Euro instantly snuff approaching the 110 level and keep an eye on the german 10year and the president s speech could have a Significant Impact and it really is very hard to read event. And certainly the bull market here in europe, sitting tight and waiting to see what comes out of it. Vonnie . Vonnie as we wait for the economic speech and powell speaking thursday, were joined by kumar, the Global Strategies president to tell us what we might expect. What could cause the markets to move today . You need President Trump to Say Something totally unexpected, vonnie. The usual things, the economy is doing very well, we expect growth to continue to be very rapid. Thats what hes going to say. And that hes making very Good Progress in terms of dealing. Th the chinese it he has to say hes going to sign an agreement on a certain day and hear some of the things he agreed to and on the other hand explain why it is the economy is going to do very well in the year 2020. I dont expect it. You ask for what moves the market and i think thats what you really need for the president to speak today on. Vonnie ive seen commentary to the effect you wont get a deal on china until after the election. Wouldnt it make more sense, though, for the president to have a deal going into the election for some speeches and so on . Absolutely right would make sense to an agreement and what is called, quote, unquote good agreement from the democrats and republicans in congress but it takes two to tango, you say. You cant dance for yourself and the chinese need to dance along with us and i dont know the chinese mind isnt trying to get an agreement done as fast as possible as far as they are concerned, they will keep talking, that is the Chinese Culture and doesnt mean theyre going to reach an agreement and theyll be better off with either a reelected esident trump or a crake runner when they lose a negotiating advantage. Jonathan lets talk about the stock market and price the deal in. If it doesnt get it in the near term, what happens . If it doesnt get it, guy, and that is my base assumption, it doesnt happen by the november 2020 elections and in that case the stock market takes a big correction and the bond yields which are merging at the level close to 2 once again drop bigtime. The optimism that we have had in the last 23 weeks is once again replaced by the reality that nothing much is going to get done and what happens on both equity and the bond markets. Guy u. B. S. Wealth saying the majority of the rich clients are at least 25 in cash. From what youre saying you think that number potentially should be higher. Komal that number should be higher and 25 is good. Its better than being at a much lower level for cash but whether it should be 25 or whether you should up it to 35 or 40 , you can ask the question but i think that forecast, that projection is very much in the same direction s what im going in. Vonnie why does the market keep grinding higher even with the challenges in corporate america. Komal on the trait front there is the market optimism that something will get done. Nothing will be let go even though in this administration weve not had any significant success other than passing the end of 2017 tax act. We dont have a trade agreement. We havent much achieved but then the expectation is that it will get done by the year 2020 election and that is the reason why the market is optimistic. On the fed front, the market believes that the fed will support the equity market as it has done time and time again and those are the two reasons i think why we are grinding higher. Vonnie given the premise were going to get a deal, lets just take that as a given. Will that dramatically increase trade . Because if not, why would the markets rally on that . Komal the reason the rally happens is once you have a trade deal, even if trade doesnt pick up in a big way, vonny, you at least have an uncertainty removed in terms of your investment plans. And Large Companies with china exposure such as google and apple, for instance, can continue with their business on the expectation that they can continue to make the investments and they will come in and they are looking ahead 2 5 years. And it does make sense, going with your assumption a trade deal does get done and that those circumstances, it does make sense to be very optimistic. The question is, does it happen . Guy in the near term, though, would you be selling industrial stocks . One of the key things happening at the moment is corporations are not investing, they are not buying equipment, the cap excycle grinding to a halt. If youre saying we have to wait another year, presumably were not going to see a pickup in some of those businesses, the earnings arent going to improve because at the moment the market is trading the other way, you would reverse that trade . Komal i would say the market for industrials is not going to pick up in a big way in 2020 and i think this is going to be, if anything, get worse as the economy slows, guy, we all know the manufacturing in the United States is entering a recession and the Consumer Sentiment numbers have not been strong and when you put it together, i think once the Consumer Spending joins what you talk about in terms of investment spending you have a doublewhammy on the economy and thats not good for industrial stocks. Guy ok. On that front then, germany, well talk more in a few minutes time but germany has been a huge outperformer. The auto sector in europe is up 12 over the last month. Again, you think thats too much, right . Komal well, that