Out within the have and havenots of retail, the targets versus the macys and jcpenneys. We have the oecd cutting its Global Growth forecast for this year, in particular germany. They see growth up there just 0. 4 . But the market goes nowhere. The markets really want to drive higher here. For globalow exchange, where we bring you todays market moving news from all around the world, from beijing to new york to atlanta. Our bloomberg voices are on the ground with this mornings top stories. In china, top trade negotiator liu he says he is cautiously optimistic on a trade deal. Shawn donnan joins us from beijing. Whatever we learned so far from china . Shawn we learned that liu he, the vice premier, has been sending out some positive signals. What is important about that is at comes at a time when some folks in the market and some folks close to the talks are warning that these talks are in a pretty fragile state and could fall apart still. Liu he, as part of a visiting delegation last night, still remains optimistic that a deal can be done is pretty important. Alix thank you so much. Staying with the Bloomberg NewEconomy Forum in beijing, weve been speaking with top executives in the business world. Hears the former director of the u. S. Economic council on the current state of u. S. China trade. I think we are having a trade skirmish. I think the two sides have disagreements on trade, and if you look at whats going on, the two countries are functioning. Theres a lot of trade still going back and forth. Alix joining us now is bloombergs Francine Lacqua in beijing. Youve been there talking to world leaders. Whats been the overwhelming theme for you . Francine gary cohn was one of the more optimistic we spoke to. Risk of a catastrophic conflict were some of the warnings we had from Henry Kissinger and bill gates. The mood here shifted a little bit after we also saw the bill targeting hong kong protests, and people were trying to figure out exact a what it meant for their supply chains and exactly where it goes from here. Gary cohn also said President Trump understands how important it is to get farmers back in the growing cycle, which is why gary cohn was saying it was a skirmish, trying to downplay it, but says it is a nobodys interest to stay on for much longer. He is also expecting a phase i deal. So i would say a lot of caution here, but some hope that something will happen in the next couple of weeks. Alix thank you very much. The new Economy Forum is being organized by Bloomberg Media, a division of bloomberg lp, the Parent Company of Bloomberg News. Charles schwab is said to be in talks to purchase Td Ameritrade. For more, Sonali Bassett joins us on the phone for more, sonali basak joins us on the phone. Remember, Td Ameritrade is down almost 15 on the year. We all know that the zero fee war has really been pressuring all of these brokers, and you see the Business Model changing here. Not surprising that firms are emerging are merging. What is surprising is that it is ameritrade and not e trade. To thehe fed says risks outlook associated with global asking i drove Global Economic growth and trade were significant and would further on the economy. With us is michael mckee. What were some of the big takeaways for you . Michael no surprise that the fed cut rates. A majority of the committee did agree that those risks were prominent and still in place. However, they went on to say that maybe all we needed was one more rate cut. After the rate cut, they were pretty confident the economy would continue growing. It showed most participants judge that Monetary Policy would that,l calibrated after and likely would remain so as long as incoming information about the economy did not result in a real reassessment of the economic outlook. Some officials did prefer to leave rates standing at the meeting because there forecast were that the economy or that the economy because their forecasts were that the economy didnt need additional stimulus. One or two, according to the people who translate fed speak, said cutting rates could raise Financial Stability risks. There were some interesting aspects to the minutes. All of the brisbanes judged that negative Interest Rates did not appear in the nearterm and judgedt ash all of them them judged that negative Interest Rates did not appear in the near term be effective. As they continue to raise the size of the Balance Sheet, they probably wouldnt need it, although it could become a useful backstop. Still, they decided to put off a decision on whether to institute it or not. Alix thank you very much. Democrats held a 50 debate in atlanta. Here are some of the highlights from last night. Sen. Warren i have proposed a 0. 