A lot of investors and traders like to see that broadbased movement. We have a nice risk on move. It is not clear this is not simply a bear market rally. It is too early to say. Today the bulls are out once again. David that is reasonably cheerful. Now i have to ask you about oil because it has fallen out of bed. Abigail we have oil down more than 25 . The crude oil crash continues. This is an important point relative to stocks. On the year, stocks are down 10 . Oil is down 80 . Both are considered to be risk asset tells. Oil you can make that case is more closely tied to the economy. Because you have oil solo, some of it has to do with the Technical Training factors. At the end of the day, it reflects a demand shock we are seeing. Unless oil comes back, it is hard to see the economy looking all that strong me time soon. With thetock investors case folks are looking ahead to 2021. If you have oil down that sharply it is hard to know whether that strategy will work. We will have more information over the next couple of months to see whether the supply got can be worked off. Today the bulls are out. For stocks. David we will end on that happy note. Money is starting to flow to small and mediumsized businesses under the ppp program it is time to Start Talking about what is coming next. We turned to Josh Wingrove who covers the white house for bloomberg. Last week the president said he wanted to give aid to states, and then Mitch Mcconnell set what we let them go bankrupt, and today i thought week siding with Mitch Mcconnell saying these are democratic states that have not run themselves well, the president suggesting no state a. Josh he does this a lot. He is musing and signaling that he does not like the idea and he sees a political lens on it and that will determine where these talks go. This morning his press secretary has already been out saying we need to start moving towards phase four talks. She suggested he wants infrastructure to be part of it. This is coming as the ppp program, the Paycheck Protection Program got up and running again and there is already pickups with that. It looks like the system is being overwhelmed as people tried to get money after it ran out earlier. We do not know whether there will be more money needed for that. Are we having people rush for this tranche only to see it be the last one or a new one coming forward. These are open questions. We expect to hear from the president later this afternoon during a meeting with certain executives. There is no briefing this evening. The white house is tweaking how it is doing its daily messaging with regards to the virus. David we may have lost the daily briefings for the time being. Lets go back to the ppp program. One question is there enough money. There is another question being raised about whether it is going to the places intended. We have 13 publicly traded companies returning 170 million. What are we going to make sure this goes to small stores rather than bigger chains . Josh it is mixed. On the one hand they are taking steps to restricted. The sba said it will limit the maximum dollar amount of loans. On the other hand you have the white house insisting it is working. The press secretary said only 0. 3 of these loans have been highvalue loans. They are trying to argue it is the small folks who are getting that. Many Small Business owners are saying that has not been the case. Right now there are warning signs, if not clear signs that this will run out, that this money will run out. We do not know what they will do. There will be some republicans in the senate calling for more money. Others have been proposing different programs. It is up in the air right now. They do look to try to be restraining the program so the Larger Companies remember it was based on the employees per location that allow the shake shacks of the world to tap in. David shake shack gave back the money. If we will not hear from the president , will we hear from anybody on the state of the coronavirus . We were having the daily briefings. It was not just the president. If the president is not going to be there, will we have any briefings at all . Josh they said we will have briefings later this week, but it looks like the president wants to talk more about the economy. We will hear from him, it will be in a different room and with the ceos. Startignals he wants to talking more about the economy. We are still seeing sobering death rates and infection rates across the United States, though he is under pressure to justify why it is time to reopen. I think we will start seeing them chocolate backandforth. You might hear from Health Officials every couple of days rather than every day. David thank you so much. That is Josh Wingrove, who covers the white house for bloomberg. Coming up, economic numbers are bad, but at the same time people are eager to start the economy back up. We will get the views of ellen hughes krohn way, former chief economist for the Ford Motor Company. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David time for first word news. For that we go to mark crumpton. The white house is reportedly finalizing expanded guidelines for the reopening of society. That includes the phase reopening of schools, churches, restaurants, and other businesses. The post reports the process has led to sharp debates between Health Experts and other officials. Boris johnson is back at work after recovering from the coronavirus. In his first public statement, Prime Minister johnson urged people not to give up on social distancing. He said lifting the lockdown would risk a second spike of infection that could do more damage. Greece will begin gradually easing its lockdown restrictions next week. The first phase will see the reopening of shops and hair salons. Churches and schools will start operating targa second phase. Greeces Prime Minister will unveil more specifics tomorrow. