[bellringing] tom the perspective here as in so many different nations is the dead of the hospital workers. For the nhs, over 90 people have died during this pandemic. In the united kingdom, how is the view, the perspective of the nhs changed . Silence the minute of where we saw boris johnson, the leader of the opposition, and the city grounding to a halt for one minute across the country to commemorate the 100 people who have died these are have died. These are key workers, people from transport, not only nhs. Many times over, ministers were asked about the number of key workers who had died and very few knew what that number was, so this follows a pretty explosive local tv network speaking to one of the sons of the key worker that died from the nhs, saying we really need an apology. This was welcome to unite the nation at a difficult time for the government to answer questions. Tom the symbolism we see as a general pandemic update, there is lots of good news. I know viviana will have it in a moment, but brazil is still a very difficult story. Our first word news in new york city. Viviana we stick with the coronavirus, from that somber fornt to a strategy coronavirus testing from the white house, states receiving new guidance on how to build testing. The goal is to speed up testing so states can reopen. The Federal Reserve is expanding an emergency Lending Program to cover small cities and counties. Cities with as few as 250,000 people can apply and allows them to sell shortterm debt to the fed liquidity facility. Today, spain and france unveiling their plans to ease restrictions on public life. Leaders are anxious to restart their economy but there are concerns it could backfire and lead to more infections. France just reported the most sincevirus infections april 18. New york oil plunged, going below 11 a barrel, the biggest oil etf selling all of its holdings. Oil has lost almost 80 this year. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Tom lets drive forward the news. We can do that off of our wonderful first word news, southwest made the 737 max orders and they can find a revenue trend given what they have seen in transportation. Pepsico withdraws a forecast and we will see a few more of those. A quiet market, and equity lift but bonds are quiet. Oil has been a challenge, brent crude at 29 20, 19. Francine i need to look at some of the earnings. Hsbc slipping after adjusted profit slumped. They also cautioned bad loan charges. Santander air is fluctuating and novartis up after maintaining its profit forecast. That is giving european stocks a lift, some 1. 5 . Crude oil 12 a barrel and dollar declining. Tom thank you so much. I believe i heard he has been known as the most interesting man in the allocation world, russ costa rich just a rich rush Russ Koesterich. We have heard all sorts of tones from bed lately or ben laidlers optimism and gloom. Halffull or halfempty . You are going to tell me it is halffull. Russ i am going to tell you it is halffull and the keyword is half. The market has moved quite a bit and that counts off the bottom in march was justified. At that point, we didnt know what the policy response was. People were justifiably afraid of a worse case scenario, which thankfully it looks that we will avoid. The challenge that will become harder from here is we do not know what the future looks like. It is hard for companies to provide guidance and to know what the postcrisis world looks like. Tom ben laidler says dont look at the earnings, look at credit spreads. That is the russ kester is world Russ Koesterich twirled. World. Russ the credit is supporting the market. You have had the fed and other Central Banks expand their qe well beyond what we saw last decade. In march, you had fears about solvency and unprecedented issues of liquidity. The spreads have come in that has helped justify the stabilization of multiples. One thing investors have going is in some asset, even credit, you are investing alongside the fed. Do you worry about a financial crisis, or are we beyond that to mark beyond that . Russ i wish we were beyond it. We dont know how the economy comes out of this or how severe a second wave is likely to be. We dont know the economic devastation on small and mediumsize businesses. I am much more sanguine that in the mediumterm we passed below butthat is past the low if you think of Long Duration asked let assets, you have to acknowledge uncertainty and the world will look different than it does. That will exacerbate the headwinds and other segments in other segments. Look at energy. Francine what is happening in energy and what are the unintended consequences . Could we see wti fluctuating negative and what does it mean for Asset Classes . Wti, oncegy and with you get past the intricacies of the oil and futures market, you cant bring down supply nearly as fast as demand has collapsed, and assuming demand is down 20 billion to 30 billion barrels a day, that is a different world than we had two months ago. You are seeing capacity issues in the u. S. That has exacerbated the problem. That is why we are seeing negative levels, be the because people cannot store it. The Energy Industry was challenged before it and that is reminiscent of a number of industries that came into the crisis with headwinds, with structural challenges. What will the world look like in two years, Energy Consumption is probably more modest, probably a world where more people are