Hong kong are extraordinary, and the Prime Minister says he will take many citizens into the united kingdom. Is that right . Than 3absolutely, more million potentially hong kong citizens are being allowed citizenship in the united kingdom. Extraordinary developments in hong kong. Not a lot of clarity and it is difficult to see where the risks actually lie. Whether it is easy to abuse or difficult to apply. Tom i agree with you, strongly. I think there has been an getting totion of their friday morning, of getting into the weekend and the experience of each and every day. Our team in hong kong is working on that. Working on that 24 7. Now with our continued reports, our first word news, in new york city, here is ritika gupta. Ritika for the first time, u. S. Daily coronavirus cases rose above 50,000. There were increases in big states including texas, florida and california. California halted more reopenings as did new york city. Becoming is increasingly a disease of the young. Todays monthly u. S. Jobs report is likely to be a mess, employment claims none of limit supposed to the trend may not be immediately clear because of the problems dealing with misclassification of out of of work americans as employed. The house has taken aim at the new National Security law china imposed on hong kong. Lawmakers passed a bill onnimously placing sanctions chinese officials involved in the crackdown. It is similar to a measure passed by the senate last week. If the Senate Approves the house bill, President Trump is expected to sign it into law. The british economy is gearing up for what is being called that is the day the u. K. Reopens its pubs, restaurants and hotels. Both the government and businesses are counting on big boosts on the path to recovery. They said there is Economic Activity returning faster than they had expected. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. I am ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Nejra and tom . Tom we appreciate it. Futures are up. Vix under 28. Really showing an extraordinary run. Look carefully of the vix this morning. The point figure chart is really optimistic. We will see what the vix does again at the 28 level. Nejra your right to make that distinction between the optimism equities and what we are seeing in other parts of the market. It is the cyclical sectors that outperform as well. The 10 year yield is steady. Nasdaq futures point to a higher open. A bit of dollar weakness coming through. A lot of it being driven by optimism around vaccine trials m pfizer and bio rentech bioentech. See. Interesting to this is a wonderful conversation. We will take a little time to introduce professor bauder. Theory and had a there was a way they did economics at yale university. It was different than harvard, efferent in cambridge. It was different than chicago, distinctively different than the university of chicago. The heart and soul of that was a guy named art oaken. Aboutnged how we think economy and shock, particularly its effect on unemployment. We are thrilled that professor bauder of Yell University could join us this morning. Lem butler, does the siri does the theories of macroeconomics, do they work under the shock we have had . Work, once we get sufficiently, deeply into unprecedented covid deep shock. Shock thathe kind of emphasized. It is not caused by financial crunch or uncertainty. It is caused by a medical emergency. It indirectly affects feeds back to the economy. [indiscernible] numbers the u. S. Is seeing in terms of new covid a second wave will provide a nonopen downward impulse. Tom professor buiter, what is so important here is the realization of all of our viewers and listeners that we are at the zero bound. We are thrilled to have Willem Buiter for you. What is interesting is we are here. Professor buiter, we have been talking about this for years and we are finally at an extended zero bound. What does that mean for society . Forget about the economics. What is the effect of that on the Greater Society . Interestave rates. Nominal policy rates are too high. [indiscernible] the bank of england, the bank of japan. We are not going more deeply negative in order to make Monetary Policy and effective weapon again. An effective weapon again. Nejra to build on toms point about the impact on society, we are looking ahead to a second positive month in terms of payrolls but we are expecting toe of the fiscal stimulus start being pulled away in the autumn. How bad is the u. S. Labor market going to look into the end of the year . First, we are expecting something of a second wave continuing continuation of the first wave in the united will both through lockdowns and private cautionary behavior hurts employment. Then of course the number of [indiscernible] which is entirely inappropriate. A depression on the conventional unemployment broadlet alone on the Unemployment Rate. [indiscernible] tom professor buiter. Thank you so much for joining us. Too short of a visit, especially on the legacy of all of this theory and how you fall into the shock of this economy. Lets remember the Unemployment Rate has a 21 level and with adjustments last month, those revisions and what we will see now in the misclassification debate, those numbers possibly could be much higher. We are going to move this conversation forward. Joe weisenthal speaking with paul krugman. We will have some of that conversation from last evening and then we drive forward to jobs day and Jonathan Ferro picks up the pieces at the white house with lawrence kudlow. This is bloomberg. Tom bloomberg surveillance. Good morning. Nejra cehic in london for francine lacqua. I am tom keene in new york. It feels like a friday in new york with the jobs report. Frankly a lot of other data as well, coming out today. We will have a much better look at the American Economy