Past couple of months. Joe very impressive. Good into this weekend. Lets dive deeper with our market reporter. Get us started. I am looking at this giant rally in biotech stocks. Etf jumping,otech the secondbiggest gain among etfs bigger than five dollars in assets. It was led by a Chinese Company after thed 37 company was said to take 37 . Also rallying about 2 . Aminogen jumping 28 after aminogen jumping 28 after boosting its revenue forecast for the full year. Biotech is one of those sectors that is not broken out to new record territory. 10 ibp etf still down about from last year and 70 from its high in 2015. It is an interesting sector to keep an eye on if and when the speculative Growth Stocks become darlings of the market. Luke i am looking at one of the last few things that bears are hanging their hats on. The failure to really confirm the recent highs in stocks. If you look at highyield spreads, investmentgrade spreads, even yields back to energy, we are not making new tape even as stocks make new highs. On thursday, there was a 37 basis point widening the chunk debts to push the index level to its highest bread since january. If you look underneath the curtain a little bit, you will see that it has been very concentrated. California resources, bonds are getting absolutely smashed. The yield approached nearly 60 . What we have had today, we have had that Company Release yesterday its results a few days early after the close. We are seeing a big retracement that will be reflected in the ccc yield once it updates at the end of the day. Talking about Car Rental Company avis budget group. It is down but they did trim may decline. The company missed its estimates due to higher tax rates. This made analysts and investors a little bit skeptical about the companys ability to maintain profit growth. Another area of concern, revenue per day, which fell 2 in its american business. Avis budget group is up for the year but it took a more than 30 drop in august. The ceo announced in a that he was leaving the company in may that he was leaving the company. He said they would focus on profitability into next year. Scarlet still with us is alex dryden from jp morgan and Bloomberg News macro strategist cameron crise. Alex, you were telling us that investors want to see the glasses half full, yet the resolution of of phase one of the u. S. China trade deal just brings up more questions between the u. S. And europe. Looking into 2020, we work get geting investors not to carried away. In fixed income, focus on quality, making sure that we are not taking risks in the market. High yields have done ok. Definitely taking a little bit of profit off the table. Joe obviously, a very good week for stocks. Also a good week for bonds. Are we back to this regime where you can buy both and they are both working . Back ined put that play . Cameron that is kind of the Million Dollar question. The market, for better or for worse, what they heard from Jerome Powell is, i am never hiking again. That is not what he said, but we all hear what we want to hear. They are going to run with it until the market tells them or market tells them or shows them that is not the case. Joe the line came in response to the question that the bar for the next hike was sustained inflation. It wasnt part of the opening script. Do you think it is possible that was an off script moment . One of the most frustrating things about the advent of these prescotttis, anytime these press conferences, anytime the fed does something, now that they are cutting, when are you going to hike . He was never going to say 45 minutes after he just cut rates, here is how i am going to hike. That would offset what he has just done. I think the market overreacted. Time, perhapss of we will see the move lower in yields over the next few days. For now, as long as the market market believes this, it is hard to see a real visceral selloff. Today,e on bloomberg someone was saying, we have inflation near our objective. Are you worried about inflationary pressures company . Inflationm not sure is high on my list of risks in 2020. As we are doing the annual outlooks, people talk about inflation. If we were to start seeing some sustained inflation, your Asset Allocation decision across much of the portfolios begin to change. Inflationso much if were to come through, it is about the tolerance of inflation. Many fed officials have been saying have been running inflation below the 2 target for a long time. If that is the case, we could run with some sustained inflation through 2020 and 2021 if the fed scarlet felt the need to move. Europe if the fed felt the need to move. Scarlet europe would love to have our problems. Thestine lagarde is now head of the ecb. Of certainly has a lot challenges. But there seems to be a lot of reimism built in to her new ign. She has the skill set to convince politicians of the need to bring in some new fiscal stimulus. This was the message that her predecessor, mario draghi, has beaten on about for years. It is simply because Monetary Policy is tapped out. You have negative Interest Rate policies, you have a uturn on Asset Purchase Program in a region where you already own around 30 of the euro zone government debt. I would like to see some fiscal policy. Strong fiscal headwind. This view that Monetary Policy is tapped out, particularly in laces where the rates are already zero, have people been too quick to dismiss the potential power of fed cuts here in the u. S. . It does seem like some of the rate sensitive areas of the market have had a good year, especially housing. Cameron certainly and Financial Assets. Monetary policy can influence Financial Assets quite forcefully. I think the impact of the real economy is much more muted. Housing stocks have been great. You look at the contribution of housing gdp growth, it has not improved that much. People might be buying a few more houses but the larger issue is not going to be resolved because Mortgage Rates have gone down 70 54 100 basis points. 