I was very impressed by that. Taylor i am taking a look at some of the individual sectors. I may need to do a correction. The utilities, some of the worst performers, and the industrials. If we were really thinking that this infrastructure plan could go through, they were up less than 2 , just mildly outperforming, but mostly right in line. Here in the green. We were having a discussion of a discussion about how cheap everyone else looks and if the u. S. Can command a premium given that there is more growth in this market. Romaine samantha is still with us. There are sort of a lot of crosscurrents here in this market. We talked about the idea of the market sort of being swung by concerns of a covid19 second wave. Of course, in the middle of all that, you have corporate profitability and earnings, still relatively opaque at this moment. What are some of the main things you are looking for that will give you some more clarity about how sustainable this rally is . Samantha i think we have to look at micro data. I am really thinking of companylevel balance sheets, companylevel statements. Not good enough to look at the broad s p from a higher level. Like you said, there is a major lack of clarity. We have to get to basics. For me, that is hearing it from ceos themselves, hearing it from managers. I am a really big lever that we have to kind of drill back down number look for quality whether it be on the balance sheet, the income side. The world is changing a lot and we do not have a lot of clarity on highlevel earnings. Taylor oracle coming out and saying that Fourth Quarter adjusted revenue is about 10. 4 billion, slightly missing expectations of about 10. 7 billion. Adjusted Cloud Services coming in at 6. 85 billion. We dont have an estimate of what analysts were looking for. Decent beat on the bottom line. Adjusted earningspershare of 1. 20. Again, adjusted operating margins look like they are up yearoveryear, about 49 . They are maintaining Quarterly Dividend here. We have heard a lot of these Companies May be stalling some share buybacks, trying to maintain dividends. Oracle really highlighting their Strong Performance in cloud infrastructure. Cloud has continued to save the day with margins and profitability. Looks like fourthquarter revenue just slightly beating what analysts were looking for. Caroline Interesting Times for ray Cloud Business and indeed business spending as well. Take as wer final start to get earnings. What about the u. S. Versus the rest of the world . Samantha we are bullish on the u. S. I think the u. S. Can command a valuation premium. I personally think it is hard to get excited about europe, just given some structural issues. I really think of the u. S. Commanding a premium and emerging asia, and that is a very exciting place, especially for clients that need growth in their portfolios. Caroline interesting headlines coming from oracle. Samantha, always great to have you with us. Of course, j. P. Morgan asset management. Whatd you miss . Is up next when will be speaking with the former nypd Police Commissioner on recent calls to socalled defund the police. This is bloomberg. Caroline from bloomberg World Headquarters in new york. Romaine this is whatd you miss . Caroline three days of gains in the s p 500. As risk onoint 9 trade is back. Ofnwhile, a reimagining local Law Enforcement. Protesters across the nation have been calling to defund the police in the wake of the Police Killing of george floyd. Speak with the former nypd commissioner bill bratton. Bitcoin has been failing to hold above 10,000. What can prove that the crypto sermons the cryptocurrency is a store of value. Those give us a look on retail Sales Numbers out today. Taylor it is what set the tone. The optimism continuing throughout the day. Take a look at this chart. Retail sales on a month over month basis jumping the most on record, after rate record drop in april, the previous month. In thee, i want to bring chief u. S. Economist at workplace. Im curious if some of this headline data gives you optimism that the consumer is back, they are spending and coming back with a vengeance . It is certainly clear that there is pentup demand. I think we have to take an optimistic signal from that. We have been obviously spending a lot of time thinking about where the confidence level of the household is. Suggested april data lost income had been replaced by a lot of government benefits through Unemployment Insurance and impact payments. The question was, would households spend that once the economy opened up. The answer to that as of now is yes. I do think it reflects pentup demand. The key looking forward, in my mind, is whether firms will hire back the temporarily unemployed people. If that happens, i would say we have a nice Virtuous Cycle in front of us. This is one month where there needs to be followthrough. We see thatn though rebound, there were a lot of folks who were fortunate, able to keep their jobs, keep their income, and they can resume spending to the level of before the pandemic. Did not haveks who the same paycheck they were used to. How do you track or balance that out to get a better sense of whether we can return that Consumer Spending trendline to something more comparable to what we had at the end of last year . Michael i think the answer to that is really in the employment numbers. Jobless claims have a lot of noise in them right now because of the processing of backlogs and so forth, but i really think it is about employment. As good as the retail sales data was, i would say the Industrial Production data was much more subdued and reflects apprehension from business about whether this strong improvement reflects just one month of pentup demand or more persistent influences. I think we have a reticent