is based on the assumption that President Trump will not impose an auto tariff which would be a particular negative for the German Economy but also for the rest of europe. And that seems to be very much the case but interestingly now, guy, you have stories on Bloomberg News which talk about china being the next country that the germans have to worry about because the chinese economy is slowing sharply and most of the exports headed to china and are likely to be negatively impacted. So i think you have the the problems are not over yet even though as you said, the auto sector in europe has benefited from a cessation of the start of war between the u. S. And germany. Vonnie stay right there. We have much to talk about. The president of komar Global Strategies stays with us. Ets check in on the news with kailey. Kailey 20 first graders and six educators died in the sandy hook act and there is a appeal on the gunmaker remmington and they say it shields manufacturers from lawsuits so those products arent used in crime. Elizabeth warren will combat misinformation. The democratic president ial candidate is taking aim at exxonmobil and they sent millions to spread information about climate change. Exxon has rejected those claims. Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez is forming a coalition to break the local deadlock. An czyzs socialist party will team up and put an end to months of squabbling between the left wing parties. In australia, the threat from bush fires has gotten worse and theyre bearing down on Rural Communities along the east coast while meanwhile a fire broke out in the suburb of sydney and strong winds and temperatures make the fires more dangerous. Global news 24 hours a day on tictock on twitter and powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im keiley leinz, this is bloomberg. Jonathan coming up tomorrow at 11 00 a. M. Eastern, join us for special coverage of the chair Jerome Jerome powells address to the Economic Committee and stay with bloomberg as we count you down to President Trumps remarks in new york coming up 12 00 p. M. Eastern time and 5 00 p. M. Here in london. This is bloomberg. Dd vonnie live from hong kong. More unrest on the streets. Tonight were seeing protest at the university on the outskirts of the city university. The violence continues. Were going to keep our eye on that and monitor through the night and into tomorrow. Lets check markets with abigail doolittle. Abigail modest gains,. 4 , near session highs, this of course ahead of President Trump speaking at the new York Economic Club at noon, everyone wondering what could come out of that speech especially as it relates to trade. The stock 600 doing equally well and we do have outperformance and the chip sector, look at the stocks in the u. S. , up about 3 4 of 1 and has a lot to do with bullish reports out of some of the european suppliers or chip companies. Lets look at the individual movers beneath the surface and here in the u. S. And in europe. We see that marvel up 3. 9 and sky works, thats an apple supplier as well. Theres been bullish analyst commentary there but where we really have gains, dialogue and the European Apple suppliers and chip companies, those up 6 and both those Companies Beat estimates and dialogue relatively constructive relative to the future, raising targets and infinion cautious but investors liking it. We have a bullish run for another risk, the oil looking at an eightday chart on oil up six out of the last eight days and right now vonnie, oil, the Fourth Quarter, up more than 6 on paper, its best quarter since march of this year, perhaps the gains continue and could be the best quarter of the year. All this, vonnie, as the dollar is climbing. A very interesting dynamic. Again, we have a risk on scenario with oil and stocks limbing. Vonnie thank you. We just saw photos out of hong kong with unrest continuing as one of the more violent days of the protest in the last 12 hours. What are the unexpected events that might trigger some kind of market reaction, whether it be in asia or in europe or here. Are there any keeping you up at night . Guy you have to w5u67 for two things taking place and im glad you asked the question, vonny, because i think it is a topic that is not very much discussed. We talk about the u. S. China trade issues but we dont talk about hong kong as much and how it impacts on u. S. And cheap. I think it has a big influence and this is what could happen. If the chinese finally lose patience, especially this weekend and the dousing of what went up in flames and also the demonstrations increasing if the chinese send their own forces across the water into hong kong, the democrats in congress are going to react. And there is already a consideration as to whether hong kong should lose its special trading privileges and that would be very serious not only for hong kong but the mainland as well. Thats the one thing. But can the chinese tolerate the continuation of the demonstrations . It shows a sign of weakness for other smaller pricings that the chinese have within the mainland itself. So it is a dilemma for the chinese leadership. Vonnie in this environment are you advising clients to stay away from the region or to get n inzriment anytimely or what . Indiscriminatelyly or what . Komar if it is resolved peacefully youll have a big opportunity with the runup in terms of the equity prices. On the other hand, if it is a negative outcome, with lets say the forces going into hong kong, then youre waiting for the dust to settle and for the