Economic front. P equities, that is a lie, calculated it. He said after 10 different quarters of gains in the s p was always followed up another 5 to 10 gain in the next quarter. Having off the strong secondquarter boats well is well. R bodes positive quarters could still lie ahead. Romaine referring to pd, one of the many people behind the scenes who keeps this program looking smart and feeling smart. Eaton vance codirector still with us. Thank you for being patient. Talk to me about volatility. We have seen the vix come down from the highs. It is not back down to precovid19 levels, but definitely there is a lot of calm in markets i think would be an encouraging sign. Absolutely. We started the year only looked at the vix, someone called it we began as a teenager and it quickly began to be over 80 over a short time. We are looking at this 30 level, that is good because it bodes well for the sentiment and calmer markets and individual idiosyncratic stories. That being said, i think there is a ton of dispersant, of sion, the market is down 3 . The average stock is down 11 . The dispersion in returns is relevant. For those looking again to get back into the market, i think there are a lot of opportunities being selective where you are leaning in. Caroline when you talk about those looking to come back into the market, there has been plenty of discussion on how much cash can be put to work particularly from, dare i use the term, boomers. Not millennials, not retail investors, but people waiting to put their money to work. Do you see that . Tana it is interesting. Equities have gotten a bad rap for many years. But i will at the volatility of the returns, they are stellar. Over the past three and five years, like clockwork, the s p has returned over 10 per annum with volatility that has been somewhat normal. Wer the past year obviously have seen that spike. For those timing the market, it is a difficult thing to do. We all want to be tactical. It is easy to get out and you dont know when to get back in. Dollar cost averaging is a good methodology to seek exposure. I say when you look at the spreads between what has lagged and what has done well, growth has outperformed volume. For folks looking for a rotation just because something has outperformed by a significant margin, i would be leery of that. Thingsre a couple of that have to come into the forefront. That is legitimacy of the macroeconomic picture getting better. We are still in the murky environment. Growth is still in the lead for the reasons we have talked about which is there is not enough growth to go around. I would seek out that growth at a reasonable price. Paying of for growth but not up for growth but not too much. Learning opportunities. Great to have you. Do come back. Bell. S it for the closing what is what did you miss is up next. Why our next guest says tomorrows jobs report is like looking in the rearview muir. This is bloomberg. Caroline im caroline hyde. Taylor i am taylor riggs. Romaine i am romaine bostick. Caroline the nasdaq marching higher, almost up a percent. Offdow jones just lagging,. 3 . Postponedity reopening indoor downing indoor dining. Arizona cases surging. Pfizers hopes for Early Vaccine trial. Bracing for the jobs report, looking to take lower for the last month but provide a messy picture. Lisa cook from Michigan StateUniversity Joins us with her forecast. That and more coming up. We have got to get over to taylor to take us through how the vaccine stocks performed today. Taylor virus versus vaccine and it looks like vaccine was tilting the scale more in its favor as we battle the virus. Stocks we are watching, pfizer bio in tech promising early data for their vaccine trials. It might look like we have vaccine perhaps by january. Patients were able to produce antibodies and safer patients who received two doses of the vaccine. I want to bring in jennifer, the senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins center for health security. I know it is early days and data, but does does any of the vaccine headlines that are coming out start to give you hope . Hope we will do the science to enable a vaccine that will work. If we find one, how quickly will we be able to produce it at the scale we need to affect the epidemic we are dealing with . I am cautious and think we should not count as a vaccine by the end of the year. On a vaccine by the end of the year. Romaine not the Silver Bullet everyone expects. It is a madhouse on the streets with the bars and restaurants serving on the sidewalk. Data regardingf how people are moving around and interacting with each other and whether there are correlations we can draw from that data with regard to what we can expect and covid19 cases. Jennifer we are seeing some alarming trends. More than half of states are seeing an uptick in cases and that is heading in the wrong direction. We want to see case numbers stabilizing or decreasing. Tough heading into the late summer months and adding to the mix influenza in the fall. You have seen it in your own lives, the fatigue about complying with social distancing measures and people want to get out and about. Nothing has changed. The virus is still out there and we are susceptible to becoming sick and we could become severely ill. It is important we continue to maintain our distance from others and avoid places where we are likely to contract the virus. Outdoor spaces are thought to be safer. Outdoor dining is preferable to indoor bars. But people have to keep in mind the need to maintain physical space and to limit exposure as much as possible. What we have seen in a number of state is when they relax measures, and the businesses allow people to come back to interacting and socializing in these settings, we see a growth in cases. Now a number of states are having to close restaurants and bars once again which is unfortunate. Caroline i was talking to the ceo of dow earlier. He said there is a microcosm of a picture what happened globally speaking and they have not had a single case among the asian workforce. He put this down to the fact that there is a