Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia 20240713 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Asia July 13, 2024

A couple of days on the holiday and we are seeing assets catching down, what weve been seeing most of this week. The csi 300 down. 6 . A lot of focus has been on the renminbi. Fixed slightly stronger, but marginally. Perhaps it has limited the volatility. Weve seen implied vol spike for the offshore renminbi. We are seeing a bit of spread between the onshore and offshore. The onshore at 7. 0 632. We are watching hong kong as we slowly return back to normal. Weve heard from carrie lam that they will open gyms, theaters, massage parlors. 123 in hang seng, up points. U. S. Futures, still heading lower and nifty futures. We will see it seems more troubled when it comes to the indian reopened. And theylot of brawls are slapping a huge tax on liquor sales too. Tom lets get more on the Market Action with Mark Cranfield in singapore. The question of the day on the mliv is how important is trade for these assets . 10 investors look past the tensions between beijing and washington . Maher it will be a major question for the next few months as we ramp up the running toward the u. S. Elections. I dont think anybody will be surprised if china becomes a hot button issue for the people in the United States. Of course, it has ramifications for assets around the world. China hasady seen used quite Strong Language to push back against the claims that they started the pandemic in the wrong country. One ofa markets reopen, the places that people will certainly be looking is the dollar yuan exchange rate, chinese equities, and anywhere we have seen higher volatility in the past, so certainly how these assets respond over the next weeks and months is going to be important for Global Markets, and if donald trump does pursue this line, he has theed topix tariffs ultimate punishment against china and it would bring a lot of unexpected shocks to markets which were dealing with the downturn to global growth. It seems the reopening in china is different from what we saw post Chinese New Year where we saw assets actually catch quite down significantly to what we are seeing now. When it comes to renminbi, what are some levels you are watching right now . It seems at this point, most analysts i read say we will not see a huge depreciation. Mark certainly this level of 7. 2 for the dollar against the one has been a focus point for everybody. We got really close to but not long ago and certainly china will probably trying to be trying to make sure the market doesnt get excited about this breaking anytime soon. The fixing today was well below the level the offshore yuan was trading, even though we saw the offshore yuan trade to about 7. 14 when china was closed for its holiday. Quite a disparity between the two and the pboc is trying to rain back in Market Expectations and you will probably see this over the next few days. Fixings,fictions they will try to calm everybody down. What they really avoid at the moment is the market getting excited and china responding with their currency when there is a disconnect between the two countries on the political level. Of course, if the United States actually pursued additional tariffs, the whole picture could change because we did see in 2018 the yuan we can significantly weake when the u. S. Went ahead with moren tariffs. That is something we should watch if the u. S. Wants to add more pain against china. Tom a weaker dollar would presumably be helpful. Weve heard from fed officials in the last 24 hours warning of the Economic Impact getting worse. Does that suggest to you that the fed is prepared to do more . I think the fed have made it quite clear they are not finished. If they have to do more, they can come back. They could increase their bond buying, they could do more measures in terms of helping specific areas of the u. S. Economy. Weve seen this lending to small businesses. Of can find other sectors the u. S. Economy they can lend to directly. They are certainly going to use this expression, whatever it takes. Every central bank in the world seems to be working from the same playbook, fed included. They are all trying to protect their economies, make sure liquidity is plentiful and support asset prices as much as they can because the last thing they need as economies are slowly trying to get back on track, they dont need Financial Markets to be making it worse by having the huge volatility we saw in march. Certainly there is the net result that could be a slight shift out of dollar assets to andr parts of the world, that slight blunting of the Dollar Strength would be good for emerging markets and china would probably benefit, as well. Yvonne all right, that was our mliv Mark Cranfield with his analysis. You can follow more on this story on the markets live blog that is on the bloomberg at mliv. Get the run down in one click and there is commentary, analysis from mark and his expert editors. You can find out what is affecting your investments right now. Lets get to the first word news. U. S. China relations sour over blame for the coronavirus, with beijing turning its fury on President Trumps top diplomat after the white house repeated the infection came from a lab in wuhan, chinese and media unleashed a torrent of criticism on mike pompeo, calling him evil and a liar, and rejected his claims of enormous evidence connecting the virus to a wuhan lab. Malaysia cut its key rate by 50 basis points, the most since 2009. The bank slashed the overnight rate to 2 , saying the outlook remains gloomy. Indonesian growth slowed sharply in the First Quarter, the weakest showing since 2001. An