75 100 basis points. Caroline give us a take next week. We have earnings still coming, we have a bit of data. What needs to happen to getwhata leg higher . Alex i will be focused on any material turnaround in Economic Data with a real focus on the euro zone. If you start to see that global laggard in the form of europe start to pick up, i think that provides support for earnings and that can lift markets as we move into the holiday season. Scarlet not all data is equal. Alex i will be looking closely at the pmi numbers and area closely at the survey with a focus on germany. Germany needs to stabilize for the european lock european bloc to do better. Scarlet that does it for the closing bell. Nextd you miss . Is up where we will be looking at the street battles. The streaming battles. This is bloomberg. Caroline we are live from new york, i am caroline hyde. Joe i am joe weisenthal. Romaine bostick is out. Stocks closed at a near record high. A near record high. The jobs numbers come in at her than expected for october. A battle of the streaming services is in full swing. Apple plus goes live at last. And, pelosi power. The u. S. Speaker of the house tells bloomberg that impeachment hearings are set to kick off beginning this month. More from the speaker, coming up. Federal reserve vice chairman richard claret exclusively with bloomberg earlier today to discuss his Growth Outlook for the u. S. Economy following an unexpectedly strong jobs report. Growth,ve ongoing inflation near our objective. Growth, we have characterized it as moderate right now. The Global Economy has been slowing, and that is a factor. But the u. S. Economy is very resilient and these are good numbers, the gdp and labor market numbers. Economic for an outlook is sarah house, director and senior economist at wells fargo security. So great to have you. As you scan the data, with the jobs report, is it pretty safe to say,as you scan the data, wit that a recession is not imminent . Sarah i do agree we are looking at still pretty solid growth over the next several quarters, especially in light of the backdrop of pressures overseas. While the industrial sector remains under pressure, we are not seeing that spillover into the broader economy. Not seeing aare spillover to wages or wage pressure. What does it say for you in terms of household spending. Some are worried about the consumer Going Forward on the back of these numbers. Sarah i think the consumer is in ok shape but we are likely to see a downshift. The trends are still downshifting. As you point out, we really have not seen much of a strengthening or acceleration in terms of average hourly earnings. As you look forward, you dont look you dont see a lot of businesses looking to expand compensation right now. That does portend only moderate wage growth which points to somewhat slower Household Income growth. Obviously, the data from the u. S. To some extent has been an v of the world, which does not say a lot given the weakness we are seeing abroad. Are you confident that, perhaps with a little detente on trade and some other factors abroad, that the global picture is a little less risky than it arguably was earlier this year . Sarah i think we are seeing some tentative signs of things stabilizing or at least not getting worse. At least that impulse in terms of the manufacturing side of things is not weakening any further. Given that, that is really where the downdraft has been, i think that does portend well for the theder broader outlook in the u. S. Caroline chairman powell, social orientation, the reason he has wanted to keep the lights on his to make sure there is greater inclusion rate the Participation Rate. How much do you think the fed might be forced to do more Going Forward if they want to see the Participation Rate and greater growth within the overall hiring strategy . Sarah i think they have been doing what they can in terms of lowering the fed funds rate again. In terms of hiring, keeping strong in those areas. We have really seen the Participation Rate continue to climb higher. That has been an upside surprise given some of these Structural Forces that a lot of economists thought were holding back participation. But we are also seeing the expansion really spreading terms of wage growth. Even though overall it has been stuck around 3 , it is growing at about 4. 5 in some industries. You are seeing the gains spread more evenly of late. Joe what about manufacturing . The way people talk about it is like, will this spread . Is that promise sound or is it just, it is going to do its own thing and the Services Sector can hold up regardless of how weak manufacturing is . Sarah there is the risk that it only in not manufacturing but also the onlyn manufacturing but also the goods sector. The environment is uncertain, some might be holding back on that. If you look at where that goods weakness might spread into, it is areas like professional and Business Services that are maybe doing consulting or legal work for some of these goods producing industries. There is some risk it would spillover but he would have to see a market contraction and we are just not there right now. Caroline sarah house, always house, always great to get your perspective. A reminder that you can catch all of our great interviews on bloomberg with the function tv if you are lucky enough to own a terminal. Wee smoking to the will be smooth we will be the chief equity strategist. We may need to see growth globally if we are to support some of the Earnings Growth for 2020. This is bloomberg. 