Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 2024071

Crime bill that he helped write. In a speech today, the democratic president ial candidate was expected to call for an end to the disparity that pleased stricter sentencing terms on certain drug offenses. He will also propose an end to the federal death penalty. Several of his rivals have blamed the bill for the mass incarceration of racial minorities. The chinese vice premier that declared martial law before the tournament square crackdown has died. E was 90. Ordered was eventually into the square, which led to the deaths of possibly thousands of people. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. It is 1 00 p. M. In new york, im vonnie quinn. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Vonnie from bloomberg World Headquarters committees are the top stories on the bloomberg and from around the world. Trading low, we will speak to and snape is hoping for an earnings beat after the bell today and investors are watching. Moving from the u. S. To italy, is it the end of globalization . First lets go to abigail doolittle. We are halfway into the trading day and we are holding onto little gains. Abigail the dollar is doing better than any major averages. We are looking at another up today for the dow, s p 500 and the nasdaq. Earnings are related. We have that bipartisan debt deal helping the u. S. Dollar, up for tens of 1 . Up for a third day in a row. The best stretch for the dollar going back to june. The dollar is getting a bit of a bid. But that has not hurt cocacola or United Technologies, both companies are Big Multinational Companies that receive more than 40 of the revenue from abroad. Cocacola trading at a record high of 5. 9 , they beat comps in a big way. Good Earnings Reports on strong volume. And United Technologies also putting up a good quarter, boosting on aerospace strength. They are off of their highs, but they are still strong on the day. And we have Earnings Reports after the bell. Lets take a look at whether those stocks are doing. Chipotle Mexican Grill down 1. 5 ahead of that restaurants Earnings Report after the bell. A revival under the new ceo, who was put in place a few quarters ago. That is one of the top stocks for the s p 500, up about 70 , so hibor expectations. Snap is up 106 to 5 on the year, it has been a banner year for some of these stocks. Shares trading sharply higher into that report. Visa is down slightly. Texas instruments, one of the first big check Chip Companies to report for this season. They are up going into the quarter. There is an expectation for declining growth on a yearoveryear basis for the numbers, but lots of investors are hoping that the chip sectors have put in a bottom. Texas instruments, you would think this is a cheap stock, a value stock, but it is not. That is true for the entire sector. Lets take a look at a chart in the bloomberg of the stocks. What we are looking at is the highest valuation in 10 years. This is the bloomberg best pe. The stocks, going all the way back to 2010, they are at trough levels. But then in 2013, climbing closer to the current levels around 17 times. That is swinging between 13 times and 17 times. Right now, level in 10 years. What makes it interesting is the fact that the stock has not had an alltime high since april. That tells you that the earnings are shrinking, the prices going higher. There is a lot going on for these highgrowth chip stocks. It will be interesting to see if the earnings can be boosted. Texas instruments will be reporting after the bell on thursday, that will be an early tell as to whether or not that will happen. Vonnie we can ask our next guest. We are sticking with stocks. We are looking at alibaba this makes more than four decades. Versus those with the best earnings growth. Joining us is matthew mckennon, he has managed a more than 1 billion in assets. Said, are these stocks undervalued . You have to differentiate between different kinds of businesses in the semiconductor industry. Some subsectors are competitive, some are more stable with recurring revenues. So she discussed texas instruments, which is a position we have held, a small position. It is a company that has a longer product cycle, Analog Devices industries are much more consolidated. It is Free Cash Flow generating. And it is the kind of investment that weve made over the years. Vonnie that speaks a little bit to the problems with the value base, because it is not just one behemoth. There is a lot to talk about within value, yet investors have waited for the value rotation now for the last three years and have bemoaned the fact it is not happening. Is there going to be a rotation to values . Trees do not grow to the sky, so i think that no one style of investing statistically based will be in favor, whether it is growth or value. One of these things that is important is we do things differently. We do not define value from purely statistical terms. You can look at pricetobook value, for example, but sometimes the most important aspects do not exist on the Balance Sheet. Things like the strength of market position or the discipline and quality of management teams. We spent time thinking about intangible assets. And i think that makes our portfolio look different than what you would expect if you are looking at topdown metrics. Vonnie where do you see the fragility now . What is underperforming for the broader markets . One of the defining features of the last six months has been the collapse of the long end of the curve in terms of Interest Rates. We have had an inverted yield curve. In other times, such as the late 1990s when we had that inverted curve, they also have to be they also have to have periods where they have underperformed growth stocks. What the market might be telling you is some of the cyclical businesses are pricing a little more difficult conditions ahead for earnings. Just like the yield curve adverting is a warning sign, perhaps they extended period of a value underperforming growth is a warning sign for where we are in the business cycle. Vonnie hold that thought, i will play sound from the imfs chief economist about Global Growth. She spoke about why the imf reduced the global outlook. This is sluggishness is to summon stent is to some extent selfinflicted and it is an outcome of prolonged uncertainty on the trade front, escalating tensions on technology, the prolonged uncertainty with brexit, and these factors are weighing on growth. Vonnie when you hear that, obviously the imf is not the only organization saying this, do you think that that has relevance for your style of investing . I think the bond and equity markets have priced that to a certain extent. I think beyond the pause from the