Going into the Fourth Quarter of the year. The economy is fairly weak but the data today shows things moving in the right direction. Abigail alibaba goes public on their home turf. Narrows the valuation gap to amazon. Abigail the u. K. Election campaign heads into the home stretch. It is very easy to end up in a Hung Parliament territory. A madness with a delusion of big deals. And lot, but they can deftly do it. The general feeling is they probably will go through but how long it will take. Abigail a new suite of leaders brings a fresh set of goals to the European Commission. Climate change is existential. It is a huge opportunity. Every company should contribute. Indeed, the Banking Union will be one or also the commissions priorities. Abigail it is all straight on bloomberg best. Hello and welcome. Im abigail doolittle. This is bloomberg best, your weekly review of the most important Business News, analysis and interviews from Bloomberg Television around the world. Lets start with a day by day look at the top headlines. After months of protests that pitted citizens against the government and police, hong kong stayed calm on sunday as voters turned out for district elections. Voters pretty much across hong kong overwhelmingly siding with prodemocracy candidates and what many see as a fairly damming referendum. Record turnout, what does that mean though . N it means the electio voters here have really woken up to what is going on. More than 71 turnout on sunday. We have seen the pro democrats look like they are set for big gains this time around given the highly politicized environment, given the protests. A guest we had on bloomberg earlier on said this is really the people of hong kong talking about the biggest clinical issue. A vote on the government, a vote on the five demands of the protesters, including an inquiry into the police behavior. Labeling protesters as rioters. The demand for genuine universal suffrage. The people have spoken out. The question is what will happen next and what the government will do about it . Abigail china says it will tae action against intellectual property theft with the Sticking Point looming over the u. S. And what should be read into the timing of the ip rules. We do have a trade deal that looks like it is getting closer to fruition. We have the vice premier of china saying he is cautiously optimistic last week. We had President Donald Trump saying on friday that we are very close. And forced Technology Transfers have been a key part of the u. S. Complete of chinese behavior. This could pave the way for something to decide between the two president s. The other thing i think worth mentioning is china is increasingly developing a lot of its own technology. It has become beneficial for china to protect that on its own. A shortened trading week and we have the doubt, s p and nasdaq hitting record highs. The s p closing around 3100 level at 3133. The russell 2000, the clear performer of the day, up by 2. 1 . You have the stars aligning between a pathway to a trade deal. There is light at the end of a brexit tunnel. Earnings being less bad and impeachment conviction risks substantially being reduced. A lot of people who have missed now feel empowered they can hop on board. 1. 3, 2, surging on its debut in hong kong. The company raising more than 11 billion u. S. Dollars. The stock was heavily oversubscribed. Tell us about the price action. Decent showing for alibaba in hong kong. Not as much as we saw in 2014 when it listed back in new york. Shares opened at 187 hong kong dollars, above the ipo price and a slight premium to the new york listed. The stock jumped, with turnover of more than 8 billion hong kong dollars. Far outpacing tencent which is down slightly on the day, making alibaba the most actively traded stock. Analysts are bullish on the company. Hold on alibabas adrs. The share sale could help the company narrow its valuation gap to amazon. Alibaba training at 22 times earnings compared to amazons 46 times. The u. S. And china agreed to stay in touch to resolve remaining issues to get to phase one trade deal. This comes after a phone call earlier when the top negotiators from both sides discussed core concerns. Another day of incremental news that seems to be suggesting both governments are in track for some kind of trade agreement. The language has been quite positive. A positive spin. From here, the expectation will be how will the u. S. Respond . Of course, as we head towards the middle of december, will it be sufficient progress were both sides can agree to a trade agreement or we reach the deadline and the terror of threat from mr. Trump is promised and he increases tariffs. Theres a lot coming. U. S. Stocks climbing to record highs on renewed trade optimism. President trump telling reporters that u. S. Was in the final throes of a trade deal with china after negotiators spoke by telephone. Stocks moving higher on the day and it is easy to forget how big a move to tenths of a percent is. On the surface, it is not that big but if you have several days like these put together, they become huge moves very fast. Even on a quiet day, this is a very fastmoving market. The European Parliament voted again on approving the new Eu Commission today. The president elect won the backing of the clear majority of mps, allowing her new team to start work on december 2. Finally getting the green light. They will take office, including the European Commission president in december, replacing jeanclaude juncker. She has made climate her number one priority. She said she wants to make the European Union carbon neutral. Climate neutral by 2050. That is cutting down major carbon emissions. That is her number