Well. We are in a grimmer america and the trend we are seeing in this pandemic, what do you observe in london on this wednesday . Iancine more than london, wanted to give you context on the rest of the u. S. It is a different market in the u. K. , many more homeowners and people do not live as much as in the u. S. Paychecktopaycheck. In the markets, we do not know what will happen because all of the rent due in the u. S. In the credit markets, regulators are racing to deal with this. They have more than 1. 5 trillion in outstanding debt, something we need to keep an eye on. Tom emerging markets front and center. Right now, our first word news. Viviana President Donald Trump is largely giving up his optimistic tome and warns tone and warns the u. S. To brace for one of the toughest wretches ever. The corona stretches ever. The coronavirus could kill 240,000 people. Overw york, the death toll 1000, new york state reporting over 75,000 confirmed infections. That exceeds the place where the virus emerged in china. The Top Oil Producers will try to stop the historic plunge in prices, President Trump raising the issue with Vladimir Putin and mohammed bin salman. The saudis are planning to boost output again. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom thank you so much. Futures lower. Yields are in with curve flattening. I want to focus on the stresses in the emergingmarket. They are all different whether it is South African rand or turkish lira with recent record week as. Weakness. Em is indicating stress and oil under pressure as well. Francine i think we need to spend more time looking at oil. Investors are taking this worsening coronavirus figure badly and trying to assess the impact the pandemic will have on corporate profits and dividends, with banks in europe saying they have postponed or scrapped dividends and buybacks stocks are down and a lot of the pressure is coming from banks where u. K. Banks are down 6 to 7 . Wonderfulve had conversations with professionals in the medical community but of course what we do every day, economics, finance, and investment. We are thrilled to bring you Abby Joseph Cohen of goldman sachs. I must start with your charitable commitment that also includes the hospital of your new york city. Cornell andpdate on new york presbyterian and their many hospitals are doing in this most difficult crisis. Abby tom, good morning, and good morning to everyone else. I have the honor of serving as a member of board of overseers of cornell medicine, which is one of the leading hospitals in the United States. We are very fortunate in the city of new york to have a handful of outstanding Teaching Hospitals, including mount sinai and a handful of others. What i would say is the hospitals in new york, while we often see the unfortunate situation in the Public Hospital situation here, the Teaching Hospitals in many cases were somewhat better prepared. Governornell, as Mohamed Lahouaiej bouhlel has hascated Governor Cuomo indicated, cornell is working on the models so the preparation began early. What we are seeing in new york is great coordination within the state in which hospital resources are being shared. We see that certain hospitals are being turned into covid hospitals with patients who acquire other services being moved to different institutions. The physicians, nurses, and everyone else involved while at cornell are working at full tilt , and basically are providing a good deal of information to the governor about the course of this disease, best ways to treat it, and of course the unfortunate data that many had projected our coming to pass. Are coming to pass tom we have seen here or there a cavalier moment of someone with substantial means running from the virus, running from the pandemic, trying to remove themselves from the struggle everyone is racing. Basing. You will everyone is facing. You are a voice of wall street. What does everyone need to do to support main street under duress . Abby a heavy question, but i will do my best. The basic spots ability of wall street is to provide capital and basice have responsibility of wall street is to provide capital and what we have seen is providing capital. Ofated to the various pieces the school stimulus, they aim to make sure capital is flowing. The cost of capital, i. E. Interest rate, has gone down, but the plumbing is working. One thing we are watching is things like spread and we are looking at various Credit Facilities to see what is happening there. Our concern all along since the very beginning of this crisis in february, meaning for the United States, has been the availability of capital, particularly for small and midsize businesses and also for individuals. This remains of notable concern. Impact ise what the of the various packages that have been undertaken. We have already seen that the monetary policies may less is stimulus is policy having the desired effect. The biggest economic kit on a monthly basis will likely be in the month of april. Part of this has to do with the Service Industries that have already been shut down in a significant way, but this will be a rolling Health Crisis in the United States. While the first example of Community Spread occurred in new york, new york was not alone, and the doctors and Public Health experts looking at this believe the virus entered the United States likely in december, so it is already widespread. It is just a question of whether those clusters are forming, and we see now they are throughout the United