Contraction than anyone realized , and the statistics on this pandemic are not all that good, are they . Francine now, they are not great. We have that horrific figure of 2 Million People infected worldwide, however we are seeing the u. S. , germany, and others thinking about relaxing the rules. It is different in japan where they are talking about a state of emergency. Today, overall the initial claim tally is said to push the fourweek total to 22 Million People without a job. We will spend time talking about that, and we have a headline from apple. I just got the air pods. Apple plans over a year headphones to bolster business working from home. Tom we have seen apple with product announcements including the smaller i found in the last lasturs, iphone in the 48 hours and they are separated from the collapse in smallcap. Right now, here is viviana hurtado. Viviana donald trump will unveil today plans to relax stayathome guidelines and suggests the coronavirus is flatlining in parts of the country, yesterday speaking with more than 200 Business Media leaders. More testing needs to be put into place before people feel comfortable coming to work. He may use an untested power to make both houses of congress adjourned. The president complaining the democrats are holding up nominees for jobs, but most of the jobs are open because no one has been nominated to fill them. The Trump Administration may pay Oil Producers to leave crude and the ground. A proposal from the Energy Department would make part of stockpilend emergency part of the oil reserve. The plan is aimed at easing a glut. It is expected to extend its nationwide lockdown. Dominic raab will make the call, standing in for Boris Johnson who is recovering from the coronavirus. There are signs the u. K. May be past the worst of the pandemic. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom thank you so much, greatly appreciated. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Off the terminal on my cell phone, faster than the terminal. 41. 56 and green on the screen, a pretty good market. Futures up 10 and noticed dollar strength. Notice dollar strength. What do you see . Francine the laptop is pretty fast. Curbs. Is extending through. Tering ,tocks and futures are rising investors seeking to gauge the extent of the damage by coronavirus and waiting for the next set of economic data, jobless figures later on. Christine lagarde coming out with some headlines. The ecb will do everything necessary within its mandate, and they are accepting further requests for euro swap lines. Fromgine that extends Health Sharing of information and resources as well as economic. Tom i am glad you bring it up. This is sort of a daily basis, and one of the tranches of alphabet soup of assistance from the United States of government, we will run out of that pot of money today or tomorrow. The speed of change we see including madame lagardes comments, extraordinary. One of the most qualified people i know to link in the profit atlosion, Steven Wieting citigroup working in strategy and linking profit and stock Market Performance into the greater economy. Thank you for joining us. How much have you had to change your outlook . How far away from january 31 are you now . Steven very, very far away. We are expecting the u. S. Economy to contract more than 4 in 2020, and we think that the current quarter, the Second Quarter if you think about it would fall about 10 in level. Gdp data is an annualized contraction of about 40 . We have got to remember that this is again an exhaustion a shock. The econ exile janice shock. Us shock. O the prolonged downturn of 2008 2009, this is shutting the economy down. If you think about a construction metaphor, it is always faster to demolish than to rebuild. The come back, we could have rapid growth rates but that exaggerates. When that drops, you get growth rates that sound appealing but the level of profits will be a long time before they are back to the levels of 2019. Tom why do we see the character of the stock market, selective stocks doing great but the lift off the bottom we have seen if you have given me the worst economic review i have ever heard . Steven that is the worst one, ok. As a starting point, the timing for which markets would recover, if you believe our outlook that we have shut the economy down late in the First Quarter and most of the Second Quarter, and there is some partial falling rebound in the Third Quarter and beyond, the timing for risky assets to start rising is now. It is fairly soon. The question is level and which assets. This type of Economic Contraction is extremely mean to main street, to small businesses, to firms that have a low level of capital at hand to work off to stay in business. It has a terrible economic effect. Theome other respects, digital economy, the economy ecommerce, the retail sales report, Department Stores crushed. Ecommerce soaring. There is great dispersion and Financial Markets have priced that dispersion. That has been beneficial to largecap u. S. Shares more than any other in the world. Francine what is worse for the economy, reopening and having to close if there are a number of infections and debt that rise, or keeping it closed for longer . Reopeningwould say just having to shut it down would be worse in many respects, particularly Financial Markets. Having a distinct low point could help Financial Markets and i cannot say what is the rate public policy. I am not