She is fine. Guy johnson with us from london. The imagery of the korean speaking and all the pageantry the imagery of the queen speaking, explain to us in the mood in london. Queen, in some ways, was beating towards the idea that this is a Second World War moment. Of class andind character that needs to be that that is the kind of class and character that needs to be exhibited. Has been some criticism of the Prime Minister for trying to be a little too shale in his stoicism. He is being hit quite hard. He is over the road on the other side of the break or at st. Thomas hospital. She is being treated there. Officials at number 10 downing street say he is still running the government. Secretary as the person who has been tasked to effectively step in for Boris Johnson. There is a great deal of talk. We dont have a Vice President here, it needs to be made a little clearer how things are going to work and how Boris Johnson is going to spend time away because he needs it. Stay with us. On the radio today, all sorts of headlines including out of spain, a little better. Germany may be much better. And of course the United States. Some real challenges. I am watching florida particularly. Will join us on the equity market. He has done some very careful thinking on the statistics of the virus. With our news summary, our first news in new york is viviana hurtado. Reportinghe nation the lowest number of new cases in two weeks. The largest outbreak is slowing. In the last four hours, there were fewer than 4300 newer infections. The lowest number of fatalities since march 24. In the u. S. , the Trump Administration says there are signs the u. S. Outbreak is starting to stabilize. And vice trump president pence, the Surgeon General warning americans to brace themselves for tragedy. He says this week will be the hardest and saddest. To the u. K. , Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the hospital for coronavirus. His illness was originally described as mild. Be admittedrging he to the hospital for tests because symptoms have not cleared up. An arabia, russia, is and other large producers racing to reach a deal to stem the historic price crash. Some progress was made. One obstacle, russia and saudi arabia want the u. S. To join but President Trump has shown little willingness to do so. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Guy greatly appreciated. Tom we have equities higher. Dow futures up dramatically along with the Standard Poors 500. Vix comes in at 50 with yields higher. Oil turning with prudent headlines. That meeting delayed. Dollar resilient this morning. Guy johnson . Guy we will see exactly what happens is the week progresses. In terms of europe, stops are big stocks are big. The pound is catching a bit as well. Reverting some earlier losses. The Prime Minister in st. Thomas hospital. 3. 5 the downside. You can see three basis points higher. 41. Despite the negative investor data coming out of europe. May be pointing to further risks ahead for that space. Thank you so much. I greatly appreciate you being here with us from london today. We want to begin on a monday with someone who is experienced with sweat. Charles figure counter, not running the fitness team but very much used to crisis. He has been involved in some transactions that have been very visible including whole foods and amazon. Mostly he has been involved in what to do when it is ugly. Charles, what have you done in the last week or two . Take a quick look here to your actions over last 10 days. We are in unprecedented times. We start with the idea that it is impossible to get to guess tomorrow. We fundamentally pray for the health of the nation and believe innovation, entrepreneurial spirit and human determination will get us through. Perspective, we want to own the most privileged companies we can. As a longterm investor, we try to as best as possible we think this is an environment where it is about owning Strong Companies and strong Balance Sheets. Those that have scale, technology, strong supply chains. Incredibly to be tough for week companies for weak companies. They lack the time and duration. The flexibility of their Balance Sheets to get through this meaningful pause tom in economic activity. If i listen tom if i listen to the parameters you are listing to find value and growth, there is this understanding that this pandemic will end. It sounds like you are describing a company like apple. What do you do with apple in particular and what you do with apple and its preponderance of china supply and china revenue. I think we are talking about Companies Like apple and amazon. T and adobe and we are thinking about companies that have the fortitude of their Balance Sheet to get through this environment. Longterm, the question around supply chains will be fundamental. You will getse is a much deeper conversation about the risk and reward of having very distributed supply chains. This sense is a lot of supply will come closer to home, so to speak. That will come with a cost as well. It will come closer to home with more certainty, higher cost and ultimately lower return on capital which i think is a tradeoff that many executives will be more than willing to make as we come through this environment. The existential question of course is not if we get through it, i would never bet against americans, but when. I think that when is fundamentally important. Outcomes the outcomes are not the data. The