You just heard steven major of hsbc talk about the recovery that is out there, and it is a mystery. Already come our conversations this morning have really showed the massive ambiguity we have going into 8 30 this morning, and then jons conversation with Lawrence Kudlow near the 10 00 hour as well. It is an extraordinary day. An up market, and some stasis in the bond market as well. But we have said this all morning. It is not just about the payrolls report for the Establishment Survey. It is about the slew of Economic Data we get out today. Jonathan it is also not just about the data. It is also about the reaction to it. How will the administration respond to the bounce in the Economic Data, and how will it shape the fiscal effort in the month of july, when clearly, more help is needed . My personal worry is not that they dont something. I think for many people, including the likes of pimco, it is a matter of when, and not if. But do they move away from offsetting the income shock towards incentivizing rehiring . Do you get do they get the mix of the policy, nation wrong . Tom we get into mass, and we go to our bloomberg terminals, and it all gets impersonal. The fact is the claims statistic today, i will say it is five or six times larger than normal. We forget the scope and scale of where we are. Lisa what sums this up was a chart from torsten slok showing that half of the American Workforce is out of a job currently. You can just see the Participation Rate plummeting. There is a question, going to Betsey Stevensons point, how permanent will this be. How do we look at the messy data to get some inclination towards the end of the year . Tom before we get to tom porcelli, jon, i want one more thought from you. When we look from the data and have to fold it into market reaction, why are stocks going up if we are so miserable . Jonathan i dont have the answer to that when this morning, but over the last few months, i think the direction of travel matters. Quite clearly in the month of june, a real tugofwar has emerged. I think we got to separate amps in this market, those that believe we will continue to see positive urban that will drive equities higher, and those on the others that are more certain about the low capacity economic for an extended time weighing on Risk Appetite. That is the tugofwar in this risk market playing out over the last several weeks. A surveillance miracle, we got through the previous conversation without mentioning a vshaped. We break that rule now with tom porcelli of rbc capital. I know it is not a vshaped recovery. What is it . Well, weve got some technical difficulties. We will pick it up here as we are 25 minutes away from the. Lisa, i look at the idea of the alphabet soup, and you know i have never been a fan of it, even back to the days of green shoots area i think we have really given up on the alphabet soup, havent we . Lisa i dont know about that. I was reading a story in the wall street journal citing a survey that called the shape of the recovery a reverse radical shape. They were talking about a e a reverse square root shape. [laughter] tom this is so important because i will go to governor bailey, literally two days on the job at the bank of england and talking about his vshaped model coming out of the bank of england. In the united kingdom, have they amended the vshaped certitude at the bank of england . Jonathan let me just put the vshaped talk well and truly to bed. When you open an economy that has been shut down, the bounce will look like a v, but lets get back to what steven major said in the opening of our program. The bounce is not a recovery. Dont model this for the whole recovery. You will get initial snapback and then start to see some plateauing. We have seen quite clearly across many states in the United States of america the limits of normalization. If it is not the governors pulling back on reopening, pausing or reversing, it is business is pulling back selves. We saw that with apple, we side with mcdonalds, with the walt disney company. Ompany after company regardless of what governments do, if businesses do not think it is safe for consumers to come back and walk into their stores, they will not reopen. That is the biggest challenge for a lot of people at the moment. Tom if you are just joining us, our simulcast on bloomberg television, we drive to this jobs day. James glassman scheduled to be with us, among others. All of this crescendoing threw Jon Christian doing jonsndoing through to conversation with Lawrence Kudlow. Ist i would really suggest the white house is going to have to really reform with the kudlow interview today whatever those statistics are. Lisa and thread the needle that both you and jon have been talking about. This idea that there is some distinction between the economic coverage and the message with which this nations address independent. Those are one in the same, ultimately. In the views of fed chair jay powell and treasury secretary steven mnuchin, how we address the spread of this pandemic is going to mark the economic recovery. How much are we going to hear that from the Administration Today is going to be a question. I am sure jon will hammer on that, and i am sure that President Trump signal his view on that later on today as well. Tom we will reattach right now with tom porcelli of rbc capital markets. What would you expect to see at a full and 30 c at 8 30, the jobs report . Or is it the claims number you will Pay Attention to . Tom p we get those on the same day, which is very unusual we really need to Pay Attention to both. I think the risk is that you see a much firmer payroll report than is expect it right now. You could see upwards of 8 million jobs gained in the current month. Again, that is very consistent with the data we have seen. You could see claims have improved over the weeks. But over the second half of june , you really started to see a slowing. I think the rise in cases is obviously