shopping online, and that will help certain parts of the market. That is why tech and Communication Services have done as well as they have, but it is a challenge for other parts of the market. Tom Russ Koesterichs with us, lots to talk about. We thank our london team for that moment of silence with the prime minister. Michael roman makes a lot of things for the Minnesota Mining and manufacturing company. This is the tape i used to tape my microphone into my coat and it says scotch tape. Look for the conversation with the 3m ceo. Good morning. Bloombergthis is surveillance, tom and francine from london and new york. We were having a conversation with Russ Koesterich, who is still with us. We are talking about deflationary pressures from the price of oil, of what kind of symptomatic concerns looking at oil translates into the overall economy. There are a number of loans and guarantees by states to companies around the world. When did we find out if these work . Is there anything you worry could be systemic . Russ a couple of things, the first of which is we came into this crisis in some ways better than we did in 2007 and 2008. By and large, the Financial System was in much stronger shape. Not universally, but when you look at the u. S. Banks you would see an increase in capital. Leverage ratios are down considerably from where they were. Household debt was down. It has helped that you have seen this incredibly aggressive mood by the fed, a rapid expansion of their Balance Sheet to backstop certain Asset Classes. That does not mean there will not be solvency problems, but you have gone a long way from repair in the previous decade to stem some of the solvency issues you otherwise might have had. Francine are you also Keep Companies alive that shouldnt be, and when will we pay for that . Russ that is a fair question. I would worry as much about the opposite which is one part of the market where you see it is small and midcap companies, and smaller private businesses, this is a risk to the economy. You have a number of Small Businesses that would not run with the cash levels with liquidity to survive a prolonged shut down. When you think about the longterm damage to the economy, what will it look like after we exit the crisis on lockdown, one of the pain points is how well Small Businesses survive. Rebalance out of the faangs . If i rebalance out of the faangs i will get killed if they continue to advance. How does rebalance ework, given ,he crazies rebalancing work given the skewed s p 500 . Russ investors are caught in the middle, as you suggest. On the one hand you have mega cap rose stocks with extended valuations and formidable Business Models that are holding up better than the rest of the economy. I dont think you abandon those needs, you probably trim them. Whether you do that by selling or using derivative strategies, it makes sense to sell. There are parts of the market, we call it the neglected middle that are neither pure growth or value, that represent some good opportunities. I would be cautious about getting into the deep value, highly cyclical names that lead out of a recession. I dont think you will exit this recession in the fashion that you normally do, not even like in 2009. The vshaped recovery, it is highly unlikely we will get that inch is why to be cautious selling growth and buying highly levered names. Francine thank you so much, Russ Koesterich of blackrock joining us. Rubenstein speaks with the cargile chief executive about how the agricultural giant is managing in this unprecedented time. Refinancing about and what happened to the Agricultural Supply chain. This is bloomberg. Good morning, everyone, bloomberg surveillance. Let us pause in london and new york in this pandemic with all we do in economics, finance, and investment, to gossip in washington with our chief gossip correspondent Kevin Cirilli joining us. All the gossip of a washington focused on itself is this interesting relationship between this president and his party. Break for us right now the relationship of President Trump and his core diehard constituency with the rest of the republican experiment. Kevin in terms of the base, that is still firmly unified, but there is an interesting question that has emerged about the president s relationship with senior republican donors, especially for down ballot races and senate races in november. That is where a lot of uneasiness is existing, not just on the right on the left covid19 has thrown a plethora of questions in terms of how it will play for senators up for reelection, and house members as well. Eom someone like greg valllier are parsing. I dont want to do the parlor game, but what is the example of Marco Rubiowith a of florida . Is rubio perceived as a trump supporter or is he outside that orbit . Kevin senator rubio and his staffers would say they support the president and his policies, however you are touching on something that has existed in florida politics. Florida is largely seen as a republican stronghold. And for ballot races the president ial election, however senator rubio has been aggressive in terms of more policy, and is probably more i akin to vice more president pence and to china. He is taking a much more aggressive approach for policy as it relates to china, and that is something you will hear more on. Yesterday i interviewed mike johnson, republican from louisiana. Thes the chairman of largest Republican Caucus at the house of