longer we wait, the longer , the tougher it gets. Some point, it will bring. Ealth and wellbeing tom guy just want to followup on a couple of things, first of all can i back up to talking about the most privileged companies . Do you buy those companies by the credit channel or via the exd channel. Thats a fair question. The most privileged i described dont actually have credits to buy. Their Balance Sheets are for the most part cash rich, not leverage rich. Believers in thinking about risk and reward. It is not just about upside, it is about return with reward. The credit markets are really interesting right now. Activitynprecedented by the Federal Reserve and the thattmentgrade markets ultimately spills over im guessing into the highyield markets. Environment, it is no panacea. It is about knowing your company under details and understanding the inherent advantages once we get through this. I think it is very case specific. I think you stay with quality, certainly for us. Companiesstries and within industries that are going ly longer toingful return as normal behavior returns, we probably are not willing to bet on regardless of whether it is credit or equity. If i am an active manager and i can buy single creditor, is this an environment that favors me . If i cant get that granular, if my mandates doesnt allow it, what do i do . How do i work in this market if i am only able to sort of work at an index level. I fundamentally believe we have entered the golden eggs of stockpicking. We have entered the golden age of understanding details. We are entering a world that is no longer low volatility. Knowing your details on a company and sector basis will never be more important. That, we have entered the age of human capital. The corn stalks have proved that when computers speak to computers you get a range of outcomes that proved to be devastating. As it relates to the index level, i would argue i would posit that it is growth over value. Quality over cyclicality. Good Balance Sheets over bad Balance Sheets. This, givenould say the unprecedented amount of volatilities, at the individual level it gives folks the unique understandtruly their risk and reward preferences. Its best tested today. When they look and they find that their risk preferences and tolerance for risk has shifted. They should listen to their inner selves and at an index el adjust act locations adjust allocations. It is the bet you take when you invest in securities or Asset Classes like equities and highyield. This is been hugely valuable. R, thanks for joining us. Are in london and new york. Importantvery interview. Right from the moment this virus appeared, he has dedicated his data to the mathematics. Guy johnson infra francine lacqua. This is bloomberg. Tom good morning everyone on monday. Guy johnson in london, i am tom keene in new york. We are continuing in this pandemic to bring you the best we can. The markets were the risk on field today. Of course, we look at the epidemiology of this horrific crisis. Begins nordic with us. A good conversation on foreign exchange. Institutions, data is shifted radically in the last two or four weeks toward an analysis of covid. What have you learned about the virus what is the original distinctive thing you see in your Virus Research . Thank you. A coupleen more than weeks. We have been doing this since january. It has been quite a while and it is going to go on for quite a while. What we are seeing now is European Data is better. Of new cases coming out numerous European Countries are on a better past. Switzerland, germany, italy, spain and france even though there is some noise in the data are looking better. When you get that aggressive with social about 1015fter days you see results. We have many examples of that now. Hopefully we can apply that to the u. S. Within the next two weeks. It has been slower, but some states have done aggressive measures during the last two weeks of march. That should start to show up in the data in the u. S. Tom could you transfer of the glide path of new york and new jersey cases, death and recoveries over to other localities in the United States . Can you take the horrific pandemic we see in this region and translate it to a burgeoning in florida . There is no doubt we have seen spaces that were early in the broader Washington State was early. In the new york. And then we have states that have late outbreaks and leader policy responses. Theerms of seeing optimistic signs, youre going to look to Washington State were there already are policy measures. Going to see later improvement in places like florida and the south. You can already see it clearly. If you look at the growth rates of new cases in the last week or so, it is the south and midwest that are growing the most, whereas the west and northeast is growing less. That pattern is clear and is likely to become more pronounced in the next two to three weeks. State to state travel is still allowed in the United States. What impact is that having on your data . Good point. Clearly, the United States is different in that we have not had a National Level locked down, we have not had border closes and so forth. I think there has been a lot of talk about spring break, there was a lot of travel still going on and that was a lost opportunity. Thats dead, we that said, we track a lot of data and travel is dramatically down. That includes car traffic and air travel. Even if we dont have an