one focus. She also said the European Union needs to be much more assertive on the global stage. Theres also the idea of brexit. This would stare be looming on the European Commission because they would have to renegotiate the trade deal with the u. K. If it manages to leave the European Union in january 2020. Hong kong has found itself at the center of u. S. China tensions after President Trump signed into law a bill and support of the protesters. The move will complicate trade talks with beijing as the two sides get close to a phase one deal. The big question we are asking is what form of retaliation from china might take if it ends up being anything more than words . What signals are we getting on that front today . China has basically continued to warn the u. S. , first warning not to pass the bill. Then, President Trump not to sign the bill. Now they are saying they should not act on the bill. There has been threats without specifics at this point. Obviously, it comes at an inopportune time for the trade talks but both sides seem to want to move forward. Germany is excited to continue ignoring calls for greater fiscal stimulus with lawmakers looking set to confirm the governments balanced budget for 2020. A potential shakeup in german politics could endanger the future of the ruling grand coalition. Show off. O what exactly is happening with the spd . What is the politics of story . What we have is a faceoff of leadership of the spd, the Junior Coalition partner in merkels government. We will find out the results of this faceoff. The voting has been going on among Party Members for the last week or so. We will find out tomorrow evening who won. It is really important in terms of the future of the government because if the finance minister wins this, it is likely he will push to continue on in this coalition with merkel. The challenger to him for the Party Leadership has basically said he does not really believe in this grand coalition with merkel and that is hurting the party. It is much more likely the social democrats would consider pulling out of the coalition if the challenger were to win in the vote that will get announced tomorrow. Retailershe moment have been preparing for all year long. Black friday underway in the u. S. The National Retail federation expect more than 165 million black friday shoppers this year, each spending over 1000. We are not seeing people line up like they used to. 2007, 2008, these are people swarm walmart, grabbing tvs and fight over things. That is not what black friday looks like anymore. This has become an online holiday. A lot of these companies rollout promotions back in october. There has been a lot of online shopping. Something like a quarter of bargains have been bought today. You dont have to wake up and stand in the cold anymore. It is definitely changing. Who are people going out to the stores today . A lot of young shoppers. The millennial, gen z shoppers seeing this is a social event. That is why stores like american eagle, Urban Outfitters are benefiting from those young shoppers. Also, electronics also benefit. People who want tvs and the big electronics, they are seeing a lot of foot traffic as well. Our forecast was sales would grow this year between 2. 8 and 4 over one year ago. We know the Consumer Confidence levels have been very hot. We have low unemployment rates, wages growing. Macro conditions are very good. We know just having seen the october retail sales numbers, they are quite strong and consistent with this threemonth average of positive momentum in the market. We feel very good about the way we are off to the season. Abigail still ahead as we review the week on bloomberg best, an exclusive view of hong kongs financial future from the head of major bank in singapore. Our mediumterm outlook for hong kong and for the region continues to be positive. Abigail irelands finance minister speaks exclusively on brexit and other eu issues. Next, more of the weeks top headlines. German Business Confidence rose slightly in november but still plenty for large of europes largest economy to worry about. There is concern about the lack of the trade agreement, but it is not everything. Abigail this is bloomberg. Abigail this is bloomberg best. Tour continue our global of the weeks top business stories. In the u. K. Where Political Parties sharpen their pitch to voters in advance of the december 12 general election. The Prime MinisterBoris Johnson unveiled a Safety First Program of policies and his partys election manifesto yesterday. The promise, to end the seemingly unending brexit boxset drama. This is really about mitigating the risks. What weve got today is a series of i capturing initiatives where it is meeting the eye. Yes, there are tax cuts for some. There is pledges for more nurses and infrastructure. Look more deeply and you will see some of these pledges balance out. The tax cut on National Insurance is balances out by increasing tax. Boris johnson makes it clear this is about getting brexit done, getting the deal through parliament and getting a trade deal by the end of next year. Something that many observers suggest will be very difficult. The u. K. Election and a pole out overnight shows a big win for Boris Johnson. 68 seats in the december 12 election. You see the labour party starting to squeeze the National Polls more, closing the gap. It is very easy how we can end up in a Hung Parliament territory. 