The best performer across europe and in the cac 40s sanofi after it said it would give up on diabetes and some Heart Research , and would concentrate on cancer research. That has that stock higher. Barclays lower 1. 7 . That has the european stoxx 600 down about 0. 5 . The ftse 100 down 0. 5 ahead of the election in a couple days. The british pound up 0. 2 . We are joined by christian lawrence, rabobank Senior Market strategist. It is baked into this market . Christian i think its fair to say that a conservative majority is pretty much baked in. The real surprise would be if we didnt see that emerge, so if the conservatives get a minority or if the opposition were to win, but i think that is very unlikely. For me, the major risk is that we could actually see a correction to the downside if the market is disappointed by that number of seats for the conservatives. Alix is that a gradual vonnie is that a gradual move to the downside, or could we see com some kind of got movement . Christian i think that would end up being a gap movement. I base case is that we see a conservative majority, and then the path for sterling will continue to be higher, but obviously anymore some dude fashion obviously in a more subdued fashion. It is fascinating that this is just one of the key events this week. Im curious as to what your morning is going to be concerned with. Will customers be calling up and talking about impeachment . Will they be talking about usmca . Will they still be talking about china . Christian it is quite remarkable how low fx volatility is at the moment. Other than the chilean peso, volatility has really been grinding lower all year. Yesterday, today still very subdued price action as people wait for the fomc tomorrow, the ecb, of course. Election. The weve already had the trade headlines. Theres a lot going on come about the moment, it is certainly wait and see mode. Of those events, i would suggest it is probably the ecb that is going to be the most closely watched purely because this is lagardes first outing, and it is clear she is going to be leaning very heavily on fiscal policy, urging governments to do something. When we look to next year, i actually think we will see further rate cuts from the fed as well, although they are unlikely to signal that tomorrow. Vonnie the fomc meeting has begun in washington, d. C. You mentioned the focus will probably move to the physical in europe. Certain countries will probably be on board. What is your base case for what kind of Fiscal Relief europe might get into 2020 . Christian of course, we are talking about fiscal stimulus globally, but in europe, it is harder than most, as you just alluded to. Some countries are on board with that, some arent. It will really be up to Christine Lagarde to try and provide some sort of consensus. Of course, she has a background. She was the french finance minister, and has spent many years at the imf essentially trying to advise countries what to do on the fiscal front. If anyone can do it, it is lagarde. What it is a very difficult task at hand, and i dont think the ecb is going to be able to completely sit on the sidelines. Vonnie is the market awaiting Christine Lagarde with an open mind, or is there something that could disappoint the market this week . Think if she didnt maintain the dovish stance we heard under draghi, that would certainly be a huge disappointment for the markets, but i dont really see that happening. I dont think she is going to rock the boat at this stage when it comes to monetary policy, and i think the emphasis is going to be on the need for individual countries to step up and provide some support. Of course, she will be aiming that specifically at some of the countries that are perhaps more reluctant to ease on the fiscal side, and germany as a standout there. As we know, germany has not been performing well over the last couple of years, so there is a very strong case to be made for boosting fiscal stimulus, particularly when borrowing rates are in negative territory. Vonnie moving to the u. S. , this morning we had House Democrats basically saying there are now two articles of impeachment against the u. S. President. This will obviously go to the senate. Will this have ramifications for the markets . There are plenty of secondary impacts i can see on the horizon. You see any of those impacting your clients iesco your clients . Christian christian when i speak to my colleagues, the consists this seems to be yes christian when i speak to my colleagues, the consensus seems to be when it comes to the senate, it is unlikely to go through. I dont think the markets are really pricing in the possibility of trump not being president before the 2020 election. That is not to dismiss it, of course. It is a huge event that we need to follow very closely, but i are onhe markets minds other things, particularly as trade. Vonnie we are waiting for comment on the impeachment articles, but is also intending to speak on the usmca deal, which is apparently close to getting signed. The mexican president saying this morning that the executives of the three countries will sign today. Lets listen into the house speaker. [indiscernible] rep. Pelosi good morning, everyone. This is a day we have all been working to and working for on the path to yes. We were in range for a while, but until we could cross a certain threshold of enforcement for our workers rights, for the environment, and for the Prescription Drug issue. As you know, those were the three issues we had put out there. I want to thank the eight memos of the committee, the numbers of the task force eight members of the committee, the memos of the task force, for negotiating the legislation. I also want to thank Richard Trumka, the president of the aflcio. , thes persistent satisfied, knowledgeable. He really got us to a place which is a far distance from where we started with the