official travel ban between states, we do have a dramatic reduction in people moving. I think the distinction between it anda policy that bans people doing it more organically is perhaps not that important. At this point in time. I think it is kicking in organically in the u. S. We are trying to get a handle on what happens during phase one come the lockdown peaks where the peek are going to come from. And then we look at phase two and phase three. How much clarity do we have and howase one, two, much clarity and reality do we have about phase three . It sounds like you have been reading my research. [laughter] phase two which is getting the outbreak under control and getting peak situations. Korea, china and the European Countries i mentioned. Goodnk we have a understanding of what it takes in terms of social distancing to put in a peak in terms of daily cases. The template we can look at in terms of how do we get from a peak in new cases to a very low number. There, china is the best template. Took 3040 days to get from peek down to a low number. Perhaps it will be longer in places like italy and spain were entrenched. Is that is the timetable. Phase three is how quickly we can get the economy back. This is big uncertainty. Thank you. Tom thank you so much. This is bloomberg. Good morning. Surveillance. More coming up on Bloomberg Radio but we will continue here with a conversation with the gentleman from little rock. We are thrilled to bring you french hill and what he observes as the next step for the president and his republicans. Stay with us, this is bloomberg. Theres no place like home. Especially when xfinity has you covered with fast, reliable internet. With advanced security to help keep you secure online. And with the most tv shows, movies and streaming apps all in one place. With simple Digital Tools you can get the help you need or even trouble shoot your services on your own. Download the xfinity my account app or just say help into your xfinity voice remote. We are working to make things a little easier on everyone. Download the xfinity my account app today. Lets get your first word news, the president is saying we are starting to see light at the end of the tunnel. The president and the Vice President seeing signs that the out rake is starting to stabilize, a day by day reduction in the state of new york, and the morning this week could be, quote, our pearl harbor moment. Now to the spotlight in europe, moving to the u. K. , Prime Minister Boris Johnson taken to the hospital for testing while he is recovering from the disease. That could not come at a worse time, almost 5000 in the u. K. Died so far. In the next week to 10 days, Scientists Say the peak is likely. Democratic leaders want Steven Mnuchin to speed up the airlines a lot. Nancy pelosi and Chuck Schumer saying that the secretary should quickly provide direct support for the care years and want him to avoid restrictive terms that could deter the airlines from taking the money. Is Prime Minister in japan proposing a package that could help people and businesses hurt by the coronavirus. He also will propose a state of emergency to be declared in seven sectors including tokyo. That comes after cases surged over the weekend. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Tom greatly appreciate that report. What we can all agree on is the businesses,2 small not successful, and there is disagreement, but Small Business, everyone is in agreement it is urgent and it is not happening. Is french hill. Congressman, thank you. For joining us. One of the experts what did the experts at simmons tell you about the desperation of Small Business in arkansas . Rep. Hill good morning. Glad to be with you. There were a lot of applications on friday, a few fundings on friday, but i would say the number one issue was getting portal access on the sba upload theility to loans. It got better a little bit over the weekend. Could be good news. Do you see urgency to do another tranche of eight and another as we see 6 million and 10 million and maybe by next week 17 million claims out there. What is the next for that republicans and your president . Rep. Hill i think the president and Stephen Mnuchin committed to ask congress for more money for the Small Business program if it is needed over the next few weeks. Over the weekend i think 23 obligated, soen lets see how we go this week. Another president and the treasury secretary are committed to getting more if we need it to keep the businesses up and running. There is aorning. Debate raging as to whether we should move on and start thinking about a stemless plan to make sure there is a Strong Economy for the Small Businesses to return into when they come out of hibernation. Is it too early to Start Talking about the next round, about stimulus rather than relief . Rep. Hill that is a good question. I do not think it is too early to be thinking about what might be composed, but i really do think it is prudent to invest trillion and the leverage resources over this first month and look back in early may and see where we are both in the Public Health crisis and the economic results to see if something further is needed. Guy just a Bigger Picture question, we are trying to understand how the november election be affected by what is. Appening right here right now the democrats have decided they will target your district, probably the most competitive out of the four and arkansas. Pointing