It is the insurers and medical providers doing so well today. Unitedhealth group up 8. 6 . Medical loss provision was not as bad as anticipated. It was actually better than forecast, and that has all of those insurers higher. Johnson johnson saying it is not setting aside money for those court cases it is going to fight, and will win thousands of them, according to johnson johnson. The 10 year yield moved quite a bit in the session, back after a holiday yesterday, 1. 75 on the 10 year. Guy letsguy take a look at where we are in europe, dominated by the brexit news over the last few minutes. The pound spiking up on the cable rate against the u. S. Dollar towards 1. 28. The ftse 250, the more to mystically focused market, also spiking. When it comes the more domestically focused market, also spiking. When it comes to the ftse 100, some names spiking sharply. As you can see, a strong response to the headlines being reported out of brussels. Apparently, eu negotiators and breasted negotiators out of the u. K. Are closing in on a draft deal. Optimism is rising that there could be a breakthrough before the end of the day. Lets bring in our panel to discuss what we are learning and what it means. Hillman, International Trade commission, and Chris Watling of longview economics. If we do get a deal, what is your expectation as to the type of deal we are going to get come on a spectrum of hard brexit to soft brexit . What do you think this looks like . Alison i think it looks somewhat jennifer i think it looks somewhat closer to hard brexit, but the good news is it would have a transition period, which is what the whole world needs to see. Chaos really creating a very strong downward pull on the economic growth. What is it do for the ability of everybody to have a bit of a transition to figure out these complicated customs arrangements and other things that need to be done. Guy a deal that provides some degree of structure and astanding for investors deal now . Talk me through the implications economically. Chris what the u. K. Needs now is certainty. ,ven if there is no deal theres uncertainty. There is certainty. The way the ftse is reacting is sort of telling you that. Assets and the u. K. Are very cheap, and that money coming in, certainty coming back, is very good for the u. K. Economy in aggregate. Vonnie whatever this deal involves, we have scotlands scotlandsrgeon sturgeon talking now. Where would that leave Something Like the good friday agreement . Jennifer this has obviously been one of the things that everybody has been struggling to figure out. People like me and others that live in the trade space that are constantly asked can you do this kind of arrangement where you sort of have Northern Ireland and the Customs Union with the eu, and sorted in the Customs Union with the rest of the u. K. How would you do this . How would the border controls actually work . Can you do what Boris Johnson has been proposing . The honest answer from many of us is we cant tell yet until we can really see it written down and try to understand how with these kind of border checks work. We in the United States have spent a lot of time looking at how we organize, for example, the border between the United States and canada, where you have many of the same aspects of the Northern Irelandireland border, with many crossings over a long stretch of miles, with a need to do checking, but not letting checking get in the way of a very cordial and integrated economy between the u. S. And canada, for example. We dont know whether any of those kinda procedures can be done between Northern Ireland and ireland. I think that is going to be the real test both for the European Union and whether or not this can get through the u. K. Obviously, it is very problematic for the dup and others if the perception is that what is actually being created is a hard border across the irish sea, and whether or not that is happening is going to depend on whether the rest of it can be made to work. So we are all going to be looking for this text to come out. Vonnie exactly. If it is not specific on any of these questions, if it talks about a backstop and may pushing the can down the road on that, is there an impact on economies worldwide, on economies locally . Jennifer i think some of that is also going to depend on what is then the future relationship between the u. K. And the eu, and those negotiations havent even begun yet. It is going to depend on how far and how closely integrated to the eu regulatory policies remain with the u. K. , how much can you continue to engage in the Global Supply chains that are moving product across not just the ireland border, but how much is it going to be easy for companies that are Building Product in the u. K. To be able to ship it and move it without regulatory barriers, without significant tariffs, into the rest of europe . If all of that comes about, either as a result of this deal where a result of the future negotiation, then i think you will not see as much tension over these border issues because youre going to continue to see consistent trade and movement of goods, services, people, capital across those borders without substantial barriers. If that is where we end up, i think that would be a good outcome across the board, but whether that can be achieved in the face of brexit i think is a very real question for the british voters to be asking. Guy chris, lets come back and examine the british economy from another angle. There have been some suggestions that were read to get a brexit deal come of the bank of england would be looking to raise rates. Given the global backdrop we find ourselves in, is that a realistic prospect . Do is, like most other Central Banks around the world, the most