sure it is one or the other, that until there is an effective widespread vaccine we will not go back to what we were before, and there will be changes, things we learn and adapt to. Having social distancing with an economy that is open, being able to go to a restaurant, being able to be at different tables with different patrons further apart, that is different than now where you cannot go at all. There has got to be some middle ground we will find our bay back to. Find our way back to. It depends on how strong the testing is and people who built can you and immunity seems reasonable to me. Francine how will our economies be changed forever . What will be the legacy . Steven it may accelerate some chain trends that have existed. When you think about telemedicine, videoconferencing, i am not on a Video Conference at the moment with you, but the point is we are doing a tremendous amount. When you think about the extent of travel that we have, whether that is Ground Transportation or air transportation, we are not going to take virtual holidays, but the amount of Business Travel i doubt will be the same in the future, and that is just one. This trend of digitization, which was powerful before in that part of the economy and the Virtual World we live in will be even stronger. Tom you are very prescient to , as weout the digital have statements from mr. Bezos from amazon. Theirep will be next step will be testing of all staff and they are working with the World Health Organization to track and understand the virus, with their challenges in france where they literally shut down their operation. They are worried about safety. Later, Morgan Stanley earnings and Erik Schatzker in conversation with mr. Gorman. From london and new york, this is bloomberg. Tom good morning, bloomberg surveillance. With us from citi, Steven Wieting. As a general rule with winners and losers, do i want to be left diversified now . Do i want to attempt a concentration in things i hope will be successful . Steven i think that has been our strategy for the last couple of months, that Certain Industries will be the right ones, that you would rather be a poorly capitalized medical mask maker then being a wellcapitalized airline. In a sense, we would put the Sector Impact first, strong Balance Sheets in line, and i would just say that there has been so much dispersion in pricing in the last couple of sector, onefavorite of our unstoppable themes has been investing longevity, invest in the Health Care Sector. American health care is the biggest sector in the u. S. Stock market, so having those investments in the Health Care Sector has obviously played to this particular crisis, or any economic slump where it is not cyclical. At the same time, the declines in those shares which probably areld not be declining, modest. You have to revolve the portfolio and start taking more risk in time now that we have had this big turn. Not everybody is happy, it is not low enough for them. The usual complaints. Francine what do you do with gold . That goes to whether you see the pandemic being deflationary or disinflationary. Steven we have been overweight gold coming into the crisis as a risk hedge and added further to gold above our tactical recommendations even further in the month of february. The performance has been strong, but as you can see, it has performed so well and you just have to remember this is also a risk asset. Our fundamental view here is that it is asymmetric in terms of its pricing. Conditions of strong u. S. Outperformance and higher real Interest Rates would push down gold. That combination of eventually succeeding, having the Federal Reserve stay easy for a long time, which is the playbook they have argued, will get us declines in the dollar which will be favorable for gold. A great deal has worked out in the market already and it has outperformed strongly. Compared to many things investors might do with active hedging with derivatives, that if you are not doing that, gold is a great backstop. Francine thank you so much, Steven Wieting. Bloomberg,ater on guy johnson in conversation with the airbus chief executive. They will talk about fleets, the pandemic, and when we see a new normal with airlines. This is blue. This is bloomberg. Tom good morning, everyone, bloomberg surveillance. It is unusual to do this. We are focused on the pandemic and this Economic Contraction, but once in a while something happens in america that is absolutely extraordinary. Translates, our chief washington correspondent. The gentleman of harvard law review mr. Raskin said yesterday this is a banana republic. He did that when the president decided he would provide for a dissolution of congress. What was the response of your sources, republican and democrat, to the idea than any president would Adjourn Congress . Kevin i think there is confusion, to put it in plain speak, and here is why. Yesterday when i was talking with people about how lawmakers are going to be able to convene to respond to the needs of the country from an economic perspective, there is also this issue of practicality, how will they vote . Differents really no than what businesses around the world are grappling with, how do lawmakers and policymakers essentially work from home . We have seen this play out in the Congressional Institute but also with the coop supreme you will be hearing tell arguments over the next months. Withovernment is arguing the Business Community and out