to a are great chance that we will have a democratic president next time round, how do you think november will be affected, or is it simply too far away to gauge that . Rep. Hill i think it is really just too early. We live in a very volatile time as you know very well. I think we have to wait and see wet the circumstances are as go into early fall here before we come to any conclusion about the outcome. Tom little rock is a bit of a distance away from new york city. Obviously new york city is the epicenter of all of this pandemic. We are beginning to see a distribution in america, florida, michigan, and even colorado earlier on. Tell us about your about how your arkansas is living this pandemic right now. 16. Hill we have lost people to covid and we regret out tond we have reached comfort those families. Our governor has done a good job with planning with the Emergency Management and Health Officials including the Public Health department to stay out ahead of. He planning necessary tom thank you. ,eve got more to come here markets elevating very nicely worldwide. This is bloomberg. Tom good morning, everyone. Right now we would like to turn our attention to one of the Great Research institutions of america, there was a book Johns Hopkinsthe university and their lead on research here. In many areashis including their acclaimed engineering program. School ofso their Michael Bloomberg of course the principal owner of this network has been committed to this institution he intended Generic School there and of course it is the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins university. We are thrilled that Joshua Sharfstein can join us right now. Dr. , we are thrilled you can be with us with your fda experience. I have read carefully the reports over the weekend of f the president and dr. The malariaviewing medication. Give us your thoughts about the heated debate. What was the thought you had . When i saw that, i thought here we go again. This has been more than one trying tor the fda make the case that just because one patient may do well or a couple does not mean the treatment actually works. The most important thing is to do a good study so you can understand whether it works, how much it works, in what population, that is how you get Real Progress is to really understand treatment. This has been going on around cancer treatments, other treatments for years. Now we are seeing it again. I certainly support what dr. Fauci said, which is you really do not know until you do the study to allow you to figure out whether the drug causes the patient to get better. Tom how do you respond to the demarcation of the president of the United States between academics and doctors . Between the divide theory the practice of academic medicine, drug tests and the application of it in the field where he wants to take the risk on this cocktail. Think it is ok i when theres no other treatments for doctors to try things, but doctors want more than just treatment to try. They want treatments that work. People deserve evidence, not just hope. It is important to temper expectations with reality and do studies and talk about the need for real data. Its ok for doctors to be trying this or that. There are few tools right now. That should not detract from the urgent need, and we all should understand that things that we are trying, they may or may not work. We are throwing things at the problem now. Until we have evidence that tells us what works. Guy lets talk about that. Good morning. Where do you see the greatest progress being made right now in terms of therapies and vaccines to deal with this . My sense from talking to people is that it is probably not in the medications that the president is promoting. I hope the studies there out that those have value, but i think the Real Progress right now that people are more excited about has to do with the immune therapies, whether you can use the antibodies that people who have recovered from the virus have made, take them out of their blood and give them to others. Earlier, even before they are exposed, and there are studies like that at Johns Hopkins and other institutions with promising data, but a lot more evidence is needed. I am hopeful because so many have recovered from the coronavirus, that they can be donors and others can benefit. That would be a relatively shortterm preventive therapy and treatment that could make a difference. It could also point the way to antibodies and other products that might have a meaningful impact in the short term. Guy what is your sense of the accuracy of the models that we are spending so much time paying attention to for predicting where we will see the peak in the number of cases . Dr. Sharfstein i think theres a little bit of a misunderstanding about the concept of the peak. Know, forople, you where we are, there will be a peak. The only reason is because we have shut everything down. Some people think and you are on the other side of the peak, you can open everything back up. The reason it is peaking is because we have shut everything down. When we open things up, it will go up. We have to use the time that we to strengthen the Health Care System and get more equipment to Health Care Workers and to build a stronger response so we have another set of tools besides just shutting everything down. Tom we are flattening the curve. It has been successful in certain geographies. Of the baltimore orioles, they will