equity markets to come down before you go at it in a big way. So either way youre going to do ok but the watch word is patient and really dont move yet. Guy the long term damage has been done and banks are looking at moving people out and will only make shanghai a more popular destination and only make singapore a more popular destination and is the demise of hong kong, isnt it . Komal very negative for hong kong and i agree the two major beneficiaries as Financial Centers are going to be shanghai and singapore, both of which i think are going to benefit. Interestingly, even though shanghai is very much on the chinese mainland, the fact it is on the mainland, everything is known, there is no uncertainty about it is a big positive for shanghai which hong kong does not have. And in addition to that and considering also the topics that vonnie raised, what happens to the hong kong u. S. Dollar peg . If the hong kong dollar loses the peg as a result of capital outflows, that again is a major uncertainty and that again would be detrimental to hong kong so i think unless something is done within the next few months, it doesnt look very good on the hong kong side. Guy what impact is it having on the chinese economy . Hong kong is a major conduit for dollars into the chinese economy. So therefore the fact this is happening and the fact we have the same things shown on screens like ours now, will it affect that availability . Komal it doesnt affect the mainland very much for the fact money goes in the mainland and i think suffering, if anything in terms of capital flows will be exclusively on the hong kong side, guy, not on the mainland because whether it is resolved with the Chinese Forces going into hong kong or it is resolved without that taking place, the chinese future over the medium term, the next 1020 years is going to remain very bright irrespective of how this is resolved. So i think the mainland continues to profit and then with the Large Population growing middle class and the demand for international products, a global firm cannot afford to be in china or consider that market. Vonnie the headline we may have a spanish government, some kind of an umbrella government, with all the play fragmentation and coming together of various different factions in many countries in europe, what would be your best idea now for europe . Komal if youre looking for the longer term youre going to have a lot of opportunities. Im very bullish on europe even as the whole region goes into a recession because the values are much better than in the United States in terms of the equity market valuation and longer term, the europeans have to do something about the declining, aging population and whether youre talking about the euro zone in terms of the difficulties attached or the u. K. Dealing with brexit, i think if you have a fiveyear perspective, you should be very optimistic on europe so i feel very positive about it. Vonnie srikumar being optimistic is a nice change. Thanks for visiting from Global Strategies. Still ahead, dell changing gears and how the company is looking to rebound its business and work force. This is bloomberg. Vonnie from new york, im vonnie quinn. Guy this is bloomberg markets. Lets bring in taylor riggs on fresh news from dell. What do we know . Taylor getting announcements from dell. Well call it Dell Technologies on demand. Its a payasyougo Subscription Service. Dell typically, you can pay a business that pay as lot of expenses out front for the hardware and lowers those expenses over time. This will be a change in model where customers or businesses dont have to pay as much up front but are going to more of a monthly based Subscription Service in order to view some of that hardware or call service on demand, a payasyougo service. This is sort of a model we heard from, like the cloud companies, like in amazon and microsoft and analysts really like this structure and the recurring revenue, every month youre getting revenue coming in so this is sort of modeling off of that subscription model so Dell Technology is transitioning this morning. Theyre saying at Gardner Research firm is saying 15 of Data Center Hardware deals will be on a pay per user pricing. That five years, 2022 up from 1 currently in about 2019, so youre going to start to see a little bit of this shift. Dell saying they expect customers to pay up front for a lot of the hardware but including this is a full package as well. Vonnie how would this differentiate from amazon and microsoft . Taylor amazon and microsoft have been using this as part of their Cloud Software service so del wanting to be a full comprehensive hardware package here but using that same model so you pay less up front but continue to pay that monthly Subscription Service. Im curious to think what the analysts think about this because as the news is breaking in the last 20 minutes or so, im curious to see analysts like this shift to see if that model weve seen from some of the big tech players in the Cloud Services can transition and shift on over here to hardware and if they like that. Because typically investors and analysts really like that recurrent subscription model and im curious to see if its seen as positive as well. Vonnie del up. 6 and has been for this session and thanks to bloombergs taylor riggs and catch her every day at 5 00 eastern or 2 00 p. M. San francisco time. Its time for the Bloomberg Business flash and look at the biggest business stories in the news. Nissan is struggling to get back on track a year after the arrest of former chairman