General Public Perception of economic growth, and the like. Romaine we saw it about two points off the alltime high. The dow jones also up 0. 3 . The nasdaq, 100. Scarlet we should mention as well let the russell 2000 did end up with gains, but has been a laggard. 10 below its record high, reached last august. Romaine dow transport is down a half percent as well, so another sector you tend to want to see join the party. Lets dive deeper into the market action. Abigail, get us started. Abigail the s p 500 almost closing at a record high, that during the day putting in on alltime high. Is 3000 a psychologically important level, or is it important for the technicals . We will tune into that at work 40. Lets look at the chart we have looked at since the beginning of june. He goes back to december of 2017 area there is a huge range. The bulls and the heirs bears are really duking it out. The s p 500 seems to be moving into this pattern, suggesting the s p 500 is confirmed for well above 3000. But the bigger question will be, if that does happen, will we see the s p 500 dropped down into this range . A bearish formation overall, sitting through all the uncertainty. It looks like new record highs ahead for the s p 500, which will probably close some point soon above 3000, at least looking at this chart. Emma the rally is back on for gold, futures rising 1. 3 , and extending yesterdays gains into a second day. Comments from fed chair jay powell fueling that rally again. Ls would have bul liked his comment that suggests a rate cut at the end of july. We heard caution on the global economy, on trade war. All of that is a louche is bullish for gold. What you see is a revival of the gold rally. Looking at gold, you can see its stellar rise since the end of may through june. We were treated last week on the strength of the jobs numbers, unexpected strength of those jobs numbers. We drop back below 1400, but we are back above it today. It leaves one analysts saying we are likely to see 1500 an ounce before the end of the summer. Just as you say, gold is back up. We do see fear and volatility driving that chart today, driving investors. Remember, gold does not draw interest. Because the fed is more dovish, we know that more Interest Rates make commodities like gold a little more competitive against the asset against the interest bearing assets. Gold boasted monthly gains on a prospect of lower rates. We know that analysts are saying that in the mediumterm gold will get more big as uncertainty continues. Thank you, markets team. Still with us only some of being Alicia Levine and gina martin. Alecia, i want to start with you. In addition to the stocks rally every day, we see extraordinary things happen in fixed income and rates around the world. Is there any reason to think that has to come to an end . We watch the bonds go deeper into negative territory . Alicia japan and europe have a problem. This is negative yielding. They have no inflation. It is not clear what they can get out of their trap. They have the liquidity trap. They cannot get out of it. Today talky powell about the reason to lower rate is not to get into the inflation problem and disinflation problem, because you cannot get out of it so quickly. The fed still has tools at its disposal in a way the ecb and japan do not anymore. It has room to go. I want to point out something interesting. This is playing out ideally for the administration, if i may say so. Situationave is a where the fed makes 60 basis points by the end of the year before there is a trade deal if you think about what would happen for markets, if you have a 50 basis point cut by december and a trade deal by yearend, think about what 2020 looks in the markets. It is playing out in a way that is very positive for the administration. Romaine is that trade deal priced into the market or not . I sometimes get the sense that the market has already gotten ahead. Alicia it is tough. A trade deal that deals with the structural issues i believe there will be something. There will be some sort of headline soft trade deal, where there is some purchases and some promise to remove tariffs. The real issue here that is affecting what the fed sees is the uncertainty created by tariffs. Removehave a test to tariffs, you will get growth out of that. Scarlet what do you think is not priced into the market . Alicia i think a trade deal is not priced in. I have yet to speak to an investor that is trading on this prospect of trade being resolved. I completely take the point that maybe somebody a few people are anticipating modest changes to the trade relationship. But a full on resolution of trade risk is definitely not priced into the market. I think we have priced for s before theate cut end of the year. I dont think the market knows what to do with 2020. We are expecting rate cuts, recovery, and earnings. There will be a bit of give and take in the short run between we are going to get rate cuts, but we are also going to get earnings. We will have to see resolution into that conflict at some point. But generally the market tanks we are going to evade recession. We may continue to have this overwhelming sort of trade uncertainty. The fed has got our back is the way i see the market price right now. Scarlet when we look at liquidity for the rally and the fact that the u. S. Is more attractive than the rest of the world, which will continue to prop pressure on yields, where does that leave the u. S. Dollar . He isesident is clear more focused on the dollar than equity prices. Alicia the Central Banks are of involved in competitive devaluations. The ecb went first and the president was upset with draghi. The truth is the ecb was his friend, because it forced the fed to look at the strong u. S. Dollar and what that would do to the u. S. The value will soften the second half of the year. Big current where we are the only developed economy where you can get a return on assets at all. There will be a natural flow to the u. S. Counteracting that is a dovish fed and the deficit. It is countervailing trends. Scarlet there is going to be a floor under the