Political Uncertainty around brexit or trade issues, perhaps there are fundamental issues. It is disturbing to me that close to the peak of the economic cycle, we see a lot of banks trading at the stress levels. So the credit creation mechanism is actually not performing the way it would ordinarily perform at the peak of the cycle, that is a warning sign, weaker banks. Secondly, the scope for government to stimulate economies is less than it was. The sovereign Balance Sheets have deteriorated as we went to through the last cycle, so the scope for fiscal easy to offset problems outside of the u. S. In the Banking Sector is constrained. Vonnie i want to ask about gold, i know that is an area you are interested in right now. It reached 1400, then back below 1400, now we are up around 1430. You say that gold is going higher . Over the longterm. I think that gold is an investment that will reward the patience of the owner. We do not have a shortterm directional view, but the reason we own gold is it is inherently resilient, both from a supply and demand standpoint. The fact it is scarce means there is less growth than whether dollars outstanding. It does not have the yield, but it will increase over time. From a demand standpoint, to the extent that most people who get gold buy it at store value and it tends to go up when the economy and real Interest Rates go down. So at acts as a potential hedge. It has been a good storer of real value and overtime has had its best performance in times of distress, that makes it useful. It has a strengthened of late. It has broken out of a fiveyear range of 10501350. Whether or not it goes higher in the shortterm, we do not know. If all this is stimulus we are hearing about, the devilish fed and ecb results in Stronger Economic growth, who knives who knows, it could be bad for gold. Portfolio 70 of our in equities and we want an asset that can serve as a hedge. Vonnie ok, nice. Matthew, thank you for joining us. We will have more time next time. The ubs a ceo is sounding the alarm as well monetary easing, just as policymakers are poised to deliver another round of qe. Us ons ceos spoke with why he believes that there will be dangerous asset bubble. Thatam not very convinced the medicine that has been prescribed in the past of just quantitative easing is of problems in europe. We need to go to a more indepth analysis of the steps necessary to create systemic sustainable growth. To we need to have reforms a various levels, political and Economic Reforms in europe. The Central Bank Policy can only help in a transition, it is not the solution of the problems. I would be very careful about having, you know, basically growing further the Balance Sheet of central banks, particularly when they go into andtbased that are at risk we are at the risk of creating an asset bubble. Im not sure i would follow that route. When you look at markets, we have high yields and quoted equity. All of the quoted markets have had a pretty spectacular first half. Do you concern yourself that we are heading toward bubble territory and some of these markets . I think that you can see it in the Second Quarter, yes asset prices went up. But it is not correlated with investor sentiment, which is of course a very dangerous development. Things that weod observe is cash balances with clients is very high. What they say is they are willing to step into the market, if there is a major correction. Levels, thosehigh are not necessarily correlated with investor sentiment. 0 on theout going to jp morgan note . Can you talk about the consequences for markets if we move toward that in the u. S. . I am not so sure the issue is really what are the consequences for markets, what are the consequent as for the broader economy for savings and particularly the social system . I think that in the u. S. They will watch carefully what happened in other parts of the world window rates went when the rates went to zero. It is very difficult to get out from and collateral damages are very high. So i hope the u. S. Will not follow that. If there is a deal between china and the u. S. , does that turn the key for risk with clients . I think that the chinau. S. Trade tensions is one of the factors keeping clients on the sidelines. I think that we need to have a more comprehensive resolution of many aspects. Ceo speakingbs with the bloomberg earlier today. To newup, snap gets bulls on its side. But will the Second Quarter spell midnight for the tech cinderella story . That is next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Snap reported Second Quarter earnings today and wall street will be looking for reassurance further optimistic view on the social media company. Bulls jumpingnew on the bandwagon, bahai expectations may end up being more harm than help. Sarah frier joins us from San Francisco with what to expect. Why should we expect something great out of q2, what did they release and that wouldve ignited the imagination . Sarah the biggest thing analysts are looking at this quarter is this is the quarter where the android rollout they have had problems with the Android Application and are they redesigned the whole thing and they finally rolled it out worldwide, so that is supposed to help them gain users, especially in those markets outside of the u. S. The other thing is maybe it is too late, because instagram has already gone into their territories with instagram stories, which is a lot like snap. But snap hopes its creativity and what it builds in its content and filters it will draw people back. Vonnie what about monetizing that . If it is better content, can they charge more or get more per user . Sarah i think the content has to be a big draw, that is where they make most of their money, on the content side. Most users however are using it for messaging. They have not built out there advertising on messaging yet, but they are really depending on creativity and in this quarter we might see a boost from the gender bender filter on the snap application. I do not know if you saw that go viral, the one where you could turn yourself into a different gender, that really brought people to the app and reminded them how fun it can be. It will be interesting to see if that had an impact on the user growth, which is really what is going to be key to growing the revenue and profit. Vonnie all of these innovations, you know, the face swap filter and is so on, when they bring people, do those people stay or do they just come for the show then leave again . Sarah it is hard to keep innovating as a means of drawing in new users. You look at other social Media Companies like facebook, which have really grown based on the strength of their networks, and stayhas basically tried to a step ahead of facebook in terms of the fun factor, like getting people to feel like coming to snapchat will be more entertaining. Which is possibly true, but if you do not have all of your friends there you may not keep coming back. It is a little bit of a risky strategy to depend on that content and the fun filters to keep making things go viral and keep getting people to be drawn back to snapchat. Vonnie sarah frier, thank you. The stock is up 3. 