Action with abigail. Abigail lets stick with this roller coaster theme and ask the question did amazon have a capitulation bottom . Overnight, the futures were actually higher, then down, down, down, almost down to present as you all were talking about earlier today, then up, almost. 1 31 of the most bullish reversals since 2017, that big selloff. S p 500 andbout the perspective on the 50day moving average. Started lasttility winter, we saw the best case for the s p 500 to weave up and down around the 60day moving average. Lots of volatility, however, in the fourth quarter, sharply lower. This does not look like a capitulation bottom, joe, i will toss it back to you. Joe great chart. Thank you ray much am abigail. Still with us, tom lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors and Gina Martin Adams of bloomberg intelligence. Whether it is the september fed decision or the trade war front or anything else, what would you like to see, or is there anything particular you need to see that will help you feel confident . Tom um, well markets like certainty. Ck a do not like lika visibility castle a clearly communicated stance by the fed lack of visibility, so it clearly communicative stance by the fed. And on the trade network, a nonescalation would be good. It would be great to have a deescalation, but it is unpredictable. I still feel very confident about equity markets. I think u. S. Consumers are going in. I think there is still a benefit to lower rights both for consumers and businesses. I kind of see a secondhalf rally, but it would be nice to have some visibility. Scarlet you mentioned earlier how semiconductors may indicate us, the worst has passed and it may be behind us, so do you want to be in semiconductors . Where do you want to be exposed . Tom the most contrarian thing you can make, and this is our call at fundstrat, is there is a cyclical comment, starting in the fall. If you look at the 30year by the 10year, it has led the isn by 16 months. April, it would dive below 50 by the calls this year. We have been using the same analysis for two years now, and now it is. Pointing to a huge acceleration it is partly it is pointing to a huge acceleration. Buts partly due to semis, the most nonconsensus thing to do is to make a cyclical trade here. That is what we intend to do in the fall. Caroline and gina, the question now is where to go . The volumes are pretty significant today, up 32 on the s p 500. Cashere still a lot of left, is there enough a lot on the sidelines . Gina there has been an escalating amount of cash on the sidelines, so it is tough to call that for any reason on any given day, but i do think the evidence of a remarkable turnaround today would suggest that you did get to a level that struck some interests on the part of the investor community. Where was the interest . Your biggest gainers in the s p were still on the defensive side, consumer staples, the real estate companies, the beneficiaries of lower rates are still the default sector. I do think within tech, semi has showns a lot of life this year. Clearly a bloated hiding in the Software Services names, which are the strongest names, but the opportunities are names,t cyclical so it is kind of a mixed story, and there is still a very big consensus, defensive trade that is drawing capital. Joe i want to go to this chart, tom, that you just mentioned, if i can pull it up. We talk all the time about the 210 spread or the 310 spread. This is one part of the curve that is not flattening. It is actually steepening. You say it has important signals. What is the intuition behind it . Corethere are actually two reasons. The coalition between the 10year and the 30year is 0, where is over the fiveyear, 10year, it is 30 . If you look at Business Cycle metrics, and you take a gap accounting look i am a former accountant capital items like purchases of buildings, already well, not really already, but longterm spending has averaged r d, well, notor an really r d, but longterm spending has averaged. Caroline thirdquarter 13 million. Basically exceeding across the board that there is a smaller, less than anticipated fiscal secondquarter and we are seeing better than expected growth in terms of revenue. We are up 10 percentage points. Ipoere only 10 off the price, but now we are starting to gain traction, finally, and see some sustained levels above that. Scarlet and the fact that these are encouraging results leaves us some to believe that uber will come out with positive results. Were down and uber about 10 below their ipo price. Is that enough to turn around sentiment for the good and we will not get these violent drawdowns . Gina i think it could help, but i would not go so far as to say that those two companies are so representative of the broader economy or the issue that the market is contending with that they could give a huge, bullish response in equities. Instead, it probably comes down to the cross of the issue, which is trade, and u. S. China trade relations, which continues to hammer the markets in fits and starts. I think instead if you get some sort of signs of stability emerging out of china, if you get some sort of incremental even progress on trade, those are parts of the bigger catalysts, but consumers coming out next week could also be decent catalysts. We also talk about leaning on source. Strength as a sort of support, but Consumer Companies show signs of life, that could help as well. Caroline i want to get your on some as her assets, i know you talked about digital gold, but gold itself seems to be a trade that is unwavering. Tom yeah, actually gold is really surprising this year. Even on a cpiadjusted basis, it looks like it wants to get to an alltime high, so it is really bullish for those who want to own real assets that are sort of a hedge against things i could go wrong, so interestingly, of course, it has been positive toward digital gold as well. Caroline a little bit lagging on gold today. Of