business sector and i think the intersection is employment. I dont think it is anything magical to follow other than will employment pick up in a way such that wage and salary income can support consumption rather than government benefits. I think we need a lot of hiring, something between 8 million and 10 million jobs rehired in order to continue this absent further fiscal stimulus. Inoline are you baking further fiscal stimulus, and what about arguments that it has some it has in some ways prevented people from going back to work . Michael we are still assuming that a phase four spending package is coming. We still think, by the second half of july, something in the 500 billion to 750 billion range is still likely to be forthcoming. While this is still very good news, i think there is a strong argument that there will still be many millions of americans unemployed at the end of july when some of these benefits payments run out. I think that will provide incentives for another package to come together. So, yes, we are assuming we get a fourth package. You worried that some of the extra benefits go away anticonsumer might not be as strong as we think it is now . Michael yes, i think what the recent eta has shown us is that you should have increased confidence about the nearterm cyclical recovery, the 34 months horizon. Where still in a period states are reopening, there is pentup demand, it does seem like the next several months should be fairly solid for me cyclical recovery perspective. Beyond that, i think there are still a number of questions. How strong is rehiring by then . How Many Americans are still unemployed . Do we get a phase four stimulus or not . There is a scenario where expiration of federal benefits payments means activity later in the year after a strong rebound in q3. None of that is preordained. I would say that is the next concern. We are now trying to assess the strength of the carryforward. Yes, i think that is of great concern for our outlook and i think the outlook of most economists right now. Romaine the Housing Market, we have seen some enthusiasm with some of the homebuilding stocks. The idea with Interest Rates being so low and the Housing Market sort of catering to a cadre of people who maybe were not as effected by the covid19 recession, that this is an area that a lot of people can depend on. What are your thoughts on that . Michael i would agree with that. I look at it a little bit differently but i think the overall positive assessment is correct. Normally, housing is procyclical and after an expansion, we would have a lot of overbuilding. Prices would be elevated, inventory levels would be elevated. A crash like covid would tumble the sector over. We think housing is in a very different position. Home price appreciation still very much in line with growth and disposable income. Inventory of new and existing homes were generally at alltime lows. I think that housing can recover more quickly and is one of those vshaped sectors of the economy. Andree with that sentiment there is a market index today bouncing up to 58, which is a sign that homebuilders agree. Caroline i want insight into how your thinking at barclays of doing. Moment, we are hearing e from the fed, jay powell ever more obvious when we look at the numbers when it comes to unemployment, different demographics, different parts of the community. We heard jay powell saying everybody deserves an opportunity to participate fully in our society and economy. How do you worry about the inequality being perpetuated by the downturn we are seeing . Michael i would approach that from a political economy perspective which would generally say that the stability of our economic system, the combination of democracy and capitalism, is dependent on the benefits being shared broadly. The stability of the system is dependent on that. If there are large parts of the population that do not feel like they are sharing in an equal fashion, whether through opportunity or income generated from that, then the stability of the system is at risk. From thatit perspective in terms of stability of the system and whether or not all americans can participate equally and have equal opportunity. Think generates Better Outcomes over time. If they feel they are shut outcome of the stability in the system both politically and economically goes down. Romaine thank you for participating, chief economist at barclays. Coming up, President Trump signing an executive order relating to police reform. The u. S. Senate expected to take up a bill later this week. William bratton, nypd Police Commissioner as well as commissioner in boston and l. A. Couple will give us his thoughts. This is bloomberg. Is bloomberg. Romaine will come back. After years of debate, legislative effort to debate what Law Enforcement should be has accelerated in the three weeks following the killing of george floyd. Our next guest is one of the most wellknown figures in policing, credited for procedures in the 90s that lowered the crime rate. Bill bratton was commissioner in new york, los angeles, and boston. Thank you for being here today. We started off today with the president of the United States signing an executive order that largely centers around changing some of the credentialing for federal funds going to local Law Enforcement. We have a bill working its way potentially through the senate that would also facilitate some changes at the local level for how we police. How receptive do you think local Police Chiefs will be to some of these federal efforts . Bill you left out the Third Initiative in the house of representatives. We have three what you would hope would be coordinated initiatives. The devil is in the details. What proposals are going to survive, what will be funded, how