3 in anticipation of those earnings. Sarah is in San Francisco today. Still ahead, trade wars continue, but is globalization dying . We will discuss, next. As Boris Johnson is set to take over as the new Prime Minister, these are his comments on brexit and how they have panned out. The problem is not that we failed to make the case for a freetrade agreement of the kind spelled out at lancaster house, we have not even tried. We should junk the backstop. Do not rule out new deal. After three years and two missed deadlines, we must leave the European Union on october 31. I am the right man to unleash now on the project. It is vital that we get ready to come out without an agreement. Any further delay will end up eroding the politics that we have. We have an opportunity to come out with a better deal. We need to get brexit done. We know the mantra of the campaign that has just gone by. And in case you forgot, you probably have it is deliver brexit, unite the country and defeat Jeremy Corbyn. The campaign is over and the work begins. Vonnie President Trump assault on globalization has given rise to forecasts of its demise. Is it dying or evolving . Sean, what is the verdict . Where are we in the state of globalization . I think that donald trump and his arrival on the scene a couple years ago provoked these fears that we were seeing the end of globalization, but i think the answer is globalization is still in route health, it just looks different. A lot of it has to do with the metrics that we used to measure globalization. We often think about shipping containers when we think about trade and globalization. These days we should think about data and how they flow around the world, and the reality is that even as goods trade has a slow down in the past couple years, the flow of data is soaring. Vonnie we have a chart showing that. The terabytes per second is literally an exorbitant amount of data, and will likely continue to go higher. Therefore, those who worry about globalizations demise, should they be worried about these trade wars . If globalization does not necessarily mean trade of goods and services now, why worry . The answer is businesses have a lot at stake. And if there is still a lot of trade that happens in the world and the trade wars are still a big cost raiser, the tariffs supplyd they will affect chains and how they do business around the world. So there is reason to worry, but i think what we are arguing here is that globalization is not just the trade in physical goods, it is so much more. Therefore, we should think about the whole of the being and not just one part. Vonnie it is a fascinating piece and i would urge everybody to pick up a copy of Bloomberg Businessweek and read it and send us comments. Shawn in washington, thank you for joining us. A check of the markets. We have some gains for u. S. Stocks on earnings. The dow is up three tents of 1 . The nasdaq is up less than 2 10 of 1 . The dollar is stronger today, primarily on a weaker euro and sterling. This is bloomberg. Hey im bill slowsky jr. , i live on my own now ive got xfinity, because i like to live life in the fast lane. Unlike my parents. You rambling about xfinity again . Youre so cute when you get excited. Anyways. Ive got their app right here, i can troubleshoot. I can schedule a time for them to call me back, its great you have our number programmed in . Ya i dont even know your phone anymore. Excuse me . what . I dont know your phone number. Aw well. He doesnt know our phone number you have our fax number, obviously. Todays xfinity service. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Ill pass. Mark im Mark Crumpton with bloombergs first word news. Johnson addressed conservative members of the parliament after he was elected the new Mark Crumpton<\/a>. This is bloomberg. It is 1 00 p. M. In new york, im vonnie quinn. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Vonnie from bloomberg World Headquarters<\/a> committees are the top stories on the bloomberg and from around the world. Trading low, we will speak to and snape is hoping for an earnings beat after the bell today and investors are watching. Moving from the u. S. To italy, is it the end of globalization . First lets go to abigail doolittle. We are halfway into the trading day and we are holding onto little gains. Abigail the dollar is doing better than any major averages. We are looking at another up today for the dow, s p 500 and the nasdaq. Earnings are related. We have that bipartisan debt deal helping the u. S. Dollar, up for tens of 1 . Up for a third day in a row. The best stretch for the dollar going back to june. The dollar is getting a bit of a bid. But that has not hurt cocacola or United Technologies<\/a>, both companies are Big Multinational Companies<\/a> that receive more than 40 of the revenue from abroad. Cocacola trading at a record high of 5. 9 , they beat comps in a big way. Good Earnings Report<\/a>s on strong volume. And United Technologies<\/a> also putting up a good quarter, boosting on aerospace strength. They are off of their highs, but they are still strong on the day. And we have Earnings Report<\/a>s after the bell. Lets take a look at whether those stocks are doing. Chipotle Mexican Grill<\/a> down 1. 5 ahead of that restaurants Earnings Report<\/a> after the bell. A revival under the new ceo, who was put in place a few quarters ago. That is one of the top stocks for the s p 500, up about 70 , so hibor expectations. Snap is up 106 to 5 on the year, it has been a banner year for some of these stocks. Shares trading sharply higher into that report. Visa is down slightly. Texas instruments, one of the first big check Chip Companies<\/a> to report for this season. They are up going into the quarter. There is an expectation for declining growth on a yearoveryear basis for the numbers, but lots of investors are hoping that the chip sectors have put in a bottom. Texas instruments, you would think this is a cheap stock, a value stock, but it is not. That is true for the entire sector. Lets take a look at a chart in the bloomberg of the stocks. What we are looking at is the highest valuation in 10 years. This is the bloomberg best pe. The stocks, going all the way back to 2010, they are at trough levels. But then in 2013, climbing closer to the current levels