proposal that was given to us. There is no question, of course, that this trade agreement is much better than nafta. But in terms of our work here, it is infinitely better than what was initially a pope initially proposed by the administration. I credit our chairman, richie neil, for helping us navigate all of these places. The unity of our caucus on specific priorities in order to get the job done, and again, the brilliance and knowledge of Richard Trumka as to the ramifications of every provision that was in the legislation. We will be handing out the memo from the ways and Means Committee, which explains why we are so proud of the distance that we have come from where we started with the administration on this legislation. It is a victory for americas workers. It is one that we take great pride in advancing. Force, thethe task Congress Woman who has markup in her committee about workers appropriations, you will be hearing from Mike Thompson of california, terry bonamici ofabama, oregon, gomez of california. Where are my others . Connecticut, Earl Blumenauer of argan. Of oregon. Now it is my honor to yield to richie. He was indeed a maestro to make all of this happen. I have Great Respect and admiration for his work, and to thede that i yield chairman of the ways and Means Committee. Rep. Neal thank you. [applause] rep. Neal everyone sitting great while, you get to participate in a it will never happen moment. [laughter] rep. Neal we are witnessing that today. The other thing i would point out is after an intense round of conversations over the weekend that started with the speaker and myself and Robert Lighthizer , and mr. Trumka was on a hunting expedition. We spoke very quickly. But the speaker talked to me earnestly about we are near, we sunday, all ofn a sudden i looked at my phone and said pelosi for caller id. Withsdom tells me, to hell brady, take the call. [laughter] rep. Pelosi and i was watching baltimore. Rep. Neal this is a transfer med of agreement, a transformative agreement, a template for future agreements, i think. Enforceabilityas. Richard trumka would be supportive of this i tells all. Theing members strengthened labor standards, strengthened the environmental chapters, enhanced the verification mechanisms for environmental trade with the unleased environment will trade. Abilityrved congress tochange law with respect Prescription Drug prices. Usmca will deserve a vote because it is in agreement that democrats shaped. I dont think anybody on this status would have said two months ago we would have been able to get as far as we did in this negotiation. It was based upon goodwill, but also a determination that we acknowledge the problems that existed in the past with enforceability. Break iny of the august with the working group, i nothingthe trade rep, has flustered more does agreement about trade and a lack of enforceability. The trade rep said to me, youre absolutely right. Andaid, i want to tell you, i think i am not speaking out of school, there have been people in the state department, the defense department, and the oval office over the years who said dont get this one upset and dont get that one upset because we might need them on future geographic issues. Our position has been that we are supportive of the thrust of what you want to do here. I think that the initiative that we offered, the offering that we have in front of us today is indicative of the goodwill, and some of the numbers on this task force and nubbers of the subcommittee, what a job they did. These were intense, argumentative, angry negotiations. This got really hot on a number of occasions. I think we set a world record for hanging up on each other, myself and the trade rep. But at the same time, we also knew this was an opportunity that we couldnt let get away from us, and we did that. We will continue to share more details in text. I traveled with the delegation to mexico to meet the president of mexico, and right after that, i traveled to canada to meet with the Prime Minister of canada and the minister for trade. I believe they were good partners in this. They conceded to just about every point that we asked for because of the following, enforceability, enforceability, force ability. So with that, madame speaker, i will turn it to you. Rep. Pelosi i will turn it over on the matter of pharmaceuticals. It has been an honor to serve on the working group. The Trump Administration sent us a deeply flawed trade deal that, among other things, would have raised the price of pharmaceuticals across north america by locking in high drug prices and expanding big pharmas monopoly. Over the past six months, my democratic colleagues and i on the working group worked for a deal that helps americas patients, workers, and all consumers. ,e now have a new and improved renegotiated nafta that prevents big pharma from raising the price of Prescription Drugs across the United States, mexico, and canada. Provisions limited that underline congresss ability to change domestic policy that lead to high drug prices. The Trump Administration tried to tuck in big corporate gifts to pharma in usmca. 