Disperse the crowds. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Is 1 00 p. M. In new york. I am vonnie quinn. Welcome to bloomberg markets. Vonnie from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, here are the top stories. Attacks disrupted five percent of the world oil production. We will talk to the opec secretary general on how the organization might respond. Wall street has been in pay slump since the financial crisis. We will tell you who has had the sharpest pay decline. Retail in an hour an era of delayed exit. We will talk to the cofounder birch box. First, kailey leinz is with us. We are halfway into the trading day. We are getting a little redder as we go through the day. Three major averages are near to the low of the sessions. The dow, the s p 500, and the nasdaq are off play for tense of vonnie this is bloomberg a percent or more. This is geopolitical risks markets. Percolate through the market. The largest u. S. Banks are more it does have the Energy Stocks higher. Profitable than ever with big by s p 500 energy index up help from tax cuts strong consumer spender. 3. 3 . They are not super heavily it is not translating to bigger paychecks for employees. Weighted in the broader indices. Wall street and wall street as we know, Energy Stocks is in the midst of a pay slip. Energy stocks are moving higher because of the move in oil. Pay slump. There are some employees who you can see wti is up 14 . Have seen their paychecks rise. There are pockets for sure. Biggest jump on record because of ongoing risks after the saudi there has been a shift in turn strike in saudi arabia on employment and on wall street. Key facilities, crimping oil supply. Towards technology. People who help with technology, heightened geopolitical risk the programmers and other i. T. Also inspiring a rush into other folks. Safe haven assets. U. S. 10 year yield down about they definitely demand more. There is competition with tech six basis points. You are seeing a rush into other forms tech firms. Commodity. Cold up in seven cents. On the other hand, people we think of wall street the yen is strengthening against the dollar. Traditionally, traders, 1 10 of a percent. Analysts, they have seen their i want to take a look at some pay cut seriously in the last 12 other payers should some years. Vonnie what kind of percentages other pairs. Are we talking about . We can use the wcrs function to to 2018, almost 12 take a look. Big oilsee the ones for years, comparing the biggest exporters such as the russian ruble and the canadian dollar. Cuts are the biggest in goldman all stronger against the dollar. Down in the bottom, you have the sachs. Indian ruby. Almost two thirds. India is a big oil importer. 60 , 50 . Deutsche bank follows roughly it buys two thirds of its oil. With 40 . Those prices are having the the average is about 15 . Opposite effect on the indian ruby, which is lower than the that brings in banks that have dollar. Weaker by my intent by nine retail operations. Print of a percent. Where you can see the impact of what has happened with traders and bankers and less bankers you can see up top, Energy Stocks doing quite well, paychecks. Especially the e p companies. With those, you see 50 . Earth on oil as higher by nearly vonnie name names. Which banks are faring the 11 . Worst . Underperformers, you have the airline and crew stocks, which retaining the talent has to be a are sensitive. Factor. Goldman sachs has seen the higher prices are not good for biggest cut. These guys. That does not mean it is only american air down by 5 . Because of what traders and carnival down by 2. 8 . Bankers are getting paid. One analyst seeing a saying a it is also a shift in basement 10 spike could not . 24 off of in business goldman, five carnival earnings per share. Vonnie thank you for all of years ago, it was an investment that. Analysis, et bank. Now, they offer credit cards. They collect deposits online. From our market analysis, we are you can become a goldman. Oined by kevin divney depositor. You can have an account is a retail depositor. They have tried to become more the events of this weekend how did they impact how you are looking at the market . Of a regular retail bank they do kevin it is our test of energy not have offices around the country. Independence to see how much the they have added people who help market is saying the u. S. Can them with that kind of banking. There is a big change. Maintain its own production. It is about a global commodity credit sweeps the second one. Move. Much less about the impacts of they have shifted to Wealth Management from trading. The u. S. Economy. Given this 16 move in the they have located a lot of their back Office Functions to local crude, it would be a lot worse five or 10 years ago. Countries. Deutsche bank has been trying to it is a testament that the u. S. Cut costs. Independence is there. It is very fluid. Probably needs to do more. We do not know when the theyve also become more a production is going to come back online. Retail bank once they acquired the threat of these exhaustion us shocks the threat of the the postbank in germany, which is a big retail brand. Shocks is showing us they are there is a big retail shift. Still out there. Vonnie do Oil Prices Stay above not just traders and bankers 60 a barrel post this . Getting cuts. Ofo banks doing more off obviously, the security and retail banking. More technology. Energy independence was not trying to lower cost by finding enough to stop oil spiking. We have valero down five or 6 . People in india to do things for them. Vonnie always enlightening. A great story on the bloomberg today. If this continues, it will have of money,re the topic an impact on the consumer. Kevin our thesis going into this is there was global i have a new show to tell you about. Bloomberg money undercover. Economic deceleration. We just