scenario the bank of england cutting rates . Chris i think they should cut. Clearly, most Central Banks are cutting, with the exception of norway in one or two others. If this continues, that reduces the Inflationary Pressure in the economy and imports a little bit of deflation. The Global Economy is slowing. It would be madness to hike here. I think there is clear argument for a cut, and the more cuts, the more you soup that argument. You get this you support that argument. You get this virtuous circle. Guy in many ways, the exit process should be the easy thing to do. The longer term relationship and finding stability there is a much more difficult path for both sides to tread. Do you have any clear understanding of how that is likely to develop . I know we dont understand what the deal is like here, but lets assume it is a starting point that allows, as youve indicated come of the relationship to be reasonably cordial. What do you think the longterm relationship will look like, and how long do you think it will take to stabilize . Jennifer obviously there is some sort of hard redline on both side. Clearly, what the European Union has made clear from the beginning is what it cannot look like is exactly what it would mean to be a current member of the eu. If you are simply allowing the u. K. To leave, but to get all of the benefits, and primarily those benefits are those Single Market benefits, meaning the Free Movement of goods, capital, services, and people, in order to come up with some sort of agreement, they will have to be an arrangement that will put some sort of constraint on some or all of those movements to some degree. That is really going to be the trick. How much of a degree as theyre going to be of restraint . I think it is about a lot more than tariffs. Obviously, tariffs are going to be a very significant issue, but i think the harder one and much more difficult one to work out is the degree to which all goods and services in the u. K. Continue to trade at standards and pursuant to regulatory measures established in the eu. That is where the real barriers are going to come to trade. If there is a significant divergence between those, then youre going to see a lot of delays and difficulties with trade in those areas. Those are not easy to resolve. As you may recall, the United States and the European Union were engaged for quite a long time in negotiations under the transatlantic trade and alliance partnership. The barrier to doing that deal would be the alignment of regulatory barriers. That is where all the money is. And yet, that is by far the hardest thing to do. The reason those talks failed is it is too hard. It is very hard to do. Guy looks like we still got some work to do. Jennifer hillman and Chris Watling are both staying with us. We still probably need to talk about the other big trade story that is out there between the United States and china. That is coming up next. In the meantime, we need to check the markets. Here with the details, abigail doolittle. Abigail take a look at the s p 1. 1 . The u. S. , up the possibility of a brexit deal adding to the gains. Interestingly, the ftse 100 flipping between small gains and losses. Some of the big banks weighing, hsbc and lloyds of london. However, the broader index up. Theres a bit of a relief rally around the possible draft brexit deal. The turkey etf up 1. 6 . If it is a relief rally there after the worst six days since march after the u. S. Put additional sanctions against turkey. The pound is really the big mover on the day, striking sharply higher on the day, spiking sharply higher on that headline of the possibility of a draft brexit deal. On the month, the pound timing for percent, the best monthly performance since january 2018 the pound climbing the the bestmbing 4 , monthly performance since genuine 2018. Stocks. S moving into as for health care, the best day since january 2018. Unitedhealth shares up on the first time theyve boosted the fullyear view this year. Jp morgan putting up a very strong quarter. Trading revenue helping out. Blackrock also putting up a solid quarter. Inflows for both cash and fixed income strong. Vonnie thank you for all of that. Remember, the function gtv allows you to browse all of the recent charts featured on bloomberg tv. Catch up on analysis, savior analysis, save your favorites for future reference. This is bloomberg. Guy the irish Prime Minister over the last few minutes giving a press conference, not on brexit, but hes being asked about brexit. Let me give you some of the responses. Brexit progress is being made. Unclear if a deal will be ready by thursday, wendy eu summit starts in brussels thursday, when the eu summit starts in brussels. Johnson said he would be confident of getting a deal through. Im not sure if that is referencing the British Parliament brussels, but a few more hurdles to go the British Parliament or brussels, but a few more hurdles to go. The pound trading at an elevated level relative to where it is been of late. We are currently on the cable rate at 1. 2771. Vonnie parliament will apparently have to come in on saturday for one of very few occasions in history of ever having to do that if this were to go through europe, in order to meet the requirements of the benn act, so we will see what happens between now and thursday. Lets check in on the first word news. Heres courtney donohoe. Courtney an agreement to end the General Motors strike may be near. The ceo is in the room with negotiators for the company and united auto workers. The strike began more than four weeks ago. President trump from mr. Big sanctions on turkey for its military campaign in syria President Trump promised big sanctions on turkey for its military campaign in syria. The administration is calling for a ceasefire in syria, but not a turkish withdrawal. Its a sign of how far apart the u. S. And china are on trade, despite the handshake deal. Bloomberg has learned beijing will struggle to buy if 2 billion of u. S. Farm goods unless it removes retaliatory buy 50 struggle to billion of u. S. Farm goods unless it removes retaliatory goods, which it would only do if the u. S. Removed tariffs. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Vonnie thank you. Brexit headlines continue to drift out, and it does look a little more positive. Us, Jennifer Hillman, Council Senior fellow, and Chris Watling come along view economics ceo and chief market strategist. Varadkart minister leo is speaking irish Prime Minister leo varadkar is speaking. He says that he would not ask the eu to copper mies on ice in the market, happy with eu flexibility on brexit, but there are more hurdles to go. It does seem like something is going to get done by thursday. The british Pound Holding onto most of its gains at 1. 27. Lets set that aside for just one moment and get to our china trade news. China have the news that will only begin to buy those agricultural purchases if the u. S. Agrees not to put on tariffs in december, and indeed, to roll back some of the tariffs already in place. How likely is that, Jennifer Hillman . Jennifer it is very hard to say because what we do know is that, notwithstanding the announcement from president that there was a deal, no one within the Chinese State media described as the deal. Basically described as progress in the talks. What we do know is that anything comes of what happened last week in washington, it is going to take three to five weeks to even write it up as an agreement. All that happened so far is that the United States agreed not to increase some of the tariffs , which would have otherwise happened this week. That was the only promise made on the u. S. Side. The only promise on the chinese side was additional purchases of agricultural products, along with some unspecified provisions on currency transparency and inlets will property an intellectual property. It is very clear that china is not happy, that they have not gotten anywhere close to what they want, which is a guarantee that the u. S. Will not put additional tariffs on, and they want to roll back some of the existing paris. And it is clear some of the existing tariffs. And it is clear that if these tariffs do go on in december, 98 of all chinese goods coming into the u. S. Will be subject to these very high additional tariffs, so we are pretty far apart at this point and dont even have the on whether we have an agreement. So really unclear how we get there. As jennifer says, a lot of ambiguity around exactly where we are, but even the clarity we do seem to have only speaks about a status quo situation. The chinese would like the u. S. To roll back some of these tariffs. You can almost understand why. Take a look at what is happening with the chinese economy and the Global Economy. The status quo as we are right now is causing the Global Manufacturing sector to enter a recession. You see it from the United States, europe, and china. In order for the Global Economy to turn around, we need ds collation rather than just status quo on those tariff deescalationneed rather than just status quo on those tariff numbers. Chris possibly. I thick markets are starting to disc out to discount the negotiations. There was some sort of agreement , whether a proper agreement or half agreement, we dont know, but youre moving in that direction. I think the markets have gone from very riskaverse not long deals closer two to coming together, the brexit deal perhaps faster. Bad, global is manufacturing is bad, but the worse it gets, the more monetary loosing we gets for the fed and the rest of the world, and the more you stabilize the Global Economy. We are in this very unusual situation whereby the fed is being very reactive, and more reactive the worse the trade deal gets. That is why we are seeing such good performance of the s p. They said on friday it wasnt qe. It is not officially qe, but it is liquidity, and theres an awful lot of it the fed is now producing. Vonnie it is so cloudy, though, the outlook. Isnt it . Jim bullard saying theres not , the fed should make it clear that even though it doesnt need to cut, that it would do something in an emergency. If we get to the point where we need something done in an emergency, that is a very precarious situation to begin, isnt it . Chris the reality is whatever the equity market sells off, we pricing more rate cuts in the fed funds futures curve. If the market rallies, we price them out. It was saying early this year it wasnt going to cut it all. Last year it was still raising rates. The fed funds futures market continues to be way ahead of it. It wouldnt be an emergency cut. It would just be a natural outcome of where the market is telling it to go. We can see already from your bloomberg work function, theres a very High Percentage chance of a cut at the end of this month. Guy and another in december. Jennifer, lets talk about where this ultimately ends up going. What are the chances of a lighthizer deal, i. E. Everything included . Is that possible if you take a step back and look at this conflict between china and United States as more of a geopolitical conflict . Jennifer i think its hard to see the deal in the sense that this started out with u. S. Chinas state owned enterprises and subsidies, concerns over forced technology transfer, over intellectual property theft. That was the understanding of what the u. S. Wanted. On those goals, they had a lot of the rest of the world with them, even if the rest of the world doesnt support th