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. I am mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. David . David as i said, economic numbers have been coming in dismal he. At the same time, there is a lot of eagerness to get the economy back up and running. For a view, we welcome ellen hughescromwick, former chief economist at the Ford Motor Company and also at the Commerce Department and now she is a senior resident fellow at third way. Great to have you with us. Give us your general view about how complicated and difficult we can go about getting the economy going again. Ellen very complicated. As economists we are hanging on every word from Health Experts to understand what the path might look like. We have the three openings starting we have these reopenings starting and we are looking at data from the Health Community to make sure we understand what the potential pathway is. , weveat the same time been told manufacturing may come back toward the early stage of the economy because there is a possibility of social distancing. You have some experience in manufacturing. What are the possible problems with the supply chain . The fact that you open a plant does not mean you have what you need to make things. You are absolutely right. It brings back a lot of memories about the Global Financial crisis and how difficult it is to restart and get a supply chain back up and running. Back then, we had a government that did provide support to suppliers as well as to the manufacturers. What i am looking at right now is the risk around sole sourcing on a supply chain. When you have one company that provides a vital component, that can cause the supply chain to crumble. I am a bit concerned about that as we look ahead. David what about the balance sheet. What about the cash flow of some of these companies. We heard from gm saying we will suspend our stock buybacks. Ford also went into the debt market. Does this surprise you at all . What is the Financial Condition of our major automakers . Ellen friday when we get auto sales for the month of april will give us a little bit of insight at what run rate is now materializing. As you know, on cash flow and cash burn, it all depends on where demand will settle. Layingthese companies plans for coming back and getting their production up and running. The big question from my standpoint and my experience is what happens on the demand side . The we saw last friday and university of Michigan Consumer sentiment numbers was that consumers were not feeling very good about getting back to buying, especially homes and autos. That is a big concern. It is a tangoe between getting production back but then looking at where are we going to settle. Are people with incomes at todays levels, they are concerned. Are they going to buy a big ticket item . David it is not surprising to be concerned given the fact that we have 26 Million People so far who have filed for jobless claims. It is expected go up a few million more this week. At the same time, the federal government is trying to pump people into 8 00 pump money into the economy. At what point will we see that take hold and reduce unemployment rates . Ellen we will see a little bit of that start to come in when we get to the summer months. Fiscal policy always impacts the though with a lag, even the treasury has been aggressive in getting its checks out, the basic point here is we are not done with government policy. We will have to see more, especially support for state and local governments. They will be hemorrhaging their tax revenues are not coming in with the shutdown. They will need help because they have been on the front lines responding to this health crisis. The stabilization funds there. Certainly more direct payments. Especially our frontline workers. One check will not be enough. David at the same time we have the fed, who has done a lot. Do you expect more out of the fed to help the economy this week . Ellen that is a great question. Probablyhey are of what every aspect potential additional actions and facilities they could provide. We have had very good signals in terms of stabilization of different corners of the financial markets. The mortgage situation is still a concern, even with forbearance and helping of the mortgage servicers. I think we should count on the fed to be ready to launch some additional facilities if they look at the economy and say we need it. We cannot just expect liquidity facilities to be a trickledown approach. We have to make sure people on the ground are getting the help they need. If you are advising the fed, would you say that should be the debt market, things like the main street facility they do not have up and running . There is some talk about purchasing equities. Does that make sense to you . Ellen certainly. As you look ahead, what could the fed be looking at . The second wave of potential job hurt will be in the cyclically sensitive sectors. That haveig companies a lot of employees. If demand does not come back, they will be faced with the financial strain you mentioned earlier, and having to undertake layoffs. It is the second wave. What kind of facilities can they help to make sure that does not crumble in front of us as we get into the summer months and into the fall . Some of the stuff they have done , they havee bonds gone much farther than anyone wouldve anticipated 30 to 60 days ago. Iny may have to do more opening up to support Large Companies with large numbers of employees, it may be something they have to look at more aggressively. David thank you so much for joining us. That is ellen hughescromwick, senior resident fellow at third way. While we have been talking, news is posted from the ap that new york will cancel its june 23 president ial primary because of the coronavirus. We will keep reporting on that as it develops. Coming