States when you talk specific the about new york United States. When you talk specifically about new york, we are one of many. Governor cuomo has talked about why new york is so hardhit and i hope the lessons we learn here get carried over to other major cities. One question i have are the Rural Communities if i could just finish. Many people have moved into more rural areas. People who live in those rural areas fulltime, one of the worries is the Hospital Systems in those communities may not have sufficient facilities for people who get sick there. Francine let me just jump in from london. This is a health care crisis. It is turning into a possible economic crisis but central bankers and policymakers have done their best. Is this a solvency crisis . Difficult to know when the economy gets kick started again or gets back to work, so how different is this from 2008 2009 . 2008 2009 was clearly a financial crisis on which something there was too much debt in many sectors around the world, and the Banking System was not prepared. One of the things we are fortunate in the United States is that we have had an awful lot of tough love on our Banking System for the past 10 years firm regulators, so the banks themselves are in much that her position than they were better position than they were. I will not speak about the position in europe. In the United States, the banks seem to be in better shape than they might have been. The solvency issue we remain can learned about in terms of the intermediate concerned about in terms of the intermediate and longterm period have to do with the smes, small and mid size, and the individual household. The plan will have some benefit, but those will be some second order effects on the economy. The near term obviously is very much a Health Crisis. This is an economic recession that has been brought about in an extremely unusual way. It was not brought about by financial stresses or excess inventory throughout the economy. Instead, it was brought about by the demand shock created by the Health Crisis. Sinceover my notes january, the concern among investors was the shock to the supply chain because of the impact in china and throughout asia. That pales in comparison now to the demand shock. That demand shock is heavily concentrated in services, and we think from a time standpoint, april and may will bear the brunt of it because of the constraints on all of us in terms of whether we can get around, and what we are hoping is that when we get to the latter part of this year and some of those physical come sprains constraints fiscal constraints compose imposed on us will start to go away the year on year numbers will look awful but we will look at the quarter on quarter numbers. A lot of the initial data we will be seeing will be wrong. The gdp data and many other important factors and data that we look at are based upon sampling techniques, and those samples will be way off in this period. The initial data will probably be wrong. The most accurate numbers we will get on a realtime basis will likely be the labor market data. We are expecting those to look awful over the next several months. The Unemployment Rate, for example, the reported Unemployment Rate in the United States could get up to 15 in the Third Quarter of this year, number, the more comprehensive number including discouraged workers, people working parttime involuntarily, that could exceed 25 . That is the Third Quarter and we think that will be the worst. Francine we will get back to that, Abby Joseph Cohen. She stays with us and we will talk more about those employment figures in the Third Quarter and what more Central Banks can do. This is what is coming up on tv and radio. An interview with bill dudley coming up at 8 30 a. M. In new york. This is bloomberg. Surveillance, from london, from new york, Abby Joseph Cohen with us. Viviana hurtado will have the news. I may have a few questions for ms. Cohen and then francine wants to talk banking. I look at the equity market and it is not a time to look out ask months,wo years six two years, three years. Look out five years and what do you do now if you are trying to create real wealth five years out . Abby that is an extremely important and yet difficult question. If this were a normal cyclical recession, as painful as those might be, i might be able to answer with more clarity than i can now. The reason for the hedge upfront, before i answer the question, is in a normal cyclical recession what happens is you go back to where you were. What we are expecting this time around is that some of the structural changes that were already underway in the Global Economy will continue perhaps on steroids. We are also seeing that this Health Crisis is unveiling a number of problems and stresses within the economy that perhaps were hidden. Let me give you an idea of what i have in mind number one, something i have have in mind. Number one, something i have written about, the disparities in the United States by geography and income level as it relates to education, perspectives Economic Growth and gains, and so on. This economic crisis is pulling the curtains back from these issues as well, and i think that we are going to need as a country to think about what we have learned in terms of basically variations in access to health care, variations in access to employment, and so on. Number two, we will see an acceleration with regard to use of technology. While many of us who are urban dwellers have benefited from good