representatives, and they released a handful of proposals and policy frameworks for reopening the economy, but a large portion of the china part of it is stepping from policy proposals from senator rubio. Francine how is President Trumps popularity doing now . At the dailyddress briefings that were disputed, that his popularity was going down. Russ his popularity has dipped kevin his popularity has biden,somewhat, and joe the likely democratic is edgingal candidate slightly above President Trump at the polls. The administration, the sources close to the administration will check in once things start to reopen. Tom Kevin Cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. To get away from the blur of the news and talk about the philosophy of the democrats and the republicans. To look at the markets with a lift in the equity market, bonds quiet. Really into all of that centralbank news, and you are looking for earnings guiding on tech companies. Difficult, wti jostled by the contracts and brent crude having a difficult day, spending a good deal of time below 20 a barrel. Coming up, and exceptionally important interview with Glenn Hubbard on supplyside forward. This is bloomberg. Everyone. Morning, this is bloomberg surveillance, from london and new york. Glenn hubbard is the definitive and most articulate person in economics about the american business. And something associated with supplyside economics. Without question, the most articulate purveyor about a not to ms. Him about about an optimism of business in america. I have been dying to talk to you. You have been wonderful about the certitude that so many people on the supplyside have and pushed against many who think these are simple solutions. We have the new complexity of trillions and trillions of dollars of new debt for our grandchildren. How do you dovetail the two . How do you do supply size economics among this debt . Glenn right now we have a pandemic and we have to fight it much like we would fight a war, so borrowing to cushion during this period will be important. Going forward, we have to think about how to restart the economy and should be incentivizing people to get back to work. Tom lets take the dynamism of ned phelps combined with Joe Stieglitz appalling view of our added with all the theoretical mixes we have, what is the hubbard prescription after the pandemic to right side our debt and deficit . Glenn even after restart reopening, we will still have to provide support to the economy, to businesses, Small Businesses in particular, and workers, and the fed will have to be present. Unwinding things requires a look at our nations priorities. Do we want to spend so much on social Insurance Programs when we need to train workers and get back to work . Francine how do you know it is safe going back to work . What are the social distancing rules you would put into place to protect lives . Glenn i think reopening will be gradual. It is not like a light switch and will probably vary across areas of the country by age and by testing. We are doing institute insufficient testing and it makes reopening hard. Any good reopening regime requires that. Francine testing what . This is one of the conundrums that European Countries are facing. Do you test for antibodies and is there a danger that you reopen too quick week and have to go into full quickly and have to go into full lock down, instead of slowly opening . Glenn i think slowly is a good word but waiting for after the too much forin is the country. A vaccine is obviously some time away, but for drugs that could bring down some of the tail outcomes of going to the hospital and being intubated and on ventilators, those will be important. I would be surprised if we do not start reopening gradually over the summer in most of the country. Tom so much of the messaging of the republican economics has been leave business to itself, and yet at the same time there is an overlay of europe becoming fiedn if id japani and the United States starting to act like a zombie of japan. Fear that withat this debt expansion, we have a tinge of what we have seen in japan . Glenn right now, no. The intervention is absolutely needed to write the economy ship. When you get hit with a blow you have to take the economy off life support sometime. The government will need to unwind it support. That is when japanification could set in. Tom dr. Hubbard, just not enough time today. Look for the writings of gran Glenn Hubbard from the American Enterprise institute. Grievously concerned about the debt expansion and productivity of america is a former chairman of the fed, Alan Greenspan, and conversation with david westin later today. Look for that. This is bloomberg. We have a situation where we have excess supply. Cushing is 70 fall. Inc will be completely full may. Home, butd to have a not everyone is that fortunate. What is happening is a simple case of supply and demand in the market will not find some stability until that comes back into balance. Francine that was the bp chief executive Bernard Looney speaking on bloomberg. To talk about oil, what moves we have seen and what comes next is amrita sen. Thank you for joining us. We were lower and then quite a lot lower in the last 24 hours, and oil will be stabilizing a little bit. Is this the kind of move we will see until oil finds a floor, and when is that . Amrita i think the big moves have been driven by the very nature of what we have been talking about the