around 17 times. That is swinging between 13 times and 17 times. Right now, level in 10 years. What makes it interesting is the fact that the stock has not had an alltime high since april. That tells you that the earnings are shrinking, the prices going higher. There is a lot going on for these highgrowth chip stocks. It will be interesting to see if the earnings can be boosted. Texas instruments will be reporting after the bell on thursday, that will be an early tell as to whether or not that will happen. Vonnie we can ask our next guest. We are sticking with stocks. We are looking at alibaba this makes more than four decades. Versus those with the best earnings growth. Joining us is matthew mckennon, he has managed a more than 1 billion in assets. Said, are these stocks undervalued . You have to differentiate between different kinds of businesses in the semiconductor industry. Some subsectors are competitive, some are more stable with recurring revenues. So she discussed texas instruments, which is a position we have held, a small position. It is a company that has a longer product cycle, Analog Devices<\/a> industries are much more consolidated. It is Free Cash Flow<\/a> generating. And it is the kind of investment that weve made over the years. Vonnie that speaks a little bit to the problems with the value base, because it is not just one behemoth. There is a lot to talk about within value, yet investors have waited for the value rotation now for the last three years and have bemoaned the fact it is not happening. Is there going to be a rotation to values . Trees do not grow to the sky, so i think that no one style of investing statistically based will be in favor, whether it is growth or value. One of these things that is important is we do things differently. We do not define value from purely statistical terms. You can look at pricetobook value, for example, but sometimes the most important aspects do not exist on the Balance Sheet<\/a>. Things like the strength of market position or the discipline and quality of management teams. We spent time thinking about intangible assets. And i think that makes our portfolio look different than what you would expect if you are looking at topdown metrics. Vonnie where do you see the fragility now . What is underperforming for the broader markets . One of the defining features of the last six months has been the collapse of the long end of the curve in terms of Interest Rates<\/a>. We have had an inverted yield curve. In other times, such as the late 1990s when we had that inverted curve, they also have to be they also have to have periods where they have underperformed growth stocks. What the market might be telling you is some of the cyclical businesses are pricing a little more difficult conditions ahead for earnings. Just like the yield curve adverting is a warning sign, perhaps they extended period of a value underperforming growth is a warning sign for where we are in the business cycle. Vonnie hold that thought, i will play sound from the imfs chief economist about Global Growth<\/a>. She spoke about why the imf reduced the global outlook. This is sluggishness is to summon stent is to some extent selfinflicted and it is an outcome of prolonged uncertainty on the trade front, escalating tensions on technology, the prolonged uncertainty with brexit, and these factors are weighing on growth. Vonnie when you hear that, obviously the imf is not the only organization saying this, do you think that that has relevance for your style of investing . I think the bond and equity markets have priced that to a certain extent. I think beyond the pause from the Political Uncertainty<\/a> around brexit or trade issues, perhaps there are fundamental issues. It is disturbing to me that close to the peak of the economic cycle, we see a lot of banks trading at the stress levels. So the credit creation mechanism is actually not performing the way it would ordinarily perform at the peak of the cycle, that is a warning sign, weaker banks. Secondly, the scope for government to stimulate economies is less than it was. The sovereign Balance Sheets<\/a> have deteriorated as we went to through the last cycle, so the scope for fiscal easy to offset problems outside of the u. S. In the Banking Sector<\/a> is constrained. Vonnie i want to ask about gold, i know that is an area you are interested in right now. It reached 1400, then back below 1400, now we are up around 1430. You say that gold is going higher . Over the longterm. I think that gold is an investment that will reward the patience of the owner. We do not have a shortterm directional view, but the reason we own gold is it is inherently resilient, both from a supply and demand standpoint. The fact it is scarce means there is less growth than whether dollars outstanding. It does not have the yield, but it will increase over time. From a demand standpoint, to the extent that most people who get gold buy it at store value and it tends to go up when the economy and real Interest Rates<\/a> go down. So at acts as a potential hedge. It has been a good storer of real value and overtime has had its best performance in times of distress, that makes it useful. It has a strengthened of late. It has broken out of a fiveyear range of 10501350. Whether or not it goes higher in the shortterm, we do not know. If all this is stimulus we are hearing about, the devilish fed and ecb results in Stronger Economic<\/a> growth, who knives who knows, it could be bad for gold. Portfolio 70 of our in equities and we want an asset that can serve as a hedge. Vonnie ok, nice. Matthew, thank you for joining us. We will have more time next time. The ubs a ceo is sounding the alarm as well monetary easing, just as policymakers are poised to deliver another round of qe. Us ons ceos spoke with why he believes that there will be dangerous asset bubble. Thatam not very convinced the medicine that has been prescribed in the past of just quantitative easing is of problems in europe. We need to go to a more indepth analysis of the steps necessary to create systemic sustainable growth. To we need to have reforms a various levels, political and Economic Reforms<\/a> in europe. The Central Bank Policy<\/a> can only help in a transition, it is not the solution of the problems. I would be very careful about having, you know, basically growing further the Balance Sheet<\/a> of central banks, particularly when they go into andtbased that are at risk we are at the risk of creating an asset bubble. Im not sure i would follow that route. When you look at markets, we have high yields and quoted equity. All of the quoted markets have had a pretty spectacular first half. Do you concern yourself that we are heading toward bubble territory and some of these markets . I think that you can see it in the Second Quarter<\/a>, yes asset prices went up. But it is not correlated with investor sentiment, which is of course a very dangerous development. Things that weod observe is cash balances with clients is very high. What they say is they are willing to step into the market, if there is a major correction. Levels, thosehigh are not necessarily correlated with investor sentiment. 