Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 2024071

Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Americas 20240713

On the u. S. Economy. Down now about 3. 5 or so. Small caps artificially underperforming for the fifth time in six days. All on concerns about the strength or lack of strength within the u. S. Economy. I do want to take a look at the vix. If there is any bright spot going on, it is that it is hovering below 50. It is the first time going back to march 11, so it looks like there could be a little bit of an improvement here. Certainly feels better than the height of an 80 handle that we had. We do start to get more comforted when the vix is falling along with the s p 500. Traders hoping to find a floor here. Nextre starting to see the falling a little bit again today. I want to flip up the board. Ending on a light note. That is something we are trying to do everyone to a while. Its all about what you are doing if you are working from home. Apparently, we are going to be drinking. A lot of alcohol purchases. Week ofcreasing the march 21. Aree of thewin most, 66 and 75 . Beer, about 42 . Vonnie thank you for that update on the markets, taylor. Of course, following that dismal jobs report, 701,000 jobs lost in march, and we were not expecting it to be that dismal or that for that first part of the month. React, ass did not you might expect. Obviously, the market was also expecting this type of rampup in joblessness. Later on, we will hear from somebody who has been trying to access ppp programs, the first day available, and that is Tom Colicchio. David is with me now with the labor secretary. Welcome to bloomberg balance of power. The United States and just lost over 700,000 jobs last month. Unit as the federal government raises to get cash out to employers and employees alike to blunt the pain. We welcome the secretary of the department of labor eugene scalia. Give us your initial reaction to these numbers. They are even worse than expected, over 700,000 lost. Eugene good to be back with you. The numbers we see today, the numbers we saw yesterday also really reflect the impact on working americans of the Public Health decisions we are having inmake to put our economy large parts of the country on pause for a while. Yes, a loss of 700,000. Payroll jobs in a month is state. Important to know, this is just the beginning of the cut in jobs. The survey redo captures just the first half of the month. That was when job losses were just beginning. We know it got steeper as march went on, unfortunately. David this comes on the heels of 10 Million People filing jobless claims over the past two weeks. Economists predicting the could have as many people as many as 20 Million People unemployed. Is that consistent with what you are seeing . Eugene im going to refrain from giving a precise test of where we may land. Let me emphasize a couple things. First, we know that we are going to continue to see substantial numbers of people falling or unemployment, will see some more significant job loss numbers in our next months report. It is just part of the strategy that has been adopted as a matter of Public Health. The second point i would make is , because of this, it is very different than the cause of job losses we have seen in the past. This is a purposeful, shortterm strategy, and that gives me some optimism for how we cut out of this. We came into it quickly. If we are disciplined on Public Health measures right now, we can get out of this quickly. David all of us want to get out of it, no question. Before that, what sectors are particularly hard, restaurants, Small Businesses, can you tell . Eugene we dont have full information on that yet. Its a great question. The caught my attention in jobs report we put out today was , there was a large impact on what we call services, drinking establishments, restaurants and bars. 700,000 jobs lost in march, and about 415,000 of those were restaurants and drinking establishments. Theemember early on, one of first messages from Public Health authorities was avoid those places. So there was a quick impact there. We did not see a large impact in the reported march numbers in the travel industry, but we know there has been a major impact there, too. This is still unfolding. We are certainly mindful it is having a great impact on many americans. Of course, the president has signed three major pieces of legislation to help people as we pull through this. David lets talk about those three major pieces of legislation that we hope will turn things around or at least blunt some of the pain. Particularly the loan to Small Businesses. Today is the day Small Businesses can apply. Do we have a sense of what level of applications are coming in . To elaborate on those loans i agree with you, its an important part of the relief package that is being put out. These loans to Small Businesses 350 billion has been made available are intended to help these Small Companies get through the next couple of months by giving forgivable , othero cover utilities costs. Importantly, from my perspective, to cover payroll. If workers are kept on during this period, these loans are largely forgivable. Companiesy to bridge through but also employees, by keeping them on payroll, rather than the unemployment rolls. There are,e today, as i understand it applications are coming in. I believe some have been dispersed. It is a certified process. Today is the first day and we will see greater uptake into next week. David as i understand it and correct me if im wrong 70 of these loans are to go to employment, if they are to be forgiven. Do you have hopes that this may reduce the number of people getting laid off going forward, and that some may hire back . Yes. E actually, companies that already let people go and want to take these loans can get the full credit for