, people are not broadcast forecasting much volatility for next year. Nothing is strange when it comes to bitcoin. No volatility would be the strangest thing i could imagine. Mark cudmore, bloomberg mliv strategist, follow his Teams Insights on mliv and check out their survey, when you type that in you see the asset they are looking at come upon the launch page. We are minutes away from the open. Next we will take a look at your stocks to watch including cinema cineworld announcing its purchase of regal. The open eight minutes away. Matt welcome back to bloomberg markets, the european open. Lets get a couple of the issues you should be watching. Deutsche bank is one. After the u. S. Special prosecutor Robert Mueller said he wants to look into the lenders data on its relationship with president donald trump, that according to a person briefed on the matter who declined to be identified. He has issued a subpoena to Deutsche Bank. It was received several weeks ago according to this person. To loansn relation that trump has out from Deutsche Bank tied to his role as a Real Estate Developer i4 he moved into the white house. This is something we have been hearing a lot from lawmakers opposed to donald trump. They want to see more transparency into this lending, into these issues. Deutsche bank has lent money to the president and his family members and miller will be probing those loans. The money stick with bond unitsme, money are being investigated as a way a result of the way they treated distressed customers. The stock is down reasonably sharply. Moreean stocks called it negative. London will move more on what is happening with the pound today. Keep an eye on some of the basic resources, stocks as well. They could be interesting. Coming up is the market open. This is bloomberg. Is this a phone . Or a little internet machine . [ phone rings ] it makes you wonder. Shouldnt we get our phones and internet from the same company . Thats why Xfinity Mobile comes with your internet. You get up to 5 lines of talk and text at no extra cost. So all you pay for is data. Choose by the gig or unlimited. And ask how to get a 200 prepaid card when you buy any new samsung device with Xfinity Mobile. A new kind of network designed to save you money. Click, call or visit today. Guy we have a minute to go before the start of cash trading for equities. The pound is on the move this morning and that means the london ftse will outperform. Here is the cable rate. You can see the move. The cable rate trading a little softer this morning and that will translate, and i use the word translate correctly here, into what will happen with the ftse 100, because it is that translation of earnings. Oil is also coming under some pressure. But the big theme of the morning is what is happening with this off. Rotation, fall call it what you will. Take a look at the grr on the spx, and youll see its tech. Semiconductors are taking the biggest hits right now. Were going to want that space carefully. Heres the European Market open. The ftse 100, actually opening 73. 38. Ative territory at were looking at a positive story. The other European Markets are expected to open into negative territory this morning but the pound, this is the pound effect, which is interesting. Matt will have the movers in a moment. S talk about the sectors. Here is the imap. At the moment, the stoxx 600 is letsutely flat, but break it down. The tech stocks are continuing to come under pressure. Energies are trading lower. We just showed you what is happening with the oil trade. The materials are also largely weaker as well. Its interesting. Littleancials are a more mixed. Theres a lot of year end effect going on here, but its interesting to see materials, i. T. Coming under pressure. Health care is also selling off this morning. Generally, money coming from that side into this side this morning. Energy off, materials off, and i. T. Trading softer, matt. Matt i do have the mov screen here. I have gotreak i a broken down by news points. News thate the could be moving the stock here. You can see the actual how index, as in points the company is adding or subtractingfrom. The stoxx 600, how many Percentage Points are moving. Lvnh is moving down 1. 7 . As far as the losers, glencore is a loser today. Rio tinto is a loser today. Well be talking about the world of commodities. They had a rough trade in asia overnight, though they have been doing quite well over the last few weeks. On the leaders side, hsbc is a winner here, as well as santander. This goes to the theme guy was talking about, a rotation. Investors, selling tech stocks at least we have seen that in the u. S. And asia overnight and using that money to buy financial stocks. That could be in the work in todays trade as well. This basically at the water level, as there is very little change on the index. Guy the pound is under pressure this morning and it rallied into the meeting yesterday in brussels. It faded fast. It failed to reach a deal with the european union, who was the last minute over the irish border. A lunch that and it without an agreement. Morniow down again this ng, as we continue to give up those gains. Volatility has begun to spike again. That catches the period of this european summit, which is by no means anything like it was surrounding the brexit vote, which looks a little bit like this. Yes, we have come up, but we are well within the bounds we have been operating in in the last few months. Joining us now, the fx strategis

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