carlos gomes. The japanese automaker slashed its sales for the current year and nissan withdrew its dividends outlook, a blow to the top shareholder renault. Giant american milk producer dean foods filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. The company also in advance talks with Dairy Farmers of america about a potential sale. Dean foods has been losing money since they lost the biggest customer, walmart. For the year americans have been drinking less cow milk and competition has frozen margins. Jetblue is vowing to rising Competitive Pressure now offering a no frills option that cant be changed or canceled. You board the plane last. Jetblue feeling the heat from spirit and frontier. The larger carries such as delta and american adopted the bear bones basic fares several years ago. Vonnie thats your latest Bloomberg Business flash. Guy . Guy vonnie, still ahead well talk about the streaming world as a whole new world. Disney streaming Service Goes Live and how does it stack up against the competition and can they keep the price point which is incredibly low, it seems, and still make money . Well talk more about this. Well also be talking more about the impact on these markets. This is bloomberg. I here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help . A data plan for everyone. Everyone . Everyone. Lets send to everyone [ camera clicking ] wifi up there . Ahhh. Sure, why not . Howd he get out . a camera might figure it out. That was easy glad i could help. At xfinity, were here to make life simple. Easy. Awesome. So come ask, shop, discover at your xfinity store today. Vonnie im vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg markets. Guy vonnie, lets talk about what is happening today in the streaming wars. A major event taking place, the streaming showdown really heating up and disney plus goes online. The price tag just 6. 99 a month, dollars, that is, and undercuts of course big rivals like netflix and amazon by a couple bucks. But its more expensive than huleue and apple tv plus. The Family Focus Service features at least 25 new tv shows and 10 new films in the first year. Of course that goes alongside the huge disney archive. Now its probably the most important Product Launch in bob igers time as c. E. O. And probably the riskiest. Igor built its reputation with pixar back in 2006 and marvel in 2009 and of course lucas film in 2012. This year he bought most of 21st century fox and still trying to figure out how that one is going. Disney is still on the back foot when it comes to streaming. Tflix, hulu all have budgets for next year and iger is not letting that worry him, though. When we asked what the service means for his legacy, he said, quote, too late to worry about that now. Words to live by. Onnie . Vonnie dipping into it a little more deeply. We have a green day today. We await for the president to speak but the state of the industry has been a diversion this week and bring in somebody ho now knows a lot about it, testing the material, how is disney plus, terry . Terry off to a rough start and people are having issues logging in, myself personally, i had trouble actually using the service this morning which is a bit surprising. This is probably the biggest, most high profile thing disney has done for years and had a lot of time to think about it and prepare but streaming is hard. Weve seen it happen with h. B. O. And they had to stream game of thrones and is much more difficult and complex than just putting something on traditional television. Brett can they make money at 6. 99 . Gerry it will take time. I think theyll lose money. Disney said it wont be profitable until 2024. Theyre looking at getting as many as 90 million subscribers by then, 6. 99 is a very compelling price point when you think of the other services in the market, netflix, hbo max are more expensive. I think the idea is to just get as many people subscribing to this service as quickly as possible and then over time, you know, they will turn a profit. Vonnie we know streaming is difficult and very technically complicated but at the same time disney is a Massive Player and has the resources to do this right. What was the problem, did it start aearly, was november 12 too early to get going with this, were they not ready or some other problem to do with the service . Gerry disney hasnt commented so far as i know what is causing the technical glitches. This is very surprising because the company they bought a controlling stake in is called bam tech, a Technology Company that is known as the best in the industry. They became famous for Major League Baseball streaming service and done a lot of other live sports streaming and you know, so disney obviously had a lot of time to prepare for this day, and they have the best in the business running the back end of their streaming service so i think a lot of people are surprised it had some glitches but if this goes away in a few hours, you know, it probably wont have much of an effect on the streaming service and number of subscribers they get over time. Guy is the bundle dead and what does it mean for espn . Gerry i dont think the bundle is dead and theres still about 90 Million People subscribing to Pay Tv Service around the country but that number is shrinking each quarter. You know, espn is actually a big reason why a lot of people still subscribe to Cable Service so as long as the really high profile live sports are still on espn and espn is still something that you have to get through your paid tv subscription, i think there still will be tens of millions subscribing to paid tv. But that number is shrinking and the number of are core cutters who dont get cable and just sign up for the growing number of streaming services in the market, thats increasing. So over time i think the cable bundle is like a slowly melting ice cube thats going to continue to decline. But i wouldnt say its dead just yet. Vonnie thank you, gerry. The disney statement out a little while ago, just a few minutes ago said, and im quoting, the consumers demand for disney plus has exceeded our High Expectations and were working to quickly resolve the current user issue. We appreciate your patience. So disney blaming it on too many people trying to use the service and stock is up 1. 