their payroll by bringing people back. They should know that. Small companies that recently let people go because of the virus can bring them back on and have the loan cover the payroll. I very much agree, the aim here is to keep that tie between employer and employee during this cause we have in our economy. As i said, we came into this sharp downturn very differently than we have come into others, it didnt result in economic conditions, but a very Serious Health problem we are dealing with. I think we have a better chance of coming out quickly if we use measures like this. Of course, legislation the president tsai also includes signed also includes very high Unemployment Insurance to make ole, so that they are not losing out significantly financially because of conditions resulting from no fault of their own, but Public Health safety measures. There are other important things, including paid leave provisions, which we just started implementing last week. David in closing, give us a longerterm perspective. What longerterm effects there may be on the labor market. We hope it will bounce back, but will this change peoples forward . Going this is a rather than experience for all of us. Eugene let me emphasize how important it is to follow the Public Health measures being urged on us. Discipline now, staying home, social distancing will help people get back to work and fix the economy more quickly. In terms of the longterm changes, we will see. Attitudes toward telework may change. I dont know if they will get more positive or negative, we will see. The longterm impact will be less, needless to say, if this is a shorter. , the more it drifts substantial the longterm impacts on our economy will be. It wille certainly hope come back quickly, as you suggest. Thank you so much, labor secretary eugene scalia. Are going to Governor Phil Murphy of new jersey. Every day, are going to help out there and say thank you to david westin and eugene scalia. Coming up, you will hear from the richmond fed president tom barkin. This is bloomberg. Mike welcome back to our viewers and listeners around the world. Im michael mckee. Joining me now is thomas bargain, president of the Federal Reserve bank of richmond. Thank you for joining me. Start with a number of the day, 7001000 jobs lost in the month of march, more than expected, but did we really learn anything from that . It is a sad day, we have had job growth for well over a decade. It is hard to see the numbers turned negative. At i think everyone expects serious downward tilt on the jobs side, and this is just the first indicator. If you look at unemployment claims in the past two weeks, the highest ever is 700,000 in 1982. Last week was 3. 3 million. This week was 6. 6 million. Unfortunately, employment numbers are going to get worse before better. Some forecastsng in that in april we could see 10 million to 20 million jobs lost. Does that seem crazy to you . Does the Baker Richmond have any sort of forecast at this point . Unprecedented, a forecast is silly to do. What i try to do is look at the numbers, to get some perspective on it. Restaurants and bars in this country employ 12 Million People. Physical retail, excluding food and drug, another 11. Travel and leisure, another five. We know those sectors have been hit pretty hard. We can get to 30 million pretty quickly. I dont think numbers like 10, 20 million are out of the pale. Mike what are ceos, momandpop in yourelling you about district, about the conditions they see . I divide them into three buckets, the Service Industry there is a lot of emotion there. A lot of cases, really good, viable businesses have been shut down in the pursuit of a Public Health solution. They have hope. In particular, a number of them are applying to this new Small Business loan program, but they dont know for sure if they are going to get the money, how long it will last, whether the money will bridge them. There is a lot of sadness there, a lot of emotion in that sector. Then there are a bunch of other industries. Hospitals, food processing, fire, safety, and the like. They are proud that they are essential, making this country operate, but they are nervous about their health. ,ou see increased absenteeism supply chain issues in some places. They know they need to deliver but they are nervous. Then there is the wide swath of other businesses in this country, construction, manufacturing. Many are down but still hopeful. They are seeing drops in demand that are making their best efforts to whether through it. They just have hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel here. Mike this all as new urgency to the effort to get loans, operating capital to companies. How fast will defend be able to stand up the main Street Lending progra when can you start lending to people who need the money . The we want to achieve goals of this legislation, which is to put a lot of money behind supporting the economy, businesses in need. It will take time to work the details with treasury, who is our cosponsor on this. With the sbae, program that just started, a lot of the devil is in the details. It is just complicated to get right, pick out the right segments, so you get money to the people truly in need. It is challenging to find the vehicles and instruments, and then how much risk you want to bear. We are trying to get it as fast as we can. Mike im glad you brought up the risk question. People will say the federal legislation says no buybacks, no dividends, raises or ceos, but there are reports that the fed does not think that will necessarily apply to them, that if you put those strictures on, Companies May not apply for loans, which would be worse. How do you feel about that . I just say, all of this is being worked together with treasury. Give us a little bit of time to land the parameters of this. Mike another