02 wealth tax for everyone 150 millionthan in assets. Sen. Booker i dont agree with the wealth tax. Sen. Sanders they have lied and lied and lied. We should be vocally speaking be mr. Biden we should vocally speaking out about the violation of the commitment that they may to hong kong. Kevin cirilli is with us now. Kevin people to badge come the south bend mayor pete ,uttigieg, the south bend mayor didnt really go after joe biden, senator warren, or even Bernie Sanders. Instead, his most Tense Exchange came from tulsi gabbard. Beyond that, senator Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders doing what they needed to do, according to the respect of surrogates, after the debate in the spin room to maintain the status quo of the race so far. Beyond that point, the talk of the spin room wasnt so much the debate itself, but bad in washington, the impeachment hearing that is moved into more intense stages following the testimony of European Union abbasid or ordinance on blend. Union ambassador gordon sondland. Alix thank you so much. The Financial Times is reporting that lewis bacon, the Legendary Hedge Fund manager, is actually planning to set his firm and return capital to investors. That comes after three decades. He has made some huge, successful bets over those last three decades. He made an 86 gain in the 1990s when he bet against the japanese market and a 45 gain in 1992 when the european Rate Exchange meccas and collapsed. These were big Exchange Mechanism collapsed. These were big contrarian bets that paid off. It is sort of a legend in the market, lewis bacon, closing on mooreapital on capital. We do want to recap macys, not a beat and not a raise, very different from other retailers. That stuck down 6 in premarket. They missed on earnings and samestore sales, and the guidance is lower for comp sales, as well as earnings. A gloomy day for macys. They say they are positive and they feel good about their holiday strategy. Their outlook does not say that. Coming up on this program, much more of your morning trade and analysis and all of the news in todays first take. This is bloomberg. And then of course we have the external conflict, the issues of the rising of the great power in the form of china rising, and the United States having its relative decline. So we are at a point, i think, that is very similar to 1944. Theres ariod of war, period of peace because nobody wants to fight the country that won the war, and theres a new world order. Alix that was bridgewater founder a ray dalio speaking in beijing. Time now for bloomberg first take. We are going to give you the news. You get the trade and analysis from our inhouse team of wall street traders and veterans. Damian sassower, vincent cignarella, and joining us, marvin loh, state street global macro strategist. I had a plan on trade, but then lewis this news that capital. Closing moore you will have stories about this. Vincent oh man. They were one of the most Significant Players in the 1980s, 1990s. Wonderful story about Moore Capital. We are sitting like everyone on the street waiting for the o. J. Simpson verdict, and nothing was moving, and the verdict came out. All of a sudden, the dollar collapses. Why would the dollar move on o. J. Simpson . Moore capital used to deal through dean witter back in the day, and he hit the street with about 1 billion and sunk the street, just sunk the dollar, and took it all back and made a huge profit. I was out to dinner that night with three traders, banks that dont even exist anymore. [laughter] lostnt between them, they 2. 5 million on that trade by dealing with dean witter through re capital. Marvin when that line lit up with Moore Capital, that was the best call you could ever have. It just speaks to the challenges that hedge funds are having in this environment. Im not surprised. They are one of the original big three, with soros and tutor. Some of the recent struggles, at all comes from i think. Marvin and it is probably something that we are all going to have to be dealing with. You got Central Banks saying they are going to do nothing, so everyone is going through their 2020, with their big themes for next year. One of the themes out there is that maybe there arent that many themes next year. It is just harder and harder to differentiate yourself. Etfs are taking the position of the biggest part of the market, and you get stories like this breaking. Alix and it sort of ties into the overall lacko. Thegot Charles Schwab overall macro. Youve got Charles Schwab, Td Ameritrade potentially merging. Central Bank Balance Sheets are starting to expand. We see the biggest in six months here in the u. S. Vincent so much of this is electronic trading and transparency. Alix thats more of an issue than negative rates in the macro . Vincent thats why you have no fees and why everything is shrinking. Everyone knows where the price is. There was a time when, if you wanted to know what the price of an asset class was, you had to take risk. You had to execute. You had to be in it to know. ,ow everyone knows where it is so the game has changed considerably. Theres no reward for the risk. Marvin the flipside of that, you cant argue that transparency ultimately is good for the consumer, if you will, whether it is the amazon effect, the fact that the regular consumer actually has data on Corporate Bonds now, on muni bonds. Hasing around equities really brought down commission structures. Thats not bad. It just shows how hard it is. Vincent im not saying its bad. Its just that this is the new order. Marvin absolutely. Vincent i would like to have some transparency when i go buy a car, actually. [laughter] damian if you see the big Central Banks, their Balance Sheets have been declining for the better part of the last year and a half, 12 can take it of months of cumulative Balance Sheet decline. It is now moved back into positive territory. That is the stimulus story. Anybody who is calling for a bearish dollar in 2020, that is the foundation for that bearish dollar call. Marvin after the fed effectively took negative rates, thank goodness, off the table, Recession Risk is pushed out. But if we get there, there certainly arent that many bullets left. Whats left if you dont go into negative rates is bigger and billing