up later, we will have senator bill cassidy of louisiana. He has a bipartisan bill to give aid to the states with senator menendez. He will be explaining why that is necessary. Ons is balance of power Bloomberg Television and radio. David welcome back to balance of power. Oil is falling precipitously. Our colleague alix steel sat down with jeff currie of Goldman Sachs to talk about what is going on in the oil market. Is going to hit Storage Capacity constraints and test capacities. When they do that, once you hit those capacity limits, supply has equal demand no matter what. That is when you see the really Large Production cuts happen. It will not likely be in the past numbers, but is likely coming in the next two to three weeks. What is happening at cushing will become more of the global phenomenon. Im not arguing you will see the same price volatility you saw in wti last week in brent and the other markets. I think the key message is we are not out of the woods yet. This inflection phase we are in will likely last three to four weeks in oil, at which point, when you get to june, the market may be in a deficit. Remember youre are shutting the supply down. Demand is improving. Peak lockdown is passing. A deficit market will likely be reborn sometime in the late spring and early summer. It is still too early to buy. How before we get there, much volatility in spikes to the downside do you expect . Jeff it will be a violent rebalancing process. Look at it today. We are right back down again. What you need to do is every time the system bumps up against e. M. , whether it is transportation, processing, or Storage Capacity constraints, the prices spiked to the downside to take the supply out of the market until finally at the bottom all the supply has been taken out. Expect lots of volatility. When they go down, the supply is cut out, you free the pressure and they pop back up. Despite 30 to 40 up and down. ,lix lets go to the summer when we have a gradual reopening continue. We have seen the shutins already happen. What is your expectation for demand and how quickly it picks up and the supply picture . Jeff lets look at what we are learning from china right now. The one thing that is apparent is the recovery is uneven. It favors Industries Like construction and infrastructure, heavy industry where practicing social distancing measures in the workplace are relatively easy. Also people cannot work from home. Services and consumer goods have lagged. Recovery, anded we have modeled it using china as the prototype. China worked perfect on the way down, we think it will work very well on the way up. In terms of thinking about demand recovery, we are embedding a similar path we are seeing in china. Down 23 to 24m Million Barrels per day in april, in may we think that number will be closer to 18 Million Barrels. It is happening. It will be a gradual process. The key point is demand recovery is vshaped, supply recovery will likely be lshaped, and therein lies the deficit market. Alix interesting. That is what the outlook for oil is. I wonder if it is the same as the metals market. Oil has been hit harder than copper. Why . Jeff it goes back to the recovery we are witnessing in china. Again it favors heavy manufacturing, construction, and infrastructure. Iron or andlike copper have been in strong demand. You overlay that on top of huge restocking demands as well as pentup demand. The chinese have moved forward the building of the 2022 olympic facilities to get it done this year. That is all temporary. We think there is a lot of Downside Risk to move commodities like iron ore and copper for several reasons. This month and early next month will be the weakest part for chinese exports. , demand inchina places like the u. S. And europe is weak. You have inventories building and you have yet to price it in. Finally, in many countries that had social distancing measures and place, south africa, peru, canada, we think these mines will restart. Lots of Downside Risk. David that was Goldman Sachss jeff currie talking to alix steel about the state of the oil industry. Well be talking shortly with senator bill cassidy of louisiana. We want to repeat the news coming out just as we went on the air. New york reportedly will be canceling its june 23 president ial primary. It raises a lot of questions about what happens to the delegates. Does joe biden get them automatically . Our d. C. Bureau says they think the absentee ballots will continue to be filed. We will continue to monitor that to find out what they do new york for the president ial primary. In the meantime, we will have senator bill cassidy, republican from louisiana, with us. He has a bill with senator menendez of new jersey in which they want to give 500 billion to the states despite the fact that the president raised questions about whether that made sense. Well ask him about that and the return to business in his home state of louisiana. Ons is balance of power Bloomberg Television and radio. David welcome back to balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Im david westin. Not just the u. S. Economy struggling with this coronavirus. The same is happening in great britain. To mervyn king, the head of the bank of england, and asked whether there needs to be a similar stimulus package for the united kingdom. I dont think that is an immediate need now. Both the treasury and the bank of england have made clear they would provide whatever stimulus they judged to be needed. At present, stimulus is not needed because the government has told us to stop working, stayathome, dont go out and spend. They are trying to stop the economy from functioning at present. The question of stimulus is for one further down the road, and the bank of england can take whatever measures it feels is appropriate quickly. I dont think that is the immediate issue. The immediate is