Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20180221 : vimarsan

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Whatd You Miss 20180221

The accident happened in southern peru are no word on the cause yet. A bill was presented today to enforce tougher immigration rules. Up bill is aimed at speeding the expulsion of people who do not provide better conditions to those who want to stay in the country such as offering more classes and job training. Organizations are criticizing the proposal as represses and unfair for silence asylumseekers. Global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im mark come Mark Crumpton and this is bloomberg. Julia live, i am julia chatterley. Lisa i am in for scarlet fu. Joe i am joe weisenthal. Julia stocks rapidly having gains with further tightening. The 10 year yield trading at 2. 9 4 joe the question is what did you miss . Meetingism in the final based on inflation. Pressures may be lurking. Stocks balancing. David fitzpatrick is talking about why facebook and taking a matter into its own hands. Why the boom in electric vehicles could make getting cobalt more challenging. Yellens final fomc meeting. Policymakers said they meet momentum that the optimistic reporting included some caution on wage gains. Here with more is the Merrill Lynch head of u. S. Economics. With us. Avy i will pull out is the fact that the fed majority says stronger growth could lift the like the hood of hike. There is a further word gain we heard in the meeting. What is your take . The idea of further into the statement was a way of three in the commit met to further rate hikes. Ory are not quantifying it suggesting they will go faster. They feel the risk factor to be more favorable, it made it very clear growth momentum is shifting up and they believe in their ability to execute as suggested. Joe every six months, you have a conversation, is the philips curve dead. Based on the minutes today, it seems there is a clear link between Economic Growth and as the growth picks up as they expect this year and that is what it boosts their inflation outlook. In the end, is that the model that will guide our thinking on it question mark one thing that was interesting is the inflation with three different specifications and models and how to think about inflation. The conclusion was that the majority of officials still believe the curve was a reasonable way of thinking about inflation, though there are questions about how in general, the reliability of it. When the rate falls, pressure should build and inflation should therefore trend higher. So i stick i think that is still the framework. If anything, they are getting clear evidence in the data that it is relevant. Inflation datand are starting to pick up and it is all gradual. You have to be careful reading into one or two months of data. These levels are presumably below full employment, and you of wageng evidence pressures. Can you explain to us what happened today . There was pretty much no reaction. 20 minutes later, i have a chart here, looking at the 10 year treasury yield, in an intraday about 22220an see five, boom, up it goes, and this is a huge move for the 10 year yield. What happened . It is around the same time stocks started to plunge. The most interesting thing is this saw a bigger reaction of twoyear yield and you can expect to react more to any idea of hiking rates faster. Five basis points, by the way. You that just told pulled it up as well. Read to the details of the minutes, and there was a conversation that suggests the tie in. Ot going to perhaps it is starting to move expectations higher. It is the idea that they will remain somewhat patient and exit good as you stock, they are welcoming inflation as expected. The other thing that could potentially be interesting is the idea around changing the inflation target. That came up in minutes. Moving away from an outright point target to a range. It is typically the range leading in a higher direction. Overall with the concerns trying to tie that to the market, they have not overall moved far. Talk about what you have seen since . Asse minutes are out dated well. The weaker reset retail sales data as well. Ut the meds in perspective ppi, and of course the moves and the stock market. A lot is happened since. You have to take it into consideration that it is somewhat dated. I dont think the data should successively alter what the fed communication would be anyway. View looking listen to officials, it has been consistent in the message. Philadelphia fed price today, it is a gradual hiking cycle. Year . Many heists this my view is three hikes this year and three next year. I think they will end up coming a little above now but i think they will probably shift next year given the momentum we are seeing in the data. The growth data has been coming in strong. Gdp growth, two point 9 this year. It is a strong number. The rate will fall faster. The question is around inflation. How quickly does inflation breakup and how words does that get officials about the prospect . Unemployment rate at 3. 2 on the backside as well. In light of that number, where will inflation be . Thank you for joining us. The head of u. S. Economics oklahoma passes largest topping earnings estimates. Be discussing and hopefully explaining. From new york, this is bloomberg. Julia some may be surprised to learn they have been helping fund the firearms industry. The state pension plan held more than 40,000 shares of American Outdoor brands formally known as smith and western. Semiautomatic ar15 assault rifles used in last weeks attack. Joining to discuss, great to have you. Through the details. There were clearly a lot of people surprised by the holding desk surprised by the holdings of the fund. Absolutely. You get your reports where you go line item by line item. Many Firearms Companies do not sound like Firearms Companies. It could really be anything. Insaw they were invested four firearm companies. It has come up before in the past when teachers in california realized they were invested in the funds as well. Have they done typically in the past when futures realized they were invested in firearms and have