question in terms of lending, there are a group of companies arguing that you dont take anything less than Investment Grade now, but you need to. You look at Companies Like macys, junk rated, they lay off 130,000 people. Would you be willing to go below Investment Grade in your Corporate Bond buying, if it helps to keep the economy going . Know, in the world the statutes,der we are not allowed to take that kind of risk. A program we put together with treasury has to make that decision, as i talked about earlier. You know the tradeoffs on that. It is just challenging to get right. Like i said, give us a little bit of time to land the plane on that. Mike another one that you may have the same answer to but let me try. Nancy pelosi, Maxine Waters have both written to fed officials to say you need to start buying munis. We need to bail out our states and cities that have no money coming in because nobody is spending anything. Do you think the fed can or should expand what it is doing in the Municipal Market . Is the facility you have already as far as you can go . Tom the legislation gives us the authority to buy shortterm munis. You asked the question whether we can. That is something we could do. Legislation is something that we are looking at, trying to decide. All the facilities are standing up. Usechallenge is, how do you the tools we were given, the constraints we have legislatively, to put the right kinds of money into the hands of the right people . The Municipal Market is challenging. To the extent it has liquidity issues, that seems to fit more the facility we had earlier. If it is a funding issue alone, that is probably more of a fiscal question than for our tools, but we will have to figure that out. Mike speaking of the tools you have available, you have billions of dollars of loans out to companies that just above a zero rate. Can you ever raise rates at this point, given the threat that would provide to the people that have those loans you give . Tom rates are low now. If you read the last statement, you get the sense that they will be low for some time, until the economy recovers. Speaking for myself, i think we will normalize rates at some point when the economy has recovered. I think that is good for the economy. I dont think it is healthy to be at zero forever. When the time is right, im sure we will be willing to do that. Mike let me ask you about your area of expertise, Corporate Management what advice do you have to someone running a Major Corporation or is running a restaurant these days . Is, i am i say actually pretty confident that, when the time comes, businesses can come up with a protocol that allows workers to get back to work safely. A number of essential businesses are doing that today. What im less confident in is their ability to get customers to shop again, to go to the mall again, take vacation, buy shoes at a retail store. I think it is really important for businesses to think about, how do we compel customers that it is ok to be back in our store, or it is ok to take a trip . If you go to the Grocery Store these days, youll be met with somebody in a mask, who will slide down your cart to send a signal to say that we take cleanliness seriously. Stores are not crowded, you can distance, the checkouts have these guards, tape on the floor. Every Business Needs to be thinking about, in a world where we are past the peak, but there is of course still some infection, how do we make it safe for customers, and how do we get customers confidence that they can shop again . That is a business imperative. Mike thank you very much, tom barkin, president of the Federal Reserve of richmond. Stay with us. This is bloomberg. Vonnie this is Bloomberg Markets. Im vonnie quinn. Lets get a quick check on the markets. The major indices continue to edge lower. All of the groups are in the negative. The dow is down almost 2 , as is the nasdaq. 27. 10 per barrel. Coming up, we are talking to Tom Colicchio. You know him as the employer of almost 300,000 people. , was het day of the ppp able to apply . We will speak to him about that. This is bloomberg. Awesome internet. Its more than just fast. It keeps all your devices running smoothly. With builtin security that protects your kids. No matter what theyre up to. It protects your info. And gives you 24 7 peace of mind. That if its connected, its protected. Even that that petcamera thingy. [ whines ] can your internet do that . Xfinity xfi can because its. Simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] vonnie live from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york, im vonnie quinn. Welcome to Bloomberg Markets. Global market sinking deeper, with you s p 500 extending losses from thursday, closing lower for the third time in four days. This as employment in the u. S. Plummets. Payrolls sinking 701,000 in the month of march, falling for the First Time Since the great recession. The Unemployment Rate rising at its fastest pace since 1975. Confirmed cases of the virus top one million worldwide, more than a quarter of the infections in the u. S. , with new york city and state that the epicenter of the crisis. New york state recorded its biggest daily jump in debts to date. All of that in the next 30 minutes. Lets get a check on the markets. The s p 500, dow, and nasdaq down at least 2 . After thatwn 43 jobs report. Waiting for the next up from opecplus and the United States. 27. 02. The dollar index continues to strengthen. Lets get a check on first word news with mark crumpton. For whatan is bracing officials feel will be a explosive surgeon coronavirus cases. Confirmed cases have more than doubled in a week to almost 700. Prime minister shinzo abe has come under increasing pressure to declare a state of emergency to contain the disease is spread. He told

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