Headline, governor bailey with a negative two year yield. Francine there will be no money for my kid because as soon as i can, i will be spending it on childcare. I asked him whether negative rates was something he would consider. The change in tone between him and his predecessor is stark. Governor carney always saying absolutely not negative rates for this country. Andrew bailey who has been in charge for about two months, kept the door opened, saying probably not now but because of the severity of what we are facing he will not rule anything out. There is a change in tone on what they can and cannot do. Seeinge changes we are from tuesday into this wednesday, chairman powell with adam posen and the Pearson Institute at the Virtual Conference today, that will galvanize global wall street. Jack ablin here with us in a moment. Here is ritika gupta. Ritika we are waiting to see if Jerome Powell gives anything up about what he will do next. He may call for congress to do more to combat the possibility of mass bankruptcies and longlasting and a lack of enthusiasm for negative rate. Administrations shrugging off comments that we prevailed. Infectious disease chief anthony found she warned communitiesned that outbreaksger of new and denied he has a confrontational relationship with President Trump. The british economy is plunging into what bay what may be the deepest recession in three centuries. It was down 2 for the quarter and things are expected to get worse this quarter. The bank of england is forecasting a 25 contraction. Amazons delivery time is becoming normal. A list of restrictions on the amount of inventory supplies that can be sent to amazon warehouses. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Much, greatly so appreciate it. Bonds, currencies, commodities, lift to the market with a little bit of churn. Resilient dollar, and the tone in foreignexchange as we had the great conversation with adam cole in the last hour. The brazilian real is a mess. I am watching one of the great global litmus papers, the swiss franc, its own original idea but the idea of ever stronger grinding strength to the swiss franc is worth watching. Francine what i am looking at is european stocks that are declining but less than a couple of minutes ago. There does seem to be a bit of a shift at the markets and some of the risk off mood. Treasuries rising, oil futures slipping. The market is watching jay powell in the hope that they offer fresh clues, that he ohfers offers fresh clues when he speaks today. The dollar steady versus its peers. Tom we have the perfect just now just to summarize guest to summarize the changing died tides reflected in the data. You can fold in the whispers of disinflation and deflation in the backdrop, to be blunt, yesterday was not a good day for the mathematics of this pandemic. Jack ablin is from chicago and joins us now. We are grinding down the discount rate, grinding down the actuarial assumption. How close are we to the zero bound of our pension . How close are we to the zero bound where all that math does not work . Jack it is confounding. When you look at the possibility of negative rates here at home, i have trusted the fed in their pledge to avoid negative rates. The thing about negative rates that always puzzled me was, foreign entity that is trying to guard against runs on the bank, one key ingredient to runs on the bank is negative rates at the bank. Knowing that you could earn at least zero with a pile of cash under your mattress. Tom i look at this, and it comes back to the market telling people what to do. , awe go back to decades younger mr. Soros told the silver market what to do. Is there no power in the market to tell chairman powell what to do . Jack yeah, i think there is. Late, the late 2008 gaffe in raising rates and the market piled on top of him, he is certainly flexible and willing to respond to market forces. , we seearket forces negative rates hitting the u. K. And other parts of the world. Thinkime i checked, i that negative total was well over 17 trillion. It is entirely possible he could cave and deliver negative rates here at home. Francine what does that mean for treasuries and for the markets overall . That that it means is is going to, depending on where inflation or Inflation Expectations stay, assuming they are going to negative rates as a form of financial repression, the argument there is it will push investors out into riskier assets. But we have to weigh those riskier assets against this huge uncertainty of the economic reopening. Just is just what i wrote about was this really fine balance of risks in economic reopening. We saw in georgia they reopened and now they are seeing caseloads increase by 40 . On the other hand, we could open an economy, a local regional economy and nobody goes out. Is just a very difficult environment in which to navigate, and we got a sense of that yesterday afternoon. Hadppeared that l. A. Delayed their opening at around 3 30 new york time, just at about the time the market turned south. Jack, do we see a recovery . Are you worried more about the deep this of this crisis deepness of this crisis or the patching this of the recovery . Jack the patching this of the recovery patchiness of the recovery. The stock market has essentially turned into the bond market. The bond market is a binary investment decision. To vehicle is either going pay off or it isnt, and that is what a lot of Equity Investors are now viewing equities. ,t is not necessarily degrees it is will this issue make it to the other side of the coronavirus gulch . Depth me, yes, it is the but also the linking time length in time that we are at this lower potential rate. Correctionveillance , my brain was frosty with the beautiful new york weather. I was looking at silver and i mentioned the younger george soros but anyone would know i meant the Kansas City Chiefs and the hunt others as well in the brothers as well in the 1980s. I love your idea of the bond market and the equity markets becoming one in the same. How long is lower for longer now . We are seeing Carl Riccadonna frame out 2021 out to 2022. What is the jack ablin shortterm, one year or five years . Conservatively two years. This is where i took comfort in the math. Assume thecompany, stock price is the discounted present value of its future cash flows, and you take a reasonably growing company, growing its around 4 ,or ebitda and you lop off 2020 and 2020 szero and 20, to restart as if it was in a. You are looking at a decline of around 2 . I take comfort in knowing, the s p is down around that amount and not every company is we have to also pick out those that will survive versus those that 5 t, but i know that around of the s p is rated below investment grade. 