by 12 00 noon today. Willem buiter joining us with his work with citigroup. Then we turn to a different style of macroeconomics. Has been a careful student of the domestic economy with some controversies i might say, writing for the New York Times as well as Academic Services over the last number of years. Here on the present state of america is paul krugman. Paul we are in big trouble. Back about a month and a half ago, i was laying out the bad scenario. It was clear we were going to have a couple good months of recovery. There was a lot of pentup demand for people werent allowed to do. The bad scenario was that we would have a spike in covid19 cases that would lead us to have toinstall lead us to have stall and backtrack. We are going to get a jobs report on thursday, which is going to look good but it is going to be in the rearview mirror. It is going to be a dead cat bounce, and it is clear that the highfrequency data and everything we are seeing says we just hit a wall because of the spike in cases. Lets stipulate for a second that in order to get recovery, we need to get the virus under put a veryit so effective therapy or vaccine. We know that in congress, they will revisit this question at some point in early july. What would you say are the key priorities from Economic Policy standpoint . View i have been of the that this is not like aftermath of the financial crisis where you have a wounded economy or economy that had gotten over before the crisis, so it took years to get out of it. I dont think that is happening. Say i dont think the economy as of february was fundamentally unbalanced. If the virus were under control, i think there is a lot of good reason to believe we could have a very fast recovery and wouldnt need that much in the way of policy. The problem is that appears to be a number of months off and where we are now is that we are back in the situation we were in, in march and april, and economy that is in a coma because of the virus, and so the goal of policy is to make that situation tolerable, to avoid having the depression spread and have a partially locked down economy livable which means we have a lot of programs that we put in place in march and the big concern is a lot of that stuff is going to expire in a few weeks. Joe are you surprised, arguably by the effectiveness of the programs . We see Household Income actually up between april and may, relative to the extraordinary collapse in unemployment. You cant look too much of the stock market, but it looks like buoyant forasonably some consumer companies, not what you would expect during a period of mass unemployment. First of all, i was surprised by what they passed. The cares act was highly imperfect, but by the standards of how we dealt with previous downturns, it was damn good. Unemployment benefits were a huge lifeline. Most of the unemployed ended up with more income, which in turn contained the spillover. We shut down part of the economy and one of the great concerns was shutting that down would lead to a secondary round of unemployment but we provided so much aid that that didnt happen. Nejra nobel prizewinning economist paul krugman in a wideranging conversation with our joe weisenthal. Coming up, ray dalio joins Erik Schatzker for a virtual conversation on the economic recovery and opportunities post kevin need post covered post covid19. This is bloomberg. Nejra i am nejra cehic in london with tom keene in new york. Lets go to hong kong where we are joined by bloombergs senior asian government reporter. Expect protests in hong kong over the weekend . I think yeah. I think people are shrugging off some of the opposition to the new law. We saw protests on wednesday but we havent seen any since then. There is a lot of aggressive proactive policing taking place in hong kong these days. The moderates that swelled those protests we saw last year, are afraid to come out at the moment. It is too early to say if we will see protests over the weekend. There have been scattered smaller protests but nothing like the big ones we saw last year. Tom it may be too early to ask this question but you are so good at it i will ask anyway. Changedibe of hong kong with these actions . That is a good question. I think definitely, there is a chill over the Democracy Movement in hong kong, among a lot of ordinary people. Out,e law was being rolled they pushed out the legislation at 11 00 on tuesday night, almost the middle of the night. People were deleting twitter accounts, people were scrubbing whatsapp chats. People in some of the groups i was in were saying is it ok to even be doing this right now . People are afraid and the vagueness of these laws which replicate the vagueness of similar laws on the mainland like stealing state secrets, that sort of thing, they can be applied to anyone and in a lot of different situations. People are very worried. On wednesday, we saw people being arrested for simply having a banner that says hong kong independence. A few days ago, that wasnt an arrestable offense, and today it is. Things are changing quite quickly and that is scaring a lot of people. Tom great reporting. We will have much more on this through the day and through friday, tomorrow and in the weekend as well. Is so much to talk about on this thursday. Wide set of Economic Data is starting off at 8 30 in the united states. Claims six times higher than normal, some would say. The American Labor economy it may be a good number but it is in the rearview mirror. We will try to drive the conversation forward for you. Worldwide, this is bloomberg. W . W . Uhiono ritika this is bloomberg surveillance. I am ritika gupta. Areident trump says masks good, but questions whether americans should be made to wear them, even with coronavirus cases spiking across the u. S. He said he would wear the mask if you were in a quote, tight situation with people. Democratic challenger joe biden for wearing a mask. Raised President Trump. The fallght in for Second Quarter for the full Second Quarter. That tops the president and the republicans in the same period. It is the second straight month that bidens fundraisers came out on top. The house has joined the senate in rejecting President Trumps defense of naming military bases after confederate generals. Committee took similar action earlier this week. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Tom and nejra. Am he is a nationalist, disciple of Barry Goldwater from long ago and far away, that kind of republican. Some would say that john bolton is an americanist. We do know he is an author of over 700 page book, over 500 pages, it has made a huge splash. We spoke to ambassador bolton yesterday. Here he is on the future of republican politics. John i think it is difficult, ae way these past three and half, four years have evolved, for them to be as independent as i think many of them want. A lot of people who were never republicany the leadership is complicit. The fact is, nobody wants to be the subject of a donald trump two minutes hate on twitter. I think we will have to have within the Republican Party, a very significant conversation after november 3, especially if trump loses, which is at least a about sibility, at about the future of the party. I want to make it clear that donald trump does not represent conservative philosophy. He does not represent the Republican Party. He is an anomaly, and i am not going to vote for him for the first time in my adult life, i am not going to vote vote for the republican president or nominee because i dont think he is true to our philosophy. He is true to donald trump alone. To breakador, i want in because the polls contradict that. The polls show that the Republican Party by and large as overwhelming support for President Trump, and that is the reason why Republican Leadership wed tore often than not he President Trumps goals. What makes you think the Republican Party is different . John because Public Opinion polls take a limited picture based on a limited question. Do you support donald trump over the democrats . What i am talking about is the larger issue of what the party actually believes in, and in my conversations across the country for an extended time, i dont doubt that in this debate, i think the trump view will be rejected. Part of ourortunate political dialogue today, that it is all torqued around donald trump. Do you support trump or oppose trump . It is one of the things we need to correct. We will have to correct it sooner or later. We may be able to correct it shortly after the november election. It may take four years after that. Tom john bolton, two more questions about your interesting book. Damning. E details were would any of this have happened, russians and bounties to the taliban to go after marines. Would any of this have happened if mr. Trump had had his three generals in the same room . Was the great Tipping Point for the administration when those three generals walked out the door . John i dont think so at all. I was in the room with him a lot of times as well. He doesnt listen well. He doesnt absorb things. Former secretary of state George Schultz once said the importance of listening is always underestimated. Even Lyndon Johnson said when im talking, i dont learn anything. Those are points donald trump doesnt understand. We all made our mistakes. I certainly made my share. I tried to lay out some of them in the book. I think things could have been done better. I make that argument in the book. Ultimately, trump is trump. That is the problem. This is not somebody who thinks in policy terms. Nostrum aegean afghanistan. We havent had a strategy in afghanistan with respect to russia or china or north korea. The list is long. Withambassador bolton, bloomberg surveillance yesterday. Viewng us now, a canadian as he watches the american political system. What we do here best is get to the next day, forget about bolton, that is ancient history. The Seniors Today is leadership of the ministry of branch. They will be briefed on russia, the taliban and marines killed in afghanistan. What do you look for . Josh one of the questions that has not been answered is whether this reached the president s daily brief. There are questions about how closely he reads those. They say he was not briefed in person but it emerged yesterday that it was a decision by a career official as opposed to a political appointee, to do that. They are saying we are playing the straight, it was a career person that called the strike and said this was not verified and we are not winter brief the president on this. Something this explosive should have been brought to the president ial level. Administration said flatly yesterday, we did everything right and by the book and now that this has been leaked, it has muddied the waters and getting to the bottom of it is going to be impossible. Josh, a completely unfair question, is this a flap, a kerfuffle . Or is this the real deal of a scandal . Think i dont think it is a flap, i also am not sure that we have all the facts yet. I dont want to jump to any conclusions. For instance, the administration took it seriously enough. They have been coming up with a menu of stuff that donald trump could do if it was confirmed. They are saying they are arguing that saying they are taking it lightly is unfair. Is, hese the flipside has a long history of not taking a particularly harsh tone in meetings with leaders that would typically be adversaries of the united states. That includes vladimir putin. That also includes chinas president. There is a lot of fire under the smoke, that was here before we knew about it. The administration themselves are saying this was intelligen