Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 2024071

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas July 14, 2024

120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. In his 1 00 p. M. In new york, 6 00 p. M. In london, 1 00 a. M. In hong kong. Im vonnie quinn. Welcome to bloomberg markets. From bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, here are the top stories from around the world we are following. President trump calling for the democrat leading the house impeachment inquiry to be questioned for treason. We have the latest from washington. Looks safe for now. The Credit Suisse board backing the ceo after an investigation into a spying scandal. The coo could take over. Wait. K, now we the company withdrawn its initial public offering. All that in the next 30 minutes. Abigail doolittle is with us, halfway into the last trading day of the quarter. Abigail the dow, s p, nasdaq all near session highs. The dow and the s p 500 set for quarterly gains. Of nasdaq on the cusp whether it may put in its first quarterly loss of the year. Gains continue, maybe it will join the dow and s p 500 higher. Not as risk on, the euro, trading at its lowest level against the dollar since 2017. Investors seeking the haven status of the dollar. The european economy is weaker than the u. S. Economy, but nonetheless, probably a little bit risk off. Where we are looking at an interesting rebound, apple, a oneyear chart. What we have now is the stock trading at its highest level in almost a year. Today being supported by jpmorgan, which brought up its volumes forecast for the iphone, also raising their price target to 265. They say the sentiment has improved materially. Where we also have some moves for boeing over the last few days, not to the upside. 2. 2 , despiteown some setbacks. The company has come in revamping their safety plan. They put together a new product and Services Safety organization to prevent the possibility of other tragic crashes. Really responding, down 2. 2 on the day. As you mentioned, the last day of the quarter. Stocks overall are higher. What makes this interesting and not as a risk on, these are the best sectors for the s p 500 in the third quarter. Is the best sector for the corner. Utilities, real estate, consumer staples. Investors seek those dividends when yields go lower. Utilities right now on pace for row. Ixth of quarter in a that is the longest winning streak going back to 1995. The degree to which investors are moving towardthat is the log streak going back utilities, a lot of next signals. We will be here to watch at all. Vonnie abigail doolittle, thank you. Impeachment inquiries entering week two. President trump taking aim at the whistleblower. In a number of democrats pointed twitter blitz. Meanwhile, arizona senator jeff flake urged republicans to stand myto the president , writing, fellow republicans, its time to risk your careers in favor of your principles. Whether you believe the president deserves impeachment, you know he doesnt deserve reelection. For those that want to put america first, it is critically important at this moment in our country that we all, here and now, do just that. Anna edgerton, bring us uptodate on where we stand with teaching and the process with it. On a recess for two weeks, where they are back at their home districts talking to their constituents. Democrats will be explaining why they are doing this, what the allegations are, and what makes this different. Willlicans will of course be trying to see if there any pressure on those republicans to be open to the impeachment inquiry. When they get that, we will have a better gauge on what the pressure is from the american public, and what they are hearing from their districts back home. Any inkling as to what any individual republican member is thinking . We have jeff flake with that oped, but he is no longer a vote. There has been an interesting divide between the house and senate. Senate republicans have been a little bit more hesitant. They are criticizing democrats, they are not yet ready to defend the president s actions and have expressed some concerns about the allegations and the conversation that everyone has read between President Trump and president zelinski of ukraine. When it comes to House Republicans, they are much more closely to the president s talking points, saying this is the mainstream media, democrats in cahoots to have another go at impeaching him because the Mueller Probe was a disappointment, as they say. What they are looking for now is any House Republicans that would get on board. Once it comes to an Impeachment Vote and there are articles of impeachment on the floor, if it is just a partisan exercise, it will not go very far to win the political argument. However, if there are some House Republicans that actually run with democrats to impeach the president , that will be a much stronger argument, sending it to the senate, who will actually be the chamber that decides whether to remove trump from office. Vonnie is it possible between now and when Congress Returns to washington, d. C. For the news cycle to be switched off in some way, either by the president or some other reason . While congress is out of town, we have two elements we are looking at. One is the president , offering his own defense, very active on twitter. On the other hand, we have the house intelligence committee, which is still here in washington, continuing their work. Formerve invited four and Current State Department officials to testify this week. We are not sure who will show up. They have also subpoenaed documents from secretary of state pompeo, giving him the deadline of october 4. We could still see some testimony from people involved in this, mentioned on the call. There will definitely be developments to watch, things for members to react to come even back in their home districts. Vonnie fantastic update. Thank you. Meantime, u. S. Stocks advancing on the last day of the quarter. Treasuries edging lower as well as investors weigh the latest turns in the global economy. Dennis us now is debusschere. Have you been thinking about the impeachment process, what it may due to the stock market . Dennis we have certainly been thinking about it. At this point, it has not changed how we are recommending investors allocate their assets. As a victoryens have gone up, some sensationalism as far as what be able to implement, but we are focused on the fundamentals now, which are improving. Vonnie the fundamentals are improving but there is a question over the economy. Does it matter how the economy performs, if it stays at the 2 trend line, or slows from there, to your model . Dennis 2 is your baseline. Then the question is, where are your risks relative to that 4 . 