0 years of market exclusively we currently have 12 years in the United States. This trade bill would have tied congresss hands and prevented us from enacting legislation. I have a bill that would actually lower the exclusivity. But that provision is now out of the trade deal. It is gone. [applause] because of our current Prescription Drug pricing crisis , Many Americans would actually go to canada and to mexico to get lowercost drugs. This would have raised the cost across the hemisphere. This deal would have caused prices of Prescription Drugs in those countries to skyrocket. On the first day of our negotiation, i told the u. S. Trade representative lighthizer that the biologic exclusivity provisions needed to be removed, and now they are gone. The Trump Administration also pharma witht big increased protections for secondary patents and ever greening changing a little bit of a drug to get a new and extended patent, and those provisions are gone. Finally, the Trump Administration also tried to prioritize brandname drugs and include barriers to market entry of generic drugs, and we have now revised those provisions to , tore generic competition improve access and affordability to medicines for people across north america. Lots of people to thank. We had an amazing staff on the committee and in our offices. I want to thank congressman blumenauer. He and i were working on the pharmaceutical piece. I also want to thank organized labor, Richard Trumka. They made the drug provisions an important part of this legislation. Usmca for fixed the americas patients, consumers throughout the hemisphere. Thank you. Rep. Neal jim goldman has done a remarkable job. Jim . Rep. Golden let me thank you for trusting a redshirt freshman to be on this group. I always looked at this issue as important because i come from labor. I worked for the nurses union in california, so i understood the seriousness of any trade agreements. When it comes to this one, we were asked to really work on the labor and enforcement parts of the agreement. We look at it as a three legged stool. One, the labor rules would end the agreement. Two, monitoring. Three is enforcement. If you have squishy language, it is hard to understand if there is any of that agreement, so we tie up the language to make it stronger and more enforceable. You have to have monitoring of any on the ground, so we created mechanisms to assess mexicos progress in and permitting labor reforms and complying with the rules that we laid out in writing. If theres no consequent is vonnie its been quite a day for House Democrats. Youve been listening to some of them on the ways in mittys on the ways and Means Committee on usmca, lauding themselves and having an active role, and called it a template for future agreements, saying it is in agreement that democrats helped shape. We are not seeing a huge amount of market reaction. Currency reaction is minimal. The vote is planned for next week, according to the house speaker, but we know from the mexican president that the three executives are due to signed today later in mexico. Lets get briefly to the white house and josh wingrove. Democrats seem to be taking a lot of credit for this deal. What exactly did democrats do to shape it . Josh the big thing they confirmed there was the removal of the biologic pharmaceutical drug provision that would have forced canada and mexico to extend the protection of those drugs. That is gone. That was a straight give to pelosi to get her on board. That was one of the key differences from nafta, and that is not a long list to begin with. A lot of this has been baked in. The gdp impact is not that big to begin with, and it is looking more and more like nafta with every change. These are the final dominoes falling today. The aflcio is supporting this, pelosi says it is coming for a vote. That pretty much means it is a slamdunk. Things can change. Canada still has to ratify. That probably wont be a problem, even though trudeau lost his majority. So things are finally moving after two years of ripping our hair out on whatever this thing on whether the thing was going to land or not. Vonnie we leave it there for the moment. A very busy moment for nancy pelosi, what with those articles of impeachment as well. Josh wingrove, thank you. , and 19ean union trillion economy, is announcing plans to zero out Greenhouse Gas emissions but when he 50 in order to turn europe into the worlds first by 2050 in order to turn europe into the worlds first climate neutral continent. Ceo Michael Oleary joins us from brussels. One of the proposals is higher taxes on airlines to reduce the impact of co2 emissions. What is your response as chair of a4e . Michael good morning. We are opposed to taxation. Taxation does nothing to the end does nothing for the environment. We explained this morning that airlines like ryanair and other European Airlines are investing 170 billion over the next decade, refleeting, buying new aircraft which will carry more passengers, but burn 20 less fuel. We are already investing very heavily in the industry. To deliver growth in a much more Sustainable Way and a much more environmentally sensitive way. Taxation will set back that investment agenda, where already we are delivering. Vonnie i imagine the eu response would be that that is not enough, that the Airline Industry is threatening to overtake even power and utilities as the biggest emitter. Unfortunately, ryanair is one of the biggest emitters among the airlines itself. What do using the Airline Industry can do in order to absorb higher taxes, as well as research . Michael i think theres an awful lot of misinformation. The air industry is not one of the big polluters. We are one of the most efficient industries. We account globally for less than 2 of co2 emissions. Shipping accounts for 5 , and yet somebody never says to tax freight. Even though we are only 2 , we are investing heavily to reduce those emissions by investing in new aircraft and new technologies. We are one of the leaders as an industry in europe. Despite our excellent record, we are investing heavily to further reduce our environmental footprint down to infant intesa millie down to infinitesimally small levels. We operate a fleet of small boeing aircraft. We are the greenest, Cleanest Airline in europe. Passengers switching to flying ryanair in europe are already reducing their emissions by 50 compared to playing with some of the naughtier competitors we have with respect to climate here in europe. Continues at this growth rate, it will have overtaken, in terms of pollution, his some of the more traditional industries. What will you do to offset another ways . Th