0. This is bloomberg. Stocks jumping to record highs after that unexpectedly strong jobs report. Groupg us more, capital chief strategist peter. Youas been a while since have been on the show but in the past, you have been cautious. Yet, here we are at record highs. Market . Ust respect the you always have to respect the scoreboard. But i am also glad that i am a strategist so i can come here after the close and explain what happened during the day. The number is interesting because employment numbers have been trending downward. It is interesting to see the revisions, massive revisions. You tend not to see that. So, lets see what happens next month. We had the ism number that was below 50. We are managing very small expectations, just like earnings. Earnings growth has declined but it has beat expectations. A, i think giving everybody participation trophy in the market has been fantastic. The scoreboard says, lets by apple, which is mindboggling to me. It is a trillionplus stock and its market cap goes up more than the last 150 market cap value. How long can that continue . Caroline can it continue as long as the trade music continues Getting Better . Peter kudlow was on today and says the tariffs are not off the table yet. The chinese say, well we are making progress. I think the proof is in the pudding. Obviously, seasonally, it is such a great time of year. As any first year Technical Analyst will tell you, when every single industry is making new highs, you have to respect that. Joe it is great to come on and say you have to respect new highs, but at the same time you are pointing out that are not great in the economy. Highses one respect new while also being mindful of some of the data and news you are identifying. Peter as a strategist, after it goes down, you had come back on. The reality becomes what any successful manager, you have to have Risk Management. If you are long, you have to say, wait a second, what is the risk reward here . Beanstalk does not grow to the sky. We have seen that previously. You have to give the benefit of the doubt to the upside, but you should probably tighten up your risk parameters because there are still a lot of things that can go wrong. Caroline someone from Credit Suisse yesterday was talking about how we seem to be getting to extreme levels. Extremely bullish and that means that we sort of cant go higher. Or getting extremely bearish and that means there is some sort of bottom on the market. How much are the technicals at play here . How much are we likely to see the s p 500 able to push higher if we have some sort of unbridled optimism . Peter our job is to try not to whereat on the ship everybody runs to one side, a dozen go there, it doesnt go up, and they all run to the other side. You have to put the weight of the evidence on the data. We think in the short run that the technicals are far more important than fundamentals because fundamentals change with a lag and respect all the information you are talking about. Joe what are you looking at either index or component level that was a this is something to watch for a break in either direction . The transports have diverged. The stocks that have kept us out of trouble, fisa, mastercard, they are strong on their earnings. They did not make new highs. We are going to look you want to sell the stuff that is going down, you want to be long the stuff that is going up. Dont try to pick a bottom. If the stocks are going down in this environment and it turns around, they are likely to accelerate to the downside. If you think you are negative, you take a stock like visa or mastercard, you have Risk Management levels in which that is the most important here. Now, is the economy slowing . That is what it looks like. But again, the market can stay irrational far longer than i can stay solvent. Discipline is the key. Caroline great to have you with us. House, speaker of the nancy pelosi weighs in on the impeachment inquiry and protecting the constitution. This is bloomberg. Mberg. Bloombergs first word news. Chinas ministry of commerce the country has achieved a consensus in principle with the United States on trade. There was a phone call between he chinese vice premiere and Robert Lighthizer and secretary treasury. And they are towards finalizing the phase one trade accord between the worlds two largest economies. China has won the permission to impose 3. 5 billion in sanctions against the United States. The damages awarded are the Third Largest in w. T. O. History. It predates the current trade war between the two countries. Did not meet a deadline to modify its antidumping regime and set back for the way america restriggets cheap china imports. Erdogan held talks with United States secretary general. The discussions were likely to have been dominated by turkeys offensive in northeast syria. Earl on this trip, he addressed a mediation conference. Chicago teachers and Students Affected by an 11day strike returned to classrooms this morning. It was chicagos longest walkout by teachers since 1987. Attentative agreement that ended the walkout is expected to shape education for the next five years include class size limits and additional social workers nurses and support for homeless students. Both sides secured key victories and fell short on other priorities. A strike doesnt just change a contract. It changes the people who participate in a strike. We feel a little bit of what it means to have our voice count. The Teachers Union members must vote. They havent discussed a time line for that process yet. Global news 24 hours on day and on twitter powered by 2700 powered by journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Caroline now speaker of the house nancy pelosi said she expects to begin public hearings this month and there is no deadline to finish the investigation. She discussed the proceeding. We have decided that we are going to defend and support the constitution of the United States. For a long time i resisted