2 . We have been dealing with the trade war and that is now looking to be down. s are the last holdout, but as the inventory overhang has worked down, you will see pmis stabilize. Around that 2 will be more favorable, that left tale of recession reduced, which means a cyclical multiple relative to defenses makes less sense. Vonnie ok. The broader market, would you avoid certain sectors . Relatively shortterm, through the end of the year, we are less excited about utilities, staples, health care, the things that are doing well today. I would note, it was mentioned earlier the dollar is going up, but you are also seeing gold go down. Now. E 1475 dennis i think theres an underlying conversation. Inflation has done better than everyone has talked about. The downside skew to the economy looks to be a little less than what we thought before. Should we be discounting the fed cutting forever . Probably not if we are going to be in a 2 world with less recession risk. A dollar ends up looking more attractive, but that is for good reason. The economy is looking better. Generally speaking, that would be a negative or cyclicals relative to defenses. Vonnie how many more cuts are you pricing in . We are seeing a tiny bit of dovishness emerging from some. Confusei would not intent with the mechanics. View, weouse point of think we will go one, maybe two cuss the rest of the year. Markets are expecting three or four. Of the fed intent will be cleared to keep financial conditions easy, but that doesnt mean they have to keep on cutting. If the economy improves and inflation is getting back to 2 , by doing the thing, financial ease. Ions by definition if i can get this point across its important. Financial conditions will be easy. It will be the fence case to keep that to 2 . That doesnt mean that you have to cut four or five times to a compliment that goal. Vonnie what happens if we dont get any resolution to the trade war . Does that impact when you are seeing in terms of fundamentals . Be getsif list for implemented in december, which according to our analysis, 87 of those things cannot be sourced from other places, then everything im talking about goes wrong. My argument has a lot less credibility because that would be a significant negative event. If you have this persistent uncertainty, you will see a stabilization in the economy because the consumption side of the u. S. Economy is strong. Eventually, businesses have to do something if they want to remain competitive, hence the overhang being reduced, stabilization in the pmi. Overhang bullish backdrop, but businesses will be forced to do something. They will not be there hiding in the basement. Vonnie so we have to check in with you before december. Isi, thank you. Coming up, Credit Suisses board is backing Tidjane Thiam. The latest, next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn. Credit suisses board is backing Ceo Tidjane Thiam according to people familiar with the matter. A crucial meeting happening today to figure out what happens in that scandal. Joining us in zurich is maria tadeo. Fastuch credit of very credibility does the board have, given it looks like they are looking for a scapegoat, rather than finding out what happened . Maria that is the big question and its about trying to figure out how such a big Public Relations disaster could take place. To go back to what triggered this, you have to go back to the was seen asyee who a rising star here at Credit Suisse. He decided he wanted to leave the institution and go to ubs, a big rival. There is speculation as to what prompted the exit. The media here will tell you the relationship between the ceo is very much in focus, and have become incredibly toxic, and decided to leave. It becomes more complicated when that surveillance operation is put in place. Threatened,was there was a public altercation here. The bank, however, has a different idea of what happened here, that they were simply trying to protect their business, and that is the obligation of any board, to make sure a business is protected, that he would not try to steal other talent from the bank. At this one, the heat on Tidjane Thiam has come down, the board has decided to take this decision, but mostly because shareholders are backing him as the ceo. They say he is doing Good Business, there is no point to ditch the ceo in the middle of a turnaround plan. To be honest, this is a difficult and cutthroat industry. Things like this can happen. As long as it is not fully illegal, well, you have to have a thick skin. Vonnie tell us about the Wealth Management industry. Competitors practically across the street there in zurich. Exactly. In fact, they are across the street, and you have to keep this in mind. They are huge rivals, they compete with the same kind of this has, clients. Many will say this industry has become incredibly competitive because making money was no lover as easy as it was, so everyone has become hyper paranoid about this idea of bankers switching sides and taking away clients and business. Surely, that plays into the story. Essentially, this is what Credit Suisse says, that they were trying to protect their business from a former employee joining a rival, who by the way, will join ubs tomorrow. Who pierre is, apparently a confidant to Tidjane Thiam, but maybe the person catching the flat for all of this. Maria very