long will they take . I think most of what will be proposed, the president s initiative, the senate, and tomorrow comedy house, would be embraced by Police Chiefs tomorrow, the house, would be embraced by Police Chiefs. A National Screening system so that an officer discharge from one department for cause would not be hired by another department. Responders social trying to take some of the functions that have been dumped on the police over the last 30 years, the idea of having other individuals who are more highly trained to take on that responsibility, something that i would also support. At the same time, that will be extraordinarily costly and you will need a lot of them. Much of these resources something the government has failed to handle. A lot good stuff here. Again, the idea is what actually survives the review process of the funding process. This will also be competing with 50 governors all rushing to try and implement changes in their states, and the 18,000 mayors, city managers, who oversee the countrys 18,000 separate police forces. There is a lot of good stuff here. But lets see what happens with it. Caroline you talk about how costly this could be. The approach that you see, it is interesting, as your career was really on the trajectory efforts when you were with new york, l. A. , boston, more resources go into the police, more action to tackle crime. But now it seems to almost be the polar opposite. How do you square that circle of the cost basis . William in the city of new york, the police force was enlarged by 5000 School Safety officers. They put it out of the better managed police department. Summarilyic agencies, very poorly managed. York, the police were thought to be the best and edged agencies in sit the best managed agencies in city government. Andany organizations failed when they failed, they tended to dump it on the police department. It is effectively taking away what was given to the police years ago. Goes, thee how this transfer of responsibilities, whether the agencies are effective in taking care of them. Isther thing they talk about cutting overtime. Lets face it, in the midst of what is happening in the last three weeks, no city is not going to put police out to deal with demonstrations, whether they are orderly or not. Any time they cut Police Overtime budgets, that is basically one of the shell games. Lets face it, what we are talking about here is reform. A lot of reform is necessary, needed. But it is going to be costly. The idea of defunding the police. Do you want to reduce training instead of increasing training . The thing i am most concerned about is the ability to hang onto the officers that we have as well as higher new officers. A minority at this time who would want to join a police force. If you are a minority, essentially you will be called an uncle tom if you are an africanamerican. All of the stress on Police Departments, i wonder and worry where policing will be in the next several years. Taylor it is interesting that some congressman, congresswoman have been saying that the trump executive order has the right frame of mind but does not go far enough. To bannt specific calls different message. Is that something that can be realistically enforced . Something that could be embraced here as we talk about navy reducing some of the violent tactics that are used . William the elephant in the room and american policing is that there are 18,000 police forces. 50 different states and the federal government. There are no National Standards for what policing does. The issue you just raised about show colds. The president has his perspective, congressmen and congresswoman have their perspective. The governors have theirs. The 18,000 entities that manage Police Departments have theirs. How we get all of these people isone place, is it criminal, it administrative . This is part of a debate that will be undertaken. A chokehold is something that needs to be carefully looked at, described, and National Standards would come into play so that everyone in those 18,000 Police Departments has to play by the same rules. Gets veryan public confused when they see in one state a Police Officer who uses force its fired on the same day uses it, in another state it may take years. What they dont understand, every one of those 18,000 Police Departments operates under different rules. That is the confusion that exists today. Caroline confusion that we hope we can sift through and clarity can be brought. William hopefully we all end up looking through the same pane of glass and get these issues resolved. Because they do need to be resolved. Caroline bill brown, formally bill bratton, formerly nypd Police Commissioner. Coming up President Trump is considering a monster investment in u. S. Info structure. This is bloomberg. Caroline President Trumps team, we understand, is weighing 1 trillion for infrastructure to help spur the economy. Taylor believe it or not, it is not just today, this has been a conversation we have been discussing for four years. Pretty much ever since President Trump was elect it, we have been talking about these infrastructure plans. Screen,op part of the infrastructure bond index getting a big boost. On the bottom of the screen, a different picture. Global infrastructure index has been lagging the msci. In this case, it seems to be the u. S. And bonds that are driving the story. I want to bring in bloomberg reporter josh wingrove. Devils are in the details. Bridges, 5g, what do you think . Josh it sounds like it will be a mix of it but it is very much in flux. That law was 300 billion over five years. Democrats want to ratchet it up to another 500 billion. Is it over five, is it over 10 years as his budget proposed four months or so ago when the economy was on mor