to work with the telecommunicative process and working from home. Francine how is President Trump being judged on his efforts with covid19 . If the economy reopens too soon and has to close, will that penalize him for the election . Kevin that is the 64,000 question and this is where i focus on battleground states like michigan. Yesterday, i spoke on Bloomberg Radio with the former spokesperson for the state department in the Obama Administration who later became thepress secretary and said Obama Campaign is going to have to this is an economic election. They will have to put forth an economic agenda for those battleground states because the president is saying that absolutely he wants to reopen portions of the economy. He is making that political calculation that come november, he can say in a debate stage he wanted to open up the economy and open borders and that will be the heart of what republicans will be saying. Biden will have to craft a message to workingclass america in a massive economic downturn. Tom kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. We look at the data in our 6 00 our. 8 30, jobless claims. Yesterday was what it was and today, a rebound day with the vix in the 41 area. Lots going on. Francine, what do you see in the data . Francine i am looking at what europe is doing. Andad data from europe, what we heard from Christine Lagarde is having an impact on the common currency. Further requests for swap lines and she says she will do everything she can. Tom i am glad you bring up the ecb swap lines and you wonder if that is a precursor of a light coordination of what we could see. Coming up, we have been talking to Health Experts around the nation and focusing on Johns Hopkins university with their clear statistic leadership. Jason farley will join us from Johns Hopkins with his expertise on the trenches, on what is going on with physicians and nurses. Stay with us worldwide. This is bloomberg. Suggests nationwide, we are past the peak on new cases. Hopefully that will continue and we will continue to make great progress. These encouraging developments have put us in a strong position to finalize guidelines on reopening the country, which we will be announcing, talking about that tomorrow. We will be announcing guidelines and talking about various dates and it is very exciting. It has been a horrible time to see such death and destruction. Was President Donald Trump hinting that new guidelines for stayathome rules. The disease is showing time signs of plateauing. Business. T, says more coronavirus testing needs to be in place before people feel comfortable coming back to work. He spoke to more than 200 Business Owners about reopening the company and will come out with guidelines. Joe biden blasting the president for having what he calls temper tantrums, urging President Trump to set a better example for the country and calling on the president to further mobilize the country to fight coronavirus pandemic. The city is expecting the economy citi is expecting the economy to crater. They are estimating 485,000 jobs will be lost. Is this year, new yorks gdp likely to decline 4. 5 . The city had been expecting the economy to grow 1. 8 . Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. Thank you so much. Breaking headlines on the bloomberg terminal, we need to spend a bit of time on it, zine a billiono seek dollars in credit lines and we from bigar amounts companies that need extra funding. As we continue to track the developed aberg has unique partnership with one of the leading institutions, looking at the figures and the number of those infected and an authority on covid19. Johns hopkins has been on the for freight and every day we will bring you on the front line and every day we will bring you updates. We are pleased to bring you jason farley from the Johns Hopkins school of nursing. What do we understand about the percentage of people that become critically ill . Do we have that data . How much does it impact us . Jason yes, we know we are looking at how many people become critically ill. Approximately 20 of people hospitalized, needing some form group,e care and of that approximately half will need mechanical ventilation. Those tend to skew toward the older population and we are still seeing that data consistent with what we have seen around the world. Francine the Response Team in the u. S. And around the world, did they have enough equipment in the with the virus coming weeks and months . Jason the administration has supportstarted to offer to the states in trying to get more ppe. There have been herculean efforts by various governors across the United States to bring in more masks, gowns, gloves, and face shields. That has been different across states, as you have seen reporting. Different governors have had to personal barter protective agreement from various agencies, including going overseas to obtain masks from china and other countries. In my home state of maryland, 95e governor has launched an n reprocessing saying Center Center to reuse the masks. We are being very resilient to make sure we have enough ppes. Tom you are expert in the ep dme allergy of infectious epidemiology of Infectious Diseases and Johns Hopkins has done the best job in a regional, city, nationwide epidemiology and study of statistics. The second derivatives for some of these regions, california, florida, they are not very good. New jersey, it is not happening. Tell us about the di