5 right now. Thanks to our Bloomberg Media reporter gerry smith. Now lets check in on the first news with mark crumpton. Mark police in hong kong warn the city is on the brink after total breakdown. For the second straight day they fired tear gas in the financial district and battled with protesters. Mondays demonstrations led to about 260 arrests and left almost 100 people injured. President trump is expected to delay imposing tariffs on european cars. Last spring the president said he would decide on the tariffs by the middle of this month. In return, the European Union threatened to retaliate with duties on 39 billion of american goods. Bloomberg learned efforts by german automakers to highlight their new investments in the u. S. Have helped in negotiations. Israel has assassinated a Senior Commander of the Islamic Jihad group in gaza city. Abu el strike killed atta described as the mastermind of several attacks on soldiers and civilians and a response rockets were blasted. President carter has fallen three times this year and had hip replacement surgery in the spring. Hes 95 years old. Global news 24 hours a day on air and tictock and twitter powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. Vonnie . Vonnie mark, thank you. Coming up, data flashes warning signs and we speak with the executive director about tariffs and the trade war. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Guy from london, im guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. Lets talk about trade. A new study shows tariffs threaten nearly 1. 5 million u. S. Jobs and more than 186 billion in Economic Activity nationwide. The potential risks are based on the impacts tariffs have had on cargo handled by the port of los angeles. For more now on that study and the wider picture and what its going to do to the l. A. Port which is critical to the u. S. Economy, lets bring in the executive director gene seroca who joins us exclusively now from washington. The president is going to be speaking at noon today in new york. At the Economic Club of new york. Hes going to talk about trade. What would you like to hear him say . That weve rescinded all tariffs in the transpacific theater with china and were moving ahead in the Business Community to give them certainty. Guy do you think hes going to say that and if he doesnt say that, kind of walk out of a 2020 anticipating, what do you think the Current Situation is going to look like Going Forward from here . Do you think its going to get worse or better . Gene three questions there, i dont think hell say that today. Never in our history have we been in a 360degree negotiating posture. Weve not heard much in our deliberation with the e. U. Since last august. We continue to batter along with respect to the usmca with our greatest trading partners canada and mexico. And in the news every day is our back and forth with china. So that is quite disconcerting itself. As we look forward we see a very soft Fourth Quarter as exemplified by our numbers in the month of october, down 19 year over year from an all time high for a monthly basis last year at this time and that was really driven by an advance of inventories ahead of tariffs that were stated to happen on january 1. Folks got really nervous, spread a lot of inventory in. As we look downline, without business certainty, how do the folks know where to invest their money and how to hire . Thats a difficult question to answer, and from what we understand through reports just yesterday, u. S. Companies are holding 2. 2 trillion on their Balance Sheets in cash and thats showing that there is a lack of investment in capex as well as talent. Vonnie youre the number one in container ports in north america and do worth 300 billion in cargo value. You say with every one container gained from new locations now were losing 2 1 2 containers from china. How much of that is directly elated to this tariff war . Gene 100 . Vonnie if thats the case and we are picking up from other places could we potentially increase the pickup from other places to offset the china effect . Gene i dont think so. It takes up to seven vietnams to make up for cargo and thats a lot when you multiply that across southeast and south Asian Companies it will take a number of years for the migration of sourcing to take hold and we said there would be three potential outcomes and one higher prices to consumers and weve seen that to the extent even through the l. A. Gateway, 31 billion to 35 billion u. S. Dollars in consumer hits have taken place already, higher prices for you and me. Second is what i just covered and that is what does the company do at this point in time . Are they absorbing these additional costs and slowing down on investment and hiring . We think so as well. And lastly shifting trade patterns. Weve seen doubledigit rises