cultural focus where they where masks, they wear masks. Talking about the politicization of masks or no masks, but from a scientific point of view, is it helping . Jennifer it is important for us to recognize we have a role to play here and individual choices can have a big impact on the trajectory. If we choose to maintain distance and wearing a mask is one way to put distance between us and others and it could prevent us from expelling infectious droplets that could get onto others. If we take those measures, we would expect to see less transmission than we would otherwise. In respect to Asian Countries not only are masks, use practice and people are used to the feeling of wearing a mask and the idea of wearing a mask when one is sick is routine, that is important. But some countries are not so far away from another coronavirus epidemic like sars. Having seen the impact that a deadly coronavirus can have on society primes people to be haps more concerned about this virus in a way people who have not had to live through Something Like that and dont know someone personally who has gotten sick and is personalized, they might not take the virus as seriously as other people do. Romaine make your own cocktails, do whatever. In thise another spike country, are we prepared to handle it, the health care system, in a way that would be better than how it was handled prior . Jennifer unfortunately, looking at arizona and texas, there is warning signs that makes me worried we are heading back where we started. We have learned a little bit about the virus we did not know back in march, maybe tricks in terms of treating it, but there are too many people for the hospitals who handle, that will have deadly outcomes. We should very much take this seriously and try to avert the situation. I am interested in the having another lockdown and people hold power to that. Do our parts now to make sure the virus does not spiraled out of control like it did in the spring. Romaine the senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins center for security. Now a programming note. Join bloomberg for our broadcast of the boston fireworks. Salute to our heroes, it will carry on the orchestras fourth of july tradition but be from the comfort of your own homes. 8 00 p. M. Eastern time july 4 bloomberg television, Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg. Com. We will be back. What i said to the Associated Press was no comment. That is the same thing i will say today. We are embroiled in litigation over whether i complied with the requirements of the prepublication review process. I think i did. I did not write this book with intention of classified information. I dont think he wants to suppress the book because of foreign governments reading it. He doesnt want the American People to read it. Afghanistan and leases around the world, the current controversy, i could have written about in the book if i did not face these other difficulties. Susan rice, the second Obama National security advisor, writes today in the New York Times, that if she had information like that being reported in the papers, whether it was totally verified or not, she would have gone into the oval office to tell president obama. Without getting into what i knew or did not know, i agree with susan rice. That is what the National Security advisor should do. There are not two categories of intelligence, verified over here and not over there. Intelligence invariably is placed along a spectrum and the community understands this. They have high confidence in some, medium confidence, low confidence. People will have to judge and different agencies will disagree. There is not a block of granite to show to the president that is verified intelligence. There is a range. You deal with uncertainty. That is part of the job. Ricei looked at the susan essay and the one by the on pennetta. I found them extraordinary in their heat. How do you recommend President Trump extricate himself from this now in particular how he addresses the military at the pentagon . I cant advise how to get out of a mess he has created. He has told three different stories whether he was briefed, whether he was told it was fake, whether it is fake news by the New York Times, a whole range of things. His advisors are contradicting themselves. It is another day at the office. Every day is a new day, every story is a new story. Yesterday was interesting but not dictating what you say today. What it tells the russians are is that we are in disarray this kind of provocation not just in afghanistan but other places around the world. On this intelligence, is there anything like why this would be put in the briefing not followed up in person with the president himself . I dont want to comment on the specific story and its intelligence implications for the reason i said a minute ago. But donald trump does not consume intelligence the way you would expect a president to do so. Everybody is entitled to gather information in their own personal style. Ronald reagan had his style. George hw bush had his. I am not saying one is wrong. The presentation to the president has to take that into account. So does the president read lengthy briefing papers, does he get it by movies and that sort of thing the question from donald four donald trump is whether he gets it at all. I think he is uninterested in learning. Facts that are on convenient for him dont stick, despite repeated tellings. So can he say he was never briefed on it or he thinks it is fake and get away with it . We will see. Maybe he will. National former u. S. Security advisor john bolton. We will talk about how the pandemic has expanded the push towards digital existence, as people try to become more efficient while working from home. Mercedes with a new deal with ibm to push to the ibm public cloud. How much faster is Cloud Adoption the coming . Becoming . Wonderful to have you with us, howard. Who tookfrom the man the reins at ibm, talking about how Everybody Needs to understand ibms forces of competitive advantage. How does the daimler deal make evidence of your