fast few weeks. We will run out of desperately needed space in parts of the world, and we have seen that with wti when it went negative. We think we are pretty much at the end of that process. We are going to be hitting the tops in coming weeks but that is well known, and we are trading june contracts. The supply that is kickstarting right now is overtaking demand appliance and we will restart the balancing rebouncing process rebalancing process. Francine is there any Storage Capacity left anywhere . Amrita there is some. Just for logistical region and on specific products, the u. S. Is filling up and in the next couple of months it will be very full. There will be a lag between oil arriving and storage, but a lot of these have been leased out already. Europe is the same. There is a little space in china and that is where you are seeing a lot of crude headed. It is small in the grand scheme of things. We are expecting a billion dollars of growth in the first half of this year. Tom i want to get away from microeconomics and go to word global and political macro. Unacceptable to too many Oil Producers and it must be incredible to price up from 10 and 15. How do they do that . Amrita i couldnt agree more. This has to be left to the markets to get back out, and it is doing so. We are seeing supply dropping everywhere in the world. Canada tom it looks like we have got a technical difficulty with m read sn. Amrita sen. It is extraordinary for interview after interview with all types of oil, it is unacceptable for these countries to have oil at 20 a barrel. It is unacceptable, but if you look at some of the commitments that we heard, not just from opecplus but from that monday when contracts went negative, we had a pledge by the g20 and day in and day out we ask, what is the rest of the world going to do . If they come together, something could be done. One of our most interesting conversations was with a chief executive of a Big Oil Company who said we need 30 Million Barrels off the table now. Interesting that saudi arabia started doing production cuts sooner than expected. Lott of focus is on oil, a on the banks, and a lot on the pandemic, whether we are close to finding a medicine that can fight covid19 or a vaccine. Tom i am glad you bring this up, because with the far better news of the curves bending on the coronavirus, there are still some slopes that are not good including california, and brazil is problematic. Here is viviana hurtado. Viviana we begin with the coronavirus, a blueprint to increase testing released by the white house. The strategy leaves it up to the states to develop their own plans. Officialslocal insisting widespread testing is the key to ending stayathome orders that have crippled the economy. Say thets in china coronavirus cannot be eradicated and expect it to return in waves. But coronavirus can be spread undetected because it affects some people without causing obvious symptoms. In new york state, it is investigating amazons Safety Practices during the coronavirus outbreak after they fired the leader of a warehouse walk out a group of employees demanded amazon close Staten Island facility for extensive cleaning. President trump says he knows how kim jongun is doing and south korea knows where he is, but neither are giving details. President trump says he cannot talk about it now and adds, i just wish him well. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am viviana hurtado. This is bloomberg. Francine thank you so much. Lets go back to m read sn. Amrita sen. We were talking about the when we with oil and are back to normal, it will take a long time to clear the oil markets. Thatare we talking about oil will progress in terms of price . Amrita in terms of finding a bottom, i think we are pretty much there. Days shouldple of be finding a bottom and then we for a while, for months. 10 will notup in be soon, and producers are doing what they can. Net downturn so they cannot do a lot the good news is demand should be the worst month for demand. We are coming out of april. Supply will be down 10 to 15 Million Barrels a day and demand will be 15 barrels a day. Tom how long can oil stay on the tankers sprinkled everywhere . Can they sit for a year, two years, three years full of oil . Amrita a couple of years and it gets difficult. There will be technical difficulties on quality. We have done this before and have had sanctions in a ron, iran and they had crude floating for over a year. Just over a year should not be a problem and that is the timeframe you are looking at, about an 18 month timeframe for getting these down. It will take that much time. Tom thank you so much for being with us. She is outstanding on the dynamics of oil. There is the dynamics of value, it has been brutal. The dynamics of the e. U. Banking system has been brutal. That means a conversation with david herro is timely, on deutsche bank, on credit suisse, bnp paribas. Look for him. Viviana i am viviana hurtado. A warning from nissan. ,hey expect to take a loss blaming the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Nissan is delaying its Earnings Report until may 28. Before the virus, the company was struggling with plunging sales. Next month, apple plans to reopen many Retail Stores after closing all locations outside of china due to the coronavirus. Deirdre obrien did not specify which stores in which regions would reopen. She previously told employees stores in the u. S. Would resume