You are in the world. Welcome to bloomberg surveillance. We changed hours in europe to get an extra hour. Ill be joined by tom keene in one hour. Weve had a couple incredible weeks on the markets, a lot of volatility, a lot of people working from home. Good morning to you, as well. European and asian stocks declining this monday. U. S. Equity features are pretty fluctuating, investors trying to figure out negative coronavirus news means against the stimulus measures that trigger the balance in risk assets last week, dollar getting, oil falling desk gaining, or will dollar gaining, oil falling. Lets get to blooming first word news. Is viviana hurtado. At his President Trump goal of a normal life by easter. He wants the public to practice social distancing until the end of april. Earlier, Top White House advisor dr. Fauci telling cnn as many as 200,000 americans could die if efforts to mitigate the spread of the virus on to successful. Arent successful. Secretary mnuchin wants to have operations of this week. He told Fox News Sunday the massive 2 trillion stimulus plan was signed into law friday. Congress is discussing another relief package. Areeurope, officials warning against worsening lockdowns after the outbreak claims 3000 lives over the weekend. The total death toll for the nation now over 17,000. The pace of fatalities and infections showing signs of leveling off, the officials are warning against complacency. We ended in the u. K. , were locked on measures could last for months. She says the death toll will probably get worse in the coming weeks and it will take time to see any impact the current measures are happening in the data. Fitch cutting u. K. s Credit Rating to aa minus. Does havee, i think, to prepare for significant period when these measures are still in place. And i think the response of our from the british people have been fantastic, as i say. I wish i could predict when this will end, but its vitally important that at the moment, and for weeks ahead, people maintain the social distancing guidelines that have been laid out. Global news, 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine thank you so much. President trump extended a National Morning for americans to distance themselves from one another until april 30. President trump we can expect that by june 1, we will be well on our way to recovery. By june 1, all of great things will be happening. That was an aspirational help. The decision to prolong, not prolonged but to extend, this mitigation process until the end of april, i think was a wise and prudent decision. Now for joining us Market Analysis and to put in contact into context everything weve been hearing, this human health crisis, were joined by peter dixon. Thank you for joining us on this monday morning. What will the markets focus on . Its difficult not to focus on the weekend, but how should the markets interpret it . Peter i think the markets are looking, at the moment, at the severe rate of infections in the death toll. Things will get worse before they get better. Thats an accepted view. Given the positive view in the markets last week, its a consequence of the stimulus program. Reality is setting in. Its going to be a long haul. For the economy, the markets, and for all of us who have to deal with the consequences of the coronavirus. I dont see much on the horizon, in fact. Francine how do you model at out . It out . We figure how Many Companies will you figure out how Many Companies go bust . Whether it will keep people afloat . Is that we decide what happens to equities . Peter i think you have to look at it on a casebycase basis on the one hand, topdown. Certainly my view would be to look from the top down initially, and say what has to happen to markets, generally, in order to cope with the expected gdp collapse were expected to see, thats factored in. Although im not entirely clear markets realize how bad the economy could be in the second quarter. He do have to look from the bottom up and say which takenies are going to a relatively big hit from another. You get a sense of which companies are likely to suffer the most. Everyone is suffering. Its a question of some more than others. Impact wille market be worse than 2008 . And will the economy be worse than to this night . Peter the Economic Impact will be, yes, certainly the economy we are expecting. Will be quite significant. And i think in l. A. , fisher. The question fisher. The question for sure. Amount of itis the we will take in the second quarter. In terms of what that means for markets, they will suffer a lot of damage. It will take a long time for that to be repaired. The same with the economy struggles to gain traction in the second half of the year, i think the markets might suffer, as well. He might see markets leveling of, but upside remains fairly conspicuous. Limit to is there any what more Central Banks can do . The reached the limit . Or if he put more on the balance sheet, its limitless . Peter it depends what the objective is. If its to stimulate the economy, they run that a long time ago. If their objective is to support the bond market, then obviously they can pretty much buy up much public debt as they want. The moment, certainly in the eurozone, they are permitted from doing to. Theres nothing to stop them from buying massive quantities of debt. I guess over the course of a few years, Central Banks will be the buyer of last resort. Given the huge surge in debt weve seen or will see from governments, its incumbent to keep Interest Rates down. I think were about to enter a significant era of repression, similar to the United States past world war ii. That would mean Central Banks doing everything they can to hold Interest Rate that. That was certainly certain Interest Rates down. That