dollar no matter what the president wants. Alicia levine of bny mellon, thank you so much, and Gina Martin Adams of bloomberg intelligence. That does it for the closing bell and for me. Up next, we look at the impact of fed policy on emerging markets in particular. Romaine live from bloomberg world had letters in new york, i am romaine bostick. Taylor i am taylor riggs. Joe i am joe weisenthal. Caroline hyde is off. Romaine the rally restarted. Stocks, treasuries, gold all higher as powell lays out the case for a rate cut. Howell will in the house. The fed chairman signaled a rate cut is still on the table as risk and uncertainty grow. And a Seismic Shift while the Worlds Largest consumer of goods says chinas factories are in a desperate state. And lets make a deal. This hour, we bring you ceos,ve interviews from live from sun valley. Powell seeing jay increased uncertainty in the markets, dovish sentiment, and making it increasingly likely the fed will cut rates in july. Here are some comments from his testimony today. Powell the overall economy is performing well. We see what we call crosscurrents, principally trade developments and concerns over Global Growth. , and many fomc calling for possibly more accommodative policy. To call something hot, you need to see some heat. We have lots of reports of companies having a hard time finding qualified labor. Nevertheless, we do not see wages really responding. I do not see that as a current issue. The bottom line for me is that the uncertainties around Global Growth and trade continue to weigh on the outlook. In addition, inflation continues to be muted. Those things are still in place. Said what i intended to say on the subject, and what i have said is that the law gives me a fouryear term i fully intend to serve area to serve. Emerging markets around the world watching for clues on where u. S. Rates will go. Lets talk about how todays news impact them. Joins us now on the phone from london. Paul, thank you for joining us. Lets start big picture. It looks like the fed is about to start cutting, maybe one and done. Maybe the start of a new cycle. How do you think about e. M. Overall in the context of the transactions . Paul i think the fed cutting is clearly helpful to e. M. World growth is lopsided toward the u. S. , and anything that kind of reduces the big gap in Interest Rates, in line with a slight slowing down of the u. S. That is likely to mean a slightly weaker dollar, and a weaker dollar is very good for yen. We are more focused on the u. S. Growth picture than the fed, but the fed at least ceasing to hike is a positive, especially when steady buzzanied by out of the white house about wanting the dollar weaker. In e. M. , we are much more focused on the dollar than on rates. We talked about dollar weakness in the context of a bad rate cut. A fed rate cut. Someone and Brown Brothers said you cannot assume weakness, given that the new central bank out there could be more dovish. Are you really assuming dollar weakness as you take a look at some of these pairs . If everyone is more dovish, could you actually see Dollar Strength . Paul you could certainly see Dollar Strength. The story this year has really been that although u. S. Growth has been ok at the margins it has been disappointing. Its a price index has been coming down. Although European Growth has not been great, it has been at the margins less than expected. We have had some momentum because things have turned out slightly different from expectations. To move much further, we have to see strength in the rest of the world. With e. M. Not really firing on all cylinders, that means strength in europe. That is really quite hard to get behind this idea. There is always something going wrong in europe. Romaine sticking with you real quickly, do you think the s underestimating the potential for what the ecb could do . Paul in terms of what they could do, no. Backas draghi takes a step very ecb has proved to be minimal and flexible in the past, but what it has not really managed to do is get growth going. In the first instance, if the ecb announces something aggressive, i think that could be positive for European Growth, and perversely positive for the euro. It is hard to see European Growth going. With the german export machine sort of stalled with trade wars, and italy is italy, and brexit, although it will be much worse for the u. K. , is also not going to be good for europe at the the risk although the ecb can help, the balance of risk does seem to be weighing against europe. Romaine lets talk joe lets talk about interesting idiosyncratic news we have gotten over the last few days. The surprise resignation of the finance minister of mexico leading to a hit in the peso, people concerned about the direction of the administration. What is your view right now . Obviously, the peso has been a pretty big win over the past several months. How much, from your perspective, does this concern people, and maybe wonder that the government will embark on some unwise policy actions . It is a balance and it is actually quite similar to what has happened in some western countries in the u. S. , with trump and with us and the various lunatics wandering around here. You have a very populist government, and its sort of rings in people like in mexico, sorry , or kudlow to try to bring up some credibility. Sometimes, the technocrats to find the populists are pushing too hard and you get resignations like this. I think in mexicos case what we amlo isand low in that he is not doing longterm reforms. He is not fixing pemex, not whitening the tech space. In the long, he is not doing anything good. The view we have taken until now the resignation statement was pretty bold. Quite par for the fact that globally diplomacy seems to be via twitter these days. He basically accused the president s chief of staff of bypassing him. I think this is not a reason to run screaming from mexican assets, but at the margin it is clearly negative news, and it is a strike against the big picture of amlo as a pragmatist. Taylor lets go to turkey, another emerging market