Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240713 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia July 13, 2024

Phase one trade deal could not happen until december at the earliest. Discrepancies any the disagreements as to where a deal could be signed. Iowa or that could be ohio or hawaii being next. Here we go. Came out. Stronger than expected. The philippine peso pretty much where it was. Had been trading higher before that print came out. 16 out of 26 economists had predicted bit protected it. We had a little bit of weakness. Continuing its lurch as well. We had a fix earlier, which was again showing a bit more strength for the cny. Just slightly above the fix. Up for the dollar, three tens of one presented moving things along, having a look at what is going on in new york. We are going to start in the u. K. If i did officials are set to deliver a warning shot the politicians budget officials are set to deliver a warning shot to politicians amid fears there could be an arms race of tax and spending promises. The outrage of responsibility could have 26 billion added to its budget forecast. Withctions updated recently introduced promises. Prime minister Boris Johnson has lost a senior colleague as he launched the campaign for next months election. Amid reports he knew of a it is the first resignation of a cabinet minister during a campaign in at least 100 years. The opposition labor also suffered a blow with tom watson saying he is ready to leave politics. To china where state owned entities are said to be in talks of investing up to 10 billion in the hotly anticipated saudi aramco ipo. Fund hasng silk road been in discussion with other esso weeds joining in. In aramcoe investment would bolster investment. It would allow china to profit from global oil reduction. Control commission and officials from the u. S. Holding a press conference about a fentanyl byggling syndicate busted chinese and u. S. Authorities. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. Lets have a look at the breaking news story. Amongst all of the arguments between washington and beijing, fentanyl has become more of an issue. Have this announcement that china has it is one of the highest profile moves against the illicit flow of opioids that President Trump has made as one of his bones of contention. This is what we had. The speaker is from the ncc. Also seeing a briefing on what is going on. This is the National Narcotics control commission. China sentencing one person to death. Two others receiving life sentences. As the twoing coming countries try to negotiate a deal to partially solve the tariff war. Economic losses on both sides. Bothngton and beijing being criticized for not getting there heads together. Washington has put beijing to say it is a scourge. Blamed for thousands of overdoses in the United States. This fentanyl probe has originally been conducted by the u. S. It is bearing fruit as far as they are concerned. Lets get back to our top story. Trade of the u. S. China deal are back with a potential signing summit seen slipping into december at best. Our correspondent is at the International Import expo in shanghai. What is the latest on a trade deal and possible location for a summit . Now that the november signing at the apex summit in chile is out of the picture, the decision around a possible decision is throwing a wrench into the previous schedule. The Trump Administration had proposed locations in the United States. Those vocations have been rolled out. Have been ruled those locations have been ruled out. This does potentially give a bit more time for them to sort out some of the issues around chinas demand to have a rollback on the threads of future tariffs and existing tariffs. It is hard to say if trump will capitulate, given how important tariffs have been to his National Strategy in dealing with china. France vowing to uphold free trade. They are bound to say that. The language used does tend to suggest it is a broadside to the white house. The context is that those statements were made among emmanuel macrons threeday visit in china where they signed 15 billion worth of deals in the energy and agricultural sectors. The message they are saying is that china and friends are here to uphold multilateral institutions. That is in sharp contrast to ofmps strategy unilateralism. The e. U. Has been critical of chinas recent move. Some say they have not been they say the import expo does not solve all of the structural complaints they have against china. Many critics of trump say the e. U. And u. S. Should have worked together in dealing with china from the beginning because they have some of the same longstanding complaints against china. A lot of improvement between china and friends. The e. U. Does still have longstanding concerns against the way china has been dealing with some of the trade practices. Thank you very much. Brett mcgonagle, great to see you. You saider said this is not a trade were. It is a war of words. You cannot be holding to that. I still am. Look at what is going on. We have gotten this critical thing that has gone missed. Every time there was a hiccup previous to today or yesterday, it was always the trade war. The deal that was falling apart. They were going to go back. Levy all these tariffs, and everyone was going to regroup. That has gone now. Now it is a delay. We are delaying the signing of a deal. I know this may sound technical, but the whole sentiment behind everything has changed. I have never said this is anything more than headlines in the newspaper. I do not know how you police theft of ip or transfer of technology. These are big issues that are be put into the confines of two pieces of paper. The rest of it is all just backandforth. It is causing damage. You have to admit that. It is telling investment decision. We are seeing apparel manufacturers and importers being hit hard. Yes, there certainly has been damage done. I do not know how you can really gauge the damage. There is one way to gauge it, which is the indexes that track of the stocks and sentiment of people. There are trading at alltime highs. You have gone back and forth on this for a year. If you were shorting the market