would certainly mean bonds rates. Francine what is the objective . We spoke with mervyn king, the bank of england governor, and he tells us we shouldnt talk about a vshaped recession. But policymakers are trying to do is suspend the world economy. Is that possible through tools . Take a threemonth month, six month hiatus . Peter i dont think it is. Im sure thats what theyre trying to do. Obviously, what we know from what central bankers have done, from what governments have done, is that theyre trying to put in place a flaw trying to prevent the damage from this economic downturn spreading widely. In that sense, theyre trying very hard to prevent the worst case happening. I suppose the will. The problem is, its going to be extreme the difficult, extremely damaging, and we look back at this period and say that was one serious downturn. We may ask ourselves could policymakers have done more . From where were sitting at the moment, its difficult to see whether they are nationalizing the whole economy. Francine peter, thanks so much. Well come back to you and ask about possible nationalization. Coming up later, well be speaking to the unicredit chief executive officer and head of european banking federation. Thats after ecb aspects to prove suspend dividends and buybacks until at least october. And whatcuss that next it means for the banking sector. This is bloomberg. Economics, finance, politics, this is bloomberg politics. Im francine lacqua. Lets get to bloomberg first Bloomberg Business flash with viviana hurtado. Viviana after Repatriation Flights. The airline says its looking for ways to increase cash cushion when planes start flying again. Its uncertain. It will depend on government restrictions and demand. Cuttingasml, its revenue a lot as the coronavirus hits its supply chain. It hasnt seen a reduction in demand. It supplies and samsung and semiconductors with chipmaking equipment. About 100 amazon employees in the new york Fulfillment Center plan to go on strike. The alleged management has been unresponsive to safety concerns about coronavirus at the facility. They wanted to close for two weeks and be sanitized during that time. They also want to be paid. And the sale of londons hotel by the barclays brothers appears to have fetched less than 8 million pounds. A spokesman for frederick sparkly says they were surprised and perturbed by the announcement of the sale. He adds he wasnt consulted and hasnt approved of the deal. If the hotel sold for less than one billion pounds, he previously alleged legal action. That your Bloomberg Business flash. Francine . Francine thank you so much, viviana. Lets get straight back to peter dixon. We were talking a bit before about the limits of monetary policy. Theres one thing that struck me, reading the italian papers, is that theres a visceral not misunderstanding, but a visceral hate against europe not helping your enough desk europe. Europe and off. This is a europe enough. This is about bonds. Is it enough not to have issuance . Peter yes. A clearly does. We have a certain amount of discord, i think, between Northern European countries, notably holland and finland, i think, probably the Main Objective but theres no doubt more needs to be done. Theyll basically iron out their differences because ultimately, isnt an alternative. And this is the kind of shock which they really wasnt prepared for. The time is wasted. Eurozone wont survive, i think, in its current form, if we play this to same way we played the debt crisis. Im pretty sure its coming. Francine its coming despite german resistance . Or is this basically make or break if you are to come together on this . Are we going to see much more concerns Going Forward . Are we going to have multiple brexits from other countries . Peter i dont know if i want to go quite that far, but certainly the strains worldwide and as you pointed out, theres a significant degree of opposition, unrest, whatever you want to call it, regarding the did edition of Northern European countries. Germany isnt keen on the idea. But its already crossed the red line, or blackline if you like, given its surface, regarding a fiscal expansion to support the domestic economy. Ultimately, i think germany recognizes its in its own interest to have germany continue. It will be dragged across the line but it will take time. Time is precious at the current juncture. It will be nice to see germany move quickly, but i preacher able have been in the afternoon. Francine what do you do with banks right now . What he deal with oil majors right now, given oil is still plummeting to a 17 year low . Peter obviously the oil majors not looking healthy. I do think its been for a rebound because they will have to bear with if its is to try and put some form into the price. The fact that dement has collapsed is the major problem. Excess in supply is the other. To some extent, they can fix. If you want to pick up something cheaply, keep an eye on oil minors. When the oil price bounces, ba nks obviously under pressure, but perhaps not like 20082009. 