1 is netflix. I couldnt think of a business more suited for the shutdown, so from the s p perspective, i think the valley right now is about right. Value right now is about right. , crescentjack ablin Wealth Advisors chief executive offer officer. Willg up, ian bremmer, we talk to him about u. S. China trade war, reopening the economy. This is blue. This is blue. Bloomberg. I think we ought to have a little bit of humility in our belief that we know what is best for the economy. As much as i respect you, i do not think you are the endall, the one person who gets to make a decision. We can listen to your advice but there are people on the other sides saying there is not a surge and we can reopen the economy. The poor and underprivileged kids who do not have a parent to teach them at home will not learn for a full year. We have to look at the swedish model. It is a huge mistake if we do not reopen the schools. I have never made myself out to be the endall. I give advice according to the best scientific evidence. There are a number of other people who come into that and give advice more related to the things you spoke about, about the need to get the country more open again economically. I do not give advice about economic things or advice on anything other than public health. Tom the ophthalmologist from Bowling Green lecturing the virologist from holy cross on medicine and pandemic of sweden. Words fail what we witnessed yesterday. There has been an uproar about this interview from our global audience and careful analysis of what sweden is doing on a regional basis versus the other scandinavian countries, and compared to the challenged nations of europe. Right now, never challenged her conversation on washington is our kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. Hillany people on capitol agree with the junior senator from kentucky . Kevin most republicans agree with senator paul, and it will be a much water discussion here. Broader discussion here. You hear that boiling over amongst conservatives as this drags on. , Speaker Pelosi unveiling a 3 trillion spending bill. I was told by a Senior Advisor to former Speaker Paul Ryan that is essentially going to be a messaging bill because republicans are in no way going to get on board. Tom i understand all this, but i would suggest the mathematics of our pandemic yesterday was challenging, to say the least, meso ins less slow the major less so in the major urban areas but more a spread across the nation. What are republicans hearing from their constituents . Kevin republicans would went to the model of the cities that have been hit either pandemic first, which would mean by the pandemic first, which would mean now it is strictly rural and their medical curve is behind the timeline of what the cities experienced. Secondly, i would point to this issue that any of the concerns from an educational standpoint, as senator paul pointed to, are the same concerns that the cities have, especially when it comes to underserved and underprivileged communities. Especially from an education perspective, and i spoke with just one local education official yesterday, from an education perspective, that is going to be those are real concerns about the Technology Differences and whatnot, from a very young age. Dramatic kids at a disadvantage. Tom i cannot convey enough how yesterday in new york city, this is the tone. Central park is getting far more crowded and last night, just as a vignette, an Ice Cream Truck showed up for the first time in ages, if not this season, and the crowd was extraordinary. Francine i hear you talk about new york and i think you are talking about london. The parallels in the u. K. , and the beginning we had scientific advisors saying people will be set up with the lockdown and they were trying to tie it down. It is definitely something that could be set across countries. How does this play out into the election . How is the president doing in terms of polling . He has gone around the country continuing his campaign. Andn according to polls, several have come out, in wisconsin he is trailing former Vice President joe biden by three percentage points. Michigan, pennsylvania, arizona polls, he is trailing single digits, not dramatically, but trailing joe biden who has not done all that much in terms of campaigning. He has been himself. His campaign is pushing out messages, and i asked that question to a prominent republican strategist yesterday. Democrats wille continue to make this election a referendum on President Trump. View a lackreally of rallies as a necessity for their campaign strategy. Francine how will people judge the president s response . I feel like sometimes i am repeating myself, but our people more worried about the economy and their wages or the number of people ending up in hospital . In the short term, there is an understanding that republicans and democrats, for the 2020 election, americans are focused on their day to day lives. Has been suggest this a polarizing issue in terms of support for the president or criticism of the president. One demographic that republicans have their eye on his senior citizens. They have declining support for President Trump for a variety of reasons according to political experts. They have been especially hit hard in terms of how the pandemic has played out, and that support has drifted away from President Trump. Tom kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. Later today after chairman powell and the market flow, a conversation with the attorney general of the conversation commonwealth of massachusetts, mori healy. Maura healy. Everyone,morning, bloomberg surveillance. The vix in two points, a big vacillation. 