0 on theout going to jp morgan note . Can you talk about the consequences for markets if we move toward that in the u. S. . I am not so sure the issue is really what are the consequences for markets, what are the consequent as for the broader economy for savings and particularly the social system . I think that in the u. S. They will watch carefully what happened in other parts of the world window rates went when the rates went to zero. It is very difficult to get out from and collateral damages are very high. So i hope the u. S. Will not follow that. If there is a deal between china and the u. S. , does that turn the key for risk with clients . I think that the chinau. S. Trade tensions is one of the factors keeping clients on the sidelines. I think that we need to have a more comprehensive resolution of many aspects. Ceo speakingbs with the bloomberg earlier today. To newup, snap gets bulls on its side. But will the Second Quarter<\/a> spell midnight for the tech cinderella story . That is next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Snap reported Second Quarter<\/a> earnings today and wall street will be looking for reassurance further optimistic view on the social media company. Bulls jumpingnew on the bandwagon, bahai expectations may end up being more harm than help. Sarah frier joins us from San Francisco<\/a> with what to expect. Why should we expect something great out of q2, what did they release and that wouldve ignited the imagination . Sarah the biggest thing analysts are looking at this quarter is this is the quarter where the android rollout they have had problems with the Android Application<\/a> and are they redesigned the whole thing and they finally rolled it out worldwide, so that is supposed to help them gain users, especially in those markets outside of the u. S. The other thing is maybe it is too late, because instagram has already gone into their territories with instagram stories, which is a lot like snap. But snap hopes its creativity and what it builds in its content and filters it will draw people back. Vonnie what about monetizing that . If it is better content, can they charge more or get more per user . Sarah i think the content has to be a big draw, that is where they make most of their money, on the content side. Most users however are using it for messaging. They have not built out there advertising on messaging yet, but they are really depending on creativity and in this quarter we might see a boost from the gender bender filter on the snap application. I do not know if you saw that go viral, the one where you could turn yourself into a different gender, that really brought people to the app and reminded them how fun it can be. It will be interesting to see if that had an impact on the user growth, which is really what is going to be key to growing the revenue and profit. Vonnie all of these innovations, you know, the face swap filter and is so on, when they bring people, do those people stay or do they just come for the show then leave again . Sarah it is hard to keep innovating as a means of drawing in new users. You look at other social Media Companies<\/a> like facebook, which have really grown based on the strength of their networks, and stayhas basically tried to a step ahead of facebook in terms of the fun factor, like getting people to feel like coming to snapchat will be more entertaining. Which is possibly true, but if you do not have all of your friends there you may not keep coming back. It is a little bit of a risky strategy to depend on that content and the fun filters to keep making things go viral and keep getting people to be drawn back to snapchat. Vonnie sarah frier, thank you. The stock is up 3. 3 in anticipation of those earnings. Sarah is in San Francisco<\/a> today. Still ahead, trade wars continue, but is globalization dying . We will discuss, next. As Boris Johnson<\/a> is set to take over as the new Prime Minister<\/a>, these are his comments on brexit and how they have panned out. The problem is not that we failed to make the case for a freetrade agreement of the kind spelled out at lancaster house, we have not even tried. We should junk the backstop. Do not rule out new deal. After three years and two missed deadlines, we must leave the European Union<\/a> on october 31. I am the right man to unleash now on the project. It is vital that we get ready to come out without an agreement. Any further delay will end up eroding the politics that we have. We have an opportunity to come out with a better deal. We need to get brexit done. We know the mantra of the campaign that has just gone by. And in case you forgot, you probably have it is deliver brexit, unite the country and defeat Jeremy Corbyn<\/a>. The campaign is over and the work begins. Vonnie President Trump<\/a> assault on globalization has given rise to forecasts of its demise. Is it dying or evolving . Sean, what is the verdict . Where are we in the state of globalization . I think that donald trump and his arrival on the scene a couple years ago provoked these fears that we were seeing the end of globalization, but i think the answer is globalization is still in route health, it just looks different. A lot of it has to do with the metrics that we used to measure globalization. We often think about shipping containers when we think about trade and globalization. These days we should think about data and how they flow around the world, and the reality is that even as goods trade has a slow down in the past couple years, the flow of data is soaring. Vonnie we have a chart showing that. The terabytes per second is literally an exorbitant amount of data, and will likely continue to go higher. Therefore, those who worry about globalizations demise, should they be worried about these trade wars . If globalization does not necessarily mean trade of goods and services now, why worry . The answer is businesses have a lot at stake. And if there is still a lot of trade that happens in the world and the trade wars are still a big cost raiser, the tariffs supplyd they will affect chains and how they do business around the world. So there is reason to worry, but i think what we are arguing here is that globalization is not just the trade in physical goods, it is so much more. Therefore, we should think about the whole of the being and not just one part. Vonnie it is a fascinating piece and i would urge everybody to pick up a copy of Bloomberg Businessweek<\/a> and read it and send us comments. Shawn in washington, thank you for joining us. A check of the markets. We have some gains for u. S. Stocks on earnings. The dow is up three tents of 1 . The nasdaq is up less than 2 10 of 1 . The dollar is stronger today, primarily on a weaker euro and sterling. This is bloomberg. Hey im bill slowsky jr. , i live on my own now ive got xfinity, because i like to live life in the fast lane. Unlike my parents. You rambling about xfinity again . Youre so cute when you get excited. Anyways. Ive got their app right here, i can troubleshoot. I can schedule a time for them to call me back, its great you have our number programmed in . Ya i dont even know your phone anymore. Excuse me . what . I dont know your phone number. Aw well. He doesnt know our phone number you have our fax number, obviously. Todays xfinity service. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Ill pass. Mark im Mark Crumpton<\/a> with bloombergs first word news. Johnson addressed conservative members of the parliament after he was elected the new Prime Minister<\/a> today. Johnson is preparing to take over as you keep Prime Minister<\/a> on wednesday it is facing a new civil war inside of the party of her brexit. He will have over three months to make good on his promise to leave the u. K. Out of the lead the u. K. Out of the European Union<\/a> by october 31. Moment inthis pivotal our history, we again have to consult two noble sets of instinct between the desire of mutual support it security and defense between britain and our european partners, and the simultaneous desire, equally deep and heartfelt, for democratic selfgovernance. Mark johnson won two thirds of the vote across the u. K. He will become Prime Minister<\/a> once Queen Elizabeth<\/a> formally asks them to form a government replacing theresa may. Federal safety officials in the to. Say that the period implement a system that was delayed seven times in the past decade contributed to a deadly wreck in South Carolina<\/a> last year. The fed very 2018 crash near columbia South Carolina<\/a> killed two amtrak crew members and injured 100 passengers. The National Transportation<\/a> safety board today pointed the theer at csx, saying company did not have the proper safety measures. In portugal, firefighters have brought a huge wildfire under control. The blaze burned for four days and injured dozens of people. About 1000 firefighters are still on the scene, watching over the smoldering hotspots because of the gusty wind and temperatures that have topped 100 degrees. Lawyers for Jeffrey Epstein<\/a> are still trying to get him released on bail. His attorneys are appealing a judges ruling that the financier is a danger to the community into flight risk. They are asking he be allowed to stay in his 77 million new york city mansion while he awaits trial. Prosecutors say that he poses a danger to passive victims and potential future ones. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton<\/a>. This is bloomberg. From bloomberg World Headquarters<\/a>, im shery ahn. Amber and live from toronto, im amber kammer, in for amanda lang. Welcome to bloomberg markets. We are joined by both audiences. Vonnie here are the top stories we are following. Shery Boris Johnson<\/a> is quickly ruling out an early general election, while vowing to complete brexit by october as he gets ready to take over as the u. K. Prime minister. And alexa, find me a house. Amazon is partnering with real estate. The u. S. Senate is getting in the weeds. Cannabis is in the spotlight today as a some consider a potted banking bill. Pot banking bill. Amber lets get a check on the major averages. We are broadly positive on most of the industries for a second day in the road. 30 companies row. 30 companies are reporting today. On average, they have been beating expectations by around 6. 5 , higher than the three year average. And it certainly that is the Guiding Light<\/a> for a number of these industries. I cannot remember the last time i said this when talking about what is driving the dow jones, shares of cocacola trading at a record high. Very astonishing when you consider the fact that it is a centuryold company just now getting to that record high territory, driven in part by the fact that it is selling more beverages that have less sugar in them. Asia was a big part of that story. Despite headwinds from a strong u. S. Dollar, they are boosting their outlook for organic growth. Something i am sure that Warren Buffett<\/a> is very pleased about, first investing in 1988, 1 billion into the company, now worth 22 billion. He famously said he has about five cooks a day. Cokes a day. So he is doing his part. Bed, breaking news from bath and beyond. They are eliminating their coo r ole and cutting corporate jobs. 2019just reiterated their guidance at the lower end of the range, and we are now getting the latest news that the company roleiminating their coo and cutting 7 of corporate jobs. You can see the stock is falling by 9 10 of 1 . Other big news today has been the u. K. Having a new Prime Minister<\/a>. Boris johnson, the public face of the Brexit Campaign<\/a> and the former mayor of london won the race to succeed theresa may as the leader of the conservative party. This after six weeks, johnson defeating jeremy hunt by a landslide. Guy johnson joins us from westminster with the story. Not really a surprise, but it could spell a new phase in the civil where war within the government, especially with the brexit deadline coming. Johnson has a set a deadline for october 31, so 100 days to deliver on brexit. The big question is whether or not it will be with a deal with the European Union<\/a>, or without ideal, with the u. K. Crashing out of the eu. That is the question Boris Johnson<\/a> must answer. As you say, he faces a divided party. He faces a divided country. He has a majority of two right now and that is likely to fall. I spoke with one commentator earlier, he put it like this it is like landing a jumbo jet in the jungle on one of those tiny little runways. Incredibly difficult needle to thread. Shery whether or not he will be able to form a government and pass legislation, what is the probability that Boris Johnson<\/a> is the one that takes the government to october 31 and we will not see a general election beforehand . Guy i thing it is unlikely. From what he has told conservative mps, that is not going to happen. He does not want a general election. But that may not be in his fate. Today, Boris Johnson<\/a> won the conservative Party Leadership<\/a>. Tomorrow, he will become Prime