fundstratm lee Global Advisors and Gina Martin Adams a bloomberg intelligence, good analysis. Scarlet we have breaking news out of iac interactive, it is considering giving up control of mash and Angie Home Services as it is continuing to streamline. That iacevin says may ultimately decide not to do anything about this as well. You can see the stock trading at the moment marginally higher up. 1 . Increase in the revenue shows it is much better than having been expected. And their losses better than anticipated. Joe and uber up 5 . People are making the obvious reapproved for that. Scarlet we will continue to follow that. That will do it for the closing bell and for me. Romaine bostick is stepping in. This is bloomberg. Caroline welcome back from bloomberg headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. Romaine i am romaine bostick. Joe and i am joe weisenthal. The question is whatd you miss . Caroline Central Banks shocked with cuts. Chorus ofjoined the voices warning that u. S. Treasury yields may eventually go negative. We will speak with them pimcos Global Economic advisor joachim fels. Lets get straight to lyft, because we see much better than anticipated numbers. The rating for to record this was 95 . Be asss for the year will much as 875 million dollars, a 300 million decrease. Moving less money this year than 2018. Is that impacting share profits . Romaine yeah, caroline. This is a Big Media Company controlled by barry diller. This is according to a letter from shareholder and chief executive joey levin, saying they are considering spinning off subsidiaries, but that they also may do nothing. And on the flipside, monster beverage is some of the maker of those highly caffeinated cans of drinks, getting slammed. They missed on both revenue and eps. Shares missed estimates. They have been on a tremendous tear over the years, just not today. FromCentral Banks, wellington to bangkok, make cuts, looking to safeguard their nds. Omy from global headwi jerome v Research Production center, while Alicia Levine of bny mellon says global slowdown in rates are needed. They both join us with the outlooks. Great to have you. Should we start with negative rates i from the fed, asia, i am sure there will be a bunch more in the coming days and weeks ahead. Is it going to do anything . No, it is very positive to the extent that they protect and support the market. That is the key thing here. What is critical is how they support the market. And to the extent that they support the market and financial conditions, the slowdown in deviations that go on, and we slowdowndecember the the economic deterioration that goes on, and you saw last december that the market went on, the reaction in december and january. Romaine when we were told it would follow the cliff and armageddon was coming, when you look back over the last couple of years, is it as bad as it seems today . Alicia the u. S. Economy is doing well enough, in the 2. 5 range, which is actually pretty positive for risk assets. I will say this. The trade war that started a very slowlyalf ago, started to hit the Manufacturing Sector while the Services Sector held up and the Consumer Sector held up. What you are starting to see here is that is starting to bounce into the Services Sector, ad it is true but if we get 10 correction in the equity market, we will see some downtown in the retail space, sales, and consumption, but again, it is transitory. It was transitory before, and it can be transitory again. The market andto really trying to digest what the half forward is for the growth and the trade war. We aree but srinivas, looking at flat yield curves, flattest since 2007 in the u. S. What is it that the bond market sees, and how long can this on this a unprecedented time contie with these negative rates . Srinivas that is a fair point. If you look globally, you have Balance Sheets and assess very huge in relation to the actual economic activity, nominal gdp, and this is scaling to assess, which means by definition, they have slowed. Yields are low. They are there to fall in a big recession, or they can have negative yields. U. S. Assets are not going to earn their keep. I mean, one or the other. That is basically the point. Joe alicia, from your perspective, we look at fixed income, and jaws drop, some of them come up where is there anything special about negative rates, or do we keep going deeper and deeper more negative . Alicia i see it as scary, and you are not going to keep the economy going, and murdering the banking sector, i think germany is going to be first to have a fiscal policy caroline finally alicia and actually can change the whole risk sentiment of the entire markets. You have to get rid of this position. I do worry about rates in the u. S. There is no reason to cut 100 basis points by the end of the year. Our economy does not warrant that. At some point, the fed is going to have to confront the market , because you cannot go into the next recession with no ammunition. Romaine right. This brings up a good point. Why are we so afraid of a market cycle ending . This idea that you have to keep cycle,ing, market Economic Cycle going, there seems to be a fear of allowing the markets to correct, reset, and go over the next great thing. Srinivas well, they hurt the poorest people the most. Long, so they 40 ly hurt the bottom 30 , the most, so they are very painful, and they have longlasting effects. Romaine the recessions were not necessarily as painful. Srinivas back then, people used to shut down the factory for six weeks, there were no permanent layoffs back then, so they were very different. This is very different from those. The last three recessions we had, we had extended jobless recovery, and it took a long time for unemployment to come down. Manufacturinghave on services, you are worrying what the bull market, and are you keeping a close eye on in terms of market shows that we have less, is it the stoxx, is a chance stocks, is it chips . Alicia heavy trades have been the bond market. It was nothing surprising on a tactical basis. The ceo from below three years ago of 135 on the shortterm, but having said that, the compression on yields on a 10year is a bit out of control of either the fed or anything happening in the u. S. Economy, and it is resulting in the fact that we have 14. 