31 on the vix in 2. 11 points. Up 19, dow futures up 174. Later today, David Rubenstein with the gentleman from google, eric schmidt. This is bloomberg. These days staying connected is more important than ever. So were working 24 7 to maintain a reliable network, to meet your growing internet needs. Were helping customers who are experiencing Financial Difficulties stay connected. Were increasing internet speeds for low income families in our internet essentials program. And delivering selfinstall kits to your door. Nos comprometemos a mantenerte conectado. Were committed to keeping you connected. For more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity. Com prepare. Surveillance, good morning, everyone. We are grateful every day when jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, shocked by our own family stories, people bouncing off the wall. It has been wildly reported, it is a dogs world. There is literally a dog shortage in new york city and everyone is trying to be like ian bremmer. Joining us is the star of , who has brought along aboutn bremmer to talk financial relations. He is the only winner of the pandemic, that is pretty clear. Tom what has it meant for the bremmer family to have moose with you every day . Ian it is awesome until there squ and i cannot say that out because he will go bat [beep]. It makes live tv more interesting. Tom i want to go up secure on brazil, it is a mess. Times doing huge treatment from the mexican border, latin america, south america, and this pandemic. The Eurasia Group does a study of rizzo. Brazil. How fragile is rizzo . Brazil . Ian i ran a question on twitter, who is to run your country, who do you pick, bolsonaro lost the paul badly with about 9 . Badly with about 9 . Not only did he fire his wellrespected minister of health and has been promoting fake news about the coronavirus, he had his videos stop midstream by instagram and had tweets taken down by twitter. Typeave to have alex jones material to get that done. Wellrespected minister of justice and the scandal over time could lead to his impeachment. He has managed to get everything wrong while the caseload and death toll in brazil is increasing dramatically. Moose does not appreciate that. [dog growling] tom let me bring in my colleague, francine i believe is dog free but there is a rumor there will be a dog at the house. Francine if the kids are watching us now, they will ask for one tonight. We look at the economy and how ideally you open an economy while minimizing the infections and deaths. Is there anything else you worry about . Does the whole Society Change because there is a pivot to asia because they have come out of this quicker and in europe there is a lack of solidarity . Ian there is so many pieces to worry about. Andis the globalization what happens to efficient supply chains. We will pay more to have a level of resilience and when the pandemic is in the rearview mirror, that will reduce. In addition to that, you also have issues of the United States versus china and the fact that as you start bailing out american industry, you want those companies to put capital and jobs back in the u. S. You will see a linkage to the number of american allies. China will be completely dominant with the poorer companies. 80 of external debt is held by china. Soon it will be all of their tech and data and you will see the poorer countries, Southeast Asia and south america, some of east and Southern Europe will be oriented more towards the chinese. We have been living in this world where globalization is driving goods and Services Faster and faster. We will be moving in a world that is much more fragmented and more costly to operate in, and more political dangers as a consequence. Tom lets come back with dr. Bremmer. Maybe we will be dog free. Up, but now our news in new york city. Ritika there is little chance the House Democrats relief package will be turned into law. It proposes aid to states and local stop governments, and more spending on unemployment and food stamps, but republicans are in no rush to negotiate. Passage in the house would give the democrats a marker for the election. Waiting for what Jerome Powell will have to say about negative Interest Rates and high unemployment. He is likely to call on congress for additional relief funds and may likely signal against cutting the benchmark rate below zero. Will be able to spend unlimited time outdoors, the Real Estate Market has reopened, and people working from home have been encouraged to go to their jobs. The judge in the case of former National Security advisor Michael Flynn is saying not so fast. The Justice Department wants to dismiss this case but Emmett Sullivan wants to hear what outsiders think. Plead had flynn had already pleaded guilty to fbi agent for lying to fbi agents. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I amro do could go. I am the. Riddick a group to. Ika gupta. Sachs, in theman 8 00 hour. Stay with us, futures higher. This is bloomberg. Everyone,morning, bloomberg surveillance your go bloomberg surveillance. Futures high. Richard haass has out a wonderful book called usurer of future of the world, and it reminded me of your book. What is the bremmer th