Minister<\/a>. The day after that, parliament behind me goes into recess. So it will be quite a long time. We have a little bit of a cushion coming up, but when we come back with parliament there is the possibility that we will see a vote of noconfidence. The majority is likely to be very small. Labour is saying they will not do it in the next couple days, but they could do it after the recess. We might see a general election before october 31, but Boris Johnson<\/a> would like it after that deadline, because then he is able to deal with some of the parties, the brexit party, and you will be able to deal with the liberal democrats, which are growing strong at the moment you and opposeit brexit. So he would like to see that happening after brexit. Shery how much of a personal victory is it for Boris Johnson<\/a> . It ist is going to be a victory of sorts. Boris johnson has always wanted to be Prime Minister<\/a>. And to a certain extent he has now got that. How long he holds onto it will be difficult. The mask hasys, not changed, the political escape has not changed. From what theresa may has been able to achieve to what he has been able to achieve. There is a sense he can deliver on brexit and beat Jeremy Corbyn<\/a> in an election, but he faces a huge number of challenges. And you have external challenges in the form of iran. There is a lot in his inbox. He is coming into a difficult situation. Shery guy johnson, thank you. For more insight on what comes next in the u. K. , we are welcoming Danny Blanchflower<\/a>, a current economics professor at dartmouth. He joins us from burlington, vermont. It is always good to have you. Again, a brexit story. We have more news, a landslide victory for Boris Johnson<\/a>. He quickly rolled out an early general election. But even with the dup on board they would have a small majority in the house, so can we expect a general election anytime soon . Prof. Blanchflower i think it is very much on the table. It is not really in his immediacy. But it will be imposed upon him likely because he will not be able to get a majority in the house of commons, so that will inevitably generate a general election. The question is, could he when it . It is not clear he could. A majority of two is very fragile. There is even talk that six of his own mps may be going to the liberal democrats. So this is a very big day for Boris Johnson<\/a>. He looks like he is going to be Prime Minister<\/a>. It may be for a very short time. But the problems really start to come in very quickly. There is the issue of iran, but the big deal as well as the economy is slowing down and the chancellor appears to be resigning tomorrow, and we will lose the bank of england governor at the end of the year. So the economy will be a big deal. And also dealing with ireland. These are huge issues and and nothing has changed. Remember, theresa may tried to get her deal through Parliament Three<\/a> times and failed. It is unclear that boris will be able to improve upon that. So this is just one battle in a major war, and we will see. I suspect he will not be Prime Minister<\/a> for long. Mentioned, there has been a constant headwind. Mark carney at the bank of england, he is set to step aside a january 2020. So what is your best guess of who will fill that role, and the role that Monetary Policy<\/a> will not play amid all this uncertainty . Prof. Blanchflower good question. Obviously, there are two issues do . Hat can Monetary Policy<\/a> a little bit, because Interest Rates<\/a> are up. It will need a fiscal response. Andy new governor will be crucial, as is a new chancellor. Ing istest bedding bett actually that the chief economist for Maurice Johnson<\/a> when he was mayor, will take over. He wrote a very calming oped yesterday in the financial times, saying it was time to calm and for fiscal and Monetary Policy<\/a> to come together. , essentially, Boris Johnson<\/a> will decide who that will be. That is a big deal. The question is, does he have a background in Monetary Policy<\/a> . He doesnt. He has not conducted Monetary Policy<\/a>, but he has something going for him Boris Johnson<\/a> likes him. He and i were graduate students together. He is a smart guy, but i think it will be crucial. Monetary policy speaks to fiscal policy, but no chancellor or governor for the bank of england, they will all change in the next few months and the evidence today is slowing into the imf said today that Global Growth<\/a> will go down and one of the reasons is brexit. So this is a global phenomenon and brexit is a big deal. But i do not see anything improving quickly as the u. K. Appears to be going into a recession. Shery at least President Trump<\/a> is happy with the outcome, congratulating Boris Johnson<\/a>, saying he will be great. Does that mean the relationship between the two countries will change in a dramatic way . Prof. Blanchflower i think that he called him great britains trump. Clearly, they like each other, they knew each other and are both populists. And donald trump has talked about Boris Johnson<\/a>s ability to deliver. That will be the question, will he deliver on brexit . Will he hold onto a majority in the house of commons . That is not clear. And what will he do about the economy . If the economy slips into a recession, that will be a big deal. The answer is these two people like each other, and that is a good thing, but he has issues to deal with. Guy spoke about it earlier, the issue of takers being held by iran, that is a big issue that you will have to confront. But we will see. The ability to deliver will not be in his hands, it will be in other peoples hands. And that there will probably be a vote of noconfidence in his government within for five weeks, when the parliament returns. ,hery ok, Danny Blanchflower<\/a> thank you. Breaking news at the moment. We are now seeing u. S. Negotiators going to china on monday for facetoface negotiations. People familiar with the matter are telling bloomberg that the u. S. Team will be in shanghai through wednesday. Usually, they negotiate in beijing, but this time they are going to shanghai. This was expected. We had heard of that secretary mnuchin and ambassador lighthizer were holding talks with their counterparts. We have seen more favorable coverage of the talks from Chinese State<\/a> media, talking about the potential buying of agricultural goods from the u. S. Also, we saw some developments with the white house, in the white house, with Tech Companies<\/a> yesterday talking about the huawei. F or for shanghairs will go to through wednesday, according to people familiar with the matter. 