30 of the seats out of the 68 are very tight. Yes. The issue for Boris Johnson has always been the threat of the brexit party which has now largely went away. Nigel farage has removed himself from 300 plus seats. For jeremy corbyn, it is still that liberal democrats and the other parties like the green party. That threat is still very much there. Still fighting as hard as she can against jeremy corbyn. Saysoomberg economics todays ecosurvey adds evidence that germanys economic slowdown has reached a bottom. Surveys remain consistent with subdued gdp growth. How concerned are german businesses about the lack of a trade agreement between the u. S. And china, and how concerned are they about other things . I think they continue to be concerned about the lack of trade agreement but it is not everything. The brexit situation is unresolved. There are domestic issues. The German Government needs to do more in the areas of energy policy, infrastructure spending. We still find it difficult to get infrastructure spending. Private investment is not ideal. We need proper tax reform. There is a lot to be done. It is not all about trade. Testing ais now missile system. The move could escalate the dispute between turkey and the United States. How big of a line has been crossed in turkey . This is something the United States has warned them against. It has definitely gone past a pretty significant threshold. It is a Russian Missile defense system. Turkey is still a nato member. The u. S. And nato allies have warned there will likely be additional sanctions on turkey if they continue to press forward with purchasing and not activating this system. It looks like they have taken that step. Lamong kong leader carrie called for peaceful dialogue with protesters. A landslide inad local elections. There is no new concessions, no new strategy. It is basically going to be following the preexisting strategies that was happening before this election, trying to engage in dialogue with residents of the city. There are calls for more ral lies. There was a brief standoff yesterday. Now we are probably going to see what protesters describe as a return to protest. Some prodemocracy lawmakers have feared that given that no one listened to this vote in government, we may see an escalation of protests going forward. Powell saying the glass is halffull. The fed chair says at this point, the glass is more than half full but the right policies, we can fill it further, building on the gains so far and spreading those benefits to all americans. Your takeaways . Jay powell telling us what we already know, the fed is on hold for an indefinite period as long as the information from the economy remains broadly consistent with the economy. Same old, same old. What he emphasized as new is keeping the expansion going as benefits beyond trading floors. Low rates spread the benefits of the expansion to the economy more broadly. Getting more marginally attached to americans in the labor force, benefiting from jobs, including minorities, the handicapped and the less educated. The one area he did emphasize where there might be some problems inflation. Not that it is too high, not that it is too low. He did suggest the fed wants to make sure inflation continues to rise and he thinks rate cuts are going to do that. Heres an interesting statement. Look at the conclusion of his speech. He said Monetary Policy is now wellpositioned to support a strong labor market and returned the 2 on decisively to objective. Jay powell with a little bit stronger view of how inflation is going to develop over the next year. This morning, we got a rush of Economic Data. The u. S. Economy expanding 2. 1 in the Third Quarter, better than initially reported. While demand for u. S. Business equipment unexpectedly increased to the most this year. Where do we stand . All this means is Slower Growth going into the Fourth Quarter. Personal income spending report indicated decelerated trajectory of personal income growth. Disappointing, absolutely. If growth in personal Spending Continues at the same pace, it would imply significant deceleration from 2. 9 growth in the Third Quarter to Something Like 1. 6 in the final quarter of the year which also implies gdp will not be that great in the final quarter of the year. German unemployment dropped unexpectedly amid a slump in manufacturing which seems to be easing. Generally speaking, good news. The economy remains fairly weak but the data shows things moving in the right direction. Inflation is a big one for the European Central bank which accelerated to 1 . If you are going to get inflationary pressure, that will come through wages which is why you need tight labor markets. Still a big discrepancy. German unappointed is just above 3 . Spain is 14 . Greece at almost 17 . There are still fractures across the euro area. We need more data. Pmis come out next week. The week after that, Christine Lagardes first policy meeting as central bank president. That is one to watch. Abigail you are watching bloomberg best. Alibabas mega share sale this week was a muchneeded shot in the arm for hong kong amid ongoing political unrest. Investors have began weighing other financial hubs with singapore the obvious choice. The head of the ocbc says he is not seeing significant inflows from hong kong just yet. The ceo spoke exclusively with juliette saly. Actually, the amount of capital and wealth flow into singapore from hong kong is not noticeable yet. There are inquiries, their interests, but we dont see any significant, noticeable flow from hong kong into singapore at this stage. You are not seeing any major shift in client investment in terms of inquiries coming from hong kong . Correct. I dont see any major inflows. Their interests, there are inquiries. What kind of contingency plans does the bank have in place should the situation in hong kong escalate . We do commercial banking interests. We do some treasury business. In terms of the hong kong domestic b