10 years ago, this was a banking prices crisis. A slightlyhope in better state than many other sectors, largely because theres a huge demand for credits to help Companies Get across the current difficult period. There are still a lot of demand and hopefully banks will hold up. Francine when it comes to lockdown, i know its impossible, and them asking you the impossible, but is it does it last three months, six months . And what does it mean for stocks . Francine i think is log peter i think is longer than three months. Weve seen it. Working assumption. There as it is going to take asseto get back their is going to take time to get back on track. Peoples behaviors change. Market behavior change. The entry period of reflection enter capable of reflection. That reason, it wont be business as usual. It will be a period of consolidation as we think, where do we go from here . Under the circumstances. Markets may rebound from their those. Which we , which well see in q2. Francine . , thank you peter dixon, thank you. Coming up, a conversation with peter dollar. He discusses coronavirus. St. Louis Federal Reserve president. You dont want to miss this interview. This is bloomberg. Between 100tooth hundred cases,d cases 200,000 but i dont want to be held to that. Excuse me, death. Were going to have millions of cases, but we dont really need to make a prediction when it such a moving target that you can so easily be wrong and mislead people. The top u. S. Doctor, Anthony Fauci, speaking on the number of cases, the number of projected cases and what we heard from President Trump. Lets get straight to new york city and Annmarie Hordern. How important was Anthony Fauci waiting yesterday . Annmarie it was extremely important, seeing this aboutface from the Trump Administration. Good morning, dr. Fauci and dr. Birx talking about a new model where millions will be affected, dr. Fauci talking to as many as 200,000 americans could die from the coronavirus. That really means why the Trump Administration is abandoning its ambition to get americans back to work the easter. Instead, they are saying that peaked of death could happen around easter. The social distancing, the lockdowns, that will remain in place until at least april 30. Weve seen a lot of that. More than half the cases are coming from new york state. But there are other cities now starting to really see a lot more rise in affections infections, including new orleans, los angeles as well. Francine thank you so much. Well have a lot more throughout the day. Well also speak to more later on to get the number of cases and number of deaths we could see in the coming death and months. This is what your markets are doing. A lot of focus on oil. Dollars snapping its fourday retreat. Its a great way looking at risk out there. Also coming up, a conversation with the chief executive of askeddit after the ecb banks and not to pay dividends until october. We speak to him about the european banking landscape. Thats next. This is bloomberg. Theres no place like home. Especially when xfinity has you covered with fast, reliable internet. With advanced security to help keep you secure online. And with the most tv shows, movies and streaming apps all in one place. With simple Digital Tools you can get the help you need or even trouble shoot your services on your own. Download the xfinity my account app or just say help into your xfinity voice remote. We are working to make things a little easier on everyone. Download the xfinity my account app today. Until may. Is closed President Trump says social distancing will continue until at least april 30. Medical experts say u. S. Deaths could reach 200,000. Deaths in italy top in spain at 17,000. Oil plummets to a 17 year low amid the pandemic. The markets overwhelmed by cratering demand on a ballooning surplus of crude. Good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. Viviana President Trump abandon his goal of a return to normal life by easter. He now wants the public to continue practicing social distancing until at least the end of april. Earlier on sunday, Top White House medical advisor dr. Anthony fauci telling cnn its efforts to mitigate the spread of the virus are not successful, up to 200,000 americans could die. Now to china, the nation rejoining the wave of Global Quantitative easing. It has cut the Interest Rates on loans to banks by the biggest amounts as 2015. The sevenday reverse report rate is set at 2. 2 , don from 2. 4 . It comes as the peoples bank of billionject around 7 into the banking system. Oil slumping to a 17year low as Global Demand erodes. New york crude briefly dipping below 20 a barrel as the price war between saudi arabia and russia continues. Contact had any russia doubling down, saying while 25 a barrel is unpleasant, it is not a catastrophe. And we end with south africas rand, continuing its decline against the dollar. As wellngraded to as unreliable Electricity Supply and weak business confidence. The treasury sees the cut as the opportunity to fix the economy and do the right thing. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in im than 120 countries, viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Francine . Francine thank you so much, viviana. Onto a conversation i have been looking forward to all we can. Unicredit has suspended Dividend Payment and also shared by back, the decision after the ecb friday recommended that lenders hold out to these kind of payments until at least october as the coronavirus pandemic wreaks havoc on the markets. Reviews calls for banks to be prudent on dividends persuaded previous calls for banks to be prudent on dividends persuaded banks to change their policies. A chief executive of unicredit. Vanke you so much for thank you so much for joining us for this exclusive conversation. I know suspending buyback and dividend is possibly a setback in your plan, but did you feel that this was the right thing to do . Good morning, francine. Chairman of the european banking federation, i welcome the recommendation of the ecb, which will bring capital to support the economy. So clearly, i hope them banks ie seeing other banks think it is important for banks to be here. It is important for banks to be part of the solution in this crisis. Francine as president of the european banking federation, what have you heard from federal bankers . Are they worried about their future . Do they feel policymakers have done enough to ensure liquidity . With these measures they can buy the mo