got numbers out of it is hosted by lisa abramowicz. China. There industrial activity continues to decline. The Weekly Program debuts we are putting Oil Prices Lower tomorrow at 1 00 p. M. New york time. They are today. The macro events will overwhelm it takes you can the world of private debt, equity, and real the commodity prices. That said, what you tend to see estate where investors are pouring money into private is the supply response to this. Markets at an unprecedented level. Be here tomorrow at this time. That is more of a longerterm thing. We are not changing our is a ahead, there longerterm macro views. The economy is growing worldwide. We are seeing deceleration subscription box for everything these days. Birchboxbscription outside the u. S. That is a bojo for a flat commodity price. Vonnie is the market under pioneer that idea nine years ago. Beaund cofounder katia appreciating the potential for champ joins us and. Escalation and war . This is bloomberg. Kevin we have an industry that is going out to the line and pulled back. We will three if that is carried out or not. Because of the infrastructure that is put into place, investors are looking for entry points. Some of the more value centric investors have had this overweight energy. That is benefiting. On the cash flow forecasting, i think the where probability is way down in the sicko digits especially after some of the administration in the Single Digits especially after some of the administration changes. Fed thise have the week can we breathe a sigh of relief . Kevin no, we are seeing the Capital Markets giving us a lot of intuition and insight. Clearly, we were talking about the yield curve and version a month ago. We saw Something Interesting in a rotation between value growth and momentum. A lot of investors are looking at this. Growth investing is outpaced value investing. In the last week, we have seen a six or seven standard deviation reversal. When you see these factors that explain Company Fundamentals rotate like that, it can mean is there a change in the future . Can be a canary in the coal mine. There have been times in august 2007 where that was the case. It was at the top of the market. In 2011, we have the same type of phenomena in the equity markets. We did not really get that. That is what investors are looking at. If value is working and how will treasury be investors are looking into that, it could mean we are bottoming different from other banks . What different what makes on the industrial side. We are bottoming on the pmi. You from others is that you are it has to be validated, which in every country in south asia. Will be in earnings seasons. We will have a fed announcement this week. We have the Capital Markets telling us what the future could be. Affirming or confirming what the vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Shortterm policy extrapolations it is time fear latest bloomberg are. Vonnie are you turning some of biggest flash the your oil exposure and getting dry powder ready for when this banker of the softbank patients happens . Kevin we were trying to get fund are having second thoughts. More of a neutral wave on much to commitow energy. To the next Investment Vehicle a day like today is a time you might want to pull that back. In the wake of the reworks fiasco. More because of the flat growth. Try to get that to a neutral a 47 billion valuation. They are told the Company Might feed. Be worth less than a third of that in an ipo. A day like today, you would prosecutors collect a massive multiyear racketeering not do a lot. Conspiracy run out of jp morgan. In extreme volatility, until they get trending again, they two current and one former Precious Metals traders are can be a mistake to trade on the going to be charged with when short term. Vonnie marathon is up 11. The billing futures markets. , russellney already brought charges against 15 others. Investments, senior portfolio they included traders of Deutsche Bank and ups ubs. Manager. Saudi aramco facing weeks or months before the majority that is your business flash. Supply is restored after the devastating aerial attack. The big business of beauty. Opec secretarygeneral says it face of thenge the is premature to talk about Beauty Industry with their whether other opec plus nations should increase production. Popular subscription box is nearly a decade ago. Now they are doing it all over again by teaming up with he talked exclusively to bloomberg. Walgreens. Integrating the prestige brands in order to remain dependent with the convenience of walgreens. For more on the partnership, we haveies of oil then nine year anniversary, lets welcome cofounder and ceo to secure our facilities and katia beauchamp. Operations. We have learned from the i know you were in the city for kingdom. We are going to use this the womens digital form. Everyone will want to hear about unfortunate experience to ensure the evolving phase of purity. Such an incident does not repeat itself. I does want to clarify, to youre are going into brickandmortar. Other opec nations need to we are 11 walgreens. Increase to make up for the lost inof we are going to be production we are seeing out of the kingdom . Whatever decision that will be taken will be a collective 100. That will be a big shift for us. Iton of not only opec we started selling subscriptions in 3000 walgreens this month. We are testing it in all different ways to sell subscriptions, fullsize is premature at the moment to product, and to understand what begin to contemplate on what that does to our customers will be done in Council Forum lifetime revenue. Vonnie is this the path forward and when. For other Digital Brands . We have seen it with you. What about what that United States is doing, capping the amazon is doing it now in a spr . Does that worry you and your small way. Do Digital Brands have to have a partners