is bigger and bigger Balance Sheets. Then does trade matter . It is not just me. There were some reports in blue brick opinion that you have everyone talking about trade disaster, but in reality, if the central bank Balance Sheet is expanding in a low yielding world with no fees, that is going to be a bigger changer than Something Like this. And i wrong . Itmatters because damian matters because we are talking about the quality, not the price of money. Especially for positive yield. Like china have in u. S. , rate differentials have driven the movement in dollaryuan. That broke down in april . Why that broke down in april. Why . Trade elements. Assets are now decidedly skewed the other way. A lot of those relationships are decoupled. If trade tension dies down remains to be seen, but i think the trade develop its are here to stay. Vincent we are going to talk about this a little bit later, but if you look at china gdp in the bloomberg commodity index, they are incredible he correlated. Essentially, what it is telling you is the trade war is affecting china gdp, but more the price of stuff is affecting chinas gdp. They sibley cannot produce enough to keep up with the growth of their economy with the size of their Balance Sheets, and with the debt that they have, and a lot of that we dont know. As the price of commodities ls. L, there gdp fal marvin a lot of analysts are talking about these longerterm trends. Demographics, centralbank efficacy, what happens with all of this liquidity in a world where no one really understands how it floats around. Whether the future is now, talking about stagnation more than we have before. Centralbank efficacy is certainly something the Central Banks themselves are talking about. Damian eventually that stimulus has to go somewhere. Marvin absolutely. So is the future now, where all of debt doesnt have the effect on the real economy . It certainly has had an effect on assets, and terms of what we deal with on a daytoday basis, but the concern with trade is eventually, it does make its way into the numbers. The disparity between income as a result of trade potentially collapsing makes its way into numbers. Vincent you will have to ask yourself, if it doesnt make its way into the real economy, it is only making its way into asset prices, at some point a reversion has to happen. I the economy needs to float higher either the economy needs to float higher to where the asset prices are, or asset prices need to fall. Alix i feel like weve been saying that for a decade, and we are at the point where the market just once to move higher. This brings us back to moore. When you have a bull run for over 10 years, any pullback just keeps getting absorbed, and more capital and moore closes. Vincent thats the disparity between real economy and asset prices. When the hedge funds who live and breathe off of this stuff cant make it, they cant close that gap. Inevitably, the rest of the world is going to have to close it. Alix i also wonder if it means he is not seeing huge dislocations. He made a lot of money in the 1990s with bids against japan. Theres no big dislocation thats actually going to play out in the market. Increased regulatory cost, the difficulty of the fundraising environment as opposed to those that are larger, like blackrock, that adds up at the end of the day. To go back to what the markets are telling us, i have to say come of new shortterm europe benchmark that jumped overnight, when we talk about plumbing and the markets and where things might be, that is one place that caught my attention. Its only been around since october, and that is a pretty big move overnight. That means banks are coming to the market, short cash. We are getting to year end here, and that is a risk. Alix you can make it shortterm, but you need a standing repo. Thanks, guys. I really appreciate it. Damian sassower and vincent cignarella, things a lot. Marvin loh of state street will be sticking with me. A reminder, all of the charts we are using over the next two hours, you can go to gtv on your terminal and browse the features. Shutting down Moore Capital after 30 years and returning investments. This is bloomberg. Viviana youre watching bloomberg daybreak. We begin with the blockbuster brokeragen the Online Business between Charles Schwab and Td Ameritrade. According to foxbusiness, it is for 26 billion in a deal that will be announced. Analysts predicted a wave of consolidation could take place. Paypal will spend about 4 billion for online coupon site honey science. About 17 Million People use or web browser extensions to find discounts at Online Shopping sites. Carlyle group considering a bid for the iconic british bookmaker british boot maker doc martin. Bloomberg has learned carlisle is in the early stages of deliberations. Other bidders could emerge. Alix another Company Story that caught my eye, General Motors stunning Fiat Chrysler with a racketeering lawsuit. Late fiatmplicates ceo Sergio Marchionne in a scheme that has landed others in jail. It claims that Fiat Chrysler bribed the uae for competitive advantages. Fiat chrysler denies those allegations. Still, a stunning develop that shows just how hard it is for Car Companies out there right now. Coming up on the program, more highlights from the new Economy Forum in beijing. Lots of headlines, some confusion about trade, some optimism on trade, and the market really goes nowhere. This is bloomberg. Here, it all starts with a simple. Hello hi how can i help