heavier toll is expected in coming months. A new report says indias virus ofs lockdown saw the loss 120 million jobs last month alone. Tom the u. K. Has become the most seriously affected Company Country in europe as far as debt, surpassing italy with 30,000 confirmed fatalities. More pressure on the johnson government, with critics saying he has been slow to respond to the pandemic. The Prime Minister ordered a locked down much later than other European Countries and was slow to begin testing in the early stages of the outbreak. The white house is discussing shutting down the Coronavirus Task force possibly as soon as this month, with Vice President mike pence saying it has achieved its goals. Slowed the u. S. Has spread of infections and the administration is confident it can meet demands for medical resources in the future. He added any decision on the task force would be based on conditions at the time. Next, hong kong is inching toward normalcy with the move to reopen schools and bars, but signs of protests returning may spoil investor sentiment. The former Hong Kong Exchange chairman gives his outlook for the city. This is bloomberg. Yvonne hong kong leader carrie shutteredto reopen schools. Fresh political battles over the future of the city. She raced the number of people allowed to gather from eight to eight from four and said theaters could open friday. We have a former Hong Kong Exchange chairman who led carrie lams Campaign Team in 2017. Always great to have you. It seems the city is but surely getting back to normal. What do you think the new normal looks like and can the economy get back on track . Ronald i think there is a lot , but i thinkround it is going to be a steep climb, particularly when you look at , almostment rates among 50 of the workforce is employed by the smes, so it will be a it might take the better part of 12 months, 18 months, and hopefully the virus doesnt come back in the meantime. Do you think the government is doing enough for those smes . This is a state that doesnt have bankruptcy protection. Which seen some stimulus come into the fray, granting 80,000 for some retailers out there to keep businesses afloat. Do you think it is enough . I think almost 35 billion u. S. Dollar package the government put out has not fully found its way into the economy yet, but as you have secretary finance if thatn has indicated is not enough, they are prepared to come out with more so lets hope we dont need it, but the government, i think, so far has done a good job both in terms of release to the economy as well as controlling the virus and keeping the numbers down. Hong kong people of course played a very Important Role and they had the experience in 2003 maskss, so wearing face and social distancing, washing hands and all of that, is probably ingrained into our dna. Tom it is tom in beijing. What do you think the prospects are of renewed protests and how would you expect the government to respond if people do start going back onto the streets on a regular basis . I think the protests really started last year out of the now abandoned extradition bill, and i think the whole democracy supporters and the politicians seem to have taken advantage of that, but i hope that at the end of the day, common sense will prevail in terms of getting back into the Legislative Council in september this year and really to work for the people. It is one thing fighting for democracy, but another thing if to jobs, economy, that would not be good for the ordinary folks in hong kong. Tom part of the tension is what many see as beijings overreach in hong kong and Beijings Liaison Office saying it isnt accountable to rule 22, preventing central governments from interfering in internal affairs. Is that a correct interpretation of the law . Is the Liaison Office corrects that they can get involved in the internal affairs of hong kong . Ive not looked into it deeply. Speciality, ill put it that way. I think all of us remember from time to time, foreign governments like the u. K. Government or the u. S. Government have made their comments about hong kong, and if they can make comments, then why cant beijing make comments . I find this a bit surprising, seeing we are one china. Ron, speaking with michael the other day, when it comes to mainland tourists coming to hong kong, he is expecting half of what pleased to see. Chinese buyersf coming into the property market. Is this a symbol of hong kongs economic importance dwindling in the eyes of the mainland chinese . Ronald i dont think so. So, simply because if you look in the Global Financial Center Network and e zones, we are probably one of the most important Asian Financial hubs there is. Obviously play a big part, as well, but the japanese entry into the Global Financial network is largely domestic as opposed to International Like we are. Have lots of mainland companies, hong kong companies, as well, overseas Companies Listed on the Hong Kong Exchange, and in terms of that, we havel of over 170 foreign banks in hong kong. The list goes on. Yvonne what are you expecting when it comes to the september elections . What is in store now, do you think, ron . Ronald i think it will be tight. It could well be that the democrats might get a majority, a small majority or the proestablishment might. From what my friends are telling me, it is not a given the democrats would acquire a majority. At the end of the day, even if they do acquire a majority and they try to use all sorts of filibustering techniques to slow things down, they really still to do things like pass the budget, passed laws because that is their function. Their function is not to bring hong kong to a halt. That would be a terrible