we heard anything about what they are trying to do . Attack athe tragic the sandy hook elementary school, they decided to divest. So medially, they sold 3 million worth of shares to the company and moved to stop working with a fund that owned remington. In this case, we havent seen such action yet. We just broke the story yesterday and it might happen later. Joe what are the complications involved in devasting . Three years from between when they decided to divest, why did that take so long . It is a conversation they need to have. As an entireecide organization whether it is worth it for you. On the other hand, there are implications, managing your money for you, that is a conversation to have here a couple to from recent bike might take that long. President trump labonte stocks, you have seen those bump stocks, you have she seen shares rally. Financial implications as well. Awkward. I wonder whether the teachers pension actually responded at all. Them. Reached out to it is their responsibility to make money. They will trade them. Anything available to be traded. They have not done super well especially since trump was elected. It is called the trump slump. In terms of getting out of that iscks something teachers have to be considering. We saw this with firearms. Going not as advanced forward. Thank you. Time for the bloomberg is this flash, a look at some biggest is in the news now. Would be theat Biggest Technology takeover ever after broadcom today lowered its bid in rejection to qualcomm raising its own bid for the dutch chipmaker and semiconductors, which has been rejected twice. Directly to qualcomm shareholders. Elect a sevenmember board on march 6. In germany, the ceo says the exchange on a quarter of the euro clearing market next year, it tells bloomberg he had a strategy for luring business away from london. I strongly believe the market. E can live quite frankly, the markets will sort it out finally. Offering 1. 4 billion dollars according to a filing today. Boeing has been awarding larger dividends. It is the first trip to the bond market. Artificially inflating metrics. Out with his latest results, the company beat on earnings that shares fell. Alix steel joins us now with more perspective. Alix one of the most prolific areas in the state. The budget of 1. 3 billion and the stock fell to a new 53 week low. Joining on the phone is the ceo of newfield x duration. Always great to catch up with you. Thank you for joining me. What do you think the market was so negative about in your earnings . We issued a comprehensive threeyear outlook today. Double digits, oil growth rates through the plan time, and Program Performance in all areas, improving margins, stronger cash flow growth, all of the above. End of the day, as you indicated, we have got a strong asset is in oklahoma led by scoop and stack. We have done this long enough to know we shouldnt get fixated on single data points. Though i dont like todayss reaction and the stock price, i know we are making the right long time decisions for Capital Allocation choices. The rhetoric around it has also been perhaps that the wealthy what you are drilling is more gassy and less oily. Quarter of last year, how do you respond to that . That they will just be guess he or . We have got a large footprint. We do not control all of the drilling activities. These activities are initiated by others. Some of that work is hpv work to secure that for the future. E will participate in that the other will happen ultimately with the multiwell drilling units, you will have big chunks of production coming online. We have the Fourth Quarter operated by other pads. That piece around 250 million today. That will affect percentages on a quarter to quarter basis. Fairpoint and i understand the idea that you will not look chart that i have a shows surprising underperformance in the sector. Oil price versus newfield, the etf, taking into account oil and exploration companies. You have been really underperforming and my question is why. Is that that you have not delivered a buyback dividend or your focusing more on capex . I think were focused on a plan to Free Cash Flow. Want balanced cash flow for capex and generate Free Cash Flow. Clearlyhat plan forth and i would say everyone is like that to be yesterday but we expect to be in the situation the second half of 18 and we rates strong positive cash flow 19 and 20. To piggyback off of that, what is he doing about it for 2019 and 2020 two serve the cash flow when it has evaporated . We are 75 hedged right now 50 price chair we think we are good in good shape. Have nothing at 20 at this point. We continue to watch the market and see how the macro develops. Clearly, the curve, it probably wouldnt be prudent to add a lot of opposition here just kind of let it roll toward you and strike on that position they are a little poster in time. Lets get your view on the macro. His year, 55 oil anywhere between 55 and 60 for 2019. Was the main upgrade for that 14 to 18 . Was it an operational micro call . Primarily operational. Year aned around 55 this and we continue to talk about it. 55, it is not a bad premise of this point. We will be balanced in the second half of this year. We think that is a zip code we are likely to see. ,f things stabilize at 60 everything gets better and we throw off 1 billion of Free Cash Flow with the plan we put out today. We like the plan. A solid plan we will execute against. I suspect we would look back today at one of those noisy days as people place their bets. Tolly good to keep catch up with you. Thank you very much. Julia great interview. Coming up, buying Corporate Bonds at a negative rate for the first time in 11 months. What does the move mean . The chart you cannot miss is next. This is bloomberg. Bank of japan for the first time in 11 months, this is the chart i have been looking at what i find it fascinating. Here we are talking about monitored lightning type monetary tightening. Look at that, just lowering the yields on Corporate Bonds in the region even more. Losing money for the Corporate Bonds purposes. Japanow, the bank of owning 70 of the etf market, they own to the Corporate Bond market, this to me is fascinating. It highlights how accommodative. Ll the Central Banks are i think about it from a corporate perspective. I love it. There is more restraint. I know. Stocks tech stocks p are people like them. I took this chart and you see the stocks relative valuation oh stocks versus the s p 500. The be regimet change on this front. It is incredible. I love the idea that amazon is worth 2. 