starting to scare people. So the homes data has really started to plane out a little bit. You can see that in some of the other data as well, whether it is opentable reservations, you see other data start to stabilize here on the back of what is fear around the rise in cases. Particularly with regard to the recovery, the letters and how you want to define it, we have been pretty clear on this. If a vshaped recovery is a simple act of one quarter declining by a lot and the next quarter increasing by a lot, you will see a vshaped recovery. But i dont think that is the right way of defining recovery. The right way of defining recovery is how long does it take to get back to the precovid19 levels of output. In that regard, that is going to take well into 2021. I think it just depends on how you want to define recovery. But i think the right way is how long does it take active recovered level does it take to get back to precovid levels. Jonathan you talked about the inkling of a plateauing in consumer metrics. I think we will i think what we all need to try to do is look at the data you are looking at. Can you give us a better picture of the data points we need to establish where this economy is . Tom p as we have talked about a couple of times, i think it is really about alternative data right now. Alternative data is now essentially becoming mainstream data, but it is not the standard stuff, the Unemployment Rate and payroll report. They are not giving you a great read on where we just came from. I think themes like the homebased data is incredibly helpful. There is still a free element they are providing out there, although apparently you have to pay now to get the livestock area to get the life stuff. The daily treasury statement, this has been out there forever. But if you look at some of the tax withholding data, that is going to be really helpful. The opentable data, apple mobility. Theres a host of different data points out there that i think anyone, if they wanted to, they could easily find it. Google trends is another example. Define any search function you want and see how people are searching. Theres a wealth of information leading us to conclude that june was, for the most part, it really good month, but you are now starting to see some slowing. Lisa given the fact that we are seeing slowing, what is your revised expectation for unemployment at your end, and for how or whether we are going to get a fiscal response commencement with Market Expectations . Hasntour view really changed on fiscal response or the end limit rate. We still expect the Unemployment Rate by 8 around the end of the rateor so unemployment around 8 by the end of the year or so. Even if we are right and you see a plus 8 million for today, the Unemployment Rate is probably going to still remain pretty elevated, and that is because of the pandemic unemployment assistance. We are not seeing that really move all that much, so that is one of these elements where you could see it show up in the household part of the survey, not the establishment part of the survey. Pua will not be captured by the establishment, but it will be captured by household. So in the near term, you will see a very sticky Unemployment Rate. We expect it will be around 14 for the coming couple of months, but by the end of the year, would you expect in the crease we do expect a decrease down to about 8 . It is not just about covid19. It is about the elections as well. So i think the Unemployment Rate will remain elevated relative to where we just come from. Jonathan just a snapshot of the low visibility world we live in now. Tom, my best to you and yours at rbc. Of 24 on the s p 500, advancing 0. 8 . 18 minutes away from the payrolls report. From new york city, this is bloomberg. Ritika with the first word news, im ritika gupta. U. S. Daily coronavirus cases rose above 50,000. There were increases in states including texas, florida and california. California halted more reopenings. So did new york city. Meanwhile, the virus is increasingly becoming a disease of the young. In florida, the median age of those infect 37, down from 65 in march. Gun demand is off the charts. Junejumps to a record in that has gun makers rising. Gun shop owners predicts sales will continue to be strong as recent protests continue and joe biden in the polls over President Trump. Biden supports more gun control laws. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Its going to look good, but it is going to be in the rearview mirror. It is clear that the highfrequency data and everything we are seeing says we just hit a wall because of the spike in cases in the sunbelt. Jonathan weighing in on the recovery we have seen so far, and whether it is a head fake for what is still to come. Many people sharing that view, the consensus being you get that bounce, but the recovery will be a whole harder after the summer. City on this payrolls thursday, alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Elevated, up 24 points on the s p. We advance around 0. 7 . Tom k are marching orders for our team was to get a really smart set of voices with a broad section of takes on economics, finance, investment. We have done that, moving from Ellen Zentner to Betsey Stevenson and tom porcelli, and now joining us is james glassman. He has a wonderful sense of the fabric of our economy from sea to shining sea. You have been on the road. You have experienced the pandemic airplanes. What are you hearing from j. P. Morgan plants . James from j. P. Morgan clients . James it is all over the map. This challenges ahead, but i think we have done a good job. We had 40 Million People who had no job to go to in march and april, Small Businesses. Program that the ppp did a great job helping businesses get a lot of those people back on the payrolls, so i think the Financial Support we are getting from a lot of what congress is doing is helping throw out lifelines for people. There is a big challenge