operations in may. Jcpenney is testing whether private credit could be a source of funds. It is in the negotiations with banks for potentially a bankruptcy loan but banks are concerned about taking on more exposure. That is your Bloomberg Business flash. Francine bloomberg has a unique partnership with Johns Hopkins, one of the leading universities trying to understand covid19, the consequences, but measuring the data and the impact. We have a daily impact from Johns Hopkins university and joining us is neysa ernst, nurse manager. Thank you very much. When you look at some of the concerns people have on the ground, i guess it is testing. Are there enough tests in the u. S. And are they being administered correctly . Neysa that is a really good question. Myting is not necessarily area of expertise because there are so many different tests. There has been a tremendous response throughout our Health System as well as many other Health Systems to get out and aggressively test the community, and follow some of the ideas we have learned from other areas of the world that have been tackling coronavirus. Francine there have been a number of reports about ventilators, the use of ventilators, whether they are good or not. What has come up in europe is because there is a shortage of frontline medical workers, you are retraining others to do difficult procedures at times. How is that going . Neysa that is very interesting. It is actually going very well. It was very difficult in the beginning. The profession of medicine is and nottocolized necessarily agile, so you would have to change your skill set and mindset to provide the safest, highest quality patient care. We have what we call kroening teams proning teams. Ing which is an important position to get patients more oxygenation, by proning them early and often, we reduce the use of ventilators. Tom good morning, tom keene in new york. Thank you for being with us. You are one of the rarest things out there, out in the real world doing terrible jobs and finally got a good job in nursing. I want you to talk about the nursing profession now. How are nurses as an industry going to come out of this pandemic . They have got to be changed after what we all observed. Where will nursing be in two years, five years, 10 years . Neysa that is a great question, and i was thinking about that driving in. I have a business background and came into nursing as a second career. Nurses will take a very different role, two years, five years, 10 years down. Nursing is silent work. Nobody really knows what we do and i think this pandemic has showed the world what we do and what we do well. Nurses are innovative and creative, and good at maintaining high Quality Patient Safety standards. Tom when does that get specked within the system, not only talking about nursing folks but the interns and the residents and the people in the trenches. Are they the last ones to get paid . When does that change . Neysa i cannot answer the pay question. Speaking specifically for hopkins, one thing hopkins has done is recognize and honor every employee in this organization who comes in every day to provide some sort of care, either direct or indirect patient care. One of the other things this pandemic has shown us is that, we are a big institution. We are no different from a lot of big health institutions. We are big and lumbering and take a long time to make a decision. There are people at the frontline who make excellent decisions in a very short period of time, and make a huge difference in a patients outcome. Tom neysa ernst with Johns Hopkins school of nursing, just wonderful to have her on and the others we have spoken to around the world on this pandemic. I want to give you the data off of this cool thing, better than the terminal. Futures up 32. The real news here is the vix with a vengeance, two days in a row coming in at a 36, 37, 38 32. 6e, we are down to a with a 31 handle earlier. It as come in, i will call jumble in the yield space. Oil brunt front and center. West texas intermediate, and 11 handle, really difficult. Coming up in the 12 00 hour or 1 00 hour, Alan Greenspan in conversation. This is bloomberg. There are times when our need to connect really matters. To keep customers and employees in the know. To keep business moving. Comcast business is prepared for times like these. Powered by the nations largest gigspeed network. To help give you the speed, reliability, and security you need. Tools to manage your business from any device, anywhere. And a team of experts here for you 24 7. Weve always believed in the power of working together. Thats why, when every connection counts. You can count on us. Alix oil chaos. Prices flirting with Single Digits while bps ceo says the worst of the virus driven crisis is yet to come. European bank risk. Loss could hitit 11 billion this year. Look through earnings. Goldmans has u. S. Stocks could look past bad news as companies report. Industrial and tech heavyweights on deck. Welcome to bloomberg daybreak on this tuesday, april 28. Im alix steel. Take a look at us and be futures. We are right around the house of the session. Potentially part of that as they weaker dollar. The dxy dropping like a stone in the market. Yields pretty much go nowhere. Oil very volatile as well. You have indices and etfs suspending buying spot month contracts, so they are rolling over, creating a reay r
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