currency. Significant weakness after the Central Bank Governor was replaced. We talked about the lack of independence in Monetary Policy over in turkey. How do you fall in those risks, the political risk, Monetary Policy risk into your forecast of dollarlira . Paul turkey is interesting because there is a scenario where turkey goes into complete meltdown. Mexico at least has a very strong external reserve position. Fiscal policy, the banks are not overextended. In turkey, none of that is true. It has been clear for some time that the big risk for turkey is that the policymakers wont through. Follow through. In turkey, the current account deficit about a year ago was running about 7 of gdp. It is in balance, but only at the cost of a recession which has crushed imports. When we saw the turks take their foot off the brake in the Second Quarter ahead of municipal elections, we saw imports pick up again and external balances deteriorate. That had negative consequences. After an extreme you really strong run, the lira sagged. What were worried is that the new guy, whose name i think ns amenable or cooperative if he starts cutting rates turkey is certainly justified in cutting rates. But if he goes too far, we could see the lira fall. That could easily spiral, because there is so much or and debt much foreign debt in turkey at a fall in the lira makes it tough to Service Foreign debt, and things could get very rough very quickly. As with mexico, you have got a populist leader that is hiding behind the credibility of technocrats and is finding that the restrictions the technocrats demand are too much for him. Mexico, it is a big step in the wrong direction, but probably a little bit too early. Taylor great conversation on emerging markets, folding that into our Federal Reserve conversation. That was paul mcnamara. Coming up, our lucid interview with the gl of centime, with the ceo discussing a new acquisition. Romaine lets head back to sun valley, idaho, where at hammond is standing by with an exclusive interview with a Top Executive in the health care industry. Is ahat is right, michael ceo. Lets start where you were last year. There was a lot of fanfare because we had Warren Buffett and j. P. Morgan going into the managed care space. Health insurers come in. A lot of and fair. Since then, not much. What has happened . Michael you never know what is happening behind the scenes, but if you look at their total employee population, there is not enough to build around. They also need a lot of systems capabilities. You put in the systems of medical management. I still appreciate what they did. They are what i call constructive disruptives. Disruptive you have dealt with recently you had activists in your stock one in you to sell the company to humana, not wanting to do the wellcare deal. I am not going to give you credit for saying them off necessarily, but getting rid of mr. Loeb and Keith Meister a lot of ceos would love to do it. What is the trick . Michael the trick . Michael we looked at all the alternatives before we did the wellcare deal. We did complete staff work in the British Military part of it here would we look at all of that. 1250 increase in price of the stock over the last 10 years. It is one of the fastestgrowing stocks. There is concern about refreshing the board. We are doing it. There is a plan. There will be new directors on board. We will refresh some. We are not a company that is in trouble. I understand that everybody tries to do what they can. Stock, theyer of were looking for an event where they could get a quick 20 , 30 , and goodbye. Our longterm shareholders, as was proven, 99. 8 of them approved the deal. Ed still waiting for the regulators. Where is the process . You said it will take some time. 2020 was the most recent guidance. Michael im sticking with that guidance although we are trying to accelerated any way we can. We have a business license. Every time we get a new state approval, we announce it. We have had four or five we talked about at our last investors meeting. That is going well. We find that justice is very constructive. We will be working with them, giving them what they need. They need to understand that this is good for the recipients, dedicated recipients. It iseed to understand not competitive, because there are multiple players in the space. We are not going to be a providers. The providers are our profit. We protect them. We are careful what they pay them. It is not a chance to cut rates. Continue to improve outcomes first. Good outcomes at lest costs. Our systems achieve that. We are helping them understand that, and i think it will go well. Constructive, interested in the right things. Ed lets wrap on this, which brings it together. You have to get approval from justice. That might become politicized area everything around the aca at the moment is highly politicized. Where do you see that going . Think justicenot will get into the policy of the aca. They tend to be matter of fact. The aca, we have grown every year. We had 80 of the people continue to renew. What i hope the politician start to think about is moving from politics to policy. Ed on that note, we will have to leave it there. Rff in sun valley. This is bloomberg. Im Mark Crumpton with first word news. Insisting he got the best deal he could at the time, the labor secretary and former federal prosecutor alex acosta today defended his handling of a sex trafficking case involving jeffrey epstein. Secretary acosta spoke to reporters as democratic lawmakers intensified calls for his resignation. Acosta said facts are important effects are being overlooked. He is under fire for his part in the secret 2008 please deal he signed that led let epstein avoid prosecution. A declared his office to the best it could at the time under the circumstances. He would have avoided is an altogether. Officee u. S. Attorneys in miami became involved. Epstein got an ultimatum. Pleaded guilty to a charge that would require gilles simon registration or face federal charges. More than 10week years ago that estimate to jail. Secretary acosta also said he welcomed the new case