for the next six months as you try to run a bids this run a business under social distancing guidelines. I hear stories all over the map. I think it is encouraging, though. Tom this is so important, and jon ferro and lisa have been all over this today, the urgency of fiscal stimulus as well. Do the people you talk to support 1 trillion of support . Jim i think so. Congress has authorized up to 4 trillion. The way i look at it, having the economy down about 10 from where it was, you are losing about 6 billion a day, so that tells you we have done an awful lot to try and replace the income that people are not getting. You see that in the personal income reports. Disposable income a lot, spending up a lot. Just not many places to spend until you open up the economy. Theres more work to do because a lot of folks are not getting the revenues. You cant run a restaurant with half the people you use to serve. Same thing for municipalities. The folks i have talked to, d. C. , florida, nashville, california, they are losing revenue from the lack of tourism. It is very difficult for them to figure out what to do. The thing we know is that there is going to be a medical answer sometime in the near future. My guess is congress is working hard to try to figure out how to give people lifelines that needed. You cant get everybody at first, but i think it did a great job of focusing on the people that were on the front lines. The folks who work at Small Businesses, sports venues, knewstras, those guys, you if they were not allowed to go there are notty, going to be jobs. And i think washington, focused on with the first order of business was, it has been help. Lisa i still picture you in your vw van, talking to everybody and getting a feel about the walkabout economics, as Danny Blanchflower of dartmouth calls it. There will be a medical answer. What will be the psychological effect on households in terms of saving, in terms of spending habits on the other . Onthe others of this . The others of this . On the others of this . Jim i think there will be a huge sigh of relief. Younger people have felt protected, and i think once we know there is a medical answer that can protect the more vulnerable, we will be very quick to try to get back to something more normal. You see this already in the numbers. The hope that the government is giving to replace lost wages, look at what happened. There was a massive increase in savings, and then you get into may, and people are happy to go things. Do not everybody shops online. That tells me all the saving going on is not because people are nervous and frightened. It is because there arent as many places to go to. The minute we start to feel comfortable getting back to life, you are going to see everything return very quickly to something more normal. Lisa this is crucial. Are you saying that people saying that habits are going to completely change, that that is all overstated, and that things will return more to normal then people are giving credit to . Jim i dont think it is overstated. Right now, there is a lot of fear. But i think once we get a medical answer, the main fear here is if you get it, it is devastating, and a lot of people have been devastated by it. But if you feel like there is a medical answer, it will take time. But i think once we get a medical answer, we will say, well, that was a pandemic. Doing, thiswe are crisis will accelerate some things. Moving to online, virtual meetings. May be people are rethinking living in concentrated areas. But i think that will be more subtle. Look at what is going on now. You let people go to the beach, open up the bars, and everyone is trying to get to something more normal. Once the fear of the disease has passed, we will be happy to get back to life, give a few hugs, go see friends. You can tell that already, people have an instinct to do this now. Jonathan maybe what we need this morning. Tom i cant do hugs. Jonathan i cant wait, i think. Great to catch up with you this morning. The june pays roles the june payrolls report, five minutes away. Equity futures elevated 24 on the s p 500. Your estimate climbing up a little bit into this, your median estimate, 3. 23 million or your payrolls jobs report in five. Tom first thing i looked at today, the vic, the volatility the vix, the volatility index, up at 38. Isthe points figures, it extremely constructive and bullish this morning. Jonathan it tells you something about the year weve had when a vix at 30 is something constructive compared to where we were a couple of years ago on the number. From new york, up next, the june payrolls report. Alongside tom keene, together with lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. We are live on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg tv. Jonathan from new york city, this is bloomberg surveillance. We are live on bloomberg tv and Bloomberg Radio. The june payrolls report just seconds away with futures up 22 points on the s p 500. Here is mike mckee. Mike it is better than expected and for a second month in a row, the change in perp and payrolls was up 4. 8 million. As for the Unemployment Rate, it falls to 11. 1 from 13. 3 . I am just going to quickly check here and see what they say about the misclassification error. Errors and they say if everyone was properly classified, the unlimit rate would have been about one percentage point higher. We are at 11. 1 , it would have been 12. 1 . The level of mistakes are down but they are still in the data. Average weekly hours fall to 34. 5. While ondropped 1. 2 , a month over month basis, that breaks earnings down of course that number distorted by who is and who is not on payrolls at this point. Lets take a look at the other numbers. The Unemployment Rates for minorities, a big issue with black lives matter right now. Black or africanamerican unemployment falls to 15. 4 . 14. 5 fromlls to 17. 6 . Still a lot of unemployment in the minority communities. Overal