every time you thought there was a hiccup in the trade war, you have gotten run over. The markets continue to go higher and higher. That is a bigger thought process a hind the sentiment impact down the words of people talking down the market. Has agriculture been effective been affected . There are opportunities where things become more streamlined. We never think about all these processes until we have to. Ab we can actually make them more efficient. That was not trumps goal. Maybe that is the take away. China surely, that is a strategic move amid the trade tensions. Positive hat the you are saying it is a negative because they are raising euro dollars. The simple fact that people are buying chinese paper is the real somatic that is positive. The real somatic that is positive people getting around their head around the fact that chinese paper needs to not only be purchased, but it is a yielding play where people can get their head around it. We can start derisking this idea there is some bomb that is going to drop on the corporate Balance Sheets of china. That is the next big play. I like the fact that paper is being issued. I like the fact that it is going international, which is bringing back the international and western investors back into chinese products. What are the implications here . Some say this is the opening of the floodgates and we may see a rush for companies to issue bonds in europe. Oflook, there is a lot dollars and bonds outstanding. A lot of the companies have been hit either delta. Have beenkening hit by the delta. Floodgate . T is a i think there is a lot of Balance Sheets of corporate that could help with getting fresh capital. I do not necessarily think the floodgate would portend something negative. I think this is more about the opening up. This is more about transparency. More about people becoming more accustomed to holding this paper. That is the real positive. Companies issue bonds. It is something they do. It is a way they manage their Balance Sheets. I do not think there is a negative in that. Points the more touch western investors have chinese paper, the further along we get a getting away from this negative sentiment that has surrounded the chinese Corporate Bond market for a time. Ever the optimist, brett mcgonagle king brett mcgonagle. Still to come, we will have a big lineup of exclusive interviews. First stop, the ceo of globe telecom. Former the former r. B. I. Governor. This is bloomberg. Welcome back. Banking on strong smartphone growth despite washingtons blacklisting of the company. The founder spoke to bloomberg. This year, shipments will be around 240 to 250 million. They expect that next year, there will be big growth. We do not know about the future situations we might face. Meanwhile, we have one of the biggest mobile operators in the philippines out with earnings. Service revenue up by double digits. This on the back of growth in data as well as mobile sustained growth. Telecomus is the president. Go through the numbers, the bright spots, and then we can go from the highlights to the low lights. Great, thank you for having me on the show. Us about what was driving the growth and how you can sustain it. A large seems to be latent demand for mobile data in the philippines. It has been going on for some time. Mobile a very good smartphone penetration going on in the country. You have a population that is young and predisposed to mobile data usage. We are habituated into social media. We have streaming video, streaming music. All of the cases are maturing. The market is moving towards increased usage of data. Capex is building out the network and building additional capacity. Globe has made significant steps in improving our rollout process. We have been working on this the last year. As a result, we have been increasing the number of sites on air. We are expecting to cross the thousand site mark for the first time in our history in 2019. A lot of it due to the fact that the team has worked on reducing the bureaucracy inside globe itself in the procurement and the acceptance and the roll up process. The more capex we have, the more revenue will flow. Tell me, is this as good as it gets . Competitorchina lead coming china led competitor coming into the market. Tell me how that is going to change the landscape. More competition makes life more difficult. We do believe rolling out a network in this country we have been doing this for over 20 years. It is still difficult. This is coming from a company or companies that have reasonably staffed teams of have lots of Years Experience building in difficult environments. Building of networks in this country. Aside from networks, you also have the distribution, the marketing, and a strategy execution for the market and the product piece. It is a very complex set of things. We will have to wait and see if they make good on their promises. You talked about how data is driving growth. Data accounts for 70 of your revenue. Could you quantify how much of this chunk is driven by the likes of facebook, instagram, netflix even . We do not give a specific numbers, but i can tell you video is a big driver. In video, we have to include things like youtube, which is a big driver given that the majority of the content is free. I guess the first principle you would say is the free content it creates for significant data usage. That is not to minimize the fact netflix hasect that had on services in the philippines. Market has been very good, particularly on the high end. Netflix subscriptions are pricey. Itsbook, because of embedded videos, is also very high. Brinks very high ranks very high on our list. A final question, tell me average revenue per user, and how you are to how you are trying to do more on that. You signed a memo going into the payment side of things. Where are you now with it . For signing had to do with a lot of supply chain finances. That was not part of the hope payment part of the whole payment business. Call gce we saw we cash pin as far as who is concern, it has been trending up nicely. Population who has a seemingly insatiable demand for videos and social media posts. We have seen across the three p. M. , moderate rises across the brain. We think across the brand. Growth has been in the five to seven range the last couple of years. It helps to build momentum for the business. You talked about capex, 1. 