5 walmart at this point. Absolutely. The market close is next. The sectors are weighing here energy down. Telco is down 1. 5 Real Estate Interest rate sectors. With the 10year pushing higher, this is bloomberg. Retail. Under pressure like never before. And its connected technology thats moving companies forward fast. Ecommerce. Real time inventory. Virtual changing rooms. Thats why retailers rely on comcast business to deliver consistent Network Speed across multiple locations. Every corporate office, warehouse and store near or far covered. Leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. Comcast business outmaneuver. Julia stock split leg lower and raising gains off the fed optimistic limits. I am julia chatterley. Joe and i am joe weisenthal, and for those joining live on twitter, i will need to the closing bell. Julia we begin with the market limit, interesting price action as you look at the performance on the daily session for the individual equity markets today, we have snapshots of the concession anend. We were in positive territory, and then after that we saw the reassessment from the language of the Federal Reserve of optimism on growth and optimism about inflation and assessment of the reading and what i ultimately means for rate hikes, and you see the repricing of the u. S. Tenure spiking higher, impacting what we see as far sentiment and a leg lower into the close. Lisa if you look further into individual movers, lets look at some of the biggest. Energy falling nearly 12 after the Oil Exports Fell short of fourthquarter production estimates and felt to present specific plans on investment return. Garmin falling in fitness and a decline in automotive, and mgm resorts falling after reporting revenue in the Fourth Quarter at its las vegas strip. So there you go, some of the laggers. In the bondf action market coming from the fed minutes, with rates up across the board with twoyear yields at 2. 7, and 10year gilts up to 2. 94, and one more day like this we could be at 3 , and a quick look abroad, south africa 30 year yield sharply lower after the new president announced a new income tax sales tax that people perceive as good for the budget, so a huge rally there. A quick look at the intraday action, it is interesting as you see the jump, when the minutes came out, they digested them for a while because of the inflation talk, and then they spread into it and said this growth, inflation, more confidence in hikes, and we saw the jump into the close. Multiyear highs for the 10 year yield. I am looking at the session chart for the dollaryen and we saw instant dollar weakness as a result of those minutes, and then the dollar spiked as far as we solve the tenure in particular is concerned, and then reaction of five basis points higher. Right now you can see sterling weaker, it weakened earlier amid a combination of job data and Prime Minister theresa may under pressure once again from 62 members of her own party demanding a quick and clean break from the eu. Good luck with that. Bank of england governor talked about the outlook of rate hikes and chief economist saying pickup in the u. K. Wage growth is starting to take root, but it got blown out of the water by the Dollar Strength that we saw mentioned earlier. Up 5 10 of 1 , and the dollaryen plummeting than rallying, then coming into the back and of the trading session in the United States, and think at a quarter of a percent higher. As a result of emerging markets repricing, or flattening across the 2 10 curve, you have the dollar rand higher by 4 10 of 1 , and brazil weaker by 4 10 of thinning to tax of 1 , so overall a mixed abag. Joe and finally on commodities, some red, some green. Modestly it is interesting, emmett selling, some of the industrial leaning commodities and in green on the day, copper futures up a quarter of a percent and lumber that is on a terror lately and keeps pressing higher, up about 2 , and those are todays market minutes. Julia lets get perspective and bring in romain bostick. Talk to have you with us, to me about fed minutes and the repricing we saw today. Andt was a major repricing, as we came out of the gate, everything seemed rosy and we talked about the goldilocks scenario, and the pearly it was a the goldilocks scenario. There has been a major repricing or misalignment between what the market sees and the stock market sees and what the bond market sees and what the fed is telegraphing it there has to be some reconciliation. The do see a theory about minutes because we can focus on it but there is no clear answer as to why there should be a major reinterpretation. We talked about this and we are wondering what changed between 20 and what it boiled down to is this theres expectation the fed may telegraph a pullback of the ee rate hikes that we had once the market first scott the statement, it looked like there was pullback, but once they read between the lines, they realized that the fed is not going lower than three or higher than three, so we are basically back to where we were when we woke up this morning. Michelle meyer, who we just had on our show, was talking about in some ways that this showed some reticence affecting members to hike to quickly so they could allow inflation to pick up, and if you look at the bloomberg here, i am evenng at fiveyear break contracts, this is a measure of inflation over the next decade, and as you can see, right around 212 come up before the selloff began in treasuries and stock. Andsee a repricing expectations, and the longer the rates, you seeke longerterm rates, not the short end. You look at the 212 and similar trajectory on the five and twoyear break even, keep in mind last there were averaging 1. 8 and 1. 9 on that tenur

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