have a big game here against the red sox and they will pack the field, no question about that. Will it be safe to go to a baseball game with all of those people crammed in . Dr. Sharfstein certainly it is not safe at the moment. That is a wonderful ballpark, but i think people realize their health comes first. Right now that is not possible. What will happen i think is we will have to come and i like this analogy that others have made, maybe we have flipped off the light in our world kind of quickly, but when we turn it on it will be more like a dimmer switch. Absent a miraculous treatment, we will have to move very slowly, making sure that we do not have cases surge so high that they put the system in jeopardy again. It will not be baseball games or football matches that will go first. It will be where more people , in particularly industries, probably not restaurants and bars. Look at singapore, they have kept the number of things open and they have encouraged social distancing. They do not have large gatherings like sporting events. They have been using a very Robust Health response to keep it in check. But they recently had an increase of the have dialed up there social distancing. I think it will be most likely a period re, like a dimmer set switch, until we can get the light all the way on. Tom turning to Johns Hopkins and Public Health, i look at it like infrastructure where that nation has a tradition of being underfunded. Theres no question we have been that way when we look at this moment and this pandemic. What is the first condition to better Public Health in america . First we need Public Health is lost more than 50,000 workers in the last decade. It has been very underfunded, but particular now bear our people to do some of these tasks, that is very important. We will need partnerships, even with more people we still not have the reach. We will have to have the private sector mobilized behind Public Health in different areas and provide resources like hotel space for people to stay when they are sick. I think for the future we will need to rethink the priorities. We have so little attention paid to prevention of different kinds, including the harm a pandemic can cause. Guy we appreciate your time. Thank you. News coming up from jp morgan over the next couple of minutes, jamie dimons letter is out and he is back from surgery. That theing basically earnings at the bank will be in 2020. Indicating the institution will not request any regulatory relief and he expects the Financial Stress to be similar to the 2008 crises. He is saying that the virus will include the fallout from it will include a bad recession. A dividend cut is unlikely, only out of extreme prudence, but these comments obviously paint the picture of the Worlds Largest Financial Institution bearing up under the strain but certainly it is clear that that financial strain is significant at this point. It is interesting that he draws parallels with the stress being similar to that seen in 2008. More analysis to follow. This is bloomberg. We have an exclusive about emergency lending facilities put in place and the emotional reactions to what happened friday. It is a sad day. We had job growth for well over a decade, and it is hard to see the numbers so negative. I think everyone expects a very serious downward tilt on the job site and this is just the first indicator. If you look at the initial claims for the last two weeks, the highest ever have been 700,000 in 1982. Last week was 3. 2 million and s week it was six point 6. 2 million. Getting does that seem crazy to you . Does the bank of richmond have any kind of forecast at this point . Tom this is still unprecedented. I think forecasting is a silly thing to do. But i look at the numbers just to get some perspective on it. Restaurants and bars employ about 12 million, and physical retail excluding food and drug another 11, travel entertainment another five, so even in those sectors which you know have been hit hard, you can get to 30 million pretty quickly. Tom this all adds new urgency to the effort to get operating capital to companies per how fast is the federal government going to be able to get the program and when can you start lending to people who need the money . To assume the goals of the legislation, putting a lot of money in support. It will just take time to work out the details with the treasury, our cosponsor on this. As you can see with the small loans that were just announced, a lot of the devil is in the details, it is complicated so you get money to get to the people who really need it. It is challenging, and we are working hard and trying to get it out as fast as we can. Are people who say the federal legislation says no buybacks, no dividends no big raises for ceos, but there are reports that that will not necessarily apply to them, if you put those restrictions on, Companies May not apply for loans which would be worse because they might have trouble keeping people on the payroll. How do you feel about that . Is beingof this stuff worked together with the treasury and just give us a little bit of time to land the parameters. European stocks are up between two and 4 and the fair value on the s p currently opening up by nearly 4 . This is bloomberg. Because you cant get to the theater, were bringing the theater home to you with xfinity movie premiere. Such news. I know what this is. 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