indictment on democracy. The government is discussing, there have been reports they are looking at reintroducing the National Securities law. Would they be right to do that and will you expect them to be successful if they go down that path . I dont think it will happen in this term because there are only two and half months left on the calendar. I dont imagine they would be able to do the right consultation within this timeframe, but i think under the postegislative council september 2020, they would have to dor almost two years it and that would be the right time to do it. Whether they can get the right numbers, to some extent depends on the election results. Are you concerned about weve been talking a lot about the tensions this reescalation of tensions between beijing and washington over the origins of the virus. Are you concerned that if we get to a situation where the Trump Administration is looking at reimposing tariffs, hong kong is again hit by that and it is another potential headwind for the city . , trade warsously dont do any good. Bute really are no winners, this is an Election Year in the u. S. And during the Election Year, sometimes strange things and unexpected things happen. I hope that common sense will prevail and if mr. Trump gets elected, there would be a new dialogue on the same front, as well as other issues. If a new administration comes in, mr. Biden, the democratic candidate knows china, knows Hong Kong Well and the u. S. China relations importance, so i am cautiously optimistic that postelection, there might be a firmer and clearer path for those two countries. Ron, thank you for your time, for taking time out to speak with us. We are loving the library, by the way. Hong konge former exchange chairman and one time carrie lam Campaign Manager ronald arculli,. This is bloomberg. Tom spotifys ceo is eyeing a slice of the 18 billion radio Advertising Market and spoke about apple opening its platform following in antitrust complaint with the eu. I think first and foremost, this is an ongoing complaint in the European Union at this point, so i cant talk too much about the specifics on this, but obviously longterm, we do expect apple to open up and we are very encouraged about being ase to now finally use siri a way of building invoice support and also being available to build products for apple tv and apple watch, something we havent been able to do until very recently, so i think it is moving in the right direction but we still have many steps to go before we consider this an open and fair platform. Apple has stopped releasing numbers for apple music. Do you think their growth has slowed, perhaps . Cant really speak to what the numbers are. As much asuld be your guests. What we have, and we have said this publicly before, we are two times the size of our nearest competitor, about three times seen engagement that our nearest competitor too and we think those two characteristics mean we should be growing faster. Emily are you surprised apple has not been invaded more in an industry that it dominated for so long . Daniel heres my take. We talk a lot about these Big Tech Companies and we talk a lot about how you can be very good at building these Great Companies come and they truly are phenomenal companies with amazing businesses, but i think there is something about focus. This is something that ive said a long time, that we are unique in the way we are focusing all of our time and attention on this one opportunity, and it is all about bringing audio on to the internet in a big way and moving it off of linear radio and physical formats. Thats what this whole company is focused on and that means thatone is as passionate our mission has a sure way of coming here. Passionate about music, audio, spotify should be the company you want to join. Except, outlook for bonds. This is bloomberg. 10 29 in hong kong and shanghai, 10 29 p. M. In new york. Unemployment rose in new zealand and wage growth slowed in the First Quarter as the covid19 pandemic pushed the economy toward recession. 2. 4ess claims rose to percent, below forecasts. New zealand is bracing for a recession and surging unemployment is a nationwide lockdown force businesses to make workers redundant. Is weighing aank german courts ruling on the Purchase Program and if it is in law. With eu click the bank has three months to respond. It will not stop the Program Immediately and it will not to combat the fallout but it raises questions over how far the ecb can push its monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, the venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro has shown evidence he claims proves american mercenaries have tried to launch a coup. He said u. S. Citizens have been and blamed washington for trying to topple him by force. He blamed the u. S. Although the Trump Administration did not denies involvement and a new report from the International Energy agency says irans Missile Program received record expections last year inspections last year amid increasing criticisms from werengton the inspectors able to verify commitments under the 2015 deal the u. S. Had abandoned. The Trump Administration has imposed stronger sanctions on iran. Global news 24 hours a day, onair and online on quicktake and twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120. Ountries im Karina Mitchell. This is bloomberg. At markets,ing particularly southeast asia, a mixed bag across the region. Chinese markets are heading slightly lower at the reopened, but we are seeing decent gains in singapore, up close to 1 . A bit of pressure after we saw a rebound yesterday. Several things we are watchi

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