advantage . The point around the acceleration because of covid we are seeing more Companies Come to us to digitize their business processes. From the cloud perspective, companies were moving applications to experiment what the cloud was. That did not give any real benefit. In the case of mercedes, we have helped them accelerate to the market but also improvise the security needs on the platforms. That is a thing ibm can do unlike any other Cloud Service product. We are seeing a wealth of vendor other industries coming to us to improve their experience. It is recognition it is important to have a good experience for your customers of of every thing else, even more than policy in the marketplace. Tos is allowing us differentiate ourselves. Caroline you want to be the means to connect different providers. You have come to the realization that not one company whether through acquisitions or previous relationships wont have one out one cloud provider, perhaps up to 10. You want to be the interaction between all of that. How are you setting your store having been in his this for two months . In business for two months . Important fort is any company to do that. It is important for any cloud provider to be knowledgeable that you are one amongst others. The information you have will be relevant for different business prices processes. We have something we acquired last year that is developed by an open Source Community of developers to help customers get that security to recognize customers want to buy from multiple cloud providers and we set out to operate in that. Caroline how are you ensuring that red hat under your leadership keeps its nimbleness, entrepreneurship and innovation . It is your and by different developers. We keep it as a separate entity entity tourther preserve that. We also ensure we have Cloud Service providers. We dont see the other csbs as competition but partners. Perhaps a Silver Lining to what is a huge cloud of the pandemic, one you have had to navigate, joining two months ago but not able to sit in the room with your colleagues. Talk about how this pandemic is driving the thirst for efficiency. Are you seeing a pickup in demand or acceleration . Yes, with the equity prices and share prices for companies, or the ability to interact in a seamless fashion, they are driving the situation. Companies that have got more the analog style, they need to think about how they complement that and improving business processes. Looking at those business processes and making them cloud native so we can improve the experience. Caroline it is a sad fact that Many Companies are having to slim down, look at their cost base, laying off. I know this is something ibm has had to navigate. Is this something your department cloud is able to avoid . The amount of demand we are having means we get more specialist engineers, people to be in the functions. This is an area where we are not as effective as the broader industry. Caroline as you look towards the Growth Potential in the u. S. And the world, you are talking about how you are able to reach across many time zones in the world in which we now live and the zoom calls. What do you think globally in terms of pickup . How do you experience and hope for the rebound . Moving erience is whereas it would take years. The compliance is very real. People understand this is a business imperative to be digital, therefore it is getting the counterbalance between the two. That speaks strongly to the assets we have at ibm because we understand the missioncritical workloads that are secure, the digital is perfected is protected. Caroline great to have some time with you. Two months into the job as ibm senior vice president. From new york, this is bloomberg. Romaine welcome back. Jobs friday going to be jobs thursday because of the fourth of july observance in the u. S. There will be a lot to unpack tomorrow morning. Lisa cook is a Department Professor professor in the department of economics at Michigan State university. She also served with president obama. Thank you for being here. Lets talk about the Broad Strokes we will get. The economists we have surveyed at bloomberg are expecting the monthly jobs data and the weekly unemployment data claims number to show more improvement, keeping up with the trent we have seen the past trend we have seen the past couple of weeks and months. I am curious what you think with longerterm trends and the reinstitution of jobs we have lost, if it is on a clear upward trajectory. Lisa thank you for having me. Thinking is along the lines of most economists. That there will be more jobs. There is a question of how many more jobs and this report will the report onrom july because we will not have seen the stop and start of reopening. I think it bodes well for the number of jobs being created. I think the Unemployment Rate should be lower. That would be still historically high. I dont know how that is going to go and how much more information we will have about the classification issue at the bureau of labor statistics. I think that is the problem they are working on. If there is an improvement in the quality of data, we will see a drop in any case. Caroline this classification has thrown off many economists, a huge beat as many economists got the numbers entirely wrong. What we did see was real to virgins between what is happening in terms of ethnicity we are seeing the numbers improved for hispanics and whites, but africanamerican numbers ticked higher. It was not improving. Are you expecting some rectification in this month . Romaine i am not lisa i am not sure. It improved for black men but not black women. Because they are on the front lines of many of these jobs, they have caregiving responsibilities, there are jobs that require caregiving responsibilities and those have not returned and it is questionable whether some of these jobs will ever return. I think that may be sticky. There is another problem black women face and that is systemic racism. They are typically the last hired and the first fired. I think we might not see the kind of pickup for them we have