access to the internet, what that has done to our work lives and so on, we basically see that lots of Financial Services firms in the United States at least were able to switch many of their employees pretty easily to telework. That is not true for many urban areas where instead of 99 broadband coverage they have 60 coverage. Those are issues. I think we are also going to see and i think this is critically important and not yet adding enough attention the way we think about Different Countries may also be affected by this crisis. So as was discussed previously on the country on the program this morning, the weaknesses in europe have become more obvious and so has the strength in china. Tom Abby Joseph Cohen with us of goldman sachs, we will continue. We have much more coming up, some important guests, and on this continuing medical crisis. As you heard from Abby Joseph Cohen, we are seeing that. As well, large institutions adapt and one is bank of america we are thrilled to bring you a Conversation Bank of america. We are thrilled to bring you a conversation with Brian Moynihan as his bank is overwhelmed. This is bloomberg. Surveillance, from new york and london. Market, futures are down, not going to call it dramatically. Yields are in, curve flattening oil, with the headlines we years being, need to for headlines we are seeing, we need to frame oil at 20 a barrel. Up therats how he set equilibrium theory of going down well into the teens if not lower. Dare i say, he mentioned 10 a barrel at one point in the conversation. What you see . Francine what do you see . Stocks down,opean euro extending strong pmi readings. Drop is posting a record in terms of the index. Dollar climbing with treasuries. A bit of movement when it came to yen, so there is a to the markets of a haven as President Trump warned the strut spread of the virus is worsening. Rbs and lloyds candles outstanding dividends canceled outstanding dividends and buybacks is after buybacks. This is after we heard from regulators of a similar stance. Go to tv if you are a bloomberg user. , andan watch tom and i follow the comments from our guests. Ifn also ask guests you click on the little blue line, there is the ask the guest question. Theres no place like home. Especially when xfinity has you covered with fast, reliable internet. With advanced security to help keep you secure online. And with the most tv shows, movies and streaming apps all in one place. With simple Digital Tools you can get the help you need or even trouble shoot your services on your own. Download the xfinity my account app or just say help into your xfinity voice remote. We are working to make things a little easier on everyone. Download the xfinity my account app today. They are varies to bring, they are very sobering, 100,000 people. A lot of people have thought about it, ride it out and think of it as the flu, but it is not the flu. It is vicious. As the experts are predicting, we are going to start seeing some real light at the end of the tunnel, but this will be a very painful, very, very painful two weeks. New casese number of begins to level off, the secondary effect is less hospitalizations, less intensive care, and less deaths. The death and the intensive care and hospitalizations always lag behind the early indications that there are less new occasions per day. We saw in italy, and we are likely seeing i dont want to jump the gun we are seeing little inklings of this in new york. We have got to brace ourselves in the next few days to a week or so. We will see things continue to go up. Becauset be discouraged the mitigation is working. Telling donald trump reporters the coronavirus would simply go away but he has dropped that optimistic town, warning the tone, warning the u. S. To brace for difficult weeks ahead and the coronavirus could kill as much as 240,000 americans. In italy, factory output took a hit last month, factory pmi falling to its lowest level since the recession in 2009. All of italy is in lockdown. The industrial heartland is one of the first places to see a surge in cases. Paymentson in rent coming due, many renters warned they will not pay, and that has Property Owners and Companies Looking for solutions. Many agree the pain will spread. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom thank you so much. We welcome all of you worldwide, Francine Lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. Kevin cirilli joining us. The rent issue is front and center. Every conversation i am having is it has been an abject failure of washington to simply substitute for income, to let people pay a portion or all of their rent lets begin rent. Lets begin with the mood in washington. Our politicians aware they did not cut a check for this months rent . Kevin yes, they are. I interviewed mark calabro you and he said that fannie mae and freddie mac were taking steps to mitigate some of the financial pressure on individuals for this particular month. Fannie mae and freddie mac have they haveisely withdrawn the ability to do evictions and a host of other financial leniencys, but the public has not been educated on this and that is where the significant pain will be lying. Francine meaning what . If people cannot pay their rent, they do not have anyone to turn to . Or is it people have been forgotten . Kevin both. That is a good question. When i speak with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, and yesterday, it has increased the pressure for there to be another innd of economic st