of imports from southeast Asian Companies but are small numbers off decades of relationships in china. You dont just move supply chains overnight. Guy are you actually seeing an overall downturn in the amount of tonnage going through your ports . Last year was a record, wasnt it . Is this year going to be higher or lower than that number . Gene right now with such a soft Fourth Quarter projection, guy, we see the numbers coming in a little lower than they did last year for our all time record in 12 years of doing 112 years of doing business. Guy were at relatively elevated levels here and im curious because it sounds incredibly positive but what youre saying about the trade narrative sounds negative but two things dont necessarily gel. Gene we hit a cliff as i mentioned in the month of october, volume is down 19 . Were looking at a 10 downturn in lift in the month of november and december has yet to be reckoned with but we see that being soft as well. So again, leading up to last year, number three consecutive years of all time records at the port of los angeles through strong investment and a very aggressive marketing policy. Now what were seeing are the real impacts of this trade policy. Vonnie it if youre able to wait it out if there is the possibility trade resumes a little bit towards previous levels that it might be actually better for the United States and for the port of los angeles . Gene ill again say that from our standpoint, were behind everything to make the American Companies stronger on the platform of International Trade and create those great jobs that are associated with them. Port jobs in particular paid better than average. All of that is very positive. But the remedies of which have been used arent necessarily what we would project going into the future. Were not going to hang on. Were going to continue to be very assertive in our marketing plans and trying to earn cargo from new locations. We worked very closely with customers to acquire that new business and were going to push through even though what weve witnessed has been 12 consecutive months of export declines. Vonnie have you had to let go of staff or had Union Problems as a direct result this and what about gig workers or contract workers you might use from time to time. Gene no across the board but less cargo means less jobs and were concerned with a longer lasting trade war will lead to just that. Guy lets circle back to the beginning and if the president were to hit your words, well roll back everything, whats the lag between him saying that and you seeing extra tonnage coming through the port of los angeles . Gene it will take some time, guy, because realistically china has found other countries from which to source their goods, whether it be soy beans, recyclables or heavy duty machinery. Those contracts will go into the future. So its not going to be just a flip of the switch and tonnage coming right back to our gateway, ward collectively thro the government as well as through our commercial partners in order to earn that cargo back. Guy do you see any evidence of fruntrunning the december 12 tariffs or do you think there is a belief that those tariffs will not go into place . December 15, sorry. Gene ive not seen any evidence of fruntrunning on the december 15 tariff milestone. Mainly because our inventory levels in the United States continue to be very high. In southern california, we boast the largest infrastructure complex of warehousing with more than 1 1. 8 billion of square feet of Distribution Centers in the country. And that in and of itself has the 3 vacancy rate today which is twice the national average. So realistically speaking, we here in america need to drive down those inventories before well start seeing an uptick in imports again. Vonnie you mentioned the downturn of 19. 6 in the overall movement of containers in october and 25 drops in ships cold, are you able to see whats happening, are they idling in other ports or working just moving goods to nd from other countries . Gene a little bit of both. We see trying to match capacity with demand and utilizing those vessels with other locations and slowing them down for the next rotation of imports coming into the u. S. Vonnie thank you for the update and database real time update on whats going on with the china trade war. Do come back again soon, gene seroka, executive director of port of los angeles. European ought as are among the best gainers today on the dow 600 in hopes for a delay on u. S. Tariff it is they happen at all. Our stock of the hour not faring so well. Nissan motors reported a sharp decline in sales. And the healthy dividend pay out may be at risk. Abigail doolittle has the numbers. Abigail the quarter, they missed the results and cut the outlook and the dividend outlook is now on hold and appear to be two big factors. First of all, carlos gomes scandal and second of all, an industry wide scandal or slump, not scandal, slump relative to the quarter, numbers really going in the wrong direction for operating profit, it was down 85 which is really pretty extraordinary. Net income down 74 and they cut the outlook by 35 and car sales plunged by 300,000 and ugly numbers here and also their diffident outlook is on hold and they cut that earlier this year becaus the carlos gomes scandal and because of that you have to imagine theyve taken their eye off the is also an industry wide slump especially abroad for these japanese carmakers, mazda and honda did rather poorly. Toyota is the one winner in his space. Vonnie thank you. Stock of