at opec plus . News that read in the brickandmortar retail . Are focused on a leaving is thinking of consumer who does not seek out beauty. M spr depending on the it is an everyday woman. It represents 70 of the market. Our hypothesis is going to where it is only if needed. The customer is his very valuable is very valuable to wait. L continue to grow our business. America n in there is no need to panic at the moment. Going there make sense. What we have seen in the markets can we acquire that customer . Today is an initial reaction. Do they also shop digital . Vonnie was there a point when forward, the updates that you realized this is the only way to increase margins . Why go into walgreens . Katia we are focused on a will be coming from saudi arabia will further harm the markets. Vonnie forward, o ebanks are mn massive scale. If it is 70 of the market and beauty is 90 offline, we want to create a destination for the everyday consumer. A consumer who is not obsessed with beauty. The only way to scale quickly is to think multichannel. Officially,go at it that is our core competency. Partnering someone who has that comedy expertise in rolling out and already has thousands of beauty consultants we can utilize to have a human experience. The humanity in it is a huge part of customer loyalty. Ultimately, a lifetime value. Vonnie who bears the cost . There is the risk of the walmart effect. You get so big and scale up so fast that your margins are squeezed to the minimum. Katia were looking at different expressions. Some of them are extremely lowcost. It takes take an existing beauty consultant and sell subscriptions. There is no incremental cost doing that. There is some integration on the backend. Definitely increasing productivity and justifying a boat up cost. Vonnie you have been private for nine years. You have seen the rework fiasco. Doneand lyft have not well. Is it better to delay an exit . Are you happy staying private . Katia it is exciting to be private. It is ultimately about liquidity and your risk tolerance. It is difficult to know what is happening in the market and what is the right time. Sometimes, it is about what your investors want. Vonnie what is your goal in that direction . Katia my objective is to could is to serve the consumer. If there is an ability to do that for a to do that as a private company, gives us the ability to be creative and keep our strategy under wraps should we have had 8 under wraps. We have had a public experience in birch box. The more we can do privately, the more we can feel creative. Vonnie i think that was our answer. Thank you for joining us today. Congratulations on the nine year anniversary. The cofounder and ceo of birchbox. We have markets lower. Crude oil up seven dollars . 99. . 99. . 99. . 99. At comcast, we didnt build the nations largest gigspeed network just to make businesses run faster. We built it to help them go beyond. Because beyond risk. Welcome to the neighborhood, guys. There is reward. Beyond work and life. Who else could he be . There is the moment. Beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Russia,e leaders of iran, and turkey met in ankara today to discuss the situation in syria. Topping the agenda is the situation in a lib, the last remaining stronghold in syria. The turkish president held the cooperation on what he called a lasting political solution. Vladimir putin said the joint efforts helped decrease efforts decrease violence in syria. Putind and president and irans president said it should not be a haven for terrorist. The luxembourg Prime Minister has asked Boris Johnson to hurry up and make written proposals if he wants to offer his country a path out of the brexit impasse. He said after meeting with johnson, he told him we need written proposals. I hear a lot, but i do not read a lot. Prime minister johnson said he remains optimistic. There is a good chance of a deal. I can sheet i can see the shape of it. When can see roughly what can be done. It will require movement. It will require the system by which that you can control the e. U. Can control the u. K. After we leave the socalled backstop to go from that treaty. That needs to happen. On camera statement was made outside the British Embassy in luxembourg after a planned News Conference was canceled because of noisy anti brexit protesters. Thousands of french professionals took to the streets of paris. Demonstrators wanted to show the displeasure at proposed changes that emmanuel macrons government says will simple fire the pension system. New conditions may encourage people to work longer. A large majority of those protesting were lawyers. The National Bar Counsel claims that proposed changes will double the taxes members pay. In haiti, demonstrators burned tires and barricaded streets, protesting the lack of gasoline supplies in the country. Fuel has been scarce for more than three weeks. Demonstrators are demanding the Government Take Action to end the situation. Suppliers have refused to deliver Petroleum Products until the government makes good on some 100 million in past due payments. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im Mark Crumpton. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from bloomberg World Headquarters, im shery ahn. Live in toronto, im amanda lange. We are joined by our bloomberg and rbn m bloomberg audiences. Here are the stories we are following around the world. The middle east and oil market is thrown into chaos as saudi aramco is growing less of the mistake there will be a lated recovery in oil production. Gm workers strike for the fourth time in 12 years. Autoworkers walk out on the job. The Company Facing 15 million in earnings damage a day. Two current and one former precious metal trader at j. P. Morgan are charged with manipulating futures markets in what prosecutors describe as a massive multiyear racketeering conspir