5 trillion of negative yield in debt, and this is the only way to go. I think that ultimately there will be some sort of calming down of the trade rhetoric, and we have already seen china be very clear about where we are setting the exchange rate, so not to deviate too far from the set number, and i think the voices coming out of the administration appeared to suggest that there is a path forward. That does not mean we need a trade deal to get this going, it just means we need to not have. 5 on the next 325 billion on in points. Joe srinivas, alicia said something important, who knows when the stimulus is going to come because of politics. Is there anything out there besides that lever . Srinivas in china, there is a massive joe but does that change the equation in the Global Economy . Do they still have the power to do that . Srinivas they have the power always. They controlled the domestic money supply. They can do it. They can do a lot of things. Of course, they are closer to rope than they were three years ago, but certainly they are not at the end of the rope. Romaine all right, we will have to leave it there. Always great to get your perspective, Alicia Levine of bny mellon and srinivas th iruvadanthai of jerome levy forecasting. After hours, that he number to keep an eye on his underwriting process of 147 million. Remember, this is the Second Quarter that we have seen that actually rebound, a lot of changes being made, and we see that number on the bottom line. Is right, coming up, lyft hitting the gas on a new season with a beat. Shares moving higher in after hours trading. We will talk more about that after the break. This is bloomberg. Omberg. Caroline shares of lyft fare higher after a secondquarter loss and sales letter better than analysts expected. Lets bring in eric, our Bloomberg News reporter. At one point, they were up 10 , getting the ipo prices. We are delving into in ak and other releases coming out of lyft, perhaps a change to the early lockup in their shares, but leaving that to one side, the overall numbers good. Lyft certainly wants to say it is moving past profitability, the adjusted loss numbers are better than expected. What is key here is that lyft is saying we think our annual numbers are going to be, you ofw, in some cases hundreds millions of dollars better than expected, so they are sort of improving their forecast, and they beat analysts expectations. Romaine what about raising prices . We know they were trying to change the prices a little bit to favor them a little bit more. Eric i spoke with the cfo, and tookid fare increases place in june. I think this is more about sort of just the segment of the business increasing riders and revenue per ride, and it will be interesting to see on q3 how the fare increase plays out. Joe it is interesting, lyft and hoover up the same amount, 5 on both. Is there any reason to assume whatever is working for lyft it is not they erase all their doing that they are marginally better than they can also battle out uber . Eric right, a lot of the markets have stopped competing with each other, discuss and coupons are killing the businesses, and if they stop, it will be good for both of them. What is the Market Opportunity with higher prices . But for now, yeah, it totally makes sense that a they are correlated. It is not a market share change, it is the in thing of the price war. Caroline it is all about other things than the ridehailing business with uber, whereas lyft is very much ridehailing. Eric yes, from the beginning, lyft has had the message of focus, and ridehailing is the focus in the United States. Uber has had a much more global appeal. People are trying to figure out, does ridehailing work . Both stocks are very tied into that question. Romaine and does it matter when one is planning to replace them . Eric i do not think the market is reacting to that. It has always been a founder dominated company. Their cfo has been there for a long time. I think the company is just moving forward. Caroline eric newcomer, great to get your analysis. You will be busy today and tomorrow. Coming up in our next guest says u. S. Treasury yields can go dangerous. Ls, pimcooachim fe managing director and Global Economic advisor, joining us with that call. This is bloomberg. Call. This is bloomberg. Mark i am Mark Crumpton with first word news. I had of President Trumps visit to dayton, ohio, the site of one of two Mass Shootings this weekend, protesters line up outside at the hospital when many victims are being treated. They wanted he president to know he was not welcome in the city. The white house said the president was there to think First Responders and hospital staff as well as to meet with victims and their families. Later, the president will visit the site of the second mass shooting last weekend. Baltimore democratic congressman, elijah cummings, says government officials must stop making what he described as incendiary comments that only serve to divide and distract the nation from its real problems, including Mass Shootings and white supremacy. He made the comments during an appearance at the National Press club in washington. He did not mention President Trump by name, but it appeared clear who he was addressing. Country, we finally must say that enough is enough. That we are done with the hateful rhetoric, that we are done with the Mass Shootings, that we are done with the white supremacist domestic terrorists who are terrorizing our country and fighting against everything america stands for and everything our phenomenal military has fought for. Chairmant month, cummings and his