2 billion dollars for 2019. How is 2020 shaping out . Are you looking at spending more or less . Of 1. 2 billion, we expect around nine the number of 1. 2 billion, we expect around nine chai Bloomberg Markets balance of powe given the latest demand we are seeing, we intend to put more fiber on the ground. You will see a bit more of the 5g we launched in the mid part of this year. It will come into being sometime in 2020 as well. Thank you very much indeed. Joining as a collusive leave from manila. Includinge coming up, a special guest. Find out who that is in a little while. This is bloomberg. Lets have a look at what is going on in beijing. Narcotics control commission. Officials in the United States are holding a news conference. They are talking about the fentanyl drug smugglers that has been busted by a joint chinese and american a 30. We have three people being sentenced. That is where we find ourselves as the ringleader of the fentanyl syndicate was arrested along with two others. That is the scene at the moment regarding fentanyl, which has become part of the trade war. You can be watching that if you are a bloomberg subscriber by going to live go on your bloomberg terminal. Lets have a look at what we have got. This is the moment we are heading off with a lunch break. China shenzhen up. The csi 300, just below the gain line. We do have stocks in this part of the world mixed. We have reports of the signing of a partial u. S. China trade deal may be delayed a few months. This is the scene in shanghai. Haslinda you are looking at live pictures. 11 30 a. M. Inng, singapore, in the middle of the trading day. Also to come my exclusive interview. Lets get a look at first word headlines with su keenan in new york. Singapore trying the use of facial Recognition Technology to speed in checkin times and boost staff productivity. Devices can use mobile to verify their identity, eliminating the need for manual checks. It reduces waiting times 70 . Tourism councils 4 of singapores gdp. After questions arose about the unusual ability of the data, the finance minister insists the government does not interfere ising the official body reputable. The latest data shows expansion of a fraction of a percent of 5 in the third quarter, little change from the previous two periods. Cyprus is revoking the citizenship of financier and 25 people who obtained nationalities in their passport program. Scandalaccused of the of 4. 5 billion misappropriated from the malaysian investment fund. He has continued to deny it. President trumps personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani says he has hired a legal team to oversee federal scrutiny of his dealings in ukraine. Deniesr new york mayor any wrongdoing, saying his work in ukraine was as a defense attorney to defend President Trump against false charges. He added the evidence will improve the investigation is a farce and a frame up, and will show President Trump innocent. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am su keenan. This is bloomberg. Rishaad lets get to the markets. The hang seng will shut for an hour for the lunch break. In thefeeling this delay signing of the phase one trade deal. Earningsi has had dictated. Level,kes us to the cash flat to slightly positive start to the trading day on the nifty. 14 minutes before we get to the start of trading. Does this rally have legs . Brett i like the market here. We mentioned in the first segment, you are seeing apprehension and the markets keep going higher. What they said earlier, what happens when you see good news . Does the market take that next leg up . Hopefully the market is less infatuated with the trade deal. It seems the market, maybe there is reaction to that, but once we have that narrative rishaad are we coming to the end game . Brexit mayinty like be seeing light at the end of the tunnel. Brett the markets do not like uncertainty. What they can do is keep moving higher. What happens is once you get that move higher, this is an old adage, complete be counterintuitive in nature, when the rally happens, good news comes out, and we do not have uncertainty boxing everybody in. The markets move and everyone misses the move, and then they chase. I think the markets are sending a signal to people that they understand what is going on. There is softness around the world. They are looking for more quantitative easing more cheap money to come in, and that has been feeling the market for 10 years. I do not see it stopping today. Again offthis on again saudi aramco ipo, we are aaring china may be mulling 5 billion stake. What signal is being sent to the market here . Brett i think the last numbers i heard was aramco will be 1. 7 trillion valuation, no offense to the people behind the 5 billion, but that is a drop in the bucket. It sends a signal of cooperation and partnership. Its a is a huge importer of oil, it makes sense to have an alliance there. Ipo will not be a headlining event. I do not think it drives any global narrative. It is long overdone and has been talked about back and forth. Maybe it is a positive of giving more insight and visibility into saudi arabia and how things are working there, and the progress they are making. Is on the whole market changing, and the ideals of saudi arabia changing. These are positive, but it is not a global driver. 10 year if we see treasuries go to percent, a psychological level, does that change the narrative . Brett no, i do not think so. It is an equity market and will continue to be an equity market, and that is something that will give a little more warm fuzzy feeling, but it will not trigger an Asset Allocation by any means. Haslinda brett mcgonegal, chairman ceo, capital link, thank you so much for your insights today. Plenty more to come, more exclusive interviews. Bloomberg. Haslinda welcome back. You are watching Bloomberg Markets asia. Joining us exclusively is dr. Raghuram g. Rajan, professor of finance, university of Chicago Booth School of business. Alwa

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