500,w big jumps on the s p up 6 10 of 1 at the moment. This is bloomberg. Shery amber this is bloomberg markets. The u. S. Senate Banking Committee<\/a> is meeting today on banking in cannabis. Analysts will be watching to see how receptive congress will be in terms of enabling Financial Services<\/a> further pot companies. Many companies are forced to operate on an all cash basis because of a fear of federal sanctions. We will bring in neil, who has led several funding funding rounds on a number of marijuana deals. Thank you for being with us. From the companies that you see that are operating on the ground in the united states, how much of a challenge is it to be unbaked . Unbanked . It is a challenge, all of their business has to be on a cash basis. And so you can imagine in an er where we have virtual commerce, trying to run a business where everything must be done on a cash only basis. In addition, it means is that it is difficult to raise money. These companies cannot list on u. S. Exchanges today, that is why we see some of the top 10 u. S. Companies listed on canadian exchanges. That has a ripple on affect, because it means money is not going into research and development. Pot has been legal for many years, and we have benefited from investment in r d, particularly as it relates to pain relief and opioid replacement, which was something that Trump Administration<\/a> said it was a priority for them when they came in. But in the u. S. , that research is virtually nonexistent, so it represents a challenge on many levels. Amber this is a serious attempt by congress if this is a serious attempt by congress to fix the issues, how could that work for your company as you see more u. S. Banks jumping into the industry . Neil we took canopy public. It was the First Company<\/a> to go public in this space over five years ago. So we are seeing all the big u. S. Firms trying to come into the space, but they are five years behind. And it is a very come of and it is a very tricky space, so while we see them coming in the space particularly in mna, we are not m a, we are not seeing them make the inroads we have in other sectors, because they are five years behind. Bankers, most as of our senior people have been around for 30 years, we have done over 250 billion in transaction value in m a. And we are not seeing the big firms have an impact on our business, because they do not have the experience. Amber if there is a clearing of the hurdles when it comes to banking, do you think it is a if, that when, not ultimately the u. S. Is moving toward a path were all these things will get moved out . Neil we think so. We were advisors on the canopy anchorage transaction and they agree to spend over 300 million, really to buy optionality on anchorage. That many will go for not if the rules do not change in the next 7. 5 years. If the rules do not change in the next 7. 5 years. Clearly they have a view in doing that transaction, that it will change, but you are hearing different voices in congress. Mitch mcconnell has recently come out having supported the farm act, to say that no, he will not support the safe banking act. E thought washat th earlier this year, that things would change. I think that the reception was met with recent legislation that has gone through congress and the senate with question marks. Amber thank you for joining us. And of course, we just had the breaking news, u. S. Negotiators going to china for facetoface talks. Shery they will be in shanghai through wednesday. The s p 500 now trading at session highs, up. 5 . We will have plenty more on that. This is bloomberg. Shery we are turning to the breaking news we had moments ago. U. S. Negotiators will go to china on monday for facetoface trade talks. Shawn joins us from washington. It is interesting that this will take place in shanghai and not beijing. Shawn we are told that the Chinese Government<\/a> requested that it be in shanghai, rather than beijing. We do not know the reasons behind that, but it is a change of venue so the worlds attention will be shifting to shanghai next week. Amber what will they talk about, what is at the top of the agenda . Shawn the big point is that this will be a fairly short visit. This is not going to be a deep dive negotiation around. It is going to be a kind of surveying of the issues that are outstanding, we are told. Of thed of a plotting path back to more serious negotiations. That has been the story since the leaders met in osaka. Donald trump and xi jinping ordered negotiators to find a path to restart talks. We have seen that here in the u. S. Manifested via the moves on huawei and the meeting yesterday at the white house with tech executives and is steven mnuchin, Robert Lighthizer<\/a> and other senior officials. On the chinese side, there is anticipation in washington that they are about to resume some serious agricultural purchases as their own gesture of goodwill. Things broke down in may and they got acrimonious. There is a lot of mistrust still in the bloodstream. So we want to get back on track. Amber the markets are optimistic at this moment. Thank you, shawn. If you missed any of this, you can catch all of the charts on gtv. This is bloomberg. I am Mark Crumpton<\/a> with bloombergs first word news. Facetoface talks between the u. S. And china will take place next week. Bloomberg has learned that u. S. Trade representative Robert Lighthizer<\/a> and other officials will travel to china monday for the first highlevel trade negotiations between the two nations since talks broke down in may. President trump and chinese president xi jinping met at the g 20 summit in japan last month, and declared a tentative truce in their yearlong trade war. Meantime fbi director rest of her rate told senators today that china is trying to steal economic dominance. Rector ray told the senate dir senateold the Investigation Committee<\/a> that there more than a thousand investigations underway, almost all leading back to china. He added that no country poses a more severe counterintelligence threat to the united states. China denies the claims and said they are just tools in the trade war. World leaders from President Trump<\/a> to your teen Commission Two<\/a> european president elect to have congratulated Boris Johnson<\/a> he won the campaign for conservative Party Leadership<\/a> and is","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"archive.org","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","width":"800","height":"600","url":"\/\/ia801005.us.archive.org\/12\/items\/BLOOMBERG_20190723_170000_Bloomberg_Markets_Americas\/BLOOMBERG_20190723_170000_Bloomberg_Markets_Americas.thumbs\/BLOOMBERG_20190723_170000_Bloomberg_Markets_Americas_000001.jpg"}},"autauthor":{"@type":"Organization"},"author":{"sameAs":"archive.org","name":"archive.org"}}],"coverageEndTime":"20240716T12:35:10+00:00"}