good point. What we are hearing now is perhaps we get to a situation where none of the top management here at Credit Suisse takes any blame. The bank says it wasnt actually the management to blame here but the private investigators that overstepped their limits. That is something that could become crucial. Whether this is a private investigator that decided to go to aggressive. Wasouee, hes to in charge of staff, daily business with employees. The issue is it is difficult to just point the finger at him. If you look at media reports, it says the personal relationship between im Kevin Cirilli in washington, d. C. And himen Tidjane Thiam had become thin. This is something that a lot of people have known about. For that. Ank you she will continue to follow the story. Work with strong the prospectus for its scrapped ipo. Where do we go now . This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is bloomberg markets. Im vonnie quinn. We work out. Putting its ipo on official pause. The Company Executives announced earlier today, saying rest assured, we work will become a public company, but we can only ipo once, and we want to do it right. It is an understatement to say they did not do it right the first time around. So many things went wrong. What happens now, does the whole thing get shelved, back to square one . That is pretty much right. The company says they are committed to being a public but that means an ipo is unlikely to happen in 2019. The entire process will get realigned, they will study ipo profits again. Not only are they not going to raise that 3. 5 billion for the ipo, there is a Credit Facility that is contingent on the success of the ipo, 6 million a could be unwound. Apart from redoing the ipo, there will be negotiating with the banks on the terms of that credit line. Vonnie originally, that was contingent on the fact of the ipo being this year. Next year would negate any credit line agreement. What about softbank . Could they provide financing instead . We have not heard officially. Coceo only started last week, so this is all moving very quickly. We have not heard from softbank. It would not be totally surprising if softbank comes in to protect their investment and says we are going to put money in it. We should expect more reporting, more news. Softbank is definitely one to watch. Vonnie they are also redoing the structure of the leasing business. This means it may not look as attractive in the future, right . Letter letter to employees, they said, its time to look at ourselves as a business, what we want to be in the future. That means we should expect some restructuring, reviewing of their business. That has been a criticism, that they have not been profitable, investors do not like that. Hopefully, they can take some time, improve their numbers, and when it comes back next time, they have better performance to perform. Zell has said it is like a savings and loan, very longterm leases in favor of shortterm, and that its a very strange structure. If it changes, has anybody presented a new model . There is still a question mark. The company has been operating for about nine years. They still have not proven a Good Business model. This is perhaps one tough lesson to learn that. The short lease is not the success model. Instead of renting the properties, they should be buying some of the properties instead. There are lots of things to experiment. But we will definitely hear from them. I am sure they will keep the market updated. Vonnie thank you for all of your reporting. Lets take a look at the data even we are past the halfway mark in this final session of the quarter. The s p up. 7 . The nasdaq is rallying, may even in the quarter in the green. It is up 0. 8 . The 10 year 1. 60 right now. Brands are doing well today, unlike its bonds. This is bloomberg. Ritika im ritika gupta with bloomberg first word news. Democratic president ial candidate cory booker says he has hit the one when 7 million fundraising goal. His campaign set of ego. Ensures hisment campaign has enough money to continue his white house bid. The new jersey senator says if he failed to raise the money come he would end his 2020 bed. Booker raise 4. 5 million during the Second Quarter and spent nearly one million more than that. In new york, gop representative Christopher Collins is expected to plead guilty to insider trading. The congressman was charged last her with trading on nonpublic information about immunotherapy. He was arrested, along with his son, and the father of his sons fiancee. Kurtz islia, sebastian on track to return as chancellor. If they can agree on a coalition, that would send a signal across europe. Still, it may not be easy to form a government. Ang kong is cleaning up after week of protests and bruising for more. Demonstrators threw gasoline bombs at police. They responded by using water cannons. The city will close several major subway stations until further notice. The city is prepared for bigger protest tomorrow, when china marks the 70th anniversary of communist rule. Global news 24 hours a day, onair, and tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Shery live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, im shery ahn. Amanda live in toronto, im amanda lang. We are joined by our bloomberg and Bnn Bloomberg audiences. Shery here are the top stories from around the world. The u. S. Financial battle with china. The white house denies reports that the u. S. Could limit investments in the chinese market, which some say would be the most extreme threat in the escalating trade war. But when has unveiled a revamp focus on safety. Details on the overhaul. And the first female president of estonia weighs in on the value of the European Union and why its no hard for women to rise through the ranks of political leadership. Amanda lets get a quick check on the major averages on this last day of the quarter. We are seeing the broader markets responding possibly to better news on the trade front, walking back of the dire s

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