the hour. Guy . Guy you can see it in markets, volumes are very light, we are also seeing the dollar, to be honest, barely budging. What will the president say . Stocks are a little bit higher today. Treasuries reopening. Barely budging to be honest. Were all ready for the president. Well get a take from the c. M. E. Next. This is bloomberg. Vonnie live from new york, im vonnie quinn. Guy from london, im guy johnson. This is bloomberg markets. Lets talk about probably the biggest event risk of the day. We are waiting for the president to speak at noon eastern time. Joining us now from the c. M. E. , the founder of auctionpick. Com. Mark, walk us through what everybody is waiting for. How big of an event is this . Does he stick to the script i guess is the question. Mark i mean, it should probably just be a speed bump either way where, you know, we move along after he gets done talking but you just never know when hes going to throw a curveball on markets. Hes been sitting here throwing lobs and the market has been hitting home runs for the last month. Now the s p is up, which is where he gauges his presidency a lot, we could absolutely see him maybe sound a little more hawkish today in which case you would see equity markets pull back and treasury yields fall significantly and so if he comes in and sounds hawkish, then look out. I think you could see the 10year gain a decent amount of strength today. Guy the vix is trading 12. 3 and is that logical, the market seems to be short, where do you see it going . Mark if you look where vix and vix futures are priced, theyre looking at a decent amount of complacency and Little Movement between now and christmas. The entire vix term structure is pointing towards hey, china probably, you know, seems to be kind of figured out at least for now. Theres no new land mines. Were through earnings. Economic data seems to be out of the way. The fed is out of the way. I would point out that really i think the biggest curveball for the week could be coming out of germany. Theyre announcing their g. D. P. On thursday and if that is a big miss it could throw a giant kind of set the wheels in motion for a complete change in the treasury yield curve, the vix and equity markets because that will cause a major shift in trading. Guy explain that a little bit. Everybody is expecting germany to be in recession. Thats what the g. D. P. Numbers probably will say. Why will that throw a curveball and a little worse than expected, will that really upset things and if it is, is that because it would accelerate the process of maybe some sort of fiscal policy coming out of berlin . Mark yes, exactly right, if that is worse than expected it sets berlin in motion and moves around treasureally that yield curve is moving around so wildly that when stuff is happening in europe, not so much when stuff is happening in the United States, europe has really been the dog and the United States bonds have been the tail of that dog. So we could see a lot of the u. S. Recession speculation coming out of really actions taken by the European Central bank which could then cause the vix to start to rally and cause equity markets to pull back and cause a decent bid in u. S. Treasuries. And so i actually think that is a relatively significant number on the week, probably eclipsing what the president is going to say unless, again, he throws that big hawkish curveball. Guy well wait and watch and theres a fiscal policy that will send bund yields higher to what you have set and talk about it another time. Looking for that number on thursday and Mark Sebastian joining us from optionpit. Com. Vonnie . Vonnie a look at the biggest business stories in the news now in business flash. The jaguar owner land rover is looking for strategic partners. Bloomberg has learned carmakers including b. M. W. And indias conglomerate wants to share the burden in investing in electric vehicles. The sales growth for votophone and a boost for nick breed, increases in revenue will generate cash for pay for Network Investments and also is needed with the buildup of their purchase of liberty assets. Vodafone operates in the middle east and asia. Two hottest Commodity Markets are diverging. Singapore ranked number one in real estate and hong kong plunged to the bottom after government protests according to p. W. C. Coming up, well be speaking with alberto gallo. This is bloomberg. Beyond the routine checkups. Beyond the notsoroutine cases. Comcast business is helping doctors provide care in whole new ways. All working with a new generation of technologies powered by our gigspeed network. Because beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. To do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Guy trading ahead of trump. The president will speak in the next hour. We will be live at the Economic Club of new york for that speech. European car stocks rise ahead of trump. The sector is up 11 over the last month. If the president delays auto tariffs, will this sector keep on motoring . And boeings bounce up. The company has just published delivery and order numbers. We will analyze those over the next few minutes. Live from london, im guy johnson, with vonnie quinn in new york. We are counting you down to the european close right here on bloomberg markets. Vonnie we have topped 3100 on the s p 500